Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 11 games
Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Pittsburgh -6
O/U: 56
Miami
Expected Team Total Points: 25
There’s nothing particularly exciting about Miami from a fantasy perspective this week. They’re going up against a Pittsburgh team that plays at a slow place and has a solid defense that only allows 214.3 pass yards per game. We don’t feel that QB Brad Kaaya (6,500) has a great deal of upside.
Pittsburgh
Expected Team Total Points: 31
Analysis: Miami has been carved up by talented running backs this year, and Pittsburgh’s RB Qadree Ollison (6,100) is coming off of back to back big games. He’s having rushed for 152 yards and 111 yards in consecutive games and has contributed a rushing score in each contest. He has taken hold of the Pittsburgh backfield, receiving 54 of the 75 carries allocated to running backs in Pittsburgh’s last two games.
Recommendation: Ollison is one of the better mid-tier plays at running back in this slate. We feel that his expected volume of carries in a nice matchup makes him a great bet to hit value. Both of Pittsburgh’s tight ends are worth consideration, for different reasons. Back-up TE Scott Orndoff (2,000) is one of the few minimum priced options that see targets on a weekly basis, whereas TE J.P. Holtz (2,900) has a material role in the offense, seeing an average of 5.25 targets the past four games. The tight end pricing is tight in this slate, and Holtz is one of the cheaper players that catches multiple passes on a weekly basis.
Marshall at Western Kentucky
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Western Kentucky -10.5
O/U: 63.5
Marshall
Expected Team Total Points: 26.5
Analysis: WR Davonte Allen (5,600) was expected to be Marshall’s top receiver coming into this year. Though he got off to a slow start, Allen has really stepped up in the team’s last three contests, amassing 25 catches, 415 yards, and two touchdowns in that time. In that span, Allen has seen 18, 16, and 8 targets – an average of roughly 14 per game.
Recommendation: Davonte Allen has a nice floor, and should have no trouble hitting value at his reasonable price. Allen should be targeted often this week as Marshall looks to keep pace with Western Kentucky’s high octane offense. Allen should be in consideration for both cash and GPP lineups. Allen’s quarterback, Chase Litton (6,800) is one of the more reasonably priced quarterback options that possesses solid upside. We don’t think he’s safe enough to use in cash games, but is a good target in tournaments, as he could produce at an elite level if this game turns into a shootout.
Western Kentucky
Expected Team Total Points: 37
Analysis: Marshall is undoubtedly one of the better defenses that QB Brandon Doughty (9,100) will face this season. The Thundering Herd are only allowing 185.8 pass yards per game, but they haven’t faced any quarterback on par with Doughty. In the two toughest tests that the Marshall defense faced, both Middle Tennessee State’s Brent Stockstill and Southern Miss’s Nick Mullens eclipsed 300 yards through the air. Outside of those two games, Marshall has faced very poor competition at quarterback. Doughty’s numbers have been sub-par in recent weeks due to Western Kentucky facing very poor competition that has allowed the team to build a big lead and ease off the gas relatively early on. Marshall should at the very least keep this game close deep into the second half. Doughty will spread the ball around to his many talented receivers, but the leader amongst them is WR Taywan Taylor (7,900). Taylor is up to 14 receiving touchdowns this year and has scored in all but two games. TE Tyler Higbee (4,500) was a top target of Doughty’s prior to going down with a knee injury in Mid-October. Higbee dressed for the first time since then last week, but did not see the field. His status for this Friday’s game is uncertain, but Coach Brian Brohm stated that they ‘are hopeful he (Higbee) will be back.’
Recommendation: Doughty is one of the best cash game options in this slate, especially considering how much uncertainty surrounds many of the higher priced options at quarterback. Pairing him with Taywan Taylor could result in fireworks, but we feel that that stack is best suited in GPPs – as Taylor does not see nearly as many targets as most teams’ number one receivers. Tyler Higbee’s price is unfortunately too high to consider using him at tight end, even if he is cleared to play. If Higbee were to be ruled out, back-up TE Tim Gorski (2,300) would be a viable punt at the tight end position.
