Unlock More Content Like This With A
Footballguys Premium Subscription
"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."
Matthew Berry, NBC Sports EDGE
- Entry Deadline (Lineup Lock): 9-24-15, 7:30 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 3 games
Cincinnati at Memphis
Kickoff: 9-24-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Memphis -11
O/U: 65.5
Cincinnati
Expected Team Total Points: 27.25
QB Gunner Kiel – 8,200 QB Hayden Moore 7,000
Analysis: Gunner Kiel was knocked out of last week’s game, but passed his concussion test, and is said to mostly be dealing with a shoulder issue at this point. Kiel was struggling against Miami (Ohio) last week prior to leaving the game, and threw four interceptions the week prior against Temple. He has put up huge stat lines before in this offense, but 2015 has gotten off to a rocky start. Kiel has taken snaps in practice both Monday and Tuesday, and while it’s unlikely that we’ll know the starter before kickoff, the situation seems to be trending toward Kiel starting.
Recommendation: The uncertainty surrounding who will start keeps both guys from being cash game options. The realistic possibility exists that Kiel starts and either gets pulled for ineffectiveness, or gets injured again. It’s likely that this game ends up being a high scoring affair and the Cincinnati quarterback will have a large role in that, so taking a stab in a tournament at one of these guys could pay off big time.
RB Mike Boone – 5,900 RB Tion Green 6,800 RB Hosey Williams 5,900
Analysis: Mike Boone has been very productive in the limited role he’s had so far in his Cincinnati career. Last year as a freshman, Boone averaged 6.4 yards per carry and scored nine touchdowns, but only saw double digit touches on five occasions. Boone was off to a great start to 2015, and last week turned four early carries into 118 yards before spraining his ankle and not seeing any action in the second half. If Boone sits we should see close to a 50/50 split in carries between Williams and Green. Both turned in workmanlike efforts against a bad Ball State defense last week, with Williams rushing for 81 yards on 17 carries and Green turning 19 rushes into 66 yards.
Recommendation: The Cincinnati running backs are not great values this week. They’re priced expensively relative to other running backs who split time. We view this as a stay away.
WR Shaq Washington – 5,700 Chris Moore – 5,900 Mekale McKay – 5,800 Johnny Holton – 5,700
Analysis: The Cincinnati receiving corps is as much of a roulette wheel as you will find in the FBS. Every now and then one of them breaks through for a big game, but for the most part the distribution of targets is fairly equitable. Mekale McKay missed last week’s game due to injury, though he’s likely to suit up Thursday. Shaq Washington leads the team in catches, with 17, and is second in yards with 166.
Recommendation: All of these receivers are priced similarly, but Washington stands out as the best value of the group. He’s the best cash game option, but if you are looking for an upside tournament play, consider Mekale McKay, assuming we get word that he’s cleared to return from injury.
Memphis
Expected Team Total Points: 38.25
QB Paxton Lynch – 9,100
Analysis: Lynch is off to a great start in 2015, throwing for 818 yards and six touchdown in three games, though he only had to throw for 78 yards in Memphis’s season opener against FCS opponent Missouri State. Cincinnati’s pass defense on the surface appears solid, only allowing 152 yards per game through the air so far in 2015. However, their first game was against an FCS foe and their second was against Temple, who was content just running all over the Bearcats for 215 yards. On Thursday, we expect the Cincinnati defense to closer represent the unit that gave up an average of 266 yards passing in 2014.
Recommendation: Lynch is our top cash game play in this slate. Though he’s expensive, he should have no trouble throwing for over 300 yards. Memphis can score numerous different ways when they get in the red zone (multiple running backs and receivers have rushing touchdowns so far in 2015) and as a result, Lynch might not have the ideal touchdown upside, but he’s an extremely safe pick.
RB Doroland Dorceous – 5,100
Analysis: Dorceus led Memphis in rushing last week with 16 carries for 75 yards, and though this was the first time he’d received double digit carries this season, he’s scored in every game so far. The Memphis backfield is crowded, but beat writer Tom Schad noted that from the second quarter onward against Bowling Green, Dorceus was the “go to guy.” Memphis will certainly continue to rotate in multiple backs, but it’s possible that we’re seeing Dorceus stake his claim as top running back. Cincinnati has allowed 178 rushing yards per game so far, 83rd in the FBS.
