Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Hammond
Matthew Stafford - Two weeks ago in this article I downgraded Stafford, saying "I tried to give Stafford the benefit of the doubt during the first month of the season but lowered him in my rankings last week and will do so again this week" and also "Just my opinion, but the play calling under the new Lions' regime is very unimaginative with little besides short passes (even to Calvin Johnson most of the time) and until / unless head coach Jim Caldwell and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi get more aggressive and unchain Stafford a little, and they fix some of the line problems, Stafford will continue to under-perform vs. the ability I know he has. Unfortunately, we may not see a lot of improvement until the current staff is fired and a new offensive philosophy is in place." Well, things have happened since I wrote that, and not only has Stafford been unchained but Offensive Coordinator Lombardi has been fired. The line problems are still there, but now they are letting Stafford be Stafford and the results are 651 yards with 6 TD and 2 INT the last two weeks, and I'm ready to move Stafford up again, closer to where his ability and WR/TE talent tell me he should be. QB18 to QB14 isn't a huge bump, but let's see how things go in the coming weeks under the new Offensive Coordinator.
Johnny Manziel - I dropped Manziel in my rankings very soon after news of his domestic dispute and the revelation that he'd again been drinking. It was after this article had been posted so this is my first chance to comment. Manziel had been listed as only QB31. I never did believe in him very much even before his rookie year disaster, and I've been skeptical that he'll ever succeed if/when he gets a genuine shot at being a starter, but learning that after all the rehab and support he's received he's again drinking is troublesome enough to drop him from QB31 down to QB39. That ranking to me means he has gone from big question mark waiting for a shot to prove himself to afterthought not worth rostering while waiting to find out.
Wood
Blake Bortles - Bortles has looked like a new man this year. In spite of the Jaguars struggles, Bortles has been a productive passer regardless of game script, and is aided by a pair of dynamic young receivers that should ensure Bortles has continued success for years to come.
Matthew Stafford - Stafford has shaken off a rough start to more closely resemble the strong armed passer we've come to expect in Detroit. With the Lions making a switch at offensive coordinator, there's no reason to think Stafford won't bounce sharply off his early 2015 floor.
Teddy Bridgewater - Bridgewater simply hasn't looked very good, or prolific. He could be the victim of an ultra-conservative offense but there's little evidence to suggest he can reach the upside we expected in the preseason.
Running Back
Hindery
Lamar Miller - After a slow start to the season, Miller saw his dynasty value tumble. However, since the coaching change, Miller has seen his production explode. He had 236 total yards and two touchdowns in just one half of play yesterday as the Dolphins raced out to a 41-0 halftime lead. All of a sudden, the 24-year old back is one of dynasty’s hotter commodities. At the risk of over-reacting to six quarters of strong play, Miller should probably be considered a top 5-dynasty running back at this point.
Arian Foster - While Foster is an obvious candidate for downward movement in the rankings, it is interesting to consider just how far he should drop. Is he a buy-low candidate who can be had for next to nothing but could still have a RB1 season left in his body? Or is he a guy who you should be trying to sell for whatever you can get for him while he still retains some small modicum of value? While it’s certainly possible that Foster will never be a fantasy starter again, he probably has more value than the general public will believe and thus makes a nice trade target if he can be had on the cheap. Foster doesn’t turn 30-years old until next summer and his overall game is strong enough that he could retain real value even if he does lose a step in his return from injury. If the reports out of Houston are true (that Foster will probably be cut), he will be free to pick any team he wants and could end up in a much more favorable situation. We’ve seen older players have a late-career resurgence in New England for example. Yes, Foster’s value has taken a massive plunge. But if he can be had for something like a 3rd round rookie pick, he is the type of talent worth gambling on.
Wood
Giovani Bernard - This preseason I feared Bernard was going to be circumvented on the Bengals depth chart by Jeremy Hill. Nearly halfway through the season we know that Bernard is not only still a part of the offense, he's the centerpiece of the ground game. A dynamic open field runner, an able receiver, and a better pass blocker than his teammate (Hill)...Bernard has vaulted into the rare asset category.
Lamar Miller - What a difference two weeks makes! The firing of Joe Philbin has unlocked the Dolphins offense; and a major reason for that is the re-commitment to Lamar Miller and the ground attack. Miller is young, has very little tread on his tires, and is now a much safer bet for regular workloads than we thought a few weeks ago.
