Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Thursday Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 10-29-15, 7:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 6 games
North Carolina at Pittsburgh
Kickoff: 10-29-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: UNC -3
O/U: 54.5
North Carolina
Expected Team Total Points: 28.75
QB Marquise Williams – 8,800
Analysis: Marquise Williams is once again having a very uneven season. He had spectacular showings against Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, but face-planted against Virginia and even got benched against FCS opponent Delaware. His rushing ability is largely what gives him the ability to produce at an elite level in certain matchups. He’s twice rushed for 100 yards this season and has five rushing scores on the season.
Recommendation: The Pittsburgh defense hasn’t yet faced a quarterback with a similar skillset to Williams, so it’s unclear exactly how this matchup sets up for the UNC quarterback. He’s an ideal GPP play, as he could easily have the best day of any quarterback in this slate. However, he has three games with below 15 fantasy points this season, and his floor is also significantly lower than what we would like from a cash game play.
Pittsburgh
Expected Team Total Points: 25.75
RB Qadree Ollison – 7,100
Analysis: Ollison has solidified his role as the top running back for Pittsburgh with his work over the past month, averaging 19 carries and 89 yards in the team’s last four games. Ollison has scored in every game but one this season, and, even though he had fumble issues a few weeks ago, Pittsburgh clearly trusts him around the goal line. He now faces North Carolina’s run defense that is allowing 211.7 rush yards per game, good for 112th in the FBS. In 2014, the UNC run defense was one to target on a weekly basis and that once again appears to be the case this season.
Recommendation: We like Ollison this week in this favorable matchup. Assuming Pitt keeps this game close, we like Ollison’s chances of surpassing the 100 yard threshold and reaching pay dirt. He probably doesn’t have the upside of other running backs in this slate and is is better utilized in cash games than tournaments.
TE Scott Orndoff – 2,000
Analysis: Orndoff plays second fiddle at the tight end position for Pittsburgh to JP Holtz but he still has managed to see multiple targets in four games and has scored touchdowns in three. Pitt runs a ton of two tight end sets which results in Orndoff being on the field far often than most back-up tight ends would be. With UNC’s pass defense doing its best to take away Tyler Boyd by using their best cornerback, M.J. Stewart, on him, it’s possible that Pitt will have to look elsewhere in the passing game.
Recommendation: None of the pricier tight end options look overly appealing in this slate and we are looking to punt the position. Orndoff is one of the few minimum priced tight ends with a defined role in his offense. Buffalo’s Mason Schreck is another minimum priced tight end that should be guaranteed targets this week, but unlike Orndoff, he’s yet to score this season.
West Virginia at TCU
Kickoff: 10-29-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: TCU -14
O/U: 75
West Virginia
Expected Team Total Points: 30.5
The West Virginia players are best utilized as GPP options in this slate. Skyler Howard (8,200) has been very up and down in recent weeks. Wendell Smallwood (6,600) has been stellar, but shares touches with Rushel Shell and is just finally starting to heal up from a nagging ankle injury. Smallwood’s allotment of carries may also be lessened by the likelihood that TCU jumps out to a big early lead. Shelton Gibson is the only West Virginia receiver that can be counted on to any degree, but he is mainly a deep threat and is only seeing a shade over six targets per game.
TCU
Expected Team Total Points: 44.5
QB Trevone Boykin – 11,000
Analysis: Simply put, Boykin has been an absolute monster this season. He’s accounted for at least 330 total yards in every game this season, and he has totaled a minimum of four touchdowns in every outing with the exception of Week 1. He’s now facing a beat up West Virginia defense that lost its superstar safety, Karl Joseph, and has given up over 300 yards passing two of the past three weeks. Boykin should once again be in for a big game.
Recommendation: Boykin’s salary of 11,000 is exorbitant but he’ll undoubtedly hit value in what projects to be a shootout this week. Boykin is a great cash game option in the sense that he is a lock to put up a big score, but inserting him in your lineup really forces you to take risks at other positions. If, for instance, you are faced with the option of either building your lineup around Boykin or his number one receiver, Josh Doctson – who is also correctly priced up - we are going with Doctson, as you can easier build a more risk averse lineup around him. If you are looking for a minimum priced option to use in a GPP lineup, Coach Gary Patterson has stated that Kavontae Turpin (4,500) will play this week after suffering an injury in the team’s last game against Iowa State. Turpin is extremely explosive, but his role in the offense fluctuates week to week.
