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Each week, Footballguys staff members will share the big movers in their respective Dynasty Rankings. Since the contributors will rotate, please check in weekly. The focus of this article will be on the “why” more than the movement itself. Dynasty Rankings are fluid and we hope that sharing the rationale will help you in your quest to create dynasties with all of your teams. The diversity of rankings will result in a variety of opinions weekly.
Quarterback
Harstad
Cam Newton - Compare Cam Newton's first four years to Andrew Luck's. Newton's best fantasy season was better than Luck's. So were his second-best and third-best fantasy seasons. So was his worst fantasy season. Newton and Luck are the same age. And now, in his fifth season, Newton is earning legitimate MVP buzz. All of the arguments for putting Luck at #1 apply even more strongly to Cam Newton.
Jameis Winston - There is a wide range of potential outcomes for quarterbacks picked #1 overall in recent years. On one extreme, you have Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, and Cam Newton. On the other, you have Tim Couch, David Carr, and Jamarcus Russell. In the middle are guys like Matt Stafford, Michael Vick, Carson Palmer, and Eli Manning. Winston playing well as a rookie doesn't guarantee he's the next Peyton Manning, but it certainly raises the chances that at worst he's the next Eli Manning, while lowering the chances that he's the next Tim Couch.
Tefertiller
Teddy Bridgewater – The Minnesota quarterback is a better NFL option than for fantasy football. We still have him as a low-end QB1 dynasty option, but one without great weapons and playing in a conservative offense. Bridgwater is improving and devloping. There is hope that he will someday be an every-week fantasy starter.
Derek Carr – Year two as a pro, combined with the new upgraded weapons (Cooper, Crabtree, and Walford), have vaulted Carr into the discussion for dynasty top ten at the quarterback position. Yes, he still gets antsy in the pocket and is erratic when not setting his feet, but Carr has improved vastly from his rookie year.
Parsons
Jameis Winston - With Vincent Jackson back, Winston adds another weapon to his arsenal as he performs well in his rookie season. Austin Seferian-Jenkins remains out as another matchup trump card later in the season or for 2016. Winston is succeeding as a pocket passer making power throws down the field. He continues to move up my board finishing 2015.
Tony Romo - Another injury for a quarterback in his mid-30s. He finished 2015 with more interceptions than touchdowns. To rank an older player highly they need two things: health and high-level production. Romo has neither entering the offseason where older players have little market appeal.
Running Back
Tefertiller
Justin Forsett – While we had Forsett ranked low to begin with, there is no reason to have the 30-year old ranked highly after he was placed on Injured Reserve this week. There is no guarantee he will be back with the Ravens next season, even if as a backup. Yes, we still believe Forsett can make plays, but there is much uncertainty in his future.
Bishop Sankey – Sankey was ranked low, but he was removed from the rankings this week. As the RB3 – or worse – on a middling Tennessee rushing attack, we have a difficult time believing he has any upside left.
James Starks – Starks was on many dynasty waiver wires this past offseason. If nothing else, the Packer runner has proven that he is talented and is a RB3/4 most weeks, even if Eddie Lacy starts the game.
Jeremy Langford – Other than Todd Gurley, a case can be made that Langford looks like the best rookie running back from the 2015 NFL Draft Class. Matt Forte is a free agent after the season and Langford appears to have a stranglehold on the 2016 starting gig. Langford has shined as a runner and receiver, something the Bears coaching staff values.
Parsons
David Johnson - Johnson flashed early in the season in minimal, but regular, touches. While Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington were health, David Johnson was a nearly invisible. Now with Chris on the shelf and Ellington with a toe injury, David will see significant run to close the year. Johnson has an outstanding metric profile and will see choice matchups given the surrounding weapons in Arizona warranting defensive attention.
C.J. Anderson - Anderson looks healthy from one of the first times this season. Anderson had his jump cut back in the toolbox against New England and, by my view, always been the better interior runner compared to Ronnie Hillman. With power running and Brock Osweiler under center, Anderson has a prime opportunity to excel in the cold games of December and January.
Harstad
Carlos Hyde - While Hyde wasn't very productive this season, he looked fantastic in limited action and gave his owners a lot of hope for the future. Hyde should be an attractive piece for rebuilding franchises, and his value should rise as more and more teams get eliminated from contention.
