- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 11 games
Miami (FL) at Pittsburgh
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Pittsburgh -6
Expected Team Total Points: 25
There’s nothing particularly exciting about Miami from a fantasy perspective this week. They’re going up against a Pittsburgh team that plays at a slow place and has a solid defense that only allows 214.3 pass yards per game. Though QB Brad Kaaya (5,600), is affordably priced, we don’t feel that he has a great deal of upside.
Expected Team Total Points: 31
Analysis: Miami has been carved up by talented running backs this year, and Pittsburgh’s RB Qadree Ollison (5,300) is coming off of back to back big games. He’s having rushed for 152 yards and 111 yards in consecutive games and has contributed a rushing score in each contest. He has taken hold of the Pittsburgh backfield, receiving 54 of the 75 carries allocated to running backs in Pittsburgh’s last two games.
Recommendation: Ollison is one of the better mid-tier plays at running back in this slate. We feel that his expected volume of carries in a nice matchup makes him a great bet to hit value.
Marshall at Western Kentucky
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Western Kentucky -10.5
Expected Team Total Points: 26.5
Analysis: WR Davonte Allen (4,400) was expected to be Marshall’s top receiver coming into this year. Though he got off to a slow start, Allen has really stepped up in the team’s last three contests, amassing 25 catches, 415 yards, and two touchdowns in that time. In that span, Allen has seen 18, 16, and 8 targets – an average of roughly 14 per game.
Recommendation: Davonte Allen has a nice floor, and should have no trouble hitting value at his reasonable price. Allen should be targeted often this week as Marshall looks to keep pace with Western Kentucky’s high octane offense. Allen should be in consideration for both cash and GPP lineups.
Expected Team Total Points: 37
Analysis: Marshall is undoubtedly one of the better defenses that QB Brandon Doughty (7,800) will face this season. The Thundering Herd are only allowing 185.8 pass yards per game, but they haven’t faced any quarterback on par with Doughty. In the two toughest tests that the Marshall defense faced, both Middle Tennessee State’s Brent Stockstill and Southern Miss’s Nick Mullens eclipsed 300 yards through the air. Outside of those two games, Marshall has faced very poor competition at quarterback. Doughty’s numbers have been sub-par in recent weeks due to Western Kentucky facing very poor competition that has allowed the team to build a big lead and ease off the gas relatively early on. Marshall should at the very least keep this game close deep into the second half. Doughty will spread the ball around to his many talented receivers, but the leader amongst them is WR Taywan Taylor (6,000). Taylor is up to 14 receiving touchdowns this year and has scored in all but two games. WR Tyler Higbee (3,900) was a top target of Doughty’s prior to going down with a knee injury in Mid-October. Higbee dressed for the first time since then last week, but did not see the field. His status for this Friday’s game is uncertain, but Coach Brian Brohm stated that they ‘are hopeful he (Higbee) will be back.’
Recommendation: Doughty is one of the best cash game options in this slate, especially considering how much uncertainty surrounds many of the higher priced options at quarterback. Pairing him with Taywan Taylor could result in fireworks, but we feel that that stack is best suited in GPPs – as Taylor does not see nearly as many targets as most teams’ number one receivers. Tyler Higbee would be an under the radar option if he gets cleared to start Friday, as he’d have little issue hitting value at his reduced price if he saw a full complement of snaps.
Navy at Houston
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -1.0
Expected Team Total Points: 31.25
Analysis: Against Houston, QB Keenan Reynolds (7,400) will face what is statistically the best run defense that he will see all season, as the Cougars only allow 114.8 yards per game on the ground – 12th best in the FBS. Against Memphis, the only other top 50 run defense that Navy has faced, Reynolds only ran for 38 yards on 17 carries.
Recommendation: Reynolds has had an amazing career at Navy and could potentially close out his senior season with a Heisman Trophy Presentation invite. His path this week to a huge fantasy game however, is through multiple goal line scores, as a gaudy yardage total likely won’t be there. We feel that he’s best utilized in tournaments.
Expected Team Total Points: 32.25
Analysis: Both QB Greg Ward (7,200) and backup QB Kyle Postma (5,700) are dealing with injuries heading into Friday’s game against Navy. Ward has been dealing with an ankle injury, while Postma has a bruised knee. Houston’s beat writer Joseph Duarte stated in a chat that he held Wednesday that he believes that Ward will start, but that shouldn’t be considered anything more than an educated guess. RB Kenneth Farrow (5,900) is dealing with a foot injury, and though he was scheduled to practice Tuesday, he did not do so. Duarte stated (in the aforementioned chat) that he feels that ‘right now it’s 50-50 on his (Farrow’s) availability. Regardless, Farrow would face a tough matchup against Navy’s defense that is only allowing 130.6 yards per game on the ground.
Recommendation: Greg Ward Jr. has as much upside as any quarterback in this slate, but comes with significant risk. Last week, he warmed up with the starters, but ended up only playing late in the fourth quