Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 11-12-15, 7:30 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 3 games
Louisiana Lafayette at South Alabama
Kickoff: 11-12-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: South Alabama -3
O/U: 61
Louisiana Lafayette
Expected Team Total Points: 29
RB Elijah McGuire – 7,900
Analysis: Elijah McGuire has largely failed to build on his 2014 success, only surpassing the 100 yard mark on two occasions this season. The running game has really struggled of late, with only quarterback Jalen Nixon finding real success on the ground. Coach Mark Hudspeth talked this week about how the team needs to get both McGuire and the running game in general going. The cure for what ills the Rajun Cajuns potentially comes in the form of the South Alabama defense, who have over their last three games have allowed an average of 241 yards rushing.
Recommendation: McGuire is shaping up as a very tough fade this week. Though he’s struggled this season, the matchup is as good as could be hoped for. He needs to be in your tournament lineups, as he has maybe the highest upside of any player in this slate, and is recommended for cash games too, if you can hit him in.
WR Jamal Robinson – 5,300
Analysis: Robinson has scored three times in the last three games that he has suited up in. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game, though his production hasn’t been overly reliable with Louisiana Lafayette juggling quarterbacks throughout the season. Brooks Haack, the quarterback with the better passing ability, is expected to start this week, and though both quarterbacks will play, that bodes well for the team’s best receiver.
Recommendation: If you are looking for a cheaper receiver that doesn’t have a rock bottom floor and has decent upside, Robinson is someone you should consider. The Louisiana Lafayette passing game hasn’t been great this season, but Robinson at least sees consistent targets.
South Alabama
Expected Team Total Points: 32
None of the South Alabama options are particularly appealing this week. Tight end Gerald Everett (4,400) is the team’s best receiver, but we don’t feel that it’s justifiable to pay that price for a tight end, with such little affordable talent available at the other positions. Running back Xavier Johnson (6,700) makes for an interesting GPP play – he’s gone over 90 yards rushing on less than 10 carries three times this season – but he doesn’t receive a reliable enough workload to have us considering him for cash games.
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
Kickoff: 11-12-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia Tech -3.5
O/U: 53.5
Virginia Tech
Expected Team Total Points: 25
RB Travon McMillian – 7,600
Analysis: Since getting his first start against NC State a month ago, McMillian has done nothing but impress – rushing for at least 96 yards in each of those four games. The most commendable effort came in Virginia Tech’s last game against Boston College’s FBS best run defense when McMillian rushed for 105 yards on 33 carries. This week’s matchup against Georgia Tech is much softer – the Yellow Jackets are allowing 172 yards per game via the ground.
Recommendation: McMillian has seen his carry total rise each of the last four games from 11 to 16 to 29 to 33. While the coaching staff has stated that he probably won’t be seeing 33 carries again, as they need to keep him fresh, McMillian’s heavy workload makes him an ideal cash game play.
WR Isaiah Ford – 5,800
Analysis: Isaiah Ford has averaged nine targets per game this season, good for second most in the ACC. Though he hasn’t exploded for many big games, Ford has recorded at least 50 receiving yards in all but two games this season. With Michael Brewer back at quarterback, the passing game at Virginia Tech, the passing game is far more reliable week to week than it was while Brenden Motley was filling in.
Recommendation: Ford isn’t the most exciting player, but he is the cheapest receiving option that we feel still has a reliable weekly output. He has a good chance of hitting value, but a huge game probably shouldn’t be expected.
Georgia Tech
Expected Team Total Points: 28.5
WR Ricky Jeune – 5,100
Analysis: Jeune has filled the role of the quintessential tall, deep ball catching Georgia Tech receiver. It’s a title rich in tradition held previously by known commodities such as Demaryius Thomas, Stephen Hill, Darren Waller, and DeAndre Smelter. It’s taken some time to get Jeune going, as he only caught one pass in each of the first two games of 2015. He’s now up to 20 grabs, 422 yards, and three touchdowns on the year - averaging over 21 yards per catch – and turned in his best performance of the year in the Yellow Jackets’ last game, hauling in five passes for 103 yards.
Recommendation: The 6’3” 214 pound Jeune is undoubtedly a risky target playing in an option offense, but he is essentially the team’s only true deep threat. At 5,100, he offers affordable upside in tournaments.
USC at Colorado
Kickoff: 11-13-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: USC -16.5
O/U: 61.5
USC
Expected Team Total Points: 39
QB Cody Kessler – 8,100
Analysis: Kessler has seen his statistical output regress amidst the turmoil at USC this season. In three games since a solid effort against Notre Dame - in which USC had to throw often in an attempt to come back - Kessler has only averaged 231 yards passing, and has only thrown three total touchdowns in that span. He’s also ran for -47 yards in that time, though he’s never been known for being fleet of feet. USC has certainly been banged up at receiver, with tertiary receivers Darreus Rogers and Steven Mitchell missing time with injury, and Juju Smith playing through a broken hand, and the team has become increasingly reliant on their running game of late. 58% of the Trojans’ yards have come via the air in the last three games versus 66% in the first six games.
