- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 9-24-15, 7:30 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 3 games
Cincinnati at Memphis
Kickoff: 9-24-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Memphis -11
O/U: 65.5
Cincinnati
Expected Team Total Points: 27.25
QB Gunner Kiel – 8,600 QB Hayden Moore 6,200
Analysis: Gunner Kiel was knocked out of last week’s game, but passed his concussion test, and is said to mostly be dealing with a shoulder issue at this point. Kiel was struggling against Miami (Ohio) last week prior to leaving the game, and threw four interceptions the week prior against Temple. He has put up huge stat lines before in this offense, but 2015 has gotten off to a rocky start. Kiel has taken snaps in practice both Monday and Tuesday, and while it’s unlikely that we’ll know the starter before kickoff, the situation seems to be trending toward Kiel starting.
Recommendation: The uncertainty surrounding who will start keeps both guys from being cash game options. The realistic possibility exists that Kiel starts and either gets pulled for ineffectiveness, or gets injured again. It’s likely that this game turns into a shootout and the Cincinnati quarterback will have a large role in that, so taking a stab in a tournament at one of these guys could pay off big time.
RB Mike Boone – 5,900 RB Tion Green 4,800 RB Hosey Williams 5,500
Analysis: Mike Boone has been very productive in the limited role he’s had so far in his Cincinnati career. Last year as a freshman, Boone averaged 6.4 yards per carry and scored nine touchdowns, but only saw double digit touches on five occasions. Boone was off to a great start to 2015, and last week turned four early carries into 118 yards before spraining his ankle and not seeing any action in the second half. If Boone sits we should see close to a 50/50 split in carries between Williams and Green. Both turned in workmanlike efforts against a bad Ball State defense last week, with Williams rushing for 81 yards on 17 carries and Green turning 19 rushes into 66 yards.
Recommendation: While Boone is the most explosive of Cincy’s trio of running backs, even when healthy his role is inconsistent week to week. Green will start at running back this week even if Boone does suit up, and at 4,800 he is reasonably priced. His upside is not very high, but Green is the Cincinnati back to own this week. Williams’ role would also increase if Boone was ruled out, but he’s priced higher than Green and we can’t justify rolling Williams out in lineups. If we get word that Boone will dress and play, he’d be worth a shot in GPPs as a high risk, high reward option.
WR Shaq Washington – 5,400 Chris Moore – 4,700 Mekale McKay – 4,600 Johnny Holton – 4,200
Analysis: The Cincinnati receiving corps is as much of a roulette wheel as you will find in the FBS. Every now and then one of them breaks through for a big game, but for the most part the distribution of targets is fairly equitable. Mekale McKay missed last week’s game due to injury, though he’s likely to suit up Thursday. Shaq Washington leads the team in catches, with 17, and is second in yards with 166.
Recommendation: None of these guys are great options, especially when factoring in the potential for Gunner Kiel to miss this game. Washington has the highest floor of any Cincy receiver – he’s caught at least three passes in every game since the beginning of 2014 – but at 5,400, he’s not one of the better values in this slate. Moore, Holton, and McKay are all high risk GPP plays.
Memphis
Expected Team Total Points: 38.25
QB Paxton Lynch – 9,000
Analysis: Lynch is off to a great start in 2015, throwing for 818 yards and six touchdown in three games, though he only had to throw for 78 yards in Memphis’s season opener against FCS opponent Missouri State. Cincinnati’s pass defense on the surface appears solid, only allowing 152 yards per game through the air so far in 2015. However, their first game was against an FCS foe and their second was against Temple, who was content just running all over the Bearcats for 215 yards. On Thursday, we expect the Cincinnati defense to closer represent the unit that gave up an average of 266 yards passing in 2014.
Recommendation: Lynch is our top cash game play in this slate. Though he’s expensive, he should have no trouble throwing for over 300 yards. Memphis can score numerous different ways when they get in the red zone (multiple running backs and receivers have rushing touchdowns so far in 2015) and as a result, Lynch might not have the prototypical touchdown upside, but he’s an extremely safe pick.
