Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 11-19-15, 7:30 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 4 games
East Carolina at UCF
Kickoff: 11-19-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: East Carolina -15
O/U: 54.5
East Carolina
Expected Team Total Points: 34.75
Though ECU only played QB James Summers (6,800) at quarterback in their last game, a defeat at the hands of South Florida, it’s already been stated that both Summers and QB Blake Kemp (5,900) will play this week against UCF, effectively rendering both unplayable. Though RB Chris Hairston (5,100) has a great matchup against a weak UCF run defense, he hasn’t seen 20 touches and hasn’t surpassed 100 yards yet this season. What was encouraging was that last week he did see 13 of the 14 carries allocated to running backs last week against South Florida, but managed to only turn them into 24 yards. If Blake Kemp were to see the majority of playing time at quarterback, it’s possible that the Pirates could lean on Hairston in the running game, but we don’t view him as a preferred option. The return of Blake Kemp certainly means good things for WR Isaiah Jones (5,800), who had his worst game of the year against South Florida (two catches, eight yards), largely due to running quarterback James Summers playing the entirety of the game. Jones has a good chance to bounce back this week against UCF’s poor pass defense, but isn’t one of the higher upside plays in this slate, as he only has three touchdowns this season, and has only exceeded 100 yards receiving once in the last eight games.
Recommendation: Chris Hairston is viable as a tournament option if you are looking to pay up for multiple top tier receivers, but shouldn’t be in consideration for cash games. Isaiah Jones should see a return to relevancy this week with the expectation that Blake Kemp sees significant playing time at quarterback. Jones makes for a decent cash game option, but there are better values because of his projected target allotment, but there are better values if you are looking for a cheaper receiver. TE Bryce Williams 3,000 is the tight end that we recommend if you are looking to avoid using a minimum priced option. Williams was previously classified on FanDuel as a wide receiver, and is mostly utilized as one, often lining up out wide. He is no higher than third in the pecking order for targets, but he’s seen at least four passes thrown his way every game this season and has the highest floor of any tight end in this slate.
UCF
Expected Team Total Points: 19.75
Analysis: UCF’s offense has generally been a disaster this season. The Knights are only averaging 279 yards of offense per game in 2015 – second worst in the FBS. The only player that we see of any interest from a fantasy perspective is WR Tre’quan Smith (5,200). Smith has seen at least 10 targets each of the last three games, and is averaging 6.33 catches and 93 yards over that span.
Recommendation: Smith is worth considering as a cheaper option, but his upside is limited by the general ineptitude of the Knights offense.
UL Monroe at Texas State
Kickoff: 11-19-15, 9:30 PM EST
Spread: Texas State -6.5
O/U: 65.5
UL Monroe
Expected Team Total Points: 29.5
Analysis: UL Monroe will likely be starting back-up QB Earnest Carrington (5,300) this week against Texas State. Carrington entered last week’s game against Arkansas State after starter Garrett Smith departed with a shoulder injury, and went on to complete five of 19 passes for 75 yards and a touchdown. He also ran for 19 yards and an additional score. UL Monroe boasts a talented group of wide receivers, but the Warhawks are slated to be without WR Rashon Ceaser (5,400). Ceaser amasses over 142 catches and 1,836 yards over the 2013 and 2014 seasons, but has been slowed by an ankle injury this year. In his absence, freshman WR Marcus Green (4,800) has emerged as UL Monroe’s most consistent threat in the passing game. Green has seen at least 10 targets in each of the last four games, and has caught a touchdown in each of the last five. WR Ajalen Holley (5,300) didn’t catch a pass last week, but leads the team in catches and receiving yards. Holley has seen his production decline with the emergence of Green, but is the team’s clear number two option in the passing game, with Ceaser sidelined.
Recommendation: Marcus Green is a nice, affordable option at receiver in this slate. His upside isn’t as great as it would be with Garrett Smith at quarterback, but Green still should see plenty of targets this week. Ajalen Holley is more of a tournament play, due to the recent trend of his production, but could easily exceed value in a game that UL Monroe should be forced to throw the ball 35+ times.
Texas State
Expected Team Total Points: 36
Analysis: Texas State rides running back RB Robert Lowe (8,200) as long as a game remains close. That hasn’t been an especially frequent occurrence this year for the 2-7 Bobcats, but Lowe is still averaging over 16 carries on the year – and 22 over the past four games. The last game that Texas State won, back on October 24th against South Alabama, Lower rushed for 248 yards on 30 carries. UL Monroe’s defense has been one of the worst in the FBS against the run this season, allowing 221.7 yards per game on the ground. At minimum price, WR C.J. Best (4,500) is an intriguing punt play. He’s caught at least five passes in four of his last five games, and is averaging over eight targets in that span.
Recommendation: Lowe is a must-play at running back as the top running back option in this slate. C.J. Best doesn’t have much upside, as he hasn’t a touchdown all season, but his reliable target allotment makes him usable as a minimum priced option.