DeAngelo Williams - Williams is in many ways the opposite of Carlos Hyde; his value is predicated on immediate returns. As the amount of season remaining, (and the pool of teams still competing), shrinks, so to does Williams value, until the clock strikes midnight on 2015 and it dwindles all the way back down to nothing.
Wide Receiver
Parsons
DeVante Parker - Finally Parker flashed with consistent usage in Week 12. Miami has a gaping hole at outside receiver (no offense, Kenny Stills) with Jarvis Landry minding the short middle of the field. Parker showed well with quality ball skills near the sideline. While Miami's team has been in consistent flux in 2015, Parker is one to watch for further development over the final month.
Davante Adams - Even as a long-time Adams supporter, my confidence is wavering. Adams has yet to score a touchdown this season, rarely gets any separation of note, and Greg Cosell as said numerous times Green Bay is a passing game where receivers are asked to win one-on-one without scheme, motion, or formational assistance. Maybe Adams is not 100% physically still, but this was a golden opportunity to excel and while Randall Cobb has been a disappointment, Cobb has done even less.
Harstad
Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green - For a couple years, Bryant, Thomas, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown have formed a top tier of wide receivers who were a similar age and had a similar productive profile. Their value relied on the fact that they were more productive than everyone younger and younger than everyone more productive. While that remains true for Jones and Brown, the other three find themselves in a precarious position as a younger generation of budding stars, (Amari Cooper, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Keenan Allen, Sammy Watkins), are all providing nearly as much or more production in the short term as well as a three or more year age advantage for the long term.
Josh Gordon - Time is always the big risk with Gordon. Another negative strike can come at any time. At the same time, time is his biggest asset, because the longer he goes without another incident, the more we can trust him going forward. While concern is still warranted, Gordon's ability to stay out of the headlines for the last nine months has to be seen as a positive for his value going forward.
Tefertiller
Davante Adams – The injury to Jordy Nelson has given Adams his golden opportunity to flourish. Well, the results have been disappointing. He has failed to create separation, been lazy on his routes, and not shown the solid hands he had at Fresno State. Even further, Adams was called out by the coach in front of reporters after the loss to Chicago Thursday evening.
Allen Hurns – Hurns has proven to be a legitimate fantasy option, and last year was no fluke. He has shown great speed and agility to break off big plays. Hurns still is a player who is underrated by the fantasy community due to limited fanfare coming into the league.
Tyler Lockett – Lockett has a shot to become the top pass-catcher in Seattle. The rookie has made big plays as a rookie and will only get better. He is able to create separation even with limited size.
Tight End
Harstad
Jimmy Graham - I'm a big believer in betting on talent and buying injured players, but ideally I'm placing those bets on difference-makers. Even prior to his injury, Graham was just a run-of-the-mill fantasy tight end. Now he faces a lengthy and fraught rehab, after which he'll be entering his age-30 season for a team that would rather use him as a blocker. While I'd still potentially be looking to buy, the price I'd be willing to pay has plummeted substantially.
Tefertiller
Josh Hill – Hill came into the season with high expectations and has been outplayed by Ben Watson. If he cannot assert himself as the Saints are desperate for weapons, our faith in Hill ever emerging is declining.
Zach Miller – The former college quarterback at Nebraska- Omaha struggled with injuries early in his career, but is now healthy and playing well for the Bears. With Martellus Bennett demanding a raise last offseason, we would not be surprised if he was traded this coming spring, with Miller becoming the starter.
Parsons
Jimmy Graham - Graham was already a disappointment in 2015 and now a season-ending and potentially career-altering injury hangs over his value entering the offseason. Plus, tight ends decline younger, on average, than wide receivers. There are a few outliers as with any trend, but betting on Graham to return to his peak crossing the 30-year-old carrier with this recovery and the limiting factors of Seattle we have seen to-date is a big risk.
Vance McDonald - McDonald is a strong metric prospect and a former second round NFL Draft pick. McDonald has the starting position in San Francisco to himself for the rest of the season thanks to Vernon Davis' trade as well as injuries. McDonald has performed well in the role and Blaine Gabbert looks surprisingly functional. McDonald is a quality spot start plus stash into the offseason.
