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There is a growing movement in the Dynasty community toward “devy” players. The term “devy” refers to developmental players carried on the dynasty league rosters. These devy players are usually college players but can even be high school athletes. Each week, we will look at a different set of devy rankings.
It is difficult to compare quarterbacks in their first year as a collegian against those who are Juniors or Seniors. In devy leagues, even with the benefit of getting a player a year or two earlier, it is much better to roster the most talented quarterbacks. Talent usually wins out over situation. This is why we will have some youngster ranked highly. We believe in their talent.
This series of articles focuses on players who should be considered on their respective NFL prospects not college production. In this article, we will take a look at the top collegiate quarterbacks prospects without regard for their eligibility for the NFL Draft. Also, keep in mind that one or more of the players eligible to turn pro when eligible will actually stay in school.
5. Jake Browning (Washington) – The true Freshman has excelled in the relative obscurity of the Pacific Northwest. Standing 6'2”, and weighing 205 pounds, His lack of height may be a concern for some NFL teams. Browning has played through injuries (specifically the shoulder injury that cause him to miss the Stanford contest) and played well. He threw four touchdowns in the first game back against Arizona, even while still feeling the effects of the injury. Browning was able to lead the Huskies to an easy win over the weekend against state rival Washington State Cougars. Through his first eleven games of his college career, Browning has completed 63% of his passes, for 2,671 yards, and a 16-10 TD-INT ratio. Those are great numbers. One of the best selling points for devy owners will be Chris Petersen as his head coach. Petersen is very good with quarterbacks.
4. Paxton Lynch (Memphis) – The redshirt Junior is a massive human being at 6'6”, 230 pounds, drawing comparisons to Pittsburgh Steelers Ben Roethlisberger and Brock Osweiler. Lynch could come out this year, but we hope he stays in school one more year. One reason why Lynch could come out, even though he would benefit from another year at the collegiate level, is the lack of quality quarterbacks in the 2016 Quarterback draft class compared to those in 2017 and 2018 NFL Draft classes. At this time, the 2017 draft class looks strong. But, this is not a great reason to come out before ready. As a positive, Lynch has improved his completion percentage each of his three seasons, going from 58% as a Freshman, to 63% as a Sophomore, to 69% as a Junior in 2015. This season, he has completed 280 of 406 passes for 3,670 yards, 28 touchdowns, and three picks. The lack of strong competition is the main concern.
3. Jared Goff (California) – Goff put up gaudy numbers a year ago and has a great chance to top them in 2015. As a Sophomore, Goff completed 316 of 509 passes for 3,973 yards, 35 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. He is big (6'4”, 205 pounds) and has great pocket presence. Many will discount Goff's production as a product of coach Sonny Dykes' pass-happy offense. But, Goff has been elite all the way back to his play at Marin Catholic High School. At this point, he should be considered the favorite for the first overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. The NFL is hungry for quarterbacks who put up monster college numbers and have prototypical size. Goff fits the bill on both. Even though we had our doubts the past few months, Tony Pauline tweeted last Friday that Goff was 99% coming out. This year, Goff has completed 60% of his passes and owns a 18-10 TD-INT ratio. His numbers are a little lower than in 2014. A could of down games in November impacted his statistics.
2. Deshaun Watson (Clemson) – Watson is one of the more electric players in college football. He has a rifle for an arm and is not afraid to throw the ball into tight spaces. His size (or lack thereof), 6'3”, 188 pounds, is a worry for many after Watson's lengthy injury history. The Sophomore is a weapon as a runner and passer. His lack of size has stirred debate due to Watson's willingness to run in the open field. Watson is young, turning 20 years old three weeks ago. Shockingly, Watson completed almost 75% of his passes through the first four games of the season, a truly remarkable statistic. He ended the season with a 70% completiong percentage and a 30-11 TD-INT ration. In addition, the Sophomore has added another 887 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. It has been quite a year for Watson. Injury is the only thing standing in the way of a Top 5 selection in the 2017 NFL Draft. He has been awesome as a Sophomore. His bevy of great receivers will only help the cause.
1. Josh Rosen (UCLA) – Rosen has possibly been the best quarterback in the country this season. As a true Freshman, he has shown the poise and a strong arm of an upperclassman. Rosen has NFL size, 6'4”, 208 pounds and has excelled as a pocket passer. Through his Freshman season, Rosen has thrown for over 3,350 yards and a 20-9 TD-INT ratio this season. The most impressive statistic may be the 60 % completion percentage. Considering the impressive start to his collegiate career, we expect Rosen to develop further and become the unquestioned top college quarterback by next season. This ranking may surprise many. Given that Rosen is still a true Freshman, he should easily surpass those listed above. Rosen has the look of a NFL star.
Honorable Mention
Brad Kaaya (Miami, FL) – Kaaya started slowly as a Freshman, but played very well down the stretch. The game against Florida State last year was especially memorable. The 6'4”, 210 pound Sophomore has a big-time arm and is not afraid to throw down the field. After the loss of Phillip Dorsett, Clive Walford, and Duke Johnson Jr, Miami lacks weapons in the passing game. This puts even more pressure on the youngster to carry the offense. Kaaya is efficient as a passer and stands strong in the pocket. Through eleven games, he has completed 62% of his passes and owns a 15-4 TD-INT ratio. Kaaya has improved as a passer even though it is difficult to tell with the lack of weapons. Keep an eye on him next year. The new coaching staff may install a new offense.
