Thursday Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 11-5-15, 7:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 6 games
Buffalo at Kent State
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Buffalo -2.5
O/U: 46.5
Buffalo
Expected Team Total Points: 24.5
RB Jordan Johnson – 8,200 RB Anthone Taylor – 4,500
Analysis: Jordan Johnson has been serving as the lead back for Buffalo the past two weeks with Anthone Taylor recovering from a leg injury, and has performed admirably in that role, topping 100 yards in both games. Taylor was able to return last week, but only accounted for 29 yards on 10 carries spelling Johnson. Whereas last week Taylor wasn’t even listed on the depth chart, as his availability was unclear, he is listed as the number two running back heading into a battle with Kent State’s defense that is only allowing 118 yards per game on the ground.
Recommendation: We’re considering Jordan Johnson a GPP option this week and would much prefer to build around the similarly priced Marcus Cox, if forced to choose between the two. Our expectation is that Anthone Taylor will continue to be worked more back into the gameplan, cutting into Johnson’s role, and if that is the case then it will be difficult for Johnson to hit value at his price tag of 8,200. While the reality is that we will not have an entirely clear idea of how the two running backs will be used prior to kickoff, at 4,500 Taylor is in play if you are looking to punt a running back slot in a GPP lineup.
TE Matt Weiser – 2,900 TE Mason Schreck – 2,100
Analysis: Weiser has been one of the most consistent tight end options in the country this season, catching at least four balls in each of Buffalo’s last five games. Schreck is the team’s second tight end, but since Buffalo runs a lot of two tight end sets, Schreck sees more playing time most back-up tight ends would.
Recommendation: Weiser’s price is very fair at 2,900. He is overall top tight end in the slate, as well as the best value at the position, and we recommend you using him if you have room to do so. Schreck is usually good for a couple of targets per game and is an option if you are looking to punt at tight end. Assuming he is cleared to suit up, Mississippi State’s Gus Walley, who has been out with a wrist injury in recent weeks, would make a fine punt play as well.
Kent State
Expected Team Total Points: 22
We’re not seeing any options on Kent State that warrant serious consideration. The Golden Flashes come in at 123rd in the FBS, only averaging 298 yards per game, and put up a paltry 15.8 points per contest.
Ball State at Western Michigan
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Western Michigan -14.5
O/U: 62.5
Ball State
Expected Team Total Points: 24
WR Jordan Williams – 5,300 WR Chris Shillings – 4,500
Analysis: Jordan Williams is the clear top option in the Ball State passing game. He’s caught at least six passes in each of Ball State’s last six games and also serves as the team’s top touchdown making receiver, leading the team with six scores through the air. Additionally, he leads the MAC in targets, with 110 of the year. Chris Shillings should step into a bigger role this week, with Ball State’s usual third receiving option, Corey Lacanaria, being suspended. Lacanaria was averaging seven targets per game, and Shillings should see a similar allocation this week.
Recommendation: Williams should be locked into your cash game lineups, as we consider him a great value at this price. Shillings is a punt option at a receiver spot.
Western Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 38.5
QB Zach Terrell – 8,200
Analysis: Terrell has been one of the more consistent quarterbacks in the country this season. Prior to last week, he had thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game in 2015, and the goose egg last Thursday against Eastern Michigan was made up for by 72 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Eastern Michigan outing was also highlighted by Terrell’s receivers getting taken down multiple times inside the five yard line, and Western Michigan choosing to take advantage of EMU’s FBS worst rushing defense to the tune of six rushing touchdowns. This week expect the gameplan to be more skewed toward the aerial attack against Ball State’s defense that is allowing 293.7 passing yards per game.
Recommendation: Terrell will likely have low ownership considering how similarly priced he is to Jarrett Stidham, and represents an intriguing GPP pivot off of the Baylor quarterback.
WR Daniel Braverman – 8,200 WR Corey Davis – 6,300
Analysis: Despite a disappointing effort last week against Eastern Michigan, Daniel Braverman is still second in the country in catches, with 80 to his credit. Corey Davis eclipsed the 100 yard mark for a second straight week in the game against Eastern Michigan and looks to be rounding into form following a disappointing beginning to the season. We consider Davis and Braverman to be very similarly talented. Both see over 30 percent of Western Michigan’s targets – an unheard of rate for teammates. Braverman tends to see more targets close to the line of scrimmage, while Davis sees more deep balls – which is the main reason for the sizable difference in catches between the two. Don’t be too concerned about the lack of touchdowns in recent weeks for Davis, as he was twice hauled down inside the Eastern Michigan five yard line last week.
