Below is our game-by-game previews on which players should be considered on your roster as well as which players you may want to stay away from.
Air Force At San Diego State
Kickoff: 7:30PM EST
Spread: SDSU -4
O/U: 50.5
Air Force
Team Expected Points: 23.25
San Diego has a top five defenses in total yards allowed. Combining a top five defense with a triple option offense where the team spreads the ball around it is a challenge to trust anyone who may have a fantasy impact. Even though there are only 5 games on this slate, we are recommending not starting anyone from Air Force just due to the lack of consistent touches for any single player.
San Diego State
Team Expected Points: 32
RB- Donnell Pumphrey $9,100
Analysis:
Donnell Pumphrey is one of the best running backs in the country. He has ran for over 100 yards in eight straight games and has scored multiple touchdowns in five of his last seven games. The challenge this week is that this will be one of the most difficult matchups that Pumphrey has on the season, as he is facing an Air Force team that is slow in pace, and has one of the best run defenses in the country.
Recommendation:
Pumphrey is a GPP play only this week, as he is in a very difficult matchup as well as the difficult price. Air Force did allow 151 yards and a touchdown to Jeremy McNichols two weeks ago, so they definitely can be susceptible to top level running backs. However, it is a difficult price to pay for a matchup that is so difficult in cash games.
Appalachian State At South Alabama
Kickoff: 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Appalachian State -18
O/U: 58
Appalachian State
Team Expected Points- 38
RB- Jalin Moore- $5,800
Analysis:
Jalin Moore is one of the most talented running backs in the country, but the only problem with it is that he is blocked by Marcus Cox from being an elite running back. However, he finally forced Appalachian State’s hand when Marcus Cox missed a game and he had 244 yards rushing against Idaho.
Recommendation:
Moore is a great GPP play this week, as while he is likely only to get 13-16 carries, he has the breakout ability to break a long run. If this game turns into a blowout, Moore could see upward of 20 carries this week.
South Alabama
Team Expected Points- 29.5
TE- Gerald Everett $3,700
Analysis:
Gerald Everett is one of the top tight ends in the nation, although he has really been struggling over the last two games. Prior to the last two games, he had scored a touchdown in seven of the team’s nine games. There have been no significant changes in the offense that would explain Everett’s recent production, so we still believe in Everett this week.
Recommendation:
Everett is a top GPP of the day at the position as he is the most likely to score a touchdown .The matchup is difficult as Appalachian State has a great defense, but South Alabama is going to have to rely on Everett to stay competitive.
Stanford At USC
Kickoff: 7:45 PM EST
Spread: Stanford -4
O/U: 58
Stanford
Team Expected Points- 31
RB- Christian McCaffrey- $8,000
Analysis:
Christian McCaffrey is set to break the all-purpose yardage record in college football which was previously set by Barry Sanders. USC has really struggled against the pass which if anything helps McCaffrey as he is going to be used more in the passing game than the run game. McCaffrey has 37 receptions this year and Stanford is going to need to lean on McCaffrey in order to
Recommendation:
At $8,000 McCaffrey is a GPP play only, as he just does not score touchdowns consistently enough in order to be trusted in the cash games. He is almost a lock to go over 100 yards, but at $8,000 he is going to need 20+ points which he won’t do unless he scores a touchdown.
QB- Kevin Hogan- $8,600
Analysis:
USC has really struggled against the pass this season compared to the run which puts a big responsibility on Kevin Hogan this week. Hogan has been largely inconsistent this year, but has come up huge in their biggest games recently as he threw for four touchdowns last week against Notre Dame, and threw for over 300 yards against Oregon with a rushing touchdown a few weeks ago.
Recommendation:
The problem here is the price, at $8,600 he is the same price as Marquise Williams who we prefer over him.