RB Doroland Dorceous – 4,400
Analysis: Dorceus led Memphis in rushing last week with 16 carries for 75 yards, and though this was the first time he’d received double digit carries this season, he’s scored in every game so far. Though the Memphis backfield is crowded, beat writer Tom Schad noted that from the second quarter onward against Bowling Green, Dorceus was the “go to guy.” Memphis will certainly continue to rotate in multiple backs, but it’s possible that we’re seeing Dorceus stake his claim as top back. Cincinnati has allowed 178 rushing yards per game so far, 83rd in the FBS.
Recommendation: Dorceus is reasonably priced at 4,400. While he’s unlikely to have a monster game, he’s a good bet to see 15 touches and should find the end zone as the top running back on a team that projects to play comfortably from ahead. He’s a nice cash game option that gives you flexibility to fit in higher priced players.
WR Sam Craft – 5,700
Analysis: Craft has been listed as the team’s starting running back, but has yet to lead Memphis in carries in a game this season. He’s utilized in both the running and passing game though, and his versatility gives him a path to touches going forward, even if Dorceus continues to emerge.
Recommendation: Priced at 5,700, and interestingly listed at Wide Receiver, on DraftKings, Craft is a risky play this week. Though he’s received double digits carries in two of three games, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Craft receive less touches in a running capacity this week. His versatility will keep him on the field, but the lack of guaranteed carries makes it difficult to recommend him as anything other than a tournament option.
WR Mose Frazier – 6,600
Analysis: Frazier is Memphis’s top option in the passing game, but in an offense that utilizes so many different running backs and receivers, it’s not surprising that he’s yet to surpass the 100 yard receiving plateau in a game in 2015. The 17 catches so far is an impressive total, and Frazier’s consistently minor role as a runner is an added bonus, but he shouldn’t be viewed as a true number one receiver, in an offense that spreads the ball around to so many different receivers.
Recommendation: Frazier is the highest priced receiver in this slate, and though he’s likely to have a decent day, it’s tough to see him justifying this price unless he catches a couple of long touchdowns. We prefer paying up for running backs when constructing a lineup this week, and feel that better values can be had at the receiver position.
Boise State at Virginia
Kickoff: 9-25-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Boise State -2.5
O/U: 50
Boise State
Expected Team Total Points: 26.25
QB Brett Rypien – 5,500 QB – Thomas Stuart 5,900
Analysis: True Freshman Brett Rypien looked strong in his first action last week after starter, Ryan Finley left the game with a broken ankle. Rypien completed eight of his nine pass attempts for 126 yards and was consistently making challenging throws down the field. Boise State Coach Bryan Harsin has already said that both Rypien and Thomas Stuart will both see action against Virginia and a starter has not been named, but trusted beat writer Chadd Cripe expects Rypien to see 70-80 percent of the snaps. Stuart’s strong suit is his running ability, so if Boise State is to exploit a Virginia pass defense that is allowing 261 yards per game through the air, it will be Rypien that is doing most of the throwing.
Recommendation; While Rypien is a four star recruit and should see a game plan that emphasizes his ability as a pocket passer, this game will be played in a hostile environment on a Thursday night on national television. He looked very capable last week against Idaho State, but this game represents a far greater challenge. There’s uncertainty at quarterback all over this slate and overall, and we feel Rypien is no more risky than if you were to start a Cincinnati or Stanford quarterback. Because Stuart will be assured playing time, Rypien is best utilized as a tournament play.
RB Jeremy McNichols 8,700
Analysis: McNichols has been the focal point of Boise State’s offense so far this season, and that’s likely to remain the case this week with the Broncos playing two quarterbacks who have never started a game before. McNichols has scored eight touchdowns in the first three games and though he’s yet to break 100 yards in a game and has only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, he’s the clear top running back on the team. Virginia has been soft against the run so far this year, giving up an average of 203 rush yards per game against Notre Dame and UCLA, the two FBS opponents that they have faced.