Recommendation: The sizable price difference between Davis and Braverman makes Davis the easy call here. Braverman is still a good option and we expect both to have nice games, but Davis is the superior choice from a lineup construction standpoint.
Arkansas State at Appalachian State
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Appalachian State -10.5
O/U: 62
Arkansas State
Expected Team Total Points: 25.75
Fredi Knighten spreads the ball around too much in his limited pass attempts to bank on any Arkansas State’s receivers. Arkansas State also utilizes a trio of running backs, none of which averages more than 13 carries per game. The Appalachian State defense is allowing only 122.8 rushing yards per game though, so none of the Arkansas State running backs are on the table in cash games.
Appalachian State
Expected Team Total Points: 36.25
RB Marcus Cox – 8,000
Analysis: Cox has been an absolute rock for Appalachian State this year, running for at least 75 yards in every game, and only failing to eclipse 100 yards in two outings. He’s really stepped up his usage since conference play began four games ago, averaging 23 carries and 107 yards in that span. Even if the matchup isn’t perfect, as Arkansas State is only allowing 150.9 rush yards per game, Cox should find success in a game that Appalachian State should be playing from ahead. He should at minimum bulk-carry his way over the 100 yard threshold and has a good chance to score against a defense that has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns in their eight games to date.
Recommendation: We like Cox as a great cash game building block.
Baylor at Kansas State
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -17.5
O/U: 69.5
Baylor
Expected Team Total Points: 43.5
QB Jarrett Stidham – 8,400
Analysis: True freshman Jarrett Stidham will be taking over the quarterback position for Baylor, with Seth Russell being lost for the season due to a neck injury. Stidham was rated as one of the top quarterback recruits in the 2015 class, and brings a cannon arm and solid wheels. He has amazingly seen playing time in every single game this season in relief of Russell, as a result of Baylor having their first seven games well in hand prior to the final whistle. Most of that action has been just running out the clock, but his stats are still impressive: completing 24 of 28 passes for 331 yards and six touchdowns. This matchup appears similar to the one UCLA’s Josh Rosen encountered in his first career start against Virginia. Yes, there appeared to be risk, but Rosen proved how special of a talent he is in his debut, throwing for 350 yards and three scores. We’re expecting Stidham to rise to the occasion as well.
Recommendation: Normally we wouldn’t recommend a true freshman making his first career start, but Stidham is an exception. We’re not expecting Baylor to ease Stidham in, and on the contrary, Baylor should be throwing more often than usual, as Kansas State has been particularly stout against the run this year, allowing only 147.4 rush yards per game. In recent weeks, Kansas State’s defense has allowed big games to Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, and Trevone Boykin – and now it’s Stidham’s turn.
RB Shock Linwood – 8,800
Analysis: We’ve yet to see how the Baylor offense will look with Jarrett Stidham at the helm, but it’s safe to say that not too much will change. Shock Linwood will still be heavily featured as the primary ball carrier in this explosive offense, and he has been gashing defenses in recent weeks, going for over 130 yards rushing in four of Baylor’s last five games. Prior to Kansas State’s last game that was played in a downpour against Texas, in which Jonathan Gray managed to churn out 103 yards on the ground, Kansas State had only allowed one 100 yard rushing game to a running back on the season.
Recommendation: We’re expecting that Kansas State will gameplan to make true freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham beat them this week, likely stacking the box against Linwood at least until Stidham proves up to the test. At this price, and considering the matchup, we like Linwood more in tournaments than in cash games. His ceiling is higher than any other running back’s, but it’s also possible that he doesn’t reach it, and hamstrings the rest of your lineup as a result.
WR Corey Coleman – 9,200 WR KD Cannon 5,500 WR Jay Lee – 5,500
Analysis: In 2015, Coleman has been in a tier of receiver that is essentially comprised of just himself and TCU’s Josh Doctson. He leads the FBS in touchdown receptions, despite Baylor already having two byes in the season’s first nine weeks. KD Cannon has gotten off to a relatively slow start this season, only scoring two touchdowns on 22 catches, despite profiling mostly as a deep threat last year as a freshman. The good news is that Cannon has seen a whopping 25 targets in Baylor’s last two games, many of which have come on quick screens, giving him a path to easy catches. Jay Lee has seen his role in the offense go the opposite route of Cannon’s. After 22 targets and 12 catches in Baylor’s first two games, Lee has only caught a total of 10 passes in the last five games.