WR Josh Doctson – 9,400
Analysis: To give you an idea of just how dominant Josh Doctson has been so far this year: over TCU’s last five games, Doctson has not had less than five catches, 129 yards, and two touchdowns in any outing. He now faces West Virginia’s secondary that was just torched for 10 catches, 199 yards, and three touchdowns by the similarly dominant Corey Coleman.
Recommendation: We love Doctson as a building block this week against West Virginia. His price of 9,400 is indicative of the tremendous season he’s having, but the pricing in this slate is such that you can still build a solid lineup around him. His extremely high floor and outrageous ceiling make him a fantastic cash game option.
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan
Kickoff: 10-29-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Western Michigan -20
O/U: 67
Western Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 43.5
QB Zach Terrell – 8,200
Analysis: On paper, it looks like Eastern Michigan has a very solid pass defense, but in reality they have not faced very many competent quarterbacks, and teams have often chosen to just run the ball against their FBS worst rush defense. The last two weeks however, against Toledo and Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan’s pass defense has surrendered 640 yards and nine touchdowns. Zach Terrell and his talented receiving duo of Corey Davis and Daniel Braverman will combine to form the most fearsome passing threat that Eastern Michigan has faced so far this season.
Recommendation: Zach Terrell is one of the safer options at quarterback in this slate. He’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game this season and should have no trouble meeting that mark again this week. The only thing stopping him from having an absolutely huge day is the likelihood that this game will turn into a blowout. Still, we feel that it’s reasonable to expect Terrell to approach 300 yards passing and he makes for a fine cash game option at quarterback if you don’t want to pay up for Trevone Boykin.
WR Corey Davis – 6,000 WR Daniel Braverman – 8,200
Analysis: Corey Davis has largely played second fiddle to Daniel Braverman this season, but he’s still putting up solid numbers, accounting for 42 catches, 564 yards and five touchdowns so far in 2015. Davis caught seven passes for 113 yards last week, and scored in each of the previous two contests against MAC opponents, giving him a solid three game stretch to open conference play. The duo of Davis and Braverman has accounted for 75% of WMU’s catches and 77% of the team’s receiving yards.
Recommendation: This game is likely going to be a blowout, but the WMU wide receiver duo should play a big role in building that lead. In Western Michigan’s three blowout wins this year, Davis and Braverman have averaged 18.83 fantasy points and 27.43 fantasy points, respectively. We fully expect Davis and Braverman both to have nice games and are on board with stacking the pair in cash games. If you are going to only play one, Davis looks like the best value of any receiver in this slate, so we recommend him as a building block for all lineups.
Eastern Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 23.5
Eastern Michigan is one of the worst teams in the FBS and will undoubtedly get blown out by a vastly superior Western Michigan team. The only player worth considering from Eastern Michigan is running back Darius Jackson (7,400). Jackson has managed to perform well in most games this year, despite his team playing from behind. Considering his price point however, we feel that there is more risk and lower upside associated with him than other running backs in this slate, and don’t consider him an ideal fit for cash games.
Buffalo at Miami (OH)
Kickoff: 10-29-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Buffalo -7.5
O/U: 50.5
Buffalo
Expected Team Total Points: 29
RB Jordan Johnson – 6,800
Analysis: With starting running back Anthone Taylor sidelined with an ankle injury, Jordan Johnson got his first career start last week against Ohio. He made the most of it, rushing for 147 yards and two touchdowns. Taylor was in uniform leading up to Saturday’s game, and was considered a game-time decision. His status for this week’s game is unclear, but the matchup against Miami Ohio will present ample opportunity for whoever is carrying the ball for the Bulls. Miami Ohio is allowing 189.8 yards per game on the ground and Buffalo is averaging almost 37 carries per game this season. Last week Johnson received 28 of the team’s 34 attempts and would be a great bet to receive 25 or more carries again this week if Taylor were to sit out.
