Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 10-22-15, 7:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 5 games
Temple at East Carolina
Kickoff: 10-22-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: ECU -3
O/U: 52.5
Temple
Expected Team Total Points: 24.75
RB Jahad Thomas – 9,400
Analysis: Thomas is the engine that makes the Temple offense go. He’s received at least 20 carries in each game but one this season, and has scored at least one touchdown in every contest Temple has played. He now faces an East Carolina defense that has given up over 100 yards to BYU’s Algernon Brown and Tulsa’s Zach Langer back to back weeks and is allowing 186 rushing yards per game (90th in the FBS).
Recommendation: In a slate filled with quality options at running back, Thomas is the best combination of floor, upside, workload, and matchup. He should sail well past 100 yards and have another fantastic week.
East Carolina
Expected Team Total Points: 27.75
WR Isaiah Jones – 5,700 WR Trevon Brown - 4,700
Analysis: East Carolina’s rotating of quarterbacks has largely made Jones’s production unpredictable this season. Since James Summers began seeing action at quarterback four games ago against Virginia Tech, Jones has yet to amass more than 100 yards in a game. He’s up to 51 catches and 595 yards on the year, but of that, 30 catches and 342 yards came in the first three games of the year, while Blake Kemp was exclusively the Pirates’ quarterback.
Recommendation: The ECU passing game is difficult to place much faith in at this point. Though Jones is the clear top receiver in this system, with run-first quarterback James Summers seeing significant time operating the offense, Jones simply hasn’t been producing at a high enough level to earn him a recommendation. If you are looking for a potential value play at receiver, at 4,700, Trevon Brown has caught a touchdown in three of the four games in which he has played since returning from suspension, and can free up some salary for the many high-priced studs in this slate.
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State
Kickoff: 10-22-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Appalachian State -6
O/U: 63.5
Georgia Southern
Expected Team Total Points: 28.75
RB Matt Breida – 8,900
Analysis: Just like he was in 2014, Breida has again been one of the most explosive running backs in the country in 2015. Amongst running backs, he’s leading the nation with an outrageous 10.3 yards per carry. He’s ran for at least 130 yards and scored a touchdown in each of Georgia Southern’s last five games. The Appalachian State defense has only allowed one 100 yard rusher in 2015, but they’ve yet to face a squad so committed to the run as Georgia Southern.
Recommendation: Breida shares the backfield with two interchanging quarterbacks and two running backs, LA Ramsby and Wesley Fields, who all see significant carries. Through his entire two season college career, Breida has only seen 20 carries on one occasion. Granted, Breida’s game is largely predicated on his explosiveness more than receiving a high volume of touches, but we feel that in a tough matchup this week he’s best used in tournaments rather than cash games.
Appalachian State
Expected Team Total Points: 34.75
RB Marcus Cox – 8,400
Analysis: Marcus Cox is off to a stellar start to 2015, averaging 115 yards per game. That number could be even more inflated if Appalachian State wasn’t consistently blowing out its opponents. So far through its first six games, the Mountaineers have only played one game that has been decided by less than 30 points. Still, with that being the case, Cox is averaging 19 carries on the season. It would be very surprising if Thursday’s game turned into a blowout for either side, as these teams appear to be very evenly matched on paper. Last season, Appalachian State leaned on Cox more as the team entered Sun Belt play, and he averaged 30.2 carries over the team’s final five games. A 25-30 carry effort from Cox may be in the cards this week.
Recommendation: Cox should receive a solid allotment of carries this week, and is a solid cash game play. We don’t quite like him as much as Jahad Thomas or Paul Perkins, but like those two, he has a high floor due to his role as a true bell-cow running back.