USC
Team Expected Points- 29.5
RB- Justin Davis- $5,200
Analysis:
Stanford’s defense isn’t as great as it has been in the past. They are allowing 145 rushing yards per game which includes allowing 168 yards and a touchdown last week to Josh Adams. USC’s passing offense is really struggling over the last few games as they have went to a run heavy attack. Justin Davis is going to continue to get the workload as he has 41 carries over the last two games. This should be a game where Davis is leaned on heavily this week in order to compete against Stanford.
Recommendation:
Justin Davis is the top punt play on the slate, as he is going to get 15-20 carries. The only question is whether or not he can find the end zone as he has not over the last two weeks. Davis will be under-owned due to the perception of Stanford’s defense being better than what it is, so he makes a great GPP play as well.
UNC At Clemson
Kickoff: 8:00PM EST
Spread: Clemson -4
O/U: 70
North Carolina
Team Expected Points- 33
QB- Marquise Williams- $8,600
Analysis:
Clemson has the fourth best pass defense in the nation as they only allow 160 yards per game so recommending a quarterback is going to seem a little bit crazy. What we like about Marquise Williams is his running ability which is highest upside on the day. This over/under is 70 which is the highest on this slate.
Recommendation:
Marquise Williams is a GPP play only this week, as Watson is the premium cash game option. Williams has the rushing ability that you can use
Clemson
Team Expected Points- 37
QB- Deshaun Watson- $10,900
Analysis:
This is Deshaun Watson’s time to shine this week, he is a guy who is in the premiere matchup on this slate
Recommendation:
He is the top cash game on the slate and should be used in all of your cash games. If you want to deviate in GPP’s due to his ownership it would not be an awful play.
WR- Deon Cain- $5,200
Analysis:
Deon Cain is showing why he is one of the top freshman in the country, as he has scored a touchdown in five straight games. He has been touchdown dependent though, but is one of the most athletic wide receivers in college football.
Recommendation:
It is hard to recommend a player who is so touchdown dependent, but this game should be a shootout with plenty of offense to go around. This is a game where you want to target Deon Cain especially at the price that has not caught up to what his value is. He is a great play in a GPP and can be considered in cash games due to his cheap price.
RB- Wayne Gallman- $6,200
Analysis:
North Carolina this season has allowed 208 yards rushing per game which is the second worst in the ACC this year. Wayne Gallman is finally returning from injury, and appears to be close to 100% health as he had 19 carries last week in a win over South Carolina. With North Carolina’s pass defense being very good, Clemson is going to have to rely on the running game this week to win the ACC Championship and move on to the College Football Playoff. We expect a heavy dosage of Gallman this week.
Recommendation:
Wayne Gallman is the top value running back on this slate, he can be used in both cash games and GPP’s.
Michigan State At Iowa
Kickoff: 8:00PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -3
O/U: 49
Michigan State
Team Expected Points- 27
WR- Aaron Burbridge $6,700
Analysis:
Iowa has one of the top run defenses in the country, which is going to make Connor Cook do most of the work this week in a quintessential quarterfinal to get into the playoffs. Iowa has been susceptible to the pass this year allowing 220 yards per game, which when it is matchup adjusted it is closer to 250 yards per game allowed due to their weak schedule this season. Aaron Burbridge has struggled recently, but this is largely due to Connor Cook being injured against Maryland and Ohio State, and then he rebounded nicely with 75 yards and a touchdown against Penn State. Had the game not gotten out of hand, he likely would have exceeded the 100 yard mark and is in a great opportunity to do so this week.
Recommendation:
There are very few elite wide receivers on this slate, and if we were going to pay up for one Burbridge would be our guy.
Iowa
Team Expected Points- 22
TE- George Kittle- $3,100
Analysis:
The Hawkeyes use two different tight ends and while between the twenty yard lines they are relatively the same, once they get into the red zone they love to look at George Kittle. Over his last four games he has scored three touchdowns and has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight games. Michigan State’s pass defense is much worse than their run defense which is one of the best in the country, so Kittle should continue to see some targets in the red zone.
Recommendation:
Kittle is our top punt play tight end of the day and while his upside is not as high as Hooper or Everett, his floor is just as high.