Recommendation: If Anthone Taylor were to be ruled out in advance of Thursday’s game, Jordan Johnson would make for a great option for both cash games and tournaments. Buffalo should have little trouble running ball against the weak Miami Ohio rush defense and the game plan would largely revolve around Johnson. Unfortunately, as of now there’s no word on if Taylor will play, making the situation too risky to touch. If Taylor does play, we’d expect close to a 50/50 timeshare. As of Wednesday night, Taylor is not listed on the depth chart (a bad sign for chanced of playing), but it has been announced that he will travel with the team.
Miami (OH)
Expected Team Total Points: 21.5
None of the Miami players come as recommended plays this week. The offense is generally inept and the limited offense that is generated is spread around fairly equitably. Wide receiver Sam Martin (5,500) is the one player that could go off for a decent game, as he has two 100 yard performances this year, but we’re not counting on him, or any other Redhawk this Thursday.
Texas State at Georgia Southern
Kickoff: 10-29-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia Southern -21
O/U: 68.5
Texas State
Expected Team Total Points: 23.75
We aren’t recommending anyone from Texas State in this slate. Robert Lowe is coming off of an extraordinary game, but with Texas State is projected to be playing from behind for much of Thursday’s matchup against Georgia Southern. This isn’t a recipe for a big game from Lowe, as he’s only averaging 10.75 carries in Texas State’s four losses this season.
Georgia Southern
Expected Team Total Points: 44.75
RB Matt Breida – 8,200
Analysis: Last week was the first time in 2015 since the season opener against West Virginia that a defense was able to contain Matt Breida. Breida was only able to amass 78 yards on 14 carries against Appalachian State, but now he faces off against a Texas State defense that has been repeatedly gashed on the ground this season. With the exception of a matchup with lowly Prairie View A&M, Texas State has given up over 250 yards rushing to every opponent they’ve faced this season. That spells trouble against Georgia Southern’s option offense that is averaging an FBS best 368.9 yards per game.
Recommendation: Breida will likely only see 15-18 carries, but the potential is there for him to have a big day in one of the softest matchups he will face all season. He’s already averaged over 10 yards per carry on four occasions in 2015, and is a good bet to make it five this week. We think Breida is one of the better tournament options at running back this week due to his ability to explode for a big game without necessarily receiving a large quantity of touches. There’s potential for 200 yards and multiple scores, but his floor is also lower than other highly priced options in this slate.
Oregon at Arizona State
Kickoff: 10-29-15, 10:30 PM EST
Spread: Arizona State -2.5
O/U: 66
Oregon
Expected Team Total Points: 31.75
RB Royce Freeman – 9,000
Analysis: Freeman has been an absolute workhorse for Oregon this season. He’s received exactly 27 carries in each of the Ducks’ last three games and has averaged 182 yards in that span. Oregon may be without two of their starting offensive linemen against an Arizona State defense that blitzed more than any team in the FBS. That impact will likely be felt more in the passing game, but Arizona State’s FBS-leading 9.9 Tackles For Loss per game highlights the impact that these blitzes have on the running game as well. Arizona State managed to slow down two of the PAC-12’s other elite running backs in recent weeks, only allowing 118 yards to Utah’s Devonte Booker and 63 yards to UCLA’s Paul Perkins.
Recommendation: Freeman will likely turn in another a solid performance in what should be a close game, however we prefer to pay up for an elite receiver when constructing your lineup as opposed to paying up for Freeman. The drop in quality between first and second tier running backs looks to be less steep than that between the first and second tier receivers.
Arizona State
Expected Team Total Points: 34.25
WR Tim White – 5,300
Analysis: Since starting off slowly to begin the season due to a hand injury, Tim White has really come on strong and established himself as Arizona State’s top threat in the passing game. White only caught eight passes in ASU’s first four games, but has reeled in 14 grabs in the last three contests and also has four touchdowns in that span. He gets to square off with one of the nation’s worst pass defenses, as Oregon is allowing 306.6 passing yards per game.
Recommendation: White is our favorite cash game option amongst the cheaper receivers in this slate. He could absolutely blow up for a big game against the Oregon secondary and has a nice floor as a receiver that is averaging over eight targets per game in three outings this month.
