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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-22-15, 7:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 5 games
Temple at East Carolina
Kickoff: 10-22-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: ECU -3
O/U: 52.5
Temple
Expected Team Total Points: 24.75
RB Jahad Thomas – 8,900
Analysis: Thomas is the engine that makes the Temple offense go. He’s received at least 20 carries in each game but one this season, and has scored at least one touchdown in every contest Temple has played. He now faces an East Carolina defense that has given up over 100 yards to BYU’s Algernon Brown and Tulsa’s Zach Langer back to back weeks and is allowing 186 rushing yards per game (90th in the FBS).
Recommendation: It’s going to be very difficult to fit Thomas into your lineup this week. His price is exorbitant at 8,900 and you’ll need to punt at other positions to fit him in. We think that he’s a good bet to hit value, but building a strong lineup around him is going to be a real challenge.
East Carolina
Expected Team Total Points: 27.75
WR Isaiah Jones – 5,300 WR Trevon Brown 4,300
Analysis: East Carolina’s rotating of quarterbacks has largely made Jones’s production unpredictable this season. Since James Summers began seeing action at quarterback four games ago against Virginia Tech, Jones has yet to amass more than 100 yards in a game. He’s up to 51 catches and 595 yards on the year, but of that, 30 catches and 342 yards came in the first three games of the year, while Blake Kemp was exclusively the Pirates’ quarterback. Trevon Brown, who missed the first three games due to suspension, caught a touchdown in each of his first three games. He would have made it four consecutive games with a score last week, but had a 55 yard touchdown nullified by an illegal procedure penalty.
Recommendation: Between Jones and Brown, Jones represents the better cash game option due to the high volume of targets he sees most games, whereas Brown is a nice tournament play at the discounted rate of only 4,300.
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State
Kickoff: 10-22-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Appalachian State -6
O/U: 63.5
Georgia Southern
Expected Team Total Points: 28.75
RB Matt Breida – 8,500 RB LA Ramsby – 4,300 RB Wesley Fields 3,400
Analysis: Just like he was in 2014, Breida has again been one of the most explosive running backs in the country in 2015. Amongst running backs, he’s leading the nation with an outrageous 10.3 yards per carry. He’s ran for at least 130 yards and scored a touchdown in each of Georgia Southern’s last five games. The Appalachian State defense has only allowed one 100 yard rusher in 2015, but they’ve yet to face a squad so committed to the run as Georgia Southern. Ramsby and Fields operate as the second and third running backs for Georgia Southern. Both see more work than your average back-ups due to the nature of the option offense. Ramsby has scored four times in the past two weeks and has received at least ten carries in every game this year. Fields’s carry allotment has been a bit more sporadic, but he’s scored in four straight games.
Recommendation: Breida shares the backfield with two interchanging quarterbacks and two running backs, LA Ramsby and Wesley Fields, who all see significant carries. Through his entire two season college career, Breida has only seen 20 carries on one occasion. Granted, Breida’s game is largely predicated on his explosiveness more than receiving a high volume of touches, but we feel that in a tough matchup this week he’s best used in tournaments rather than cash games. Ramsby and Fields may not produce like they have in the blowouts that Georgia Southern has been involved in this year, but they’ll both be materially involved in the offense on Thursday. Scores in an option offense are difficult to predict, and both will need to score to hit value. With that being said, we like both Ramsby and Fields at their cost, and if you need a running back at either of their price points, you won’t find a better value.
Appalachian State
Expected Team Total Points: 34.75
RB Marcus Cox – 6,600
Analysis: Marcus Cox is off to a stellar start to 2015, averaging 115 yards per game. That number could be even more inflated if Appalachian State wasn’t consistently blowing out its opponents. So far through its first six games, the Mountaineers have only played one game that has been decided by less than 30 points. Still, with that being the case, Cox is averaging 19 carries on the season. It would be very surprising if Thursday’s game turned into a blowout for either side, as these teams appear to be very evenly matched on paper. Last season, Appalachian State leaned on Cox more as the team entered Sun Belt play, and he averaged 30.2 carries over the team’s final five games. A 25-30 carry effort from Cox may be in the cards this week.
