There is a growing movement in the Dynasty community toward “devy” players. The term “devy” refers to developmental players carried on the dynasty league rosters. These devy players are usually college players but can even be high school athletes. Each week, we will look at a different set of devy rankings.
One of the more difficult aspects of a devy dynasty league is weighing the relative upside of different players against how a specific league values positions. So, how do we value a top wide receiver who looks to be NFL ready versus a phenom quarterback? Well, this is a tough one. Let's start by saying that you should value highest the players at the positions your league's scoring values most. If you play in a league that allows the inserting of more than one quarterback into the starting lineup, then you should value the quarterback position above all others. Why? The shortage at the position in the NFL. This means that an above average devy quarterback could be worth the same as a superstar running back. Secondly, one of the ways fantasy owners get off track is to try to guesstimate the fantasy upside of an individual player. This is next to impossible because we have only seen the college player in his collegiate offensive scheme and he will need to translate those skills to a pro-style offense. It is much better to compare the prospect against his peers in terms of size, speed, explosiveness, and ability to make plays. In simple, we are not looking for production. Rather, we are looking for the traits which will translate to elite professional prospects.
This series of articles focuses on players who should be considered on their respective NFL prospects not college production. In this article, we will take a look at the top prospects who will be eligible for the 2016 NFL Draft.
5. Corey Clement (Wisconsin) – Clement has shown talent but is having a difficult 2015 season. He suffered a groin injury in the opening week against Alabama early and had been slow to get up to full speed. He was finally diagnosed with a sports hernia, and expected to miss four-to-six weeks of action. It will be difficult for the talented Badger to regain strength and conditioning until very late in the season. Clement is a good runner between the tackles and was expected to assume a large role with Melvin Gordon now in the NFL with the Chargers. He first needs to get fully healthy. We would like Clement's NFL prospects best in a one-cut system.
4. Braxton Miller (Ohio State) – We expect this ranking is a surprise to many. Miller just transitioned to the receiver position in the last few months after starting as a quarterback for the Buckeyes. He is an athletic freak. The combination of 4.47 speed (in the 40-yard dash) and size (6'3”, 210) should help NFL teams fantasize about ways to use the Ohio State star. The spin move against Virginia Tech opened eyes and made many in the national media take notice. Miller needs to show continued development as a route runner. In addition, since it was his injury that enabled Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett to see action at quarterback, Miller needs to show that he can remain healthy after taking big hits in the middle of the field.
3. Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State) – Elliott emerged late in 2014 after quarterback Cardale Jones took the reins of the offense. He started the 2015 season on the right foot with a huge game against Virginia Tech in primetime and has been impressive since. The Buckeye star possesses great vision, seemingly to hit the right hole every play, and breaking many tackles per game. He is a star. Also of note, Elliott is one full year younger than Derrick Henry, the one running back ranked above him on this list. In comeback victory over Indiana, the star ball carrier toted the rock 23 times for 274 yards and three scores.
2. Derrick Henry (Alabama) – Henry ran all over Wisconsin in the opener, winning the Maxwell Award Player of the Week and has been impressive every game. He is a physical runner who has the speed and elusiveness to pick up big yards. The huge run against Georgia opened up last week's game, allowing Alabama to coast to the victory. We expect the big (6'3”, 243 pounds) ball carrier to be the focal point of the offense the rest of the way. He has a great combination of size, speed, and acceleration and should be considered a first round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.
1. Laquon Treadwell (Mississippi) – Many are down on the Mississippi star due to his lack of production. It was not until the fourth game of the year, against Vanderbilt, that Treadwell topped the 100-yard mark. Treadwell is still extremely young, just turning 20 years of age this past June. He is a physical specimen who uses his imposing size (6'3”, 215 pounds) well in tight spaces. In addition, he runs solid routes. The biggest concern is whether Treadwell has the speed to be a top NFL receiver.