Recommendation: Though Dorceus will likely lead this backfield in carries, we recommend paying up for the workhorse running backs in this slate. The difference in floor between Dorceus, who will have to be very efficient with his 10-15 touches, and McCaffrey or McNichols, both who should exceed 20 carries, is too great when constructing a cash game lineup, in our opinion.
RB Sam Craft – 6,200
Analysis: Craft has been listed as the team’s starting running back, but has yet to lead Memphis in carries in a game this season. He’s utilized in both the running and passing game though, and his versatility gives him a path to touches going forward, even if Dorceus continues to emerge.
Recommendation: Though Craft will be very involved in Memphis’s game plan. The uncertainty surrounding his usage, in terms of carry and catch distribution, makes his 6,200 price tag too steep.
WR Mose Frazier – 7,600
Analysis: Frazier is Memphis’s top option in the passing game, but in an offense that utilizes so many different running backs and receivers, it’s not surprising that he’s yet to surpass the 100 yard receiving plateau in a game in 2015. The 17 catches so far is an impressive total, and Frazier’s consistently minor role as a runner is an added bonus, but he shouldn’t be viewed as a true number one receiver, in an offense that spreads the ball around to so many different players.
Recommendation: Frazier is the highest priced receiver in this slate, and though he’s likely to have a decent day, it’s tough to see him justifying this price unless he catches a couple of long touchdowns. We prefer paying up for running backs when constructing a lineup this week, and feel that better values can be had at the receiver position.
TE Alan Cross – 2,900
Analysis: Cross doesn’t see a ton of targets but he’s only had two games since the beginning of 2014 in which he’s failed to catch a pass. He also has 11 career receiving touchdowns and it’s worth noting that he’s the only viable tight end playing in the game with the highest projected total in this slate.
Recommendation: Like all of the Memphis pass catchers, Cross does not see a ton of targets. We do like him more than the Boise State tight end options this week because of his stable quarterback situation. While Hooper generally plays a larger role in his team’s offense, the possibility that Kevin Hogan will be out makes Cross arguably the top tight end option. While we still like Hooper more in a vacuum, taking Cross gives you an extra 1,100 to spend and it’s very likely that he and Hooper will produce similar stat lines this week.
Boise State at Virginia
Kickoff: 9-25-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Boise State -2.5
O/U: 50
Boise State
Expected Team Total Points: 26.25
QB Brett Rypien – 6,500
Analysis: True Freshman Brett Rypien looked strong in his first action last week after starter, Ryan Finley left the game with a broken ankle. Rypien completed eight of his nine pass attempts for 126 yards and was consistently making challenging throws down the field. Boise State Coach Bryan Harsin has already said that both Rypien and Thomas Stuart will both see action against Virginia and a starter has not been named, but trusted beat writer Chadd Cripe expects Rypien to see 70-80 percent of the snaps. Stuart’s strong suit is his running ability, so if Boise State is to exploit a Virginia pass defense that is allowing 261 yards per game through the air, it will be Rypien that is doing most of the throwing.
Recommendation: While Rypien is a four star recruit and should see a game plan that emphasizes his ability as a pocket passer, this game will be played in a hostile environment on a Thursday night on national television. He looked very capable last week against Idaho State, but Virginia represents a far greater challenge. The pricing isn’t tight enough where we see the need to gamble on Rypien in cash, but he could prove to be a low-owned gem in tournaments if he plays well enough to keep Thomas Stuart on the sideline all night.
RB Jeremy McNichols 7,300
Analysis: McNichols has been the focal point of Boise State’s offense so far this season, and that’s likely to remain the case this week with the Broncos playing two quarterbacks who have never started a game before. McNichols has scored eight touchdowns in the first three games and though he’s yet to break 100 yards in a game and has only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, he’s the clear top running back on the team. Virginia has been soft against the run so far this year, giving up an average of 203 rush yards per game against Notre Dame and UCLA, the two FBS opponents that they have faced.