Recommendation: Cox is nicely priced for a true bell-cow running back. He should clear 100 yards and we view him as a solid cash game option.
California at UCLA
Kickoff: 10-22-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: UCLA -3
O/U: 68
California
Expected Team Total Points: 32.5
QB Jared Goff – 8,500
Analysis: Goff has not thrown the ball quite as much this year as he did in his first two seasons as Cal quarterback, but the Cal offense still largely relies on the passing game to make the offense go. Goff has thrown for over 300 yards in four of Cal’s last five game, though the effort against Utah two weeks in which he threw five interceptions was one to forget. UCLA’s pass defense has been strong this year, holding opponents to the FBS’s 20th best rate of only 176.2 yards per game through the air. Recent losses and close games that the Bruins have played against Stanford, Arizona State, and BYU have shown us that if you want to beat UCLA, your best bet is to do so is via the ground, as they’ve allowed 221 yards in those three games.
Recommendation: UCLA has yet to give up 300 yards passing this season, and this is one of the tougher matchups Goff will face this year. At his elevated price of 8,500, we’re not recommending him this week.
RB Daniel Lasco – 4,700
Analysis: Lasco has been a mess this year since his solid effort in week two against San Diego State. Since then he’s only seen scarce playing time due to a hip injury and only received one carry in Cal’s last game against Utah. According to interviews with coaches this week, he’s no lock to play this week and even if he does, his role is uncertain. It’s possible more details will emerge, but at this point, he’s got to be considered questionable for Thursday.
Recommendation: Lasco was a monster in 2014, but even at his discounted price this week, it’s very difficult to confidently slot him in your lineup. Monitor Twitter leading up to lineup lock, but even if we got confirmation that he’s starting, he’d still only be a risky tournament option.
WR Kenny Lawler – 5,900
Analysis: Lawler has been by far the most consistent Cal receiver, and has also been the team’s best red zone option. He leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns and has caught at least six passes in all but one game. In a game that projects to be a back and forth shootout, Lawler should see plenty of targets.
Recommendation: Other than the Memphis tandem of Garrett and Atkinson, Lawler is our favorite cash game option at the reasonable price of 5,900. He has a safe floor, and with Cal struggling in recent weeks to run the ball, the game plan should largely focus on the passing game.
UCLA
Expected Team Total Points: 35.5
QB Josh Rosen – 6,900
Analysis: Rosen has put up big lines the past couple of weeks, but most of that output has come in a comeback effort after the team has fallen behind. In games against Arizona State and Stanford, Rosen has looked very shaky early on, and UCLA falling behind has largely been due to his poor play. Though Cal’s pass defense has a reputation for being one of the worst in the country on a yearly basis, they’re only allowing 236.3 yards per game through the air this season, and have only given up five passing touchdowns, to go along with 12 interceptions.
Recommendation: Despite the possibility that UCLA will rely more on the ground game this week, after Rosen has struggled in recent games, his price of 6,900 makes him one of the better values in this slate. He’ll probably be heavily owned, but he gives you some roster flexibility while also offering the upside that we’ve already seen on display at times this season.
RB Paul Perkins – 7,800
Analysis: Perkins hasn’t been overly productive the past two weeks, but that’s largely been due to UCLA having to play catch-up in games that they were trailing throughout. Consider that in UCLA’s losses the past two games against Arizona State and Stanford, Perkins only received an average of 16 carries, but in the previous two wins against BYU and Arizona, Perkins averaged 25 carries. California doesn’t have the running game that is required to jump out to a big lead on UCLA and we feel that the game script sets up nicely for Perkins. Cal gave up 222 yards to Devonte Booker in their last game, and their rank as 47th best run defense is somewhat misleading, as the Golden Bears haven’t faced very many formidable running backs in 2015.
Recommendation: We feel Perkins is a great cash game option in this slate. He should easily clear 100 yards and score at least once. We expect him to be the focal point of the Bruins offense Thursday night.
