Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 10-8-15, 8:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 4 games
SMU at Houston
Kickoff: 10-8-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -25.5
O/U: 74.5
SMU
Expected Team Total Points: 24.5
QB Matt Davis – 6,700
Analysis: Davis has performed fairly well as a passer so far this season, averaging 236 yards per game through the air. He only has one 300 yard passing game, and has largely struggled the last two weeks against James Madison and East Carolina, throwing for a total of 511 yards, while completing 55 percent of his passes. Houston’s defense has been weak against the pass so far this year, allowing 316 yards per game through the air. Where Davis really derives fantasy value, however, is through the use of his legs, as he’s already rushed for 380 yards and six touchdowns this season. The only time that Houston faced a mobile quarterback this year, they held Louisville’s Lamar Jackson to only 16 yards on 12 carries.
Recommendation: Davis is a great value this week. If you don’t want to pay up for Greg Ward Jr. or Cody Kessler, Davis offers a ton of salary relief.
WR Courtland Sutton – 5,500
Analysis: Sutton is Matt Davis’s favorite receiver. He’s averaging 21.4 yards per catch this season and is 19th in the nation in receiving yards, with 450. Sutton had his worst game of the year last week against ECU, only catching four passes for 51 yards. When asked about Sutton drawing double coverage, SMU Offensive Coordinator Joe Craddock stated that ‘we’re moving him around and working to get other people the ball.’
Recommendation: Sutton is very reasonably priced at 5,500. He has huge upside this week in a game in which SMU will have to throw throughout to try to keep pace with Houston.
Houston
Expected Team Total Points: 50
QB Greg Ward Jr. – 9,800
Analysis: Greg Ward Jr. is off to a fantastic start this year. He’s averaging 264.5 yards passing, 118 yards rushing, and has already accounted for 15 total touchdowns in four games. He now faces one of the worst defenses in FBS. SMU is allowing 308.6 pass yards per game and is also allowing opposing quarterbacks of 92 rush yards per game.
Recommendation: Ward Jr. has been on fire to start this season and considering the matchup, is the best way to start building your cash game lineup this week.
RB Kenneth Farrow – 7,300
Analysis: Farrow finally broke out last week after a slow start to the season, rushing for 159 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. He has to fight his quarterback for carries, but Farrow has received 59 percent of the rushing attempts allocated to running backs – with a sizable amount of the carries that have gone to his backups having come in garbage time. Ward Jr. will inevitably steal touchdowns from him, but Farrow did score 12 times on the ground last season in the games that Ward Jr. was quarterback, granted that that was in a different, though similar offensive system.
Recommendation: In a slate filled with committee backfields, ineffective rushing attacks, and game time decisions, the certainty of Farrow’s role and matchup is a welcome sight. He may not quite hit value, but Farrow should have no trouble surpassing 100 yards.
WR Demarcus Ayers – 7,300
Analysis: Ayers has been Greg Ward Jr’s favorite target so far this year, catching 32 passes for 377 yards and three touchdowns. He’s hauled in at least six passes each game and now faces an SMU pass defense that has been torched by all season long.
Recommendation: Ayers should have a nice game this week and playing him or Kenneth Farrow allows you solid exposure to the Houston offense, even if you fade Greg Ward Jr. His price is a bit excessive though and we don’t recommending spending on him unless you have the extra cash.
Washington at USC
Kickoff: 10-8-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: USC -17
O/U: 56
Washington
Expected Team Total Points: 19.5
TE Joshua Perkins – 2,900
Analysis: The Washington passing game has been anemic to say the least. Working in Joshua Perkins’s favor, the Huskies will certainly be forced to throw this week against USC, as they should be playing from behind for much of the contest. Perkins has pulled in five catches in two of Washington’s four games so far this year. He hasn’t scored in 2015 and his 13 total catches on the year rank third on the team.
Recommendation: Perkins doesn’t have much upside considering the current state of the offense. He should be good for a couple of catches, but not much more, and isn’t a very appealing option.
USC
Expected Team Total Points: 36.5
QB Cody Kessler – 8,500
Analysis: Kessler has been very consistent so far this year, throwing for at least three touchdowns in every game in 2015 thus far. Washington is coming off a game in which they just gave up 342 yards through the air to the Jared Goff led California offense, and the Huskies play exceedingly tough against the run, only allowing 104.5 yards on the ground per game. USC will likely look to attack Washington mainly through the air and Kessler should have little trouble surpassing the 300 yard passing threshold for the third time this season.
Recommendation: Kessler is a very safe pick this week. If you can’t fit Greg Ward Jr. into your lineup, Kessler is a solid building block.
WR Juju Smith-Schuster – 8,300
Analysis: Juju Smith-Schuster has been one of the best receivers in the country to start 2015. He’s scored in every game this season and is currently sixth in the country in receiving through five weeks, despite USC only play four games. Washington allowed seven catches and 112 yards against California’s top receiver, Kenny Lawler, two weeks ago, and Smith-Schuster is very likely to go over 100 yards receiving for a fourth straight game.