Recommendation: McNichols is a solid cash game play this week. His price is reasonable for a running back that should see at least 20 touches. The matchup is a good one and while Virginia will likely focus on stopping him, if the Boise State passing game proves competent enough to prevent the Cavaliers from stacking the box, McNichols should have a big day.
WR Thomas Sperbeck 6,000 WR Shane Williams-Rhodes 6,100
Analysis: Sperbeck and Williams-Rhodes dominate targets for Boise, securing 47 percent of the team’s receptions thus far. Williams-Rhodes is used primarily on screens and short passes, while Sperbeck is used more on downfield throws. Virginia’s pass defense hasn’t been strong so far, but it should be expected that with a quarterback making his first career start, the Broncos will look to lean on the running game. Last week while Brett Rypien was in at quarterback, Sperbeck caught one pass for 46 yards, while Williams-Rhodes hauled in two balls for 24 yards.
Recommendation: These two receivers are priced similarly and are not cheap options. Williams-Rhodes should see more targets and has the higher floor of the two, while Sperbeck could have a big game if Boise State trusts one of their young quarterbacks to stretch the field. We feel Williams-Rhodes is the better cash game option and that Sperbeck makes more sense in tournaments.
TE Jake Roh 2,900 TE Holden Huff 2,900
Analysis: Roh historically has been good for a catch or two a night and has five catches on the year so far in 2015. While he’s never been heavily targeted, his grip on a defined role has gotten even looser with Holden Huff emerging last week. Though Huff hadn’t caught a touchdown since 2012, he broke through against Idaho State, catching four passes for 56 yards and a score.
Recommendation: Neither of these guys have a ton of upside, but if you were inclined to roll with one of them, we’d recommend riding the hot hand, in Holden Huff.
Virginia
Expected Team Total Points: 23.75
QB Matt Johns 6,800
Analysis: Johns has been surprisingly consistent so far this season after beating out Grayson Lambert for the starting job this summer. He’s thrown for 238, 289, and 263 yards along with seven touchdowns, against UCLA, Notre Dame, and William & Mary in the team’s first three games. It’s highly unlikely that Virginia will have success running the ball against a Boise State defense that is allowing only 1.7 yards per carry, so the burden will fall on Johns to move the offense.
Recommendation: Considering that three of the quarterback options in this slate – Cincinnati, Boise State, and Stanford – have serious concerns about how playing time will be distributed, Johns’ health and job security are a welcome sight. The fact that Boise State has such a strong run defense should lend itself to Johns having to throw more, giving him a nice floor. If you are looking to save at quarterback in order to spend at other positions, Johns is a solid play, though he shouldn’t be viewed in the same tier as Paxton Lynch.
RB Taquan Mizzell 6,700
Analysis: Mizzell has been a huge factor in the passing game early on this season for Virginia, catching 17 passes for 233 yards already. He hasn’t been nearly as effective on the ground, only averaging 3.3 yards per carry in Virginia’s two games against FBS opponents. The matchup with Boise State is an extremely difficult one, as the Broncos have only given up a total of 137 rushing yards in their three games played.
Recommendation: Mizzell is priced at 6.700 – 900 less than McCaffrey and 500 less than McNichols. Though he’s cheaper than both, he also faces a far tougher matchup than either. His ability as a receiver allows him to stay involved in the offense even when Virginia is having trouble running the ball, but we prefer running backs that have a more guaranteed path to carries.
WR Canaan Severin 5,200 WR T.J. Thorpe 4,500
Analysis: Canaan Severin has established himself as Matt Johns’ top target early on, catching 19 passes so far. He caught 11 passes two weeks ago against Notre Dame and scored his first touchdown of the season against William & Mary last week. Boise State’s ability to stop the run should have Virginia throwing more, and Severin should be a big beneficiary of that. T.J. Thorpe transferred in from UNC via the graduate waiver and was said to be establishing solid chemistry with Matt Johns this summer. Shortly before the season began though, Thorpe broke his collar bone and missed the team’s first two games. He returned to the field last week, though he didn’t catch a pass, and is listed as a starter for this week’s game. Per newsplex.com, Johns stated this week that “the connection that I have with Canaan right now, I had that all summer with TJ. When I lost TJ in the summer, it was hard. I did not take it well. And I had to put it aside, and we focused on what we had. But having him back is just a huge deal, and I can't wait to play with him.”