WR Jordan Payton – 5,800 Darren Andrews 3,700
Analysis: Payton appears to be developing more of a rapport with Josh Rosen as the 2015 moves forward. After hauling in only 12 passes in UCLA’s first three games, he’s amassed 19 in the previous three. He only has one 100 yard game to his credit though, and UCLA is an offense that spreads the ball around to a number of receivers. Andrews has now started at slot receiver for UCLA in their last two games. After catching three passes for 40 yards against Arizona State, he broke out with a four catch, 100 yard effort against Stanford. He has game breaking speed, but to this point his resume is mostly just those two games.
Recommendation: At Payton’s price point of 5,800, we prefer paying up slightly more to roster either Kenny Lawler or Josh Atkinson. Andrews is a risky tournament option, but at the price of 3,700 he could easily hit value.
Memphis at Tulsa
Kickoff: 10-23-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Memphis -10.5
O/U: 74.5
Memphis
Expected Team Total Points: 42.5
QB Paxton Lynch – 9,100
Analysis: Fresh off a terrific performance in Memphis’s upset of Ole Miss, Lynch now faces a Tulsa defense that is allowing 276.7 yards per game. Lynch has thrown for at least 300 yards and multiple scores in each of Memphis’s last five games, and Tulsa won’t be able to snap either of those streaks this week. A letdown is certainly possible for Memphis coming off of such a big win, but even if the Tigers lose, Lynch will account for plenty of offense.
Recommendation: We don’t recommend building a lineup around Lynch this week. His price is exorbitant and he doesn’t run enough to put up the 40-50 point game that you would need him to produce to make up for the lesser talent that you would roster along with him.
WR Anthony Miller – 4,800
Analysis: Both Mose Frazier and Anthony Miller are coming off career games against Ole Miss. Frazier secured eight passes for 83 yards and a score, while Miller caught 10 balls for 132 yards and a touchdown. Prior to that game, Frazier had only recorded one game this season with more than five catches and Miller had a total of zero such games. The matchup this week against Tulsa is a great one, but Memphis really spreads the ball around, with seven different receivers catching at least 10 passes so far in 2015.
Recommendation: Miller doesn’t represent a high enough of a floor to be recommended for cash games, but he has had big games two of the past three weeks and we feel he makes for an ideal tournament play. If he continues his trend of recent play, he’ll make that 4,800 price tag look silly.
Tulsa
Expected Team Total Points: 32
QB Dane Evans – 8,000
Analysis: No one is going to confuse Dane Evans for a great quarterback, but up until last week he had at least been able to take advantage of a great offensive system. Then, against East Carolina on Saturday, Evans completed 19 of 40 passes for 288 yards, and was largely ineffective moving the Tulsa offense in a 30-17 loss. This was the first game that Evans failed to top 300 yards in 2015 and the poor effort is probably largely the result of his top receiver, Keevan Lucas, being lost for the remainder of 2015. Even more discouraging, four star quarterback, true freshman Chad President had his redshirt burned in the game against ECU, and was used in short yardage and red zone packages. President was very effective in those situations, and it’s like that he’ll snipe touchdown opportunities from Evans going forward. Working in his favor, Evans is going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the NCAA, as Memphis is allowing 329 yards per game through the air.
Recommendation: The combination of Evans’ recent play and the emergence of President is reason for pause but, the matchup and shootout projection have us loving Evans this week. He should have no trouble throwing for more than 300 yards, and even if he initially struggles, the coaching staff clearly doesn’t have faith in President’s passing ability at this point, as he only attempted one pass last week. Evans is best utilized as a GPP play this week.
RB Zack Langer – 5,900
Analysis: Langer has emerged as the clear workhorse for Tulsa this year, running for 596 yards and 11 touchdowns thus far in 2015. He’s more of a compiler than game-breaker however, as he only averages 3.9 yards per carry and has only had one run longer than 20 yards on the season. Memphis is only allowing 3.4 yards per carry, and 116.3 rush yards per game – 24th best in the FBS. The success Memphis has had against the run is probably somewhat due to teams’ preference to throw against their horrid pass defense, but Tulsa will likely be trailing for much of the game this Friday, and be forced to throw more than they’d necessarily like to.
