Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Hammond
Tyrod Taylor - I began the season ranking Taylor near the bottom of starting quarterbacks. The expectation was he'd be a game manager, his accuracy was in question, and there was still the prospect of being replaced by more experienced Matt Cassel if things did not go well. Well, after three games he's blown those expectations out of the water. He has completed 74.4% of his passes and is among the QB leaders in fantasy scoring. He's shown poise and maturity in leading the Bills, and Cassel is now in Dallas. It's hard to say just how Taylor will end up by season's end, but his starting role is secure and he looks like an asset, not a liability, in a starting line up. I want to be cautious moving him up dynasty rankings but he's earning respect quickly.
Wood
Tyrod Taylor - Taylor seemed like a high upside novelty act a few months ago but a solid preseason combined with good-if-not great first three games sets Taylor up to be a viable starter in Buffalo for years to come. We have to be sensitive to his short resume, but so far, so good.
Sam Bradford - I was very bearish on Bradford even after the trade to Philadelphia, but Chip Kelly's success with Mark Sanchez and Nick Foles swayed me over. That was a mistake. Philadelphia is lucky to be 1-2 and Bradford has looked terrible. He's indecisive, has shown no touch on the deep ball, and the Eagles offensive line appears a shell of its former self.
Hindery
Andrew Luck (Down), Ryan Tannehill (Down) and Russell Wilson (Down) - These three young quarterbacks are grouped together in terms of seeing a drop in their dynasty values. In small part, it is due to none of the three ranking in the Top 8 at their position through three weeks. However, three weeks is such a small sample size, it doesn’t really prove much and it is possible (maybe even likely) that one or more of these three finishes near the top of the quarterback rankings by season’s end. However, the pro-quarterback argument in terms of positional value should be losing steam. Throughout the offseason, many were arguing for Luck as the #1 overall dynasty player. While his longevity is likely to be impressive, the case against him revolved around the lack of separation at the quarterback position compared to the elite players at other positions. We are seeing that being borne out early in this season. While Antonio Brown (My #2 preseason overall) and Julio Jones (#3 preseason) are lapping the field at WR, Luck is being outscored by 6 PPG by Carson Palmer (the definition of “replacement level” since he was on waivers this offseason in many leagues). It’s simply very difficult to argue for a heavy investment in any of the hyped young quarterbacks when every season there are players like Carson Palmer, Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton, etc. who are available for cheap and can be streamed according to matchup to achieve near parity in positional scoring with the owner who used an early startup draft pick on an elite young quarterback. Plus, when you take into account some of the ridiculously high scores being put up at other positions, it makes too much sense to take advantage of the “old man discount” and just ride Tom Brady, Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger for the next 3-5 seasons.
Marcus Mariota - Mariota has passed the eye test with flying colors through three weeks. He is composed in the pocket, shows a strong arm and top-notch accuracy. While it is early, he looks like he could end up being a fantasy QB1 as early as this season. Plus, as Dorial Green-Beckham develops and the Titans continue to add weapons around their young franchise quarterback, he could put up even bigger numbers in the coming years. The 22-year old looks like he could be a dynasty mainstay for at least the next decade.
Running Back
Wood
Jeremy Hill - Hill remains in my Top 10 at the position given his age, skill set, and strong showing last year once he got the starting job. However, fumbles and tentative running combined with a strong showing thus far from Gio Bernard temper my enthusiasm. Hill remains an asset, but not the premier one my ranking implied a few weeks ago.
Lamar Miller - Miller should be running roughshod over the league but instead he's been injured and unimpressive when he's been on the field. There's a good chance we completely overrated the Dolphins offense from the coaches to the quarterback to the offensive line and, yes, the running game. I continue to have high hopes for Miller but he needs to bounce back in the coming weeks or my long-term enthusiasm will take another hit.
Dion Lewis - Lewis didn't appear in my prior rankings -- a mistake, admittedly. I didn't think a guy that had bounced around the league, never had a meaningful role, and was oft injured projected as a winner in the Patriots crowded backfield. I was wrong. Lewis has been the clear #1 running back and, even in the face of Blount's 3-TD showing in Week 3, Lewis got the majority of first team reps in the first half. I can't put him much higher for now because Belichick could easily change his mind (remember Jonas Gray?), but as Lewis performs, so too will his long-term dynasty ranking rise. He moves up to RB40 in my rankings.