Cincinnati at USF
Kickoff: 11-20-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Cincinnati -2.5
O/U: 63.5
Cincinnati
Expected Team Total Points: 33
Analysis: The USF defense has only faced one offense that was similar in nature to Cincinnati, squaring off against Memphis way back on October 2nd. Despite pouring rain that night, Paxton Lynch was able to throw for 305 yards. Since retaking the starting quarterback job from Hayden Moore, Cincinnati QB Gunner Kiel (9,100) has thrown for over 300 yards passing and at least two touchdowns in four straight games. WR Shaq Washington (6,300) has been incredibly consistent this season. He’s seen at least eight targets in every single game, and has yet to record less than four catches in any contest. He hasn’t topped 100 yards in any of the last four games, but has made up for it with three touchdowns in that span. WR Chris Moore (6,500) is Cincinnati’s best big play threat, averaging 21.6 yards per catch, and leading the team with six receiving touchdowns. He’s also seen an uptick in targets the past two weeks, averaging 11 in that span versus just over five in the first seven games in which he played.
Recommendation: Kiel is a fine bet to throw over 300 yards for a fifth straight game. He is pricey, but we like his chances of hitting value. This slate has enough value at other positions that you can effectively build both cash and tournament lineups around him. Shaq Washington is a fantastic cash game option as one of the highest floor receivers in this slate, whereas his teammate Chris Moore is an ideal GPP option.
USF
Expected Team Total Points: 30.5
Analysis: RB Marlon Mack (7,600) is coming off of a huge game last week against Temple, running 21 times for 230 yards and two touchdowns. He now faces a Cincinnati defense that has allowed 100 yard rushing performances from tailbacks in three straight games. Though QB Quinton Flowers (8,700) averages 15 carries per game, South Florida runs the ball almost 67% of the time, leaving plenty of carries for Mack.
Recommendation: Mack is an excellent cash game option this week and we fully expect him to have success against the vulnerable Cincinnati run defense. We don’t advise using Flowers in cash games, but feel that his substantial running ability gives him tournament appeal.
Air Force at Boise State
Kickoff: 11-20-15, 9:30 PM EST
Spread: Boise State -12
O/U: 56.5
Air Force
Expected Team Total Points: 22.25
Analysis: Boise State just got upset on their home field by an Option offense (New Mexico) and now welcomes Air Force to town. The Boise State defense has been very stout against the run this season, but the unit gave up a season-high 193 yards on the ground against New Mexico. Air Force QB Karson Roberts (7,700) isn’t much of a runner but has averaged 213.5 yards passing over the past two games. Air Force’s top two running options are RB D.J. Johnson (5,300) and RB Jacobi Owens (5,800). Johnson left last week’s game with a knee injury, and did not return, but there so far isn’t any report of whether or not he will play this week. When Johnson was sidelined earlier this season, Owens saw a major uptick in his usage – averaging 20 carries over that three game span. Last week, WR Jalen Robinette (5,200) had a career day, catching seven passes for 210 yards. Prior to this breakout performance however, Robinette had not hauled in more than three passes in a single game.
Recommendation: If there is any word that D.J. Johnson will miss this game, Jacobi Owens would make for a great tournament option, due to the expected volume that he’d be set to receive. Even in that instance, we still feel that he would be too risky for cash games against the tough Boise State run defense. Jalen Robinette certainly could build off of the big performance he had against Utah State, but he’s far too risky – as a receiver in an option based attack – to consider for cash games. TE Garrett Griffin (2,000) has caught five passes for 66 yards and two touchdowns since returning from injury four games ago, and is our favorite minimum priced tight end.
Boise State
Expected Team Total Points: 34.25
Analysis: QB Brett Rypien (8,500) has only had one bad game as a starter – a disastrous outing on the road against Utah State on October 16th. He’s been scorching hot of late, throwing for 972 yards in Boise State’s last two games alone, averaging 63 pass attempts in that span. While the Broncos may not want their true freshman throwing that much, they may have to lean on him once again, against Air Force’s defense that has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in its past five games. Boise State’s top RB Jeremy McNichols (9,100) has rolled off five straight 100 yard rushing games, and has been utilized heavily in the passing game of late, catching eight passes this past week. WR Thomas Sperbeck (8,800) is coming off of a record-breaking performance, catching 20 passes for 281 yards against New Mexico. Air Force just gave up a 13 catch, 193 yard, 3 touchdown day to Utah State’s top receiver (Hunter Sharp).
Recommendation: We consider Rypien to be the second most bankable quarterback in this slate, behind Gunner Kiel, and like him as a solid cash game option. Jeremy McNichols should have a decent day, despite the tough matchup, but we prefer Robert Lowe and Marlon Mack – both of whom have much easier matchups – in cash games. Thomas Sperbeck is the clear class of the wide receiver options in this slate, and we expect a big game from him on Friday.