Recommendation: Smith-Schuster has the highest floor and highest ceiling of any receiver in this slate. He’s expensively priced but working one or two value plays into your lineup should allow you to afford him with little trouble.
WR Adoree’ Jackson – 6,100
Analysis: Outside of Juju Smith-Schuster, Adoree’ Jackson is arguably USC’s best receiver. The thing about Jackson though, is that he has seen very limited snaps on offense, as he is also a lock down cornerback for the Trojans. He’s only caught seven passes in 2015, but has averaged 27.6 yards per reception. In USC’s last game, Jackson turned three catches into 131 yards and a touchdown. Working in his favor, fellow cornerback Kevon Seymour should return from injury this week, which is expected to allow Jackson to see more snaps on offense.
Recommendation: Jackson is a perfect tournament option this week. His floor is very minimal considering how few snaps he usually sees on offense, but even if he only gets a few touches, he is a threat to have a huge game.
Southern Miss at Marshall
Kickoff: 10-9-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Marshall -5.5
O/U: 58.5
Southern Miss
Expected Team Total Points: 26.5
QB Nick Mullens – 7,300
Analysis: Nick Mullens has thrown for the fifth most yards in the FBS so far this season, totaling 1691 yards to go with 14 touchdowns. He threw for 311 yards against Mississippi State and 447 yards against Nebraska, so it’s not like he’s been feasting solely on inferior competition. Marshall has given up the 19th least pass yards (161.4) per game, but they’ve yet to face a team ranked higher than 57th in pass yards per game in the FBS.
Recommendation: Mullens is fairly priced in this slate: he’s cheaper than Ward Jr. and Kessler, but more expensive than all other quarterbacks worth consideration. With that being said, we see little room for profit, and recommend that you either take the guaranteed big games from Ward/Kessler or go with a cheaper option.
RB Ito Smith – 5,300 RB Jalen Richard – 4,900 RB Justice Hayes – 5,900
Analysis: Ito Smith and Jalen Richard see most of the time at running back in this up-tempo system. Richard gained most of his rushing yards (63 percent) against Texas State in the team’s third game of the season, though he also leads the team in rushing touchdowns with five. Ito Smith has seen 20 less carries than Richard, but both players have 365 rush yards on the year. Smith is also the team’s third leading receiver, with 18 catches. Justice Hayes led Southern Miss in rushing last week, but most of his yardage was in garbage time.
Analysis: Considering the other value plays in this slate, there’s little reason to consider one of the Southern Miss running backs.
WR Mike Thomas – 6,500
Analysis: Thomas got off to a slow start this season, missing the team’s second game with an injury, and wasn’t productive for the first three games of the year. He has gone for over 100 yards each of the last two weeks and is clearly regaining the form that made him the team’s leading receiver in 2014.
Recommendation: As the emerging number one receiver in what has been one of the most prolific offenses in the country, Thomas is a solid value at 6,500.
WR Casey Martin – 5,000
Analysis: Martin has largely been a possession receiver over the course of his career, but has scored five touchdowns over his last three games, and leads the team in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns in 2015.
Recommendation: Martin was clearly the team’s top receiving option while Michael Thomas was healing up, but he took a backseat this past week, only catching four passes for 36 yards against North Texas. If you’re looking for a cheaper receiver with a reasonably high floor, Martin is your man.
Marshall
Expected Team Total Points: 32
QB Chase Litton – 7,400
Analysis: Chase Litton has performed admirably in relief of injured starter Michael Birdsong, winning each of the three games in which he’s played. He’s thrown eight touchdowns in that span, but has yet to throw for more than 270 yards.
Recommendation: There’s little reason to play Litton at his price of 7,400 unless you are looking for a contrarian target in a tournament, as he’s likely to have very low ownership.
RB Devon Jonson – 5,200 RB Tony Pittman – 6,800
Analysis: As of now, it’s unclear if Devon Johnson will suit up. Over the last two seasons, he’s been one of the best running backs in the country when healthy, but was slowed last year by a shoulder injury, and missed last week’s game with a back injury. Coach Doc Holliday stated earlier this week that he expected Johnson to return to practice and that there is a “good chance” that he plays against Southern Miss. Tony Pittman has rushed for over 100 yards in place of Johnson each of the last two weeks and whichever running back starts should be in for a big day against a Southern Miss defense allowing 201 yards rushing per game.
Recommendation: While Devon Johnson seems to be trending toward playing this week, there’s still material risk that he sits out, or splits carries. His price is outstanding though, and if definitive news that he was going to start were to break prior to lineup lock, he’d be a must play. As is, we recommend him as a great tournament play, but feel that the uncertainty regarding his status is too great for cash games. Regarding Tony Pittman, we’d need to hear definitive news regarding Johnson’s status before considering him as well.
TE Ryan Yurachek – 3,000
Analysis: Yurachek has been very consistent this season, securing at least three passes in every game so far, while scoring in all but one contest. He’s totaled 10 catches and 121 yards since Chase Litton took over at quarterback, and Yurachek leads the team in both catches and receiving yards on the year.