Recommendation: Considering the value available in this slate, working Coleman into your lineup is feasible without having to punt entirely at other positions. We obviously don’t yet know what this iteration of the Baylor offense will look like, and if Jarrett Stidham will continue to force feed Coleman like Seth Russell did, but it’s safe to assume that the star receiver will be seeing plenty of looks this Thursday. Jay Lee is purely a GPP option in this slate, and while we like Cannon as a WR3, especially in tournaments, the similarly priced Jordan Williams (from Ball State) is a far safer option.
Kansas State
Expected Team Total Points: 26
The Kansas State offense has looked horrid in recent weeks. Since losing a heartbreaker against TCU, the Wildcats have only amassed 9 points in total against Oklahoma and Texas. This general ineptitude has us struggling to place much faith in any player on this roster.
Mississippi State at Missouri
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: Mississippi State -7.5
O/U: 42
Mississippi State
Expected Team Total Points: 24.25
QB Dak Prescott – 10,700
Analysis: Prescott is coming off of one of the most statistically impressive performances of 2015 against Kentucky, throwing for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns, while running for 117 yards and another three scores. He faces an extremely tough test this week in a stingy Missouri pass defense that is only allowing 161.6 yards per game and has yet to allow any opponent to throw for more than 300 yards in a game.
Recommendation: Prescott is unusable in cash games considering the matchup and his exorbitant price. We’re not recommending him as anything other than a contrarian tournament play.
Missouri
Expected Team Total Points: 17.25
The Missouri offense has largely been a disaster the past month. Now that Maty Mauk has been suspended for the remainder of 2015, we know that we can expect the same dismally performance going forward. To put the state of affairs in Columbia in perspective: Missouri has not scored a touchdown in its last three games.
Nevada at Fresno State
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 10:30 PM EST
Spread: Nevada -4.5
O/U: 55.5
Nevada
Expected Team Total Points: 30
RB James Butler – 6,800 RB Don Jackson 5,500
Analysis: The Nevada running back duo has one of the most favorable matchups in this slate, facing a Fresno State run defense allowing 239.1 yards per game on the ground. Nevada is also one of the more run-heavy teams in the FBS, averaging 42.5 rush attempts per game. The timeshare that Jackson and Butler engage in is one in which the two generally alternate drives, with Jackson opening as starter. Butler has performed better of late, rushing for over 100 yards in four of the team’s last six games.
Recommendation: Considering how much cheaper Jackson is, he is the recommended play from this backfield in cash games.
Fresno State
Expected Team Total Points: 25.5
RB Marteze Waller – 6,500
Analysis: Waller has been one Fresno State’s lone bright spots this season – even if he hasn’t been shining quite as bright as fans might have hoped. Coming off of a 2014 season in which he averaged almost 100 rushing yards per game, Waller is only churning out 81 yards on average in 2015. This has largely been due to Fresno State having to abandon the run as they’ve fallen far behind in so many contests. Additionally, the fact that the team is on its fourth quarterback probably doesn’t have opponents respecting the passing game. Waller has shown well of late though, averaging 19 carries and 87 yards over Fresno State’s last three games – and he has scored four touchdowns in that span. Nevada has losses this season against Wyoming and UNLV – both of which are bad teams that lean heavily on the running game. The Wolfpack allowed an average of 219.5 yards in those two games.
Recommendation: Waller isn’t overly attractive at this price point. He can hit value if this game stays close, but we feel that at 6,500, you can find better value at running back.
Friday Details:
- Lineup Lock (First Game Kickoff): 11-6-15, 8:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 3 games
Rice at UTEP
Kickoff: 11-6-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Rice -6.5
O/U: 60
Rice
Expected Team Total Points: 33.25
QB Driphus Jackson – 8,700 WR Dennis Parks – 5,100
Rice has been very inconsistent as a team this season, looking very good in recent games against Army and Florida Atlantic, while falling flat against the four more challenging opponents on their schedule (Louisiana Tech, Baylor, Texas, and Western Kentucky). This trend would suggest that Rice could be primed for a nice game against UTEP this week, as the Miners have struggled mightily this season. UTEP has been particularly bad against the pass this season, allowing 299 yards per game. The trend of Rice’s play and solid matchup have us liking a stack of Rice’s quarterback, Driphus Jackson, and top receiver, Dennis Parks in tournaments this week, however neither has been consistent enough for us to recommend them in cash games.