Navy at Houston
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -1.0
O/U: 63.5
Navy
Expected Team Total Points: 31.25
Analysis: Against Houston, QB Keenan Reynolds (8,400) will face what is statistically the best run defense that he will see all season, as the Cougars only allow 114.8 yards per game on the ground – 12th best in the FBS. Against Memphis, the only other top 50 run defense that Navy has faced, Reynolds only ran for 38 yards on 17 carries.
Recommendation: Reynolds has had an amazing career at Navy and could potentially close out his senior season with a Heisman Trophy Presentation invite. His path this week to a huge fantasy game however, is through multiple goal line scores, as a gaudy yardage total likely won’t be there. We feel that he’s best utilized in tournaments.
Houston
Expected Team Total Points: 32.25
Analysis: Both QB Greg Ward (8,700) and backup QB Kyle Postma (6,300) are dealing with injuries heading into Friday’s game against Navy. Ward has been dealing with an ankle injury, while Postma has a bruised knee. Houston’s beat writer Joseph Duarte stated in a chat that he held Wednesday that he believes that Ward will start, but that shouldn’t be considered anything more than an educated guess. RB Kenneth Farrow (7,300) is dealing with a foot injury, and though he was scheduled to practice Tuesday, he did not do so. Duarte stated (in the aforementioned chat) that he feels that ‘right now it’s 50-50 on his (Farrow’s) availability. Regardless, Farrow would face a tough matchup against Navy’s defense that is only allowing 130.6 yards per game on the ground.
Recommendation: Greg Ward Jr. has as much upside as any quarterback in this slate, but comes with significant risk. Last week, he warmed up with the starters, but ended up only playing late in the fourth quarter after Kyle Postma left with injury. We’d have to receive very firm confirmation on his status to consider Ward for cash games. Farrow isn’t a very appealing option even if he is cleared. His backup, RB Javin Webb (5,500) would see a heavy workload if Farrow were to be ruled out, but Webb is not nearly as talented as Farrow, and overall isn’t a very appealing option in this slate.
Western Michigan at Toledo
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Toledo -8
O/U: 61
Western Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 26.5
Analysis: The Toledo defense has been stout against the run all season, only allowing two running backs to cross the 100 yard threshold on the ground in the first 10 games they have played. The Rockets have been far more generous against the pass, giving up an average of 262.4 yards per game through the air. QB Zach Terrell (8,100) has thrown for at least 275 yards in each of Western Michigan’s last five games and has an 8:2 touchdown to interception ratio in that span. In WMU’s last two games, both losses, Terrell has averaged 38.5 pass attempts, and the expectation is that he should be forced to throw often again this week in a game that WMU is an eight point underdog. WR Corey Davis (7,700) has reasserted himself as the ‘Alpha’ at receiver for WMU since #MACtion play began. Whereas teammate WR Daniel Braverman (7,400) began the year dominating from a statistical perspective, Davis has reeled off five straight 100 yard receiving games and is averaging 13 targets per game over that period. The main concern for this game is that there is an 80 percent chance of rain at the time of kickoff at The Glass Bowl, and the poor weather is expected to continue throughout the day.
Recommendation: Corey Davis is one of the most bankable receiving options in this slate. He has consistently produced, has a good matchup, and only has to contend with fellow receiver Daniel Braverman for passes, as the two see an incredible 67 percent of the team’s targets. While we still like both Davis, and his quarterback Terrell, to have solid games, the poor weather likely limits their upside, as WMU may try to run the ball more than normal to combat the awful conditions. This factor is enough to have us off of Terrell in cash games.
Toledo
Expected Team Total Points: 34.5
Analysis: RB Kareem Hunt (8,200) struggled with injuries for much of 2015, but has shown marked improvement since the calendar has flipped to November. Over his last three games, Hunt has averaged roughly 25 carries and 135 yards per game, scoring two touchdowns in each contest. Western Michigan has gotten gashed in each of its last two games, surrendering 236 and 285 yards rushing to Bowling Green and Northern Illinois, respectively.
Recommendation: Kareem Hunt is one of the best running backs to build around in this slate. He should see plenty of carries and the Toledo passing game is potent enough to keep Western Michigan’s defense honest. Though the Toledo trio of receivers (Corey Jones, Cody Thompson, and Alonzo Russell) are all cheaply priced, none of them see enough targets for us to feel comfortable recommending them in cash games. WR Alonzo Russell (5,200) has been the best of the bunch lately, and is worth consideration in tournaments.