Hindery
Latavius Murray - While Murray has had a relatively quiet start to his season, he is poised to be one of the most consistently high-scoring young running backs going forward. The Raiders offense looks much improved with second-year quarterback David Carr looking like the real thing at quarterback and Amari Cooper a potential superstar at WR. The improved passing game should allow Murray plenty of space to operate and new OC Bill Musgrave has indicated he wants to make Murray the centerpiece of the offense. Murray projects to receive ~20 carries per game with ~3 receptions per week and in today’s pass-happy NFL in which many teams employ a RBBC, that makes Murray a very valuable fantasy commodity. Murray should be considered at top ten dynasty back and is a nice piece for both contenders and teams looking to build for the longer haul.
Hammond
Dion Lewis - Though he was mentioned last week in this column, Dion Lewis deserves more discussion. He's second among running backs in PPR scoring through three weeks, and Week 3 was a good indicator of what is in store ahead. Against an opponent many thought Blount would start against while Lewis would take a step back, Lewis was once again front-and-center while the game was in doubt, even getting the call on an 8 yard TD run early in the game. Blount ended up with more fantasy points but the game was well in hand when Lewis was replaced by Blount. Lewis appears to be getting much more than the 'Vereen role' would have suggested, averaging not only 5 catches per game so far but also 10 carries per game and scoring two TDs on the ground. He's an all around threat who could end up as a top 10 PPR back this year in the Patriots' offense. And although he is in his 5th year in the league, he celebrated just his 25th birthday on Sunday.
Lamar Miller - The Miami running offense is stuck in the mud, Miller has had only 30 carries through three games so far (for a 3.5 YPC), and historically he isn't very involved in the passing game. Here's a fact you probably didn't know. In only three games last season did Lamar Miller exceed 16 carries, and he never had 20. Further, in his 3+ year career he has exceeded 19 carries only once (22 carries in Week 13 of 2013). Miller's contract is up this year and I wouldn't be surprised if this is it for him in Miami with rookie Ajayi waiting in the wings. I had ranked him at dynasty 16 entering the season but that has to get tossed, and he has to go lower.
Alfred Morris - I think the transition away from Morris is becoming very clear, and when a back who depends on volume for his fantasy production loses much of that volume, that's trouble. Matt Jones will not take over completely but already was tabbed for the pass catching role, and now is getting a good share of the runs as well -- and is more productive with them. Morris is only signed through the end of this year and will be 27 next season. His days as a bell cow runner appear to be over.
Wide Receiver
Hindery
Julio Jones - As mentioned above, Jones was ranked #3 prior to the season in my dynasty trade value chart and in close to a dead heat with Odell Beckham, Jr. and Antonio Brown at the top. However, even that lofty ranking assumed he would produce at the rate of about 20 PPG. Through Week 3, Jones is blowing that assumption out of the water. Let’s go back to the 20 PPG figure. With “replacement level” scoring in PPR leagues at the WR position of ~12 PPG, it was assumed Jones would give you about an 8 point advantage every week (which I call 8 points worth of “value” over the course of the season. Project that forward over the next 5-6 seasons and you get a total dynasty trade value of 40-48 points, which would be one of the tops in the league. Through three games, Jones is actually scoring a ridiculous 34 PPG. While we have to expect some regression, it still seems obvious that Jones is well on his way to an absolutely monster season. With 102 points through three games, a total of 420+ points actually seems realistic. When you have a player who could outscore replacement level at his position by something like 15 points, it starts to produce some seemingly ridiculous results. But Jones is such a massive talent and in such a perfect situation (star Quarterback, fading Roddy White, new OC who feeds his X-receiver, etc.) that we have to assume he is going to produce incredible numbers for the foreseeable future. His owners are unlikely to trade him for anything but a “ridiculous” haul right now, but it might be worth sending a big offer (3 highly regarded young players) just to see if you can pry him away. An offer that seems “ridiculous” now, could end up a huge bargain if Julio Jones re-writes the record books over the next few seasons.
Hammond
Keenan Allen - Everyone loved Keenan Allen after his surprising 71-1046-8 rookie season, but he disappointed those who had high expectations in his second year and posted just 783 yards and 4 TDs. He's back on track though in 2015, and is among the leaders in receiver production. He was targeted 17 times in Week 1 and 18 times in Week 3 by Phillip Rivers, who by the way signed an extension in the offseason to help establish stability for Allen's dynasty value (there had been rumors before the extension of Rivers wanting a trade or even retiring after the season). At age 23, Allen looks to be among the top 20 dynasty receivers for awhile.