UTEP
Expected Team Total Points: 26.75
RB LaQuintus Dowell – 4,700
It’s interesting that the team total has been set for UTEP at 26.75 points, as the Miners have only exceeded 27 points once in 2015. This team total likely has more to do with Rice’s defense giving up 37.5 points and 447 yards per game on the season. The only player we’re seeing as potentially worth a GPP play is running back LaQuintus Dowell, who is leading the team in rushing despite beginning 2015 as a defensive back. He has 32 carries the past two weeks, and if this game stays close could hit at value.
Temple at SMU
Kickoff: 11-6-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Temple -12.5
O/U: 54.5
Temple
Expected Team Total Points: 33.5
QB P.J. Walker – 7,900
Analysis: This week, Walker faces one of the worst defenses in the FBS in SMU that is allowing 43.6 points 524 yards per game. Walker’s numbers haven’t been eye-popping in 2015, as Temple largely relies on its rushing attack that is spearheaded by Jahad Thomas. Thomas, however, is potentially either going to miss, or be limited in, this week’s game, as he’s struggling with a rib injury. SMU has proven all season that while they have trouble stringing together four quality quarters, they can put up points, and at least force opponents to play their starters deep into games.
Recommendation: It would be very surprising if Temple scored less than 30 points in this game, and we expect Walker to be heavily involved, if only because of the limited availability of Thomas. We like Walker as a cash game play in this soft matchup.
RB Jahad Thomas – 9,900 RB Ryquell Armstead – 4,500
Analysis: Jahad Thomas has had a fantastic year so far as Temple’s workhorse running back, but it appears that the heavy workload might final be catching up to him, as he is banged up with a rib injury. It’s unclear if he suits up for this week’s game, as he’s considered questionable, and in what has the potential to be a blowout, It’s very possible that Thomas won’t see a full workload. Behind Thomas is true freshman Ryquell Armstead, who has rushed for 128 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries. Armstead’s limited role has largely been a result of Thomas accounting for 79 percent of Temple’s rushing yards, but besides these two, no other Temple running back has more than 18 carries on the season.
Recommendation: We don’t consider Thomas a viable cash game play, due to his expensive price tag and question marks surrounding his status. Armstead is someone we are liking as one of the better punt options in this slate. If Thomas sits, he’s an automatic play, but even if Thomas does see action, Armstead should see more run than usual, either as a result of the game turning into a blowout or Thomas being limited to less than his usual role.
WR Robby Anderson – 5,900
Analysis: Anderson’s role on a week to week basis has been inconsistent as he’s worked his way back into game shape following sitting out all of 2014. Despite that, he still leads the Owls in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns. He’s one of the few Temple skill players that isn’t beat up to some degree, with Jahad Thomas and Temple’s other starting receiver, Ventrell Bryant, both being specifically mentioned as dealing with injuries this week.
Recommendation: Anderson stands out as one of the safer options in this slate. We feel confident plugging him into cash game lineups at his reasonable price tag.
SMU
Expected Team Total Points: 21
QB Matt Davis – 8,300
Analysis: Davis has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but between struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness in multiple games, it has a very inconsistent 2015 campaign for Davis. Just this past week against Tulsa, Davis led SMU to two first quarter touchdown drives, hurt his hand, returned, and played poorly for two quarters before finishing the game with a strong fourth quarter. Though Temple’s defense has bene very strong this season, they did give up a huge game last week against duel threat quarterback Deshone Kizer, who threw for 299 yards while running for 143 more yards, against the Owls.
Recommendation: Though Davis could easily blow up for a huge game, we feel that he’s best used in tournaments this week, going up against what is undoubtedly the best defense he will see all season.
WR Courtland Sutton – 7,200
Analysis: Sutton is coming off of a huge game against Tulsa in which he caught eight passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns. He will find a much tougher this week against Temple’s defense that is only allowing 226.3 yards per game through the air. Twice though, Temple has given up big games to taller receivers, like the 6’4” Sutton, as Cincinnati’s McKale McKay (6’5”) and Massachusetts’ Tajae Sharpe (6’3”) each topped 100 yards against the Owls.