Connor Cook (Michigan State) – Cook is one of those prospects who you think is a good prospect but you can never pull the trigger and select him in a draft. It happens to all fantasy owners. Some compare Cook to Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. They are similar in a couple of ways. While the fantasy football community continues to bash on Dalton, imagine how vilified he would be if playing on a poor team. This is a very real possibility for Cook. Imagine him playing in either Cleveland or Washington. It would be a big, hot mess. Both quarterbacks perform much better with a clean pocket, and struggle when pressured. As a Senior, Cook has completed 57 % of his passes. This is down from the 58% and 59%, respectively, the past two seasons. We worry about the NFL future of quarterbacks who do not compete at least 60% of their passes.
Kyle Allen (Texas A&M) – Even with all that has happened this season, the 6'4”, 195 pound Allen has a chance to be a star. The Sophomore is just 19 years old does not turn 20 until March. The Aggies benched Allen for Freshman Kyler Murray quickly re-installed Allen as the leader of the Texas A&M offense. The Sophomore has a strong arm and can make all of the throws. Yes, he needs to bulk up his frame, but that will come with age. Allen is still very young. He has struggled some this season. After completing almost 62% of his passes as a Freshman, Allen has only completed less than 57% in 2015.
Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) – Wentz is a big, pocket-passing quarterback who has played well in all season. Many scouts like his size and athletic ability. But, Wentz's best quality may be his strong arm and the ability to throw with touch. He has a chance to be a first round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Keep an eye out for Wentz through the draft process.
Christian Hackenberg (Penn State) – After a very promising Freshman season in 2013, Hackenberg struggled in 2014. There are a couple of reasons for the disappointing season. First and foremost was the loss of head coach Bill O'Brien to the Houston Texans. O'Brien did a great job with Hackenberg, and had the youngster playing at a high level. Plus, many forget that Hackenberg had future NFL star receiver Allen Robinson to target. He completed 59% of his passes as a Freshman. With his coach and top pass catcher gone, Hackenberg struggled behind a poor offensive line last season. This led to poor mechanics, especially his feet, and erratic passing. Hackenberg has NFL size (6'4”, 220 pounds) and has been erratic all season, mixing NFL-quality plays with poor throws and judgment. Hackenberg should still be a high draft pick if he comes out this year. The Penn State team is a mess and the criticism is mounting for the current coaching regime. Hackenberg has made enough top shelf throws throughout his career that a team should take a chance on him high in the 2016 NFL Draft. We are not suggesting that Hackenberg should come out, just that the desperation level for NFL teams to find a quarterback seemingly increases each year. But, Hackenberg's Junior season numbers are sobering. He completed just 53% of his passes in a conservative, run-oriented offense featuring Saquon Barkley.
Jarrett Stidham (Baylor) – Stidham looked great after replacing the injured Seth Russell, who was lost for the season with a fractured neck bone. Stidham is just a true Freshman, but looked fantastic in limited playing time. The 6'2”, 213-pound youngster will miss the remainder of the season himself with a broken bone in his ankle. He suffered the injury in the second quarter of the Oklahoma State game. If he looked comfortable in the Baylor offense, well he should. Stidham starred at Stephenville High School, where Baylor coach Art Briles installed the system in the late 1980s and 1990s. The combination of Briles and the system gave Baylor a huge edge in recruiting Stidham. If Seth Russell (see below) leaves for the NFL, Stidham could easily step in and put up big numebrs.
J.T. Barrett (Ohio State) – Barrett is a mobile, undersized (only 6'1” - much shorter than the NFL norm) quarterback who has a good arm but might need time to develop into a NFL quarterback. There was much buzz this offseason about how Barrett has improved as a quarterback, especially his throwing down the field. His lack of height and lack of experience in the pocket will be obstacles to overcome. Barrett has outplayed Cardale Jones (see below) this season. His ability to run with the football is a positive in the eyes of coach Urban Meyer. We are still unsure if Barrett will be able to improve enough to be a first round draft pick.
Seth Russell (Baylor) – Russell has put up gaudy numbers while replacing Bryce Petty. Many did not have high expectations for the 6'2”, 220 pound redshirt Junior. Before injury, he was a Top 5 candidate for the Heisman Trophy. In the game against Kansas, Russell was pulled at halftime after throwing for 246 yards and three touchdowns in two quarters. Russell attempted exactly 200 passes this season, completing 119 (60%) with a 29-6 TD-INT ratio through seven games. What is amazing is the high completion percentage given that Russell threw down the field often, averaging 10.5 yards per pass attempt. With highly recruited Freshman Jarrett Stidham waiting in the wings, Russell may turn pro after the season. The Baylor star may like his chances after the record-breaking season. He will be 22 years old in January which could contribute to the decision. But, at the end of the day, will the NFL teams discount the production because of the scheme? This is the reason we have him slated with the 2017 class.
Cardale Jones (Ohio State) – For the 2016 season, Ohio State was in an enviable position at quarterback. Jones battled J.T. Barrett for the starting gig. Both quarterbacks were used a lot this season. Coach Urban Meyer even moved last year's opening day starter Braxton Miller to H-back because of the talent and faith he has in Jones and Barrett. The 2014/2015 championship season was an amazing one for Ohio State and Jones. He emerged after both Miller and Barrett were injured. Jones had a combined 17 pass attempts going into the pivotal last three games of the season. But, in those three contests (including the National Championship), Jones hit on 46 of his 75 passes for 742 yards, 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He added 90 more yards on the ground, plus another score. The three wins were against Wisconsin, Alabama, and Oregon … three of the top teams in college football. Even though many view this season as disappointing for Jones, he has completed 62% of his passes, which is up from last year (61%). The Buckeye coaching staff did a great job of giving Jones minimal reads before making the throw. This will be a drawback during the NFL Draft process. We still like his future if given a chance to sit and learn for a year as a professional. There is plenty of upside with the strong arm and proven ability to excel under the big lights.
That will do it for the quarterbacks. Next week, we will look at the top overall devy running backs.
Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback. Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.