Recommendation: Jeremy McNichols is the most expensive running back in this slate at 8.700. There’s little doubt that he will get plenty of carries in this game, but he will need to likely rush for at least 120 yards and a couple of scores to justify that price. Even if he does, taking McNichols really limits your ability to incorporate valuable mid-range options into your lineup. Because you will have to use multiple cheap players alongside him, we recommend McNichols as a GPP play this week.
WR Thomas Sperbeck 6,400 WR Shane Williams-Rhodes 6,300
Analysis: Sperbeck and Williams-Rhodes dominate targets for Boise, securing 47 percent of the team’s receptions thus far. Williams-Rhodes is used primarily on screens and short passes, while Sperbeck is used more on downfield targets. Virginia’s pass defense hasn’t been strong so far, but it should be expected that with a quarterback making his first career start, the Broncos will look to lean on the running game. Last week while Brett Rypien was in at quarterback, Sperbeck caught one pass for 46 yards, while Williams-Rhodes hauled in two balls for 24 yards.
Recommendation: Both receivers are priced similarly to each other and are not cheap options. Williams-Rhodes should see more targets and has the higher floor of the two, while Sperbeck could have a big game if Boise State trusts one of their young quarterbacks to stretch the field. We feel Williams-Rhodes is the better cash game option and that Sperbeck makes more sense in tournaments.
Virginia
Expected Team Total Points: 23.75
QB Matt Johns 6,300
Analysis: Johns has been surprisingly consistent so far this season after beating out Grayson Lambert for the starting job this summer. He’s thrown for 238, 289, and 263 yards along with seven touchdowns, against UCLA, Notre Dame, and William & Mary in the team’s first three games. It’s highly unlikely that Virginia will have success running the ball against a Boise State defense that is allowing only 1.7 yards per carry, so the burden will fall on Johns to move the offense.
Recommendation: Considering that three of the quarterback options in this slate – Cincinnati, Boise State, and Stanford – have serious concerns about how playing time will be distributed, Johns’ health and job security are a welcome sight. The fact that Boise State has such a strong run defense should lend itself to Johns having to throw more, giving him a nice floor. It’s unlikely he has a huge game, but he is a solid cash game target and should throw for at least 200 yards and a couple of scores.
RB Taquan Mizzell 7,900
Analysis: Mizzell has been a huge factor in the passing game early on this season for Virginia, catching 17 passes for 233 yards already. He hasn’t been nearly as effective on the ground, only averaging 3.3 yards per carry in Virginia’s two games against FBS opponents. The matchup with Boise State is an extremely difficult one, as the Broncos have only given up a total of 137 rushing yards in their three games played.
Recommendation: While we place additional value on running backs who catch passes when setting DraftKings lineups because of the PPR format, Mizzell is likely going to have a very tough time justifying that 7,900 price tag. Boise State’s defense should have little trouble stuffing him on handoffs, and the majority of his fantasy points should come from catching passes. There are better options in this slate and we consider him a GPP option. Though it’s improbable, the potential exists for Mizzell to catch enough check down passes to produce a big game.
WR Canaan Severin 4,500 WR T.J. Thorpe 3,000
Analysis: Canaan Severin has established himself as Matt Johns’ top target early on, catching 19 passes so far. He caught 11 passes two weeks ago against Notre Dame and scored his first touchdown of the season against William & Mary last week. Boise State’s ability to stop the run should have Virginia throwing more, and Severin should be a big beneficiary of that. T.J. Thorpe transferred in from UNC via the graduate waiver and was said to be establishing solid chemistry with Matt Johns this summer. Shortly before the season began though, Thorpe broke his collar bone and missed the team’s first two games. He returned to the field last week, though he didn’t catch a pass, and is listed as a starter for this week’s game. Per newsplex.com, Johns stated this week that “the connection that I have with Canaan right now, I had that all summer with TJ. When I lost TJ in the summer, it was hard. I did not take it well. And I had to put it aside, and we focused on what we had. But having him back is just a huge deal, and I can't wait to play with him.”