Recommendation: Sutton should see plenty of targets this week as SMU looks to keep pace with Temple. We’re not necessarily expecting a huge game, but he is one of the more reliable options in a slate lacking talent at the wide receiver slot.
TE Jeremiah Gaines – 2,600
Analysis: Gaines has reeled off five catches for 62 yards and a touchdown over his last two games. He sees a lot of time split out wide and comes into this game as SMU’s third leading receiver in both catches and yards.
Recommendation: Tight end is largely a wasteland in this slate outside of the top two options (Houk and Freeman) – neither of which we are willing to pay up for. Temple’s Kip Patton would have been a potential punt play at 2,200, but he has been ruled out for this week. We feel that Gaines is the best combination of price and production at 2,600, but if you are looking to completely punt, Saledeem Major should be starting in Patton’s place, and is priced at the minimum.
BYU at San Jose State
Kickoff: 11-6-15, 11:30 PM EST
Spread: BYU -12.5
O/U: 56.5
BYU
Expected Team Total Points: 35.5
QB Tanner Mangum – 9,000
Analysis: Mangum has been on fire of late, throwing for at least two touchdowns in each of BYU’s last four games. He was nursing a hamstring injury a couple of weeks ago, but reports have him close to 100 percent coming out of BYU’s bye week. On paper he faces an incredibly difficult matchup, going up against a San Jose State defense that is allowing an FBS best 122.1 pass yards per game. Examining that number more closely however, we see that the Spartans have faced two option teams (Air Force and New Mexico), three incredibly run heavy teams (Oregon State, San Diego State, and Auburn), and two teams that started back-up quarterbacks (Fresno State and UNLV.)
Recommendation: Call us unimpressed by the gaudy surface numbers that the San Jose State defense has put up so far this year. We feel that Mangum has a very solid floor and could push for his fourth 300 yard passing game of the year. We see Mangum as a fine cash game option, but if you are set on working Jahad Thomas or Tyler Ervin into your lineup and need the extra salary relief, then we recommend pivoting to P.J. Walker.
RB Algernon Brown – 8,500
Analysis: Though as a result of turnover and injury, BYU’s running back situation has been in flux for much of the year. However, over the last four games, Algernon Brown has established himself as BYU’s top option in the backfield. He’s run for over 80 yards in each of those four games and has seven touchdowns in that span. Fortunately for Brown and BYU, the San Jose State defense has been one of the worst in the country against the run, allowing 225.4 yards per game.
Recommendation: We view Brown as a chalk option at running back in this slate, considering the matchup and his recent usage. The main roadblock to his success on Friday would be the return of fellow running back Adam Hine, who right now is considered questionable to play. We recommend monitoring that situation on Twitter, as a fully healthy Hine would likely substantially cut into Brown’s workload.
WR Mitch Matthews – 7,100
Analysis: Matthews is BYU’s top target in the red zone, leading the team with eight receiving touchdowns. He also leads BYU in catches and receiving yards, and has to be considered the most reliable option in an offense that has a propensity to spread the ball around.
Recommendation: Despite Matthews’ somewhat pedestrian numbers, he is one of the top options in a slate devoid of quality options at wide receiver. He should be in your cash game lineups.
San Jose State
Expected Team Total Points: 21.5
RB Tyler Ervin – 9,500
Analysis: To say Ervin has been a workhorse for San Jose State would be an understatement. He’s had games in which he’s carried the ball both 36 and 42 times this season, rushing for 263 and 300 yards in those games respectively. In tougher matchups though, against San Diego State, Auburn, and Oregon State, Ervin has only averaged 92 yards per game. The theme, unsurprisingly, of Ervin’s season seems to be that when San Jose State is involved in a tight game, Ervin is in line for a huge day. We question if San Jose State will be in a position to feed Ervin, as the Spartans are 12.5 point underdogs.
Recommendation: Ervin’s expensive price tag is manageable considering the nature of this slate, but we still question whether he will come anywhere hitting value in this game. The more likely outcome is that Ervin has a decent day, approaching 100 yards with a touchdown, but San Jose State has to pass more than they would like in an effort to keep up with BYU’s high scoring offense.