Melvin Gordon - I needed to slow my roll on Gordon without completely abandoning his long-term upside. He's been a fumbling machine, and hasn't run with much power or vision in the Chargers early slate. San Diego is close to abandoning the run, and even when they don't -- Danny Woodhead and Branden Oliver have a role as part of the committee. We moved from RB3 down to RB13 in my rankings.
Hammond
Robert Turbin - It's nearly time to fire up those Turbin engines! Ugh, that was bad. Anyway, it is no secret that the Browns were dissatisfied with their running backs this year from the beginning. Offseason talk by coaches that no one seemed motivated to take hold of the starting job. Terrance West was eventually shipped to Tennessee. Isaiah Crowell has been unimpressive. Their primary hope, third round rookie Duke Johnson Jr, is undersized and more of a passing down back, and was out an extended period early on with concussion problems. Enter Robert Turbin, formerly Marshawn Lynch's backup for a few years which of course meant minimal carries since Beast Mode seldom missed time. He was placed on IR by Seattle, later cut from IR with an injury settlement, signed on with Cleveland, and is now healthy enough to play. He got his feet wet in Week 6 with 18 snaps (10-27 rushing) then had 27 snaps in Week 7 (5-30 rushing plus two catches). What do we have in Turbin? No sure exactly, other than opportunity, and possibly a significant one. I have seen enough of him in Seattle to know he'll never be a star, but he could be a productive asset on a dynasty roster sooner than many think. I had him outside my top 75 RBs when in Nowhere Land and RB68 two weeks ago, and given the possibility he may surpass Crowell soon I will speculatively bump him to RB55.
Arian Foster - When healthy Foster can be a top 3 running back. Dynasty owners (especially PPR) who patiently waited for his return from his latest hamstring issue were rewarded with increasingly strong games in weeks 5,6,7... and then it happened. Another injury, and this time a really tough one, the Achilles. This season is obviously done and there are big questions concerning next year. Foster turns 30 just before the season begins, his injury history is well documented, he will likely not be ready when the season comes around, and his contract may make it necessary or desirable for Houston to cut him loose and save a lot of cap money rather than keep him since they have so many holes. I had him as a top 10 running back in my rankings, but like Jamaal Charles a couple weeks ago, being of no help to owners this season plus age plus questions about readiness to start (and even where he'll play) next year, call for a major adjustment. I think we have to look at him as a late-20s dynasty RB, and I wouldn't argue with an even more pessimistic view. I have him at RB28 for now.
Wide Receiver
Wood
Amari Cooper - What more can we ask of this exceptional rookie? Paired with a young quarterback, Cooper is already better than most opposing defensive backs. Imagine what kind of numbers he can put up in the next three to five seasons if (when?) the rest of the Raiders personnel catches up to his own abilities?
Allen Robinson - Robinson has been dominant this season, and has proven himself to be almost matchup proof. While Allen Hurns has been impressive, too, it's been Robinson that garners slightly more focus from Blake Bortles in most game scripts.
Stefon Diggs - Diggs wasn't ranked and that has to change in a hurry. He's been dominant in his first two starts and clearly has a rapport with Teddy Bridgewater that other Vikings receivers do not. Diggs' inexperience and pedigree are big risks, but if he can maintain this level of productivity for another few weeks, Diggs will continue to skyrocket up my dynasty ranking. Diggs moves all the way up to WR42 in my rankings.
Hammond
Brandon LaFell - I had LaFell at WR50 while on the PUP list, and now that he has returned and immediately targeted 7 times I think I have him under-ranked. He dropped way too many of those targets, but Tom Brady was clear in post-game comments that LaFell will be a big part of the offense. Let's not forget that he was 75-953-7 last year and the Patriots appear on a mission after deflate-gate to score a million points this year. LaFell is almost 29, a few months younger than Edelman and a year younger than Amendola, so age is not an issue. Brady isn't retiring anytime soon, LaFell's role in the offense seems secure (Dobson is a bust), and the rust ought to be knocked off now that he has been back for one game. I expect solid numbers on average from him the rest of the way. I'm moving LaFell up from WR50 to WR39.
