Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
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Peyton Manning - Manning goes from dynasty QB15 to QB22. I already had him as low as I did because of the reported reduced role of the passing game and the possibility this season could be his last, but that was countered somewhat by his recent comment that he'd like to play beyond 2015 and also by some encouraging words from one of his receivers indicating he still had zip on the ball. After now seeing him play in Week 1 I really have to wonder if Manning has much left in the arm, and perhaps we need to view the decline in the latter part of 2014 not as just the result of his thigh injury but Father Time finally getting to the 39 year old. My QB15 ranking allowed for a good chance he'd be back one more time in 2016 after a good 2015, but QB22 now says I've become much more wary of the possibility 2015 will be a final, and mediocre, season for one of the greatest quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen.
Running Back
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Karlos Williams has not only overtaken the competition for the Bills' #2 role, but he also looked better than LeSean McCoy in Week One. Even if McCoy holds up as the RB1, Williams is now a compelling option in his own right in 2016 and beyond. Williams has good size and showed both vision and power in the preseason and versus the Colts. Williams should be considered among the tier of young, unproven RB2s who play in run-heavy offenses. He gained 47 slots from RB104 to RB57.
Joique Bell - Bell did yeoman's work the last few seasons in Detroit, but injuries and - frankly - a lack of elite talent, push him down my rankings. Ameer Abdullah is the real deal, and took exactly one week of regular season play to establish himself atop the Lions depth chart. Theo Riddick appears to have a role equivalent to Bell. There simply isn't enough upside to justify Bell as a dynasty commodity anymore. He dropped 10 slots from RB49 to RB39.
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Danny Woodhead - Before the season began it was hard to know where to rank a 30 year old specialty back coming off serious injury that caused him to miss nearly a whole season, especially when the year before injury he had 76 receptions and eight TDs, and finished RB12 in PPR leagues. It may be even harder now that the supposed specialty back has scored two Week 1 touchdowns as the primary goal line option in addition to his pass catching. Week 1 certainly tells me that Danny Woodhead is all the way back from his fractured fibula and ankle and will be a big part of the offense, and could possibly approach his 2013 numbers. While I don't think he'll attain such levels this year, it seems clear that despite his limited remaining shelf life I can't keep him at dynasty RB51 where I had him to start the season. I've moved him to RB42, reasoning that one season of Danny Woodhead is worth more than the remaining careers of younger guys I've moved behind him.
Andre Ellington - Ellington is once again injured, this time a Grade 1 PCL sprain, and will be out of action 1-3 weeks. It's not just the missed game(s) though that have him tumbling down my rankings, it's the growing evidence that Ellington isn't built to take the pounding required to be a lead back in the NFL. Head Coach Bruce Arians tabbed the former 6th rounder as his starter a year ago and was 'rewarded' with four missed games, being limited the rest of the season by a foot tendon problem, and 3.3 yards per carry. In the offseason Ellington had sports hernia surgery as well, and now the PCL sprain in Week 1. In 2014 he got 20 touches per game anyway because the alternative options were poor, but this year both veteran Chris Johnson (six seasons of 1,000-plus yards to his credit, a 4.2 YPC in his 'down' year last year, and no missed games since his rookie year - making him sort of the anti-Ellington) and rookie 3rd rounder David Johnson were added to the mix. I think in the long term Ellington's role will fade into that of a committee back who could see fewer and fewer carries even when healthy, and so my previous dynasty RB20 ranking for him is now RB32.
Wide Receiver
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Kendall Wright - I'm moving Wright from dynasty WR34 up to WR26 with a decent chance to continue higher. I was already more optimistic about Wright than many folks, viewing his 57 receptions in 2014 as an aberration (he had 94 catches in 2013) caused by a mediocre patchwork at the quarterback position. It looks like QB Mariota is developing quickly and has a chance to be really good in 2016 and beyond, with Wright his primary receiving target. WR Hunter appears to be a bust, WR Dorial-Beckham has a lot to learn still, TE Walker is now 31, and Wright at 25 is just entering his prime. The 4-101-1 stat line for Week 1 was encouraging, and with the possibility he won't just be used in the short passing game now that he has a legitimate quarterback, his yards per catch may significantly improve over what it has been in prior years.
Sammy Watkins - When ranking Watkins at dynasty WR11 in preseason it was a recognition of his elite talent and pedigree (picked 4th overall in the 2014 draft) and cautious optimism that, despite a potential mess at the quarterback position, they would find a way to make Watkins the focus of the passing game and he'd therefore get his numbers. I may be over-reacting to one game, and I know there will be weeks Sammy will get his, but Week 1 (zero catches, three targets) showed me that QB Taylor is not just locking onto Watkins and will go where the defense allows rather than force-feeding his stud receiver. I'm dropping Watkins down to WR18 from WR11; that's not a lot but enough to recognize that he's not likely to be a consistent stat producer for awhile.