Recommendation: Langer likely won’t find much success this week against a stout Memphis run defense. We’re not recommending him in a game in which Tulsa will likely have to lean on the aerial attack.
WR Keyarris Garrett – 6,600 WR Josh Atkinson 6,100 WR Justin Hobbs 4,200
Analysis: Garrett and Atkinson have him two of the most consistent receivers in the country this year. Garrett is averaging 116.3 yards per game receiving, good for 9th nationally. If you take away the first game of the season, in which Josh Atkinson did not record a catch, he is averaging 115.2 yards per game. In the two games since Keevan Lucas was lost for the season, Garrett and Atkinson have accounted for 62 percent of Tulsa’s catches and 64 percent of the team’s receiving yards. Justin Hobbs has caught eight passes for 140 yards and a touchdown in the two games since Keevan Lucas was lost for the season. He’s clearly behind Garrett and Atkinson in the pecking order, but he’s priced reasonably and should see a solid allotment of targets.
Recommendation: Both Garrett and Atkinson are great cash game options. Tulsa will be throwing often against one of the worst secondaries in the FBS and there’s little doubt that Atkinson and Garrett will be the beneficiaries. We prefer Atkinson if forced to pick between the two, as he’s on a streak of five straight 100 yard games, whereas Garrett has failed to reach 100 yards in three straight – but both should be in for solid games against Memphis. Atkinson’s price of 6,100 is a nice tiebreaker as there’s little reason that he should be priced lower than Garrett considering the recent play of both. Hobbs offers salary relief, and even as the third receiver in the Tulsa offense, has the potential to have a big game, as Tulsa should be throwing all night long.
Utah State at San Diego State
Kickoff: 10-23-15, 10:30 PM EST
Spread: Utah State -5
O/U: 45
Utah State
Expected Team Total Points: 25
QB Kent Myers – 5,500
Analysis: Since taking over for the injured Chuckie Keeton three weeks ago, Myers has been very impressive. The only game that he did not produce a solid fantasy performance was against a porous Fresno State defense that Utah State was able to score at will against by just riding their running backs all game long. In his other two games, against Colorado State and Boise State, Myers’s combined numbers are 294 passing yards, 4 passing touchdowns, 254 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns. It’s highly unlikely that Utah State will find much success running the ball with Devonte Mays and LaJuan Hunt, as San Diego State is only allowing 93.7 yards per game on the ground. We expect that as a result, it will be up to Myers to shoulder the burden of moving the offense. He proved last week that he can play well against a tough defense when he led the Aggies to an upset over Boise State, and we expect another good showing this week.
Recommendation: If you are looking for a cheaper option at quarterback, Myers is the one that we recommend. This game has the lowest over/under in this slate (of only 45) so clearly the expectation is that this will not be an offensive affair, but we feel that Myers should do enough with his arm and legs to return value on his affordable price.
WR Hunter Sharp – 6,500
Analysis: Sharp is the clear top option in the Utah State passing game. Since returning from his two week suspension to start the season, he’s hauled in 23 balls for 378 yards and three scores, in four games. The San Diego State pass defense has been far more exploitable than their run defense this season, as they’ve allowed three 100 yard receivers in seven games.
Recommendation: Sharp’s price is reasonable and we think he’s a good bet to hit value. He is by far the most targeted receiver in this offense, and even in a low scoring game, Sharp should produce. We prefer some of the higher priced options, but for Sharp’s price, he is a fine play.
San Diego State
Expected Team Total Points: 20
RB Donnell Pumphrey – 8,400
Analysis: The matchup for Pumphrey this week is about as tough as they come. Utah State’s run defense is sixth best in the country. The Aggies are only allowing 90.8 yards per game on the ground and have only allowed one 100 yard rusher in 2015. Pumphrey has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of his last three games, but even if he crosses that threshold for a fourth consecutive game, he shouldn’t be expected to produce at his usually elite rate.
Recommendation: Pumphrey’s matchup has us avoiding him in favor of the other top options in this slate.