Recommendation: Kessler should have a decent game this week, but we’re not expecting the stratospheric numbers he posted earlier this season. Colorado’s defense has been much weaker against the run than the pass this season, and USC should be looking to exploit this. Though in a vacuum, Kessler is still no lower than the second best option at quarterback in this slate, we prefer to pass on his pricey salary.
RB Ronald Jones – 7,200
Analysis: It’s been evident all year that Jones is very talented, rushing for 593 yards and seven touchdowns on only 70 carries in the first seven games of the year. Then, this past weekend against Arizona, Jones finally saw more than 15 carries for the first time all season. The result was a true breakout, as the freshman rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown. Following that outburst, when USC released its depth chart for this week’s game, Jones was listed as ‘co-starter’ at running back with Justin Davis and Tre Madden, while he’d previously been labeled a reserve. Wednesday, news broke that Madden will miss this week’s game, leaving only Justin Davis as a threat to cut into Jones’s workload. The Colorado defense has allowed a 100 yard rusher in each of its last four games.
Recommendation: Jones may not get the guaranteed 20 carries that we tend to look for in a cash game running back option, but we feel that he should have little trouble cracking the 100 yard barrier this Friday. The ‘co’ in his ‘co-starter’ title is likely just a ceremonial nod to the upperclassmen Davis and Madden, and the expectation is that Jones will be given the chance to run away with the job this week. The matchup, as noted above, is a good one, and with USC likely playing from well ahead throughout this game, the Trojans should be in a position to get Jones carries throughout the game. Lock Jones into your lineups.
WR Juju Smith-Schuster – 8,400
Analysis: Juju Smith-Schuster has accounted for 40 percent of USC’s receiving yards this season, and that number jumps to 48 percent if we consider only the past three games. Incredibly, Smith-Schuster broke his hand on Halloween against Cal, but played this past week against Arizona. He said he felt “a lot” of pain during the game, but you wouldn’t know from his stat line of eight catches for 138 yards and a touchdown. This week at practice, Smith-Schuster has been running routes, but has not been catching passes – though his plan is to do so on Thursday, and he’s fully planning on playing Friday.
Recommendation: Though Smith-Schuster is essentially playing with one hand, he should still be counted on to have a nice game, as he’s undoubtedly the top option in the passing game. He’s by far the best option amongst receivers in cash games, but makes sense as a fade in GPPs, as there is a real chance he could re-injure his hand, or just be unable to tolerate the pain.
Colorado
Expected Team Total Points: 22.5
QB Sefo Liufau – 7,500
Analysis: Sefo Liufau hasn’t been as statistically prolific in 2015 as he was last year, as Colorado has been far more balanced this season – averaging 183 yards rushing in 2015 versus only 155 yards in 2014. Liufau has thrown for over 300 yards three times in Colorado’s last five games – with all three of those efforts coming in games in which Colorado fell behind and had to throw often in an attempt to come back. USC hasn’t allowed a team to run for more than 120 yards in any of its last three games, but has allowed at least 250 yards passing, and two touchdown through the air, in each of those games.
Recommendation: We like Liufau a lot this week. Colorado is a 16.5 point underdog and should be forced to throw often on Friday. He’s a good bet to throw for 300 yards, and should add some value on the ground, as he’s averaging 25.6 yards rushing per game in 2015. The quarterback options on the whole are not very appealing in this slate, but Liufau is our bet to have the best day of the bunch.
WR Nelson Spruce – 6,500
Analysis: Spruce has been incredibly reliable for Colorado this season, catching at least 5 passes and totaling over 60 yards in every game so far. Spruce’s shortcoming, however, has been that he’s only scored two touchdowns in 2015, after reaching pay dirt 12 times last year. Colorado’s other top receiver, Shay Fields, had to leave last week’s game due to a nagging high-ankle sprain. He’s questionable to play this week and quarterback Sefo Liufau has stated “I’m pretty sure he’ll be back (this week). I've seen him out there practicing."
Recommendation: Even if Fields suits up, Spruce is a great cash game option, given his nice floor.
TE Sean Irwin – 2,000
We’re recommending a complete punt at tight end this week, as the three higher priced options (Ryan Malleck, Bucky Hodges, and Gerald Everett) just don’t leave you with enough salary cap to work with considering the lack of value at the other positions. While Sean Irwin didn’t record a catch last week, he has at least one catch in seven separate games this season. With Colorado likely chucking it 40 or more times this week, a couple of those targets should go Irwin’s way.