Honorable Mention
Corey Coleman (Baylor) – Coleman is the biggest riser for us this season. He has made big plays almost every week. The redshirt Junior is putting up huge numbers this season. In his first two games of the season (against lesser competition), Coleman caught 11 passes for 360 yards and five touchdowns. He is very fast, but lacks the prototypical size NFL teams desire. Coleman stands 5'11”, 190 pounds and will need to show that he can be more than a speed receiver. With the way T.Y. Hilton and John Brown have flourished in the NFL, Coleman could thrive in the right situation. After posting seven catches for 110 yards and three scores against Texas Tech last Saturday, Coleman has scored on 11 of his 24 receptions. That is an amazing ratio.
Elijah McGuire (Louisiana-Lafayette) – McGuire might be the most electric back in college football, even though he is not talked about among the nation's top prospects. He is on the smaller side (5'11”, 198 pounds) compared to the bigger backs above, but offers the ability to break off big plays almost every down. The Louisiana-Lafayette offense revolves around the big-play tailback. McGuire has good speed and shiftiness, which will enable him to transition to the professional game quickly. He profiles as a Day 2 or early Day 3 NFL pick.
Tyler Boyd (Pittsburgh) – Boyd was able to top 75 receptions and 1,000 yards in his first two collegiate seasons. He likely will not be able to reach those numbers in 2015 for a couple of reasons. Boyd started the season on suspension. For those that did not know about the suspension, Boyd was arrested in June for Driving Under the Influence. He has a slight build (6'2”, 185 pounds) and will need to add weight before the NFL Combine. The Pittsburgh Panthers do not have talent at the quarterback position. This has impacted the talented Boyd's numbers this season. He earned first team All ACC honors a year ago as a wide receiver, and second team honors as a returner. The ability to contribute as a returner will help Boyd's draft stock.
Corey Davis (Western Michigan) – Davis is still very young (20 years of age) but a mature route-runner who understands how to give his quarterback space to throw the ball. Davis uses his big frame (6'2”, 205 pounds) to shield defenders away from the ball. The two questions Davis must answer are: Is he fast and explosive enough to create separate and were the outstanding college numbers due to playing against inferior competition? We expect Davis to positively answer both questions as a professional.
Mike Williams (Clemson) – Williams would have been listed among the top three or four players on this list had he not had the very serious neck injury. The 6'3”, 205 pound receiver is a budding superstar. The injury could lead him to stay in school another year after missing almost all of the 2015 season. Williams will want to show that he is fully healed before coming out of college. Neck injuries for wide receivers are to be taken seriously.
Josh Doctson (Texas Christian) – Doctson is a red-zone star with the ability to go up and get high passes on fade routes. He uses his height (6'4”) very well and leaps over smaller defensive backs. Doctson will shine at the NFL Combine with his explosive ability, but will need to add weight to his 190-pound frame.
Devon Johnson (Marshall) – The Marshall Senior bruising runner powers the Thundering Herd offense. Johnson is a converted tight end who is a good receiver out of the backfield and a solid blocker. He had a monster 2014 campaign and is looking to build on his NFL outlook. Many scouts wonder if he will be able to run amok in the NFL like he does against middling college competition. Johnson is big (6'1”, 243 pounds) and should be a viable red-zone threat in the pros at a minimum.
Jared Goff (California) – Goff put up gaudy numbers a year ago and has a great chance to top them in 2015. As a Sophomore, Goff completed 316 of 509 passes for 3,973 yards, 35 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. He is big (6'4”, 205 pounds) and has great pocket presence. Many will discount Goff's production as a product of coach Sonny Dykes' pass-happy offense. But, Goff has showcased a quality arm and ability to read defenses. He should be considered the favorite for the first overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. The NFL is hungry for quarterbacks who put up monster college numbers and have prototypical size. Goff fits the bill on both. In a weak quarterback class, Goff shines above the competition.
Rashard Higgins (Colorado State) – Higgins is a speedster who is long and lean. He catches the ball well while on the run. Higgins should be a solid yards after the catch receiver in the NFL. In last Saturday's loss to Utah State, Higgins hauled in 10 passes for 114 yards and a score. This was his third outing over the 100-yard mark.
Michael Thomas (Ohio State) - Thomas is a solid, possession receiver who runs great routes. He is solidly built (6'3”, 205 pounds) and has good hands. Unless Thomas is able to flash speed at the NFL Combine, he may be a Day 3 pick in the Draft.