Kent State at Akron
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Akron -10.5
O/U: 40
Kent State
Expected Team Total Points: 14.75
Simply put, we aren’t considering using any Kent State players in this slate. The Golden Flashes have struggled to score all season, as evidenced by the fact that all of their available players are minimum priced.
Akron
Expected Team Total Points: 25.25
Analysis: WR Jerome Lane (6,600) and WR Imani Davis (5,200) are the top two receivers for Akron. Davis sees a few more targets than Lane – 22 percent of the team’s targets for Davis vs. 18 percent for Lane. Lane is utilized on more deep routes and is more of a threat to score – as evidenced by his 8 to 3 edge in touchdowns.
Recommendation: In what is projected to be a low scoring game, we are not overly excited about either Akron receiver. Lane has not recorded a 100 yard game this season and would have to score at least once to hit value. While Davis sees a good amount of targets, his upside is also limited by his role in this offense as mostly a possession receiver. Overall, this is a game to avoid.
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 1:00 PM EST
Spread: Central Michigan -24
O/U: 56.5
Eastern Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 16.25
RB Darius Jackson (6,200) got off to a strong start this season with five 100 yard rushing performances in EMU’s first eight games. Teams appear to be loading up the box against him, as he’s the team’s only real weapon, and Jackson’s production has dropped off in recent weeks, as he hasn’t topped 100 yards in any of EMU’s last three contests. With Central Michigan likely to be locked in on Jackson, he’s not a great bet for a big game this week. TE Cody Tuttle (2,600) hasn’t caught a touchdown pass this year, but has recorded at least three targets and two catches in each of EMU’s last five games. There’s limited upside here, but Tuttle has as floor of at least a couple of catches, which isn’t terrible for a modestly priced tight end.
Central Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 40.25
QB Cooper Rush (7,700) has thrown for over 300 yards in back to back games and should find success this week against the dreadful Eastern Michigan defense. The problem is that the main weakness that EMU has is that their run defense ranks as the worst in the country by a substantial margin. By this point, it’s well known that running the ball is the most effective way to beat EMU, and Central Michigan will likely look to exploit this. Rush will likely have a solid day, but we expect the Central Michigan offense to be more balanced this week than it has been recently, hurting Rush’s chances for a big day. Rush’s top receiver WR Jesse Kroll (5,600) has seen 25 targets the past two weeks, resulting in back to back 100 yard receiving performances. Even if Central Michigan opts for a more balanced attack this week, Kroll sees enough targets that has a good chance to hit value at his reasonable of price.
Troy at Georgia State
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 2:00 PM EST
Spread: Georgia State -1
O/U: 59.5
Troy
Expected Team Total Points: 29.25
The main Troy options, QB Brandon Silvers (7,400) and RB Brandon Burks (5,600), look to be priced up a bit in consideration for the matchup they have against Georgia State. Silvers has only once thrown for 300 yards this season – two games ago against Louisiana Monroe. Silvers has generally performed well in good matchups this year, scoring over 20 fantasy points against UL Monroe, New Mexico State, and Louisiana Lafayette. He did struggle against South Alabama and Idaho though – two matchups that he should have been able to take advantage of. Overall, we feel that he has a good chance of hitting value, but does not offer the upside of many quarterbacks in this slate. Brandon Burks has only exceeded 20 fantasy points once this season, and has only recorded 20 carries on one occasion as well. Georgia State has a porous run defense, but we’re not overly excited about the prospects of Burks having a big day.
Georgia State
Expected Team Total Points: 30.25
Troy boasts one of the better pass defenses in the country, only allowing 182.5 yards per game through the air – 18th best in the FBS. QB Nick Arbuckle 8,400 hasn’t faced very many difficult tests this season, but he struggled mightily against the only other top 20 pass defense he’s seen (when he faced off with Appalachian State on October 10th). In that game, Arbuckle only threw for 166 yards – easily his worst performance of the year. He’s thrown for over 300 yards eight times this season, largely because he’s asked throw 38.4 times per game, and he could once again have a big game, but we feel he’s best only considered for tournaments. Though WR Penny Hart 6,100 was Arbuckle’s top target early in the season, WR Donovan Harden 4,900 has returned from an injury that kept him out of action for all of September, and has been seeing an increased role of late. Last week Harden caught seven passes for 94 yards on 15 targets and the week before Harden pulled in five balls for 58 yards and two scores. Harden’s price makes him one of our favorite cheap receivers to target in this slate.