California at UCLA
Kickoff: 10-22-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: UCLA -3
O/U: 68
California
Expected Team Total Points: 32.5
QB Jared Goff – 8,600
Analysis: Goff has not thrown the ball quite as much this year as he did in his first two seasons as Cal quarterback, but the Cal offense still largely relies on the passing game to make the offense go. Goff has thrown for over 300 yards in four of Cal’s last five game, though the effort against Utah two weeks in which he threw five interceptions was one to forget. UCLA’s pass defense has been strong this year, holding opponents to the FBS’s 20th best rate of only 176.2 yards per game through the air. Recent losses and close games that the Bruins have played against Stanford, Arizona State, and BYU have shown us that if you want to beat UCLA, your best bet is to do so is via the ground, as they’ve allowed 221 yards in those three games.
Recommendation: UCLA has yet to give up 300 yards passing this season, and even if they do this week, Goff is unlikely to have a good enough game to justify his price. The matchup has us looking elsewhere at quarterback in this slate.
RB Daniel Lasco – 5,400
Analysis: Lasco has been a mess this year since his solid effort in week two against San Diego State. Since then he’s only seen scarce playing time due to a hip injury and only received one carry in Cal’s last game against Utah. According to interviews with coaches this week, he’s no lock to play this week and even if he does, his role is uncertain. It’s possible more details will emerge, but at this point, he’s got to be considered questionable for Thursday.
Recommendation: Lasco was a monster in 2014, but even at his discounted price this week, it’s very difficult to confidently slot him in your lineup. Monitor Twitter leading up to lineup lock, but even if we got confirmation that he’s starting, he’d still only be a risky tournament option.
WR Kenny Lawler – 6,300
Analysis: Lawler has been by far the most consistent Cal receiver, and has also been the team’s best red zone option. He leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns and has caught at least six passes in all but one game. In a game that projects to be a back and forth shootout, Lawler should see plenty of targets.
Recommendation: Other than the Memphis tandem of Garrett and Atkinson, Lawler is our favorite cash game option at the reasonable price of 6,300. He has a safe floor, and with Cal struggling in recent weeks to run the ball, the game plan should largely focus on the passing game.
TE Stephen Anderson – 3,700
Analysis: Anderson had his best game of the season two weeks ago against Utah, catching six passes for 99 yards. He’s not a true tight end, in the sense that he never really does much blocking and lines up out wide a significant portion of his snaps.
Recommendation: Anderson would have to have a huge game to justify this price, largely because inserting him in your lineup will limit your ability to pay up for elite options at other positions. We don’t recommend him for cash games, but rather if you are freeing up cash by rolling out cheaper, high risk options in GPPs, then it would become feasible to roster Anderson.
UCLA
Expected Team Total Points: 35.5
QB Josh Rosen – 8,500
Analysis: Rosen has put up big lines the past couple of weeks, but most of that output has come in a comeback effort after the team has fallen behind. In games against Arizona State and Stanford, Rosen has looked very shaky early on, and UCLA falling behind has largely been due to his poor play. Though Cal’s pass defense has a reputation for being one of the worst in the country on a yearly basis, they’re only allowing 236.3 yards per game through the air this season, and have only given up five passing touchdowns, to go along with 12 interceptions.
Recommendation: We expect UCLA to try and rely on the ground game early in this game, and continue to do so as long as the game remains close. Rosen isn’t an ideal option at his price of 8.500 and we’d rather pay up for Paxton Lynch’s safe floor, or insert Dane Evans at a discounted rate.
RB Paul Perkins – 8,100
Analysis: Perkins hasn’t been overly productive the past two weeks, but that’s largely been due to UCLA having to play catch-up in games that they were trailing throughout. Consider that in UCLA’s losses the past two games against Arizona State and Stanford, Perkins only received an average of 16 carries, but in the previous two wins against BYU and Arizona, Perkins averaged 25 carries. California doesn’t have the running game that is required to jump out to a big lead on UCLA and we feel that the game script sets up nicely for Perkins. Cal gave up 222 yards to Devonte Booker in their last game, and their rank as 47th best run defense is somewhat misleading, as the Golden Bears haven’t faced very many formidable running backs in 2015.