Friday Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 10-30-15, 7:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 4 games
Louisville at Wake Forest
Kickoff: 10-30-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Louisville -12
O/U: 42
Louisville
Expected Team Total Points: 27
QB Lamar Jackson – 8,400
Analysis: Lamar Jackson’s running ability has been evident since he entered at quarterback in the second half of Louisville’s season opener against Auburn – and promptly ran for 106 yards and a touchdown. We’ve really seen Jackson make strides as a passer though in recent weeks, throwing for 307 yards and three scores against Florida State two weeks ago, and throwing for 230 yards against a tough Boston College defense last week. He now faces a Wake Forest defense that has given up 85 points in its last two games.
Recommendation: Jackson’s running ability gives him substantial upside every time he steps on the field. This game only has an over/under of 42 though, and we are not recommending him for cash games.
Wake Forest
Expected Team Total Points: 15
TE Cam Serigne – 3,500
Analysis: Serigne is far and away the best tight end option in this slate. He is tied for the Wake Forest team lead in receptions and is third in yards with 372. He’s been the most consistent source of offense for Wake Forest this season, but of late, with the team rotating quarterbacks in-game, Serigne has seen less targets, only averaging five over the last three games versus eight targets in the first five.
Recommendation: Though Serigne is unquestionably the top tight end available, we have a tough time paying up for him considering how dysfunctional the Wake Forest offense has been in recent weeks, averaging only 11 points per game in the team’s last three contests. He has a one catch game and a two catch game to his credit in that span, and we would rather spend at other positions. Punting tight end is looking like very viable, with Wyatt Houston (2,400 in a game that his team should score plenty of points) and Cole Hunt (2,000 – five targets last week) both in play – as we’re seeing very little value in the medium-range options at the position.
East Carolina at UConn
Kickoff: 10-30-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: East Carolina -7.5
O/U: 53
East Carolina
Expected Team Total Points: 30.25
WR Trevon Brown – 5,000
Analysis: Trevon Brown seems to have established himself as the number two option in the ECU passing game behind Isaiah Jones. Since returning from a suspension that cost him the first three games of the season, Jones has caught at least four passes in every contest, and has scored three times.
Recommendation: Brown seen a whopping 33 targets in ECU’s last three games, giving him a high floor in respect to his very reasonable price tag. He makes for a solid third wide receiver in cash games in this slate.
UConn
Expected Team Total Points: 22.75
We’re not excited about any of the UConn options this week. Bryant Shirreffs (8,900) has solid running ability but has been very inconsistent as a passer. Arkeel Newsome has been a good source of catches out of the backfield and sees most of the team’s carries at running back, but he’s far too expensive at 7,900. UConn’s two tight ends, Tommy Myers and Alec Bloom have combined for one total touchdown this season, and at their inflated prices – 2,500 and 3,000, respectively – we don’t see the need to save cash to fit them in.
Louisiana Tech at Rice
Kickoff: 10-30-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Louisiana Tech -12.5
O/U: 64
Louisiana Tech
Expected Team Total Points: 38.25
QB Jeff Driskel – 9,000
Analysis: Driskel has thrown for at least 300 yards in three straight weeks and has a good shot at making it four against Rice this Friday. The Rice has been gashed both times they have faced quality quarterbacks this season, with Seth Russell and Brandon Doughty combining to throw for 686 yards and 10 touchdowns against the Owls. Driskel’s wide receiver corps is finally back near full strength with Trent Taylor, Paul Turner, and Carlos Henderson set to suit up for just the fourth time together as a unit this season.
Recommendation: Jeff Driskel is our favorite cash game option. Driphus Jackson and Lamar Jackson may have higher ceilings thanks to their running ability, but Driskel’s week to week consistency, and choice matchup, make him the most reliable quarterback in this slate.
RB Kenneth Dixon – 9,000
Analysis: Kenneth Dixon returned from a leg injury last weekend and promptly got back to his touchdown scoring ways, finding the end zone four times on only 16 touches. He’s up to 12 total scores on the year despite missing two games, and now has a dream matchup against Rice’s 108th ranked rushing defense.
Recommendation: Dixon is a no-brainer cash game play this week. The only thing to note is that he’s still getting back to 100 percent from his leg injury (Dixon was held out of practice Monday, but returned Tuesday) - it’s better to be safe than sorry and check Twitter for updates leading up to lineup lock to make sure he’s still expected to play.