Missouri at Arkansas
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 2:30 PM EST
Spread: Arkansas -14
O/U: 46
Missouri
Expected Team Total Points: 16
We don’t feel that there is anyone worth considering on Missouri this week. The Tigers have only scored four offensive touchdowns in their last six games, which is such a sad contrast to the many years of high flying offenses that Gary Pinkel led throughout his storied tenure.
Arkansas
Expected Team Total Points: 30
Whereas last week many of the Arkansas skill players were underpriced in a favorable matchup against Mississippi State, this Friday the Razorbacks have been priced up, and this time around the matchup is far more daunting. Missouri boasts one of the best defenses in the country, only allowing 300 total yards per game. QB Brandon Allen (8,800) and RB Alex Collins (7,200) are unlikely to perform well enough to justify their prices, and TE Hunter Henry (4,300) is doubtful to have a big enough game to justify his relatively enormous salary (for a tight end).
Boise State at San Jose State
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Boise State -7.5
O/U: 58.5
Boise State
Expected Team Total Points: 33
Analysis: Boise State has now lost back to back games and QB Brett Rypien (7,700) looks to have hit the freshman wall. His yardage totals have been fine, but Rypien’s efficiency has waned, as he only completed 47.9 percent of his passes against Air Force. The matchup against San Jose State’s top ranked pass defense isn’t as difficult as it appears on the surface, as the Spartans have largely benefited from facing backup quarterbacks, Option offenses, and run-based attacks. Still, with Rypien struggling, and a matchup with San Jose State’s defense that that is allowing 207.9 rush yards per game, we expect Boise State to center their gameplan around RB Jeremy McNichols (8,900). McNichols has been the picture of consistency this season: scoring at least one touchdown in every game in which he has played, and topping 100 yards rushing in each of Boise State’s last six games. The 40 passes that he’s caught this season also highlights how valuable McNichols is in the passing game. It would be very surprising if McNichols didn’t see at least 20 touches in this game. With the rise of Brett Rypien, WR Thomas Sperbeck (8,500) has ascended to become one of the most consistent receivers in the country. Sperbeck has been targeted relentlessly by Rypien – seeing an incredible 48 balls thrown his way in just the last two games alone. Two weeks ago against New Mexico, Sperbeck was otherworldly, hauling in 20 catches for 281 yards. Even when Boise State mostly struggled last Friday against Air Force, Sperbeck still recorded seven catches for 79 yards and a touchdown.
Recommendation: McNichols is our favorite option at running back in this slate. Our expectation is that Boise State lean on him as they look to snap their two game losing streak. He’s a player to build your lineup around. Thomas Sperbeck has a very high floor most weeks because of the number of targets he sees, but this may be a week to look elsewhere, as he is the highest priced receiver in this slate, and faces a stingy pass defense.
San Jose State
Expected Team Total Points: 25.5
Analysis: RB Tyler Ervin (8,100) has given us two of the best fantasy performances of the 2015 season, rushing for 263 yards New Mexico and 300 yards against Fresno State. While Ervin has been productive in other games as well, including a 114 yard performance last week against Hawaii, he has struggled to hit value when facing matchups that aren’t necessarily in his favor. Though Boise State’s defense has given up 523 yards rushing the past two weeks, both of those games were against teams that run ‘The Option.’ Those 523 yards make up 41 percent of the rushing total that the Broncos have allowed all season, highlighting just how stingy the team has been against traditional offenses. QB Kenny Potter (8,200) is coming off of a huge game against Hawaii in which he threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and additionally rushed for 49 yards and two more scores. Potter also has solid games this year against Nevada, UNLV, and New Mexico, but has performed ordinarily in tougher tests against BYU and San Diego State – only averaging 130 yards passing in those two games.
Recommendation: Tyler Ervin does not appear to be one of the better values in this slate, and we don’t feel that he’s primed in this matchup for a huge performance. Kenny Potter is priced up following his big game against Hawaii. If San Jose State is to have success in this game it will likely be due to their quarterback playing well, but Potter’s struggles against stellar defenses have us shying away from him.