Recommendation: Severin’s price is very reasonable and he’s a solid cash game option. Virginia will need to get their top receiver involved if they hope to move the ball, as the team will likely have minimal success running the ball. While it’s not necessary to select a minimum priced option to build a solid lineup in this slate, Thorpe is our top recommendation if you’re looking for a punt. He was very inconsistent at UNC, but Virginia clearly views him as someone they expect to be a contributor this week, listing him as a starting receiver now that he’s recovered from his injury.
Stanford at Oregon State
Kickoff: 9-25-15, 10:00 PM EST
Spread: Stanford -15.5
O/U: *None available due to uncertainty of Kevin Hogan’s status
Stanford
Expected Team Total Points: *None available due to uncertainty of Kevin Hogan’s status
QB Kevin Hogan 8,500
Analysis: Kevin Hogan is going to be a game time decision on Friday, as he’s currently recovering from a bad ankle sprain he suffered last week. He’s coming off back to back impressive outings against USC and Central Florida, throwing for a combined 620 yards and five touchdowns in those two games. We likely won’t know until close to kick-off if Hogan will play, but based on Stanford’s history and the matchup, we expect the Cardinal to rely heavily on the running game.
Recommendation: At this point it really feels like a coin flip whether or not Hogan plays. Even if he does though, we’re not expecting him to match his numbers from the past two weeks. Stanford coach David Shaw was quoted as saying that “we are fortunate it was not season-ending” in regard to Hogan’s injury. Stanford affinity for running the football, coupled with this injury make it easy to avoid Hogan this week.
RB Christian McCaffrey 7,600
Analysis: Two weeks ago, Oregon State allowed 225 rushing yards against Michigan, who like Stanford runs a pro-style offense. With Stanford’s quarterback situation very much in flux leading up to this game, expectation is that the Cardinal will rely heavily on the running game. Even though Redmound Wright is likely to vulture scoring opportunities from him, McCaffrey will see 20 carries and will also add value as a receiver.
Recommendation: McCaffrey is a very safe option this week. He’s a great building block for your cash game lineups.
TE Austin Hooper 4,000
Analysis: Hooper had a big game last week against USC, hauling in four catches for 79 yards and a score. He’s up to ten catches on the year and is easily the top tight end option in this slate. Even if Hogan is ruled out, Hooper should still be expected to see targets on Friday.
Recommendation: Unless you are going with a complete punt at the tight end position, you will be choosing between Hooper, Alan Cross, and one of the Boise State tight ends. Hooper has the largest role in his team’s passing game, and if you have the cash to allocate to the position, he is a solid pick.
Oregon State
Expected Team Total Points: *None available due to uncertainty of Kevin Hogan’s status
QB Seth Collins 6,900
Analysis: While Seth Collins has only thrown for 306 yards so far this season, he’s been able to make up for it by running for 294 yards. Unfortunately, in Oregon State’s only real test thus far, against a tough Michigan defense, Collins was able to only throw for 79 yards and rush for an additional 28. The Stanford defense might not be quite as tough as Michigan’s but expectations should be tempered for Collins this week.
Recommendation: We expect Collins to struggle this week in a tough matchup. While there will be times this year that he’ll put up big rushing stats, Stanford will be keyed in on making sure his running ability is contained.
RB Storm Barrs-Woods 6,000
Analysis: Barrs-Woods rushed for 151 yards last week against San Jose State, but the matchup is substantially tougher on Friday. After a disappointing effort against Northwestern, Stanford only allowed 39 rush yards to Central Florida, and last week kept USC to a modest 155 yards on the ground. While Barrs-Woods’ role of lead running back is not in question, his volume of carries is capped by Seth Collins’ role as a runner.
Recommendation: Barrs-Woods’ numbers against San Jose State, one of the worst rush defenses in the country, greatly inflated what has been an otherwise disappointing season so far for the running back. Though Stanford’s defense is formidable, it is Collins’ vulturing of carries and scoring opportunities that really concerns us. For the price of 6,000, Barrs-Woods doesn’t offer the safe volume or juicy matchup that we’d be looking for in order to insert him into lineups.