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Kenny Stills - I had high hopes for Stills after the preseason move to Miami, but nothing in the preseason supported that optimism. It's unclear whether he has a regular role with the Dolphins, particularly with rookie DeVante Parker back from injury. While Stills remains young enough to have a breakthrough season, the window is rapidly closing. If he doesn't define a major role within the next few weeks, Stills' dynasty value becomes marginal. He fell 22 spots from WR54 to WR32.
Brandon Coleman - I should've had Coleman much higher in my rankings already given his strong preseason. In fact, I drafted him in quite a few redraft leagues with an end game selection. In any event, Coleman has vaulted into the Top 60 at his position for three reasons. One, he earned the #3 job in a pass happy offense this preseason. Two, he showed in Week One he has a rapport with Drew Brees that translates into tangible value in 2015, much less 2016 and beyond. Three, Marques Colston could be much closer to the end of his viability than we thought and Coleman has a very real chance of being a starter sooner rather than later. Coleman vaulted from WR180 to WR58 in my rankings.
Allen Robinson - In July, 12 of the top 50 dynasty players (in ADP) were drafted in 2014, which I noted meant that on average, the group of 12 was overvalued. Predictably, the majority of the group looks primed for either a sophomore year slump or a non-breakout season. As noted, for every DeAndre Hopkins or Alshon Jeffery who has a breakout 2nd season, there are three or four Justin Hunter, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Blackmon, Trent Richardson, etc. who see their value explode before their second season and then go on to majorly disappoint. While drawing strong conclusions after one week is never wise, Robinson looks like he may be headed towards membership in the latter group of players. Despite facing a banged up Carolina secondary, he caught only 1–of-6 targets in Week 1. The Jaguars offense looks like it could struggle once again and Robinson might not have the breakout that nearly everyone in July was predicting he would have.
Sammy Watkins - As with Robinson, Watkins looks like he could have a rough second season. In Week 1, Watkins had only 1 target and no receptions. The Bills look like they will be a low volume passing offense and it will be difficult to count on any of their WRs in any given week. Watkins is a talented player, but it’s just impossible for me to value a player who is barely a flex option as a top-20 dynasty asset. Situation matters much more than some want to admit and Watkins’ situation is terrible. He also does not appear to be the type of elite talent (A.J. Green, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, etc.) who is able to produce big numbers no matter who is throwing him the ball. Watkins is still a Top 50 asset, but appears to have been overrated as a second-round startup draft pick this offseason.
DeAndre Hopkins - Hopkins looked fantastic during training camp and preseason and is poised for a big season. He averaged approximately 10-yards per target despite terrible quarterback play last season. If he can keep up anywhere near that pace and sees 160+ targets as the clear #1 option in the Texans’ offense, he will have a huge season. Hopkins is knocking on the door of being a Top 10 overall dynasty player.
Keenan Allen - After a disappointing second season, Allen’s value was really depressed this offseason. He looked sluggish last year and there were reports that his work ethic left much to be desired. He rededicated himself this past offseason and it showed in Week 1. Allen looked like the potential superstar he did as a rookie and could regain his status as a Top 20 dynasty player if his massive Week 1 performance proves not to be a fluke.
Tight End
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Tyler Eifert - I'm listing Eifert here not because of a dramatic rankings movement -- I already had him at dynasty TE5 and now at TE4 -- but because I want to put a spotlight on the former 1st rounder and tell you his Week 1 breakout (9-104-2) was no fluke. The Bengals had big plans for him when they drafted him, and 2014 would have been a strong year if not for an elbow injury the first game of the season that landed him on Injured Reserve. If you own him don't 'sell high' after Week 1, and if you don't own him but are making a list of acquisition targets be sure to include Tyler Eifert. Some will quickly move him up their rankings I'm sure but others will remain skeptical. Trust that he's the real deal. Eifert is going to be an elite dynasty TE.
Hindery
Jordan Reed - Reed went from a being valued as a Top 6 dynasty TE one year ago to being a complete afterthought this offseason after a miserable 2014 season. With injuries to Desean Jackson and Niles Paul, Reed became the top target for the Washington offense in Week 1. More importantly, he looked every bit as smooth and explosive as he did during his strong 2013 rookie season. With Reed, the only question will be health because when 100%, he is a top 10 weekly tight end option.
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Darren Fells - Until a few weeks ago, Darren Fells was the "other" Fells brother -- as his brother Daniel has been in the league for years and now plays for the Giants. Darren is a former basketball player that got a late start in football, but has now earned a starting role for one of the NFL's top offenses. Sound familiar? I'm not saying Fells is the next Jimmy Graham, but stranger things have happened. Fells showed enough in Week One to argue for rostering him in deep redraft leagues; but he's absolutely become a must have lottery ticket in deep dynasty leagues. He jumped to TE28 from TE117, emerging into fantasy viability.