Percy Harvin - At age 27, Harvin ought to be in his prime but he may be closer to the end than we think. His first three years (2009-11) were very strong for the receiver/runner and showed such promise of a great career that he was highly sought after by dynasty owners and a top 10 dynasty receiver in many people's eyes. The 2012 season was down because of injury but still solid on a per game basis. Then somehow it all fell apart. Despite the stats he was traded to Seattle as both Harvin and the Vikings were reportedly unhappy with one another. He hurt his hip and missed almost all of 2013 but made it back in time to have a great play in the Super Bowl. He moved on again from Seattle and had his lowest per-game output in 2014 with the Jets, and missed games. Everywhere he has gone there seems to be a cloud over him, some whispers of controversy, some unhappiness, some injury. His stats are incredibly inconsistent from game to game these days, all or nothing. I feel like I've been continually surprised and disappointed in 2014 and so far in 2015 and have never quite learned my lesson. My last rankings had him at WR57, a slow slide from once upon a time being top 10. And yet he's just 27. The latest controversy involves whether he is injured or taking time off for personal reasons, and apparently Harvin and his own General Manager Whaley are saying different things. So weird. With Sammy Watkins out due to injury this was a chance for Harvin to shine. Instead, more inconsistency, more controversy, and even whispers he may retire. I think it's time for me to learn my lesson and drop this guy down far enough that he can't disappoint me any more, and I'll just shrug when he has a good game. He is going from WR57 to WR75, and while that may be way low talent-wise, the whispers of retirement, the constant hip issue, the history of three other teams happy to see him go... I have no interest in considering Percy's upside any more.
Hindery
Lamar Miller - After a slow start to the season, Miller saw his dynasty value tumble. However, since the coaching change, Miller has seen his production explode. He had 236 total yards and two touchdowns in just one half of play yesterday as the Dolphins raced out to a 41-0 halftime lead. All of a sudden, the 24-year old back is one of dynasty’s hotter commodities. At the risk of over-reacting to six quarters of strong play, Miller should probably be considered a top 5-dynasty running back at this point.
Arian Foster - While Foster is an obvious candidate for downward movement in the rankings, it is interesting to consider just how far he should drop. Is he a buy-low candidate who can be had for next to nothing but could still have a RB1 season left in his body? Or is he a guy who you should be trying to sell for whatever you can get for him while he still retains some small modicum of value? While it’s certainly possible that Foster will never be a fantasy starter again, he probably has more value than the general public will believe and thus makes a nice trade target if he can be had on the cheap. Foster doesn’t turn 30-years old until next summer and his overall game is strong enough that he could retain real value even if he does lose a step in his return from injury. If the reports out of Houston are true (that Foster will probably be cut), he will be free to pick any team he wants and could end up in a much more favorable situation. We’ve seen older players have a late-career resurgence in New England for example. Yes, Foster’s value has taken a massive plunge. But if he can be had for something like a 3rd round rookie pick, he is the type of talent worth gambling on.
Tight End
Hammond
Gary Barnidge - Just how high can you bump a 30 year old tight end who has never had anything close to a relevant fantasy season before (previous high 13 catch season)? In my last rankings two weeks ago I put Barnidge at TE19 and was uncomfortable going that high. He has gone 9-140-2 in the two games since then though, and during his five-week binge from Week 3 through Week 7 he is the #1 PPR fantasy tight end in the NFL (ignoring Gates who played only two games during that span). That's total and also per game, with 20.98 points per game. More than Gronkowski, Olsen, or anybody else, for five games. This can't keep up, but it can't be ignored either because he is helping fantasy teams win games. I will move him up, but again uncomfortably, from TE19 to TE15. You may want to view him somewhat higher if you are focused more on contending in 2015 still, and lower if you are fading and looking to 2016.
Dwayne Allen - Allen had a solid rookie season for tight ends in 2012 with 45 catches, missed nearly all of 2013 with injury, then had a mediocre 2014 with 29 catches in 13 games. Yet there were 8 TDs among those 29 catches, and of course the Andrew Luck factor has value. There seemed to be additional upside in Allen as many speculated Coby Fleener would be let go when his contract is up at the end of this season while Allen will be re-signed. I have had Allen ranked for those reasons fairly high given the lack of impressive stats so far, but recently moved him down to TE16. In 2015 so far there have been more injury issues (a recurring theme now), and his role in the pass offense continues to dwindle. He has just eight catches in his five games played, and his snaps continue to decline. In Week 7 he had just 25 snaps, one target and one catch for 10 yards. The upside has to this point proven illusory and the Luck factor irrelevant, and Allen needs to fall far from where I had him at TE16. He is now TE25.