Recommendation: We feel Perkins is a great cash game option in this slate. He’s the most reasonably priced of the elite running backs and should easily clear 100 yards. He’s scored in every game since UCLA’s opener and he should be counted on to reach pay dirt once again this week.
WR Jordan Payton – 6,700
Analysis: Payton appears to be developing more of a rapport with Josh Rosen as the 2015 moves forward. After hauling in only 12 passes in UCLA’s first three games, he’s amassed 19 in the previous three. He only has one 100 yard game to his credit though, and UCLA is an offense that spreads the ball around to a number of receivers.
Recommendation: At his price point of 6,700, we prefer the Memphis receivers (Atkinson and Garrett) that are similarly priced, and even consider Cal’s Kenny Lawler a slightly better option.
Memphis at Tulsa
Kickoff: 10-23-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Memphis -10.5
O/U: 74.5
Memphis
Expected Team Total Points: 42.5
QB Paxton Lynch – 9,300
Analysis: Fresh off a terrific performance in Memphis’s upset of Ole Miss, Lynch now faces a Tulsa defense that is allowing 276.7 yards per game. Lynch has thrown for at least 300 yards and multiple scores in each of Memphis’s last five games, and Tulsa won’t be able to snap either of those streaks this week. A letdown is certainly possible for Memphis coming off of such a big win, but even if the Tigers lose, Lynch will account for plenty of offense.
Recommendation: Lynch is the highest priced quarterback in this slate, and is tough to pass on in cash games, given his extremely floor. Given his high cost and general lack of running ability, we prefer other options in tournaments, as it’s highly unlikely he puts up a 40-50 fantasy point effort.
WR Anthony Miller – 6,700
Analysis: Both Mose Frazier and Anthony Miller are coming off career games against Ole Miss. Frazier secured eight passes for 83 yards and a score, while Miller caught 10 balls for 132 yards and a touchdown. Prior to that game, Frazier had only recorded one game this season with more than five catches and Miller had a total of zero such games. The matchup this week against Tulsa is a great one, but Memphis really spreads the ball around, with seven different receivers catching at least 10 passes so far in 2015.
Recommendation: Miller doesn’t represent a high enough of a floor to be recommended for cash games, but he has had big games two of the past three weeks and we feel he makes for an ideal tournament play. He could easily blow up for another big game and probably won’t be highly owned.
TE Alan Cross – 3,100
Analysis: Cross is the best bet to score amongst the tight ends in this slate. He’s scored two touchdowns this year and is up to 14 over his four year career. Cross has caught at least two passes in every game since Memphis’s season opener and exploded for his best game of the season last week against Ole Miss, catching six passes for 41 yards and a touchdown.
Recommendation: We like Cross the most of any tight end option this week. He has a material role in his team’s offense in a game that should be a shootout, and his price isn’t exorbitant. That being said, this slate is loaded with high priced players at other positions that should have a far better return on investment, and we prefer to go cheap on tight end in this slate.
Tulsa
Expected Team Total Points: 32
QB Dane Evans – 7,900
Analysis: No one is going to confuse Dane Evans for a great quarterback, but up until last week he had at least been able to take advantage of a great offensive system. Then, against East Carolina on Saturday, Evans completed 19 of 40 passes for 288 yards, and was largely ineffective moving the Tulsa offense in a 30-17 loss. This was the first game that Evans failed to top 300 yards in 2015 and the poor effort is probably largely the result of his top receiver, Keevan Lucas, being lost for the remainder of 2015. Even more discouraging, four star quarterback, true freshman Chad President had his redshirt burned in the game against ECU, and was used in short yardage and red zone packages. President was very effective in those situations, and it’s like that he’ll snipe touchdown opportunities from Evans going forward. Working in his favor, Evans is going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the NCAA, as Memphis is allowing 329 yards per game through the air.