Leonard Hankerson - Week 2 suggested it, and Week 3 confirmed it: there is a new #2 receiver in Atlanta. There were offseason reports that Roddy White would be pushed by Hankerson this year, but I think a lot of folks were waiting to see it to believe it before tossing aside a receiver with years and years of production. That time has come after White has put up two straight goose eggs while Hankerson has had 9-122-1 (17 targets) during Week 2 and Week 3 games. There is value in the #2 in Atlanta, and #1 Julio Jones won't continue his pace that currently extrapolates to 181-2347-21 on 245 targets. This is a passing team with a really good quarterback in Matt Ryan, the tight end is not nearly as involved these days, and while Roddy will still get some consideration there's lots of room for some really solid production from Hankerson.
Charles Johnson - There was a lot of talk in dynasty circles late in the 2014 season when Norv Turner called Johnson the team's best receiver. Johnson had a strong finish to the year and looked like a breakout candidate this year, and was a trade target of many dynasty owners. However, things look a lot different now after three games of 2015. So far Johnson is just 6-46-0, half the catches of Mike Wallace who arrived in free agency. Tight end Kyle Rudolph is soaking up targets. And overall the Vikings are taking a much more run-oriented approach with the return of Adrian Peterson. Johnson's 8 targets (2 in Week 3) are behind Rudolph (19), Wallace (14), and Jarius Wright (10) who signed an extension earlier this year. I think expectations have to be lowered for Johnson going forward and a drop in dynasty ranking is warranted.
Wood
Sammy Watkins - Watkins' talent was never in question, but my reticence about the Bills offense knocked him down my preseason rankings. With Tyrod Taylor's successful emergence, the entire tenor of the Bills skill players changes for the better. Watkins is no longer inhibited by his passer, which vaults him back into WR1 dynasty territory.
Donte Moncrief - The Andre Johnson acquisition and 1st round pick on Phillip Dorsett had me wondering if Moncrief was being cast aside as a cornerstone of the Colts offense. Johnson's struggles and T.Y. Hilton's injury have proven otherwise. Moncrief has not only excelled, but he's been the best player on the Colts offense through three weeks.
Cody Latimer - Peyton Manning's career is at an end, which is cause enough for concern. But more importantly, Latimer is a forgotten man this year. He's being outplayed by Bennie Fowler and Jordan Norwood. If that doesn't justify a downgrade, I don't know what would.
Tight End
Hammond
Zach Ertz - At one time I had Ertz as a top-5 dynasty tight end based on the promise of the Eagles' offense and Ertz' role in that offense. I eventually moved him down to 9th, and now I feel it necessary to go lower still. I was disappointed in his production last season given all the hype (58-702-3) and this year seems to be confirmation that he is going to be an OK tight end but not special, not a focal point of a high flying offense with a star quarterback. Bradford looks very average and so does Ertz,, catching less than half of his 17 targets so far for 8-93-0 through three games. Until he proves otherwise (I'm happy to bump him back up if he does) I'm going to have to consider him a middling dynasty value and rank him as such.
Wood
Crockett Gillmore - Gillmore has emerged as a viable playmaker in a Ravens offense in desperate need of weapons. He's outplayed Maxx Williams and appears set to be the Ravens starter in 2015 and beyond.
Maxx Williams - Williams falls as Crockett Gillmore's star rises.
Hindery
Tyler Eifert - Eifert had a touchdown taken away due to the Dez Bryant/Calvin Johnson rule in Week 3 and put up a zero in Week 3, but he still ranks as one of the pleasant surprises of the 2015 season. The former-first round pick is showing off the special athleticism that made him such a hot commodity coming out of Notre Dame three years ago. His combination of size, speed and leaping ability makes him an impossible cover for both DBs and LBs. In addition, Andy Dalton looks better than ever and seems to love throwing to Eifert (especially in the red zone). By the end of the season, Eifert may challenge Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce for the #2 dynasty TE ranking behind Rob Gronkowski. At just 25-years old, Eifert should have a long and productive career and projects as a fantasy TE1 for the foreseeable future.