Recommendation: If you don’t want to pay up for Jaylen Samuels, Yurachek is a solid play.
NC State at Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 10-9-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Even
O/U: 51
NC State
Expected Team Total Points: 25.5
QB Jacoby Brissett – 6,600
Analysis: Jacoby Brissett’s efficiency is his calling card - he’s thrown for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions thus far in 2015 – he’s unfortunately far better in real life than he is in DFS. Brissett has only accounted for eight of his team’s 28 offensive touchdowns so far, roughly 28.5%. In a game in which his team is only projected to score 25.5 points, it doesn’t seem likely that Brissett has a hand in more than one or two scores. Virginia Tech is only allowing 158 pass yards per game and Brissett has yet to throw for more than 220 yards in a single game.
Recommendation: We don’t see Brissett as a great option this week.
RB Matt Dayes – 5,600
Analysis: Dayes has gotten off to a scorching start so far this season, scoring 10 touchdowns in five games. After Shadrach Thornton returned from a two game suspension to open the season, it looked like this backfield could devolve into a committee, but Thornton was kicked off the team following an arrest prior to last week’s game. The result was Dayes seeing 19 of the 20 carries allotted to running backs in the team’s 20-17 loss to Louisville. He was only able to churn out 68 yards on the ground, but that was against a tough Louisville run defense only allowing 3.8 yards per carry. Dayes now faces a Virginia Tech defense that, on the surface, has been very susceptible to the run this year, allowing 197 yards per game. A closer look though shows that the Hokies have only given up two 100 yard rushing games to running backs: against Ohio State in week one (nothing to be ashamed of) and last week against Pittsburgh’s Quadree Ollison. In fact, of the 197 rush yards per game that Virginia Tech is allowing, on average 78 of those yards are coming from quarterbacks, meaning the Hokies are only allowing 119 yards per game to running backs.
Recommendation: Dayes’s projected volume gives him a nice floor this week. Devon Johnson at 5,200 would be the far better option if we knew he was healthy and starting, but that information is unlikely to be available prior to lineup lock. We see Dayes as a solid cash game option.
WR Jaylen Samuels – 4,200
Analysis: Jaylen Samuels has clearly established himself as Jacoby Brissett’s top receiving option, leading the team in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. He’s caught between four and six passes every game, including five last week against a very strong Louisville pass defense. Samuels also has four rushing touchdowns this season. He only has 12 carries on the year, but most of his running opportunities come on jet sweeps out of the slot. Fortunately, NC State generally only calls this play close to the goal line, giving him a high probability of scoring. He hasn’t scored on the ground in either of the team’s last two games, and didn’t record a carry last week. Interestingly, Coach Dave Doeren stated in his weekly press conference that he believes ‘you’re not going to sit there and just run downhill on their (Virginia Tech) front and have a good day doing it.’ Potentially, that could be an intimation that more creative running plays involving Samuels could be called this week.
Recommendation: Samuels is undoubtedly the best tight end option in this slate, though we recommend prioritizing the top options at other positions though, and if you have room, coming back and fitting in Samuels.
Virginia Tech
Expected Team Total Points: 25.5
QB Brandon Motley – 6,700 QB Michael Brewer – 6,100
Analysis: Michael Brewer is likely to be a game-time decision this week, after missing the last four games with a broken collar bone. Brandon Motley had played well in his first three games replacing Brewer, before falling flat last week against Pittsburgh, only throwing for 91 yards, while rushing for -14 yards in that game. NC State has allowed only 146 yards passing per game so far this year, but has played four Group of Five opponents, and last week faced Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, who primarily relies on his legs.
Recommendation: Brewer offers very little upside even if he returns and isn’t a viable option. If he were to be ruled out, Motley would be an interesting tournament option. He is moderately priced, and after seeing Lamar Jackson rush for 121 yards last week against this defense, we like the potential for Motley to have a big day running the ball. Still, it’s difficult to justify him over Matt Davis who is listed at the same price and has just as much upside
TE Bucky Hodges – 3,400
Analysis: Bucky Hodges has largely failed to build upon his impressive freshman season, only catching 12 passes so far in 2015. This is likely largely due to Michael Brewer being sidelined with a broken collarbone though, and it’s possible that Brewer returns this week.
Recommendation: Hodges would receive a large boost with the return of Michael Brewer, but we won’t know for certain regarding Brewer’s status until after lineup lock. Even still, Hodges’ lack of production this season and the tough matchup that NC State presents has us considering Hodges solely as a tournament option.
TE Ryan Malleck – 2,000
Analysis: While Malleck is Virginia Tech's secondary tight end, he stills sees ample playing time and has put up a 9-120-2 line so far this year. He caught four passes against Ohio State in the season opener, the only game in which Michael Brewer played, and would likely see a boost in targets if Brewer were to return this week.
Recommendation: Malleck is the best minimum priced tight end option this week. He's risky, as he didn't record a catch last week, and we won't know Brewer's status until after lineup lock, but if you are looking for salary relief at the position, he is your best bet.