Recommendation: Severin’s price is very reasonable and he’s a solid cash game option. Virginia will need to get their top receiver involved if they hope to move the ball, as the team will likely have minimal success running the ball. Thorpe is our top minimum priced option in this slate. He was very inconsistent at UNC, but Virginia clearly views him as someone they expect to be a contributor this week, listing him as a starting receiver now that he’s recovered from his injury.
Stanford at Oregon State
Kickoff: 9-25-15, 10:00 PM EST
Spread: Stanford -15.5
O/U: *None available due to uncertainty of Kevin Hogan’s status
Stanford
Expected Team Total Points: *None available due to uncertainty of Kevin Hogan’s status
QB Kevin Hogan 7,300 QB Keller Chryst 5,400
Analysis: Kevin Hogan is going to be a game time decision on Friday, as he’s currently recovering from a bad ankle sprain he suffered last week. He’s coming off back to back impressive outings against USC and Central Florida, throwing for a combined 620 yards and five touchdowns in those two games. We likely won’t know until close to kick-off if Hogan will play, but based on Stanford’s history and the matchup, we expect the Cardinal to rely heavily on the running game.
Recommendation: At this point it really feels like a coin flip whether or not Hogan plays. Even if he does though, we’re not expecting him to match his numbers from the past two weeks. If Keller Chryst were to get the starting nod in Hogan’s place, Stanford would likely be even more committed to running the ball. Chryst would be a rather cheap punt option, but wouldn’t offer much in the way of upside.
RB Christian McCaffrey 7,200
Analysis: Two weeks ago, Oregon State allowed 225 rushing yards against Michigan, who like Stanford runs a pro-style offense. With Stanford’s quarterback situation very much in flux leading up to this game, expectation is that the Cardinal will rely heavily on the running game. Even though Redmound Wright is likely to vulture scoring opportunities from McCaffrey, McCaffrey will see 20 carries and will also add value as a receiver.
Recommendation: McCaffrey is a very safe option this week. He’s a great building block for your cash game lineups.
Oregon State
Expected Team Total Points: *None available due to uncertainty of Kevin Hogan’s status
QB Seth Collins 7,700
Analysis: While Seth Collins has only thrown for 306 yards so far this season, he’s been able to make up for it by running for 294 yards. Unfortunately, in Oregon State’s only real test thus far, against a tough Michigan defense, Collins was able to only throw for 79 yards and rush for an additional 28. The Stanford defense might not be quite as tough as Michigan’s but expectations should be tempered for Collins this week.
Recommendation: We expect Collins to struggle this week in a tough matchup. While there will be times this year that he’ll put up big rushing stats, Stanford will be keyed in on making sure his running ability is contained.
RB Storm Barrs-Woods 6,000
Analysis: Barrs-Woods rushed for 151 yards last week against San Jose State, but the matchup is substantially tougher on Friday. After a disappointing effort against Northwestern, Stanford only allowed 39 rush yards to Central Florida, and last week kept USC to a modest 155 yards on the ground. While Barrs-Woods’ role of lead running back is not in question, his volume of carries is capped by Seth Collins’ role as a runner.
Recommendation: Barrs-Woods’ numbers against San Jose State, one of the worst rush defenses in the country, greatly inflated what has been an otherwise disappointing season so far for the running back. Though Stanford’s defense is a concern, it is Collins’ vulturing of carries and scoring opportunities that really concerns us. For the price of 6,000, Barrs-Woods doesn’t offer the safe volume or juicy matchup that we’d be looking for in order to insert him into lineups.