WR Trent Taylor – 7,700 WR Paul Turner 5,200
Analysis: Trent Taylor has been one of the more consistent receivers in the nation this season. He’s hauled in at least five passes and 78 yards in every game except Louisiana Tech’s season opener, and has been extremely impressive lately, catching 31 balls for 370 yards in the team’s last three games. Paul Turner got off to a great start to 2015, catching 10 passes 185 yards in the first two weeks of 2015, but has been slowed by a hamstring injury since then. He’s reportedly back to full health now and though his output has been modest the last two weeks, Turner should resume his role as the number two option in the passing game for Louisiana Tech.
Recommendation: Taylor is a fantastic cash game option as the receiver with easily the highest floor in this slate. Turner could go off in a game that should have lots of offense, but his lack of production in recent weeks has us considering him best used for tournaments this week.
Rice
Expected Team Total Points: 25.75
WR Dennis Parks – 5,600
Analysis: Dennis Parks is off to a solid start to the season, catching 25 passes for 381 yards and three touchdowns through Rice’s first seven games. Those numbers could be even better though if Parks had not missed the season opener with a hamstring injury, and more recently, he did not suit up for Rice’s last game against Army due to a foot injury. Rice’s beat writer, Stephanie Kuzydym has reported that Parks will return this Friday. In the four full games that Parks has played this season, he’s averaged 5.75 catches on 8.5 targets and 92.5 yards.
Recommendation: Parks projects as one of the better values in this slate. Rice will need to throw to keep pace with Louisiana Tech and Parks should be a top target of quarterback Driphus Jackson. We recommend checking Twitter for updates near lineup lock just to make sure nothing negative has come out on game day.
Update: Per beat writer Stephanie Kuzydym (on Twitter), Dennis Parks 'may actually not be ready to go today. On Wednesday, their last pracice, it was still a caution' (referring to Parks). We're seeing Parks as being too risky for cash games at the present. Pivot options include teammate Zach Wright, who would be line to continue his recent trend of solid play with Parks out, and Louisiana Tech's Paul Turner, or ECU's Trevon Brown.
Wyoming at Utah State
Kickoff: 10-30-15, 10:15 PM EST
Spread: Utah State -28
O/U: 50.5
Wyoming
Expected Team Total Points: 11.25
RB Brian Hill – 7,400
Analysis: Hill is essentially the entire Cowboys offense at this point. Quarterback Cameron Coffman is doubtful to play Friday as is the team’s top receiver Tanner Gentry. Hill is fourth in the NCAA in rushing with 1,061 yards, but he only had three touchdowns on the season. The fact that the team total for Wyoming is only 11.25 says a lot about Vegas’s confidence in Hill adding a fourth score to his resume this Friday.
Recommendation: Hill should see twenty or more carries this week, and has a good chance to exceed 100 yards rushing, but his inability to score touchdowns has us considering him mainly for GPP lineups. At 7,400, he’ll need to reach pay dirt at least once to hit value.
Utah State
Expected Team Total Points: 39.25
QB Kent Myers – 8,400 WR Hunter Sharp – 7,300
Analysis: Kent Myers and the Utah State offense are coming off one of their worst collective performances in recent seasons, getting smoked 48-14 last Friday. Myers looked particularly miserable, committing several inexcusable turnovers. Despite the extreme circumstances, Hunter Sharp still had a good game, catching four passes for 63 yards and a touchdown, and he has been Utah State’s only consistent option in the passing game all season.
Recommendation: Myers and Sharp somewhat go hand in hand this week. We view the pair as a potentially great GPP stack in what will likely be a blowout win for Utah State. Considering their price points however, paying up a little more for Louisiana Tech’s Jeff Driskel and Trent Taylor is preferable in cash games.
RB Devonte Mays – 6,400
Analysis: Mays’s role has been increasing steadily in 2015. Though LaJuan Hunt began the year as the top running back for the Aggies, Mays has clearly usurped him. Mays has seen the most carries in this backfield each of the last two weeks, received a season high 15 totes last week, and has scored five times in the team’s last three games. He now faces a miserable Wyoming defense that is allowing 212.8 rush yards per game.
Recommendation: There’s very little chance that this game remains close for long and Mays should set a season high for carries this week. He should score for a fourth consecutive game and we’re fine with plugging him into cash games in a slate that is severely lacking in quality running back play.