Iowa at Nebraska
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Iowa -1.5
O/U: 58
Iowa
Expected Team Total Points: 29.75
Analysis: QB C.J. Beathard (6,900) has been solid for Iowa this season, throwing 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions, while also adding six scores with his legs. Though he hasn’t thrown for 300 yards passing in a game in 2015 thus far that may change this weekend against the Nebraska defense that allows 305 yards passing per game. Nebraska has statistically been solid against the run this season, but that’s largely attributable to teams choosing to attack their brutal pass defense. While we do expect Iowa to be able to run the ball in this matchup, both RB Leshun Daniels (6,300) and RB Jordan Canzeri (6,300) are healthy, and are effectively splitting carries.
Recommendation: Beathard has one of the higher floors of the cheaper quarterbacks in this slate, but his ceiling is likely capped by Iowa’s balanced offense. He could have a decent day against Nebraska’s awful secondary, but he’s still not a very interesting option. Both Iowa running backs are more than capable of blowing up for big games, but they’re also likely to cut into each other’s touches, syphoning value from the other.
Nebraska
Expected Team Total Points: 28.25
QB Tommy Armstrong (8,600) isn’t particularly enticing at his price, but receiver Jordan Westerkamp (6,500) is an interesting tournament option. Iowa’s stingy defense keeps us from recommending Westerkamp in cash at this price, but we expect Armstrong to target him often as Nebraska looks to pull off the upset.
Washington State at Washington
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Washington -7
O/U: 53.5
Washington State
Expected Team Total Points: 23.25
Analysis: The low Over/Under and spread tells us that Vegas does not expect QB Luke Falk (9,500) to suit up for this game. Falk is suffering from what is very likely a concussion. Given how Coach Mike Leach has handled injuries in the past, we should not expect a firm announcement on Falk’s status prior to kickoff. After Falk was knocked out last week against Colorado, QB Peyton Bender (6,600) came on in relief and completed 13 of 22 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. WR River Cracraft (4,900) was in a walking boot last week and has missed Wazzu’s last two games. With Cracraft sidelined, additional targets have gone to WR Gabe Marks (8,000) and WR Dom Williams (7,000) – each of whom have had big games the past two weeks. Marks, in particular has benefited from Cracraft’s absence seeing 32 targets the last weeks, and hauling in 23 of them for 202 yards and three touchdowns. After Bender came on in relief of Falk last week, Marks saw seven of the 22 pass attempts, hauling in four of them – including one for a 16 yard touchdown.
Recommendation: Falk’s potential absence creates a ton of uncertainty in respect to the Washington State offense. The offensive philosophy would likely remained unchanged, but Washington has a tough defense, and Peyton Bender is significantly less polished than Falk. However, the price differential between Falk and Bender is significant, and if we got word in advance of lineup lock that Falk was out, Bender would be in play for both tournaments and cash games. Gabe Marks’s value remains mostly unchanged with respect to who starts at quarterback, as he’s likely to lead the team in targets by a significant margin in any scenario, and is a solid cash game option. Dom Williams likely needs to score at least once to justify his price tag, and we feel that he’s best utilized in tournaments.
Washington
Expected Team Total Points: 30.25
Analysis: QB Jake Browning (6,800) is coming off of an incredibly efficient performance against Oregon State, completing 18 of 20 passes for 211 yards and four touchdowns. Browning’s freshman season has been very up-and-down, but he’s certainly improved during the second half of the season. The matchup against Washington State however lends itself far better to Washington establishing the running game with Browning’s fellow freshman, RB Myles Gaskin (5,700). Gaskin has rushed for over 100 yards in back to back games and now faces a Washington State defense that has allowed a 100 yard rusher in six of their last seven games. One thing to watch is the status of fellow running back, Dwayne Washington – who has missed each of the past two games. Coach Chris Peterson declined to give much of an update concerning the status of Washington stating on Wednesday that “we’ll know in two days.” Even if Washington were to suit up however, he probably wouldn’t take more than 5-7 touches from Gaskin.
Recommendation: Browning has the ability to have a solid game and hit value, but we are targeting Gaskin from this game. The running back is a great bet to see 20 touches and surpass 100 yards for a third straight game, and is a nice cash game option.