Recommendation: The combination of Evans’ recent play and the emergence of President is reason for pause but, the matchup and shootout projection have us loving Evans this week. He should have no trouble throwing for more than 300 yards, and even if he initially struggles, the coaching staff clearly doesn’t have faith in President’s passing ability at this point, as he only attempted one pass last week. Evans is best utilized as a GPP play this week, because of the risk that his recent bad play carries over to this week, but if you do not want to pay up for Paxton Lynch in cash games, we are on board with taking the calculated risk of plugging in Evans.
RB Zack Langer – 7,000
Analysis: Langer has emerged as the clear workhorse for Tulsa this year, running for 596 yards and 11 touchdowns thus far in 2015. He’s more of a compiler than game-breaker however, as he only averages 3.9 yards per carry and has only had one run longer than 20 yards on the season. Memphis is only allowing 3.4 yards per carry, and 116.3 rush yards per game – 24th best in the FBS. The success Memphis has had against the run is probably somewhat due to teams’ preference to throw against their horrid pass defense, but Tulsa will likely be trailing for much of the game this Friday, and be forced to throw more than they’d necessarily like to.
Recommendation: In a slate filled with quality running backs, there’s no reason invest in the middling Zack Langer. He’ll like see 15-20 carries and has a good chance to score, but with options such as Paul Perkins, Jahad Thomas, Matt Breida, etc. You can find value at wide receiver, but going cheap at running back in this slate isn’t recommended.
WR Keyarris Garrett – 6,500 WR Josh Atkinson 7,100
Analysis: Garrett and Atkinson have him two of the most consistent receivers in the country this year. Garrett is averaging 116.3 yards per game receiving, good for 9th nationally. If you take away the first game of the season, in which Josh Atkinson did not record a catch, he is averaging 115.2 yards per game. In the two games since Keevan Lucas was lost for the season, Garrett and Atkinson have accounted for 62 percent of Tulsa’s catches and 64 percent of the team’s receiving yards.
Recommendation: Both Garrett and Atkinson are great cash game options. Tulsa will be throwing often against one of the worst secondaries in the FBS and there’s little doubt that Atkinson and Garrett will be the beneficiaries. We prefer Atkinson if forced to pick between the two, as he’s on a streak of five straight 100 yard games, whereas Garrett has failed to reach 100 yards in three straight – but both should be in for solid games against Memphis.
Utah State at San Diego State
Kickoff: 10-23-15, 10:30 PM EST
Spread: Utah State -5
O/U: 45
Utah State
Expected Team Total Points: 25
WR Hunter Sharp – 6,500
Analysis: Sharp is the clear top option in the Utah State passing game. Since returning from his two week suspension to start the season, he’s hauled in 23 balls for 378 yards and three scores, in four games. The San Diego State pass defense has been far more exploitable than their run defense this season, as they’ve allowed three 100 yard receivers in seven games.
Recommendation: Sharp could once again have a nice game, but in a game projected with such a low total, he’s far less safe than many of the other options available. He will likely be sparsely owned, and could make for a nice GPP play.
TE Wyatt Houston – 2,400
Analysis: Houston caught his first touchdown of the season last week against Boise State. He has two catches in each of Utah State’s last two games, which is encouraging considering that he only has nine on the season. He’s primarily just a guy that records an occasional catch, as opposed to having a real role in the offense, and his best chance to score is on a play-action short yardage red zone opportunity.
Recommendation: This is not a slate that is ripe with affordable talent at tight end, so if you are looking to go cheap at that position, Houston is your best bet, as he should at least see a few targets.
San Diego State
Expected Team Total Points: 20
RB Donnell Pumphrey – 8,100
Analysis: The matchup for Pumphrey this week is about as tough as they come. Utah State’s run defense is sixth best in the country. The Aggies are only allowing 90.8 yards per game on the ground and have only allowed one 100 yard rusher in 2015. Pumphrey has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of his last three games, but even if he crosses that threshold for a fourth consecutive game, he shouldn’t be expected to produce at his usually elite rate.
Recommendation: Pumphrey’s matchup has us avoiding him in favor of the other top options in this slate.