Tajae Sharpe (UMass) – Sharpe has been very productive against lesser competition. He is able to produce big plays after the catch. Unless Sharpe can show good speed in the 40-yard dash, he is looking like another Day 3 pick.
Pharoh Cooper (South Carolina) – Cooper's NFL prospects may be determined by which team drafts him. He is a versatile player, able to be an effective slot receiver and even carry the football on occasion. His lack of size will limit the number of carries Cooper can handle. We like his ability to make plays with the ball in his hands, but Cooper will need to show that he is more than a Dexter McCluster-type of player in order to be a Top 100 pick.
De'Runnya Wilson (Mississippi State) – Wilson is a big (6'5”, 215 pounds) receiver who should dominate college cornerbacks, but does not do so with any consistency. Wilson does not impose his will on the smaller defenders similarly. While he is ultra productive, there is the worry that will not be fast or physical enough to be a star in the NFL.
Christian Hackenberg (Penn State) – After a very promising Freshman season in 2013, Hackenberg struggled in 2014. There are a couple of reasons for the disappointing season. First and foremost was the loss of head coach Bill O'Brien to the Houston Texans. O'Brien did a great job with Hackenberg, and had the youngster playing at a high level. Plus, many forget that Hackenberg had future NFL star receiver Allen Robinson to target. With his coach and top pass catcher gone, Hackenberg struggled behind a poor offensive line last season. This led to poor mechanics, especially his feet, and erratic passing. The struggles have continued into 2015. Hackenberg has NFL size (6'4”, 220 pounds) and has begun turning things around. Will it be soon enough to vie for a Top 5 Draft selection? We think so. Hackenberg has made enough top shelf throws throughout his career that a team should take a chance on him high in the 2016 NFL Draft.
D'haquille Williams (Auburn) – Few receivers came into the season with as high of expectations as Williams. He is a physical freak (6'3”, 216 pounds with good speed) who is able to dominate games at times. The Auburn senior needs to improve in two big areas of the wide receiver position: route running and dropped passes. He is far less polished as a route runner than many wanted to believe and continues to drop a lot of passes. The athleticism is apparent. He just needs to improve as a pass catcher.
Evan Engram (Mississippi) – Engram's NFL outlook will be determined by which team drafts him. He is undersized for an NFL tight end. At only 6'3”, 220 pounds, Engram is a hybrid wide receiver/tight end. With all of the other weapons, many overlook Engram in the Mississippi offense, but he is a talented play-maker. Any team that drafts the undersized tight end prospect has to have a plan on how best to take advantage of his skill set. In addition, Engram is not strong enough of a blocker to line up as an inline NFL tight end. However, he is our top prospect at the position.
Cardale Jones (Ohio State) – After much ado, Jones has regained the starting quarterback job over J.T. Barrett. Both quarterbacks will be used a lot this season. Jones asserted himself down the stretch after Barrett and Braxton Miller (above) were injured. In the three contests (including the National Championship), Jones hit on 46 of his 75 passes for 742 yards, 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He added 90 more yards on the ground, plus another score. The three wins were against Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon, three of the top teams in college football. While Jones has won the starter's job this season, let's not overlook how much he still needs to improve in order to be viewed as an elite quarterback prospect. The Buckeye passer has a big arm, but little touch. In addition, he is not asked to read defenses, something which will create doubt in the minds of scouts. The following are a few quotes from Twitter regarding Jones' play last Saturday versus Indiana.
- Josh Norris (@JoshNorris): “Cardale has no touch.”
- Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler): “Not as good version of Ryan Mallett right now.” Ouch!
- Shane P. Hallam (@ShanePHallam): Cardale Jones just hasn’t had the mental development/experience yet. He struggles with reading defenses, will be an NFL projection there.
- Daniel Jeremiah (@MoveTheSticks): “Cardale Jones-- the more I watch, the less I like.”
These comments show how much Jones has to go to be considered a candidate for a top NFL selection.
That will do it for the 2016 Draft Class. Next week, we will look at the top quarterbacks of the 2017 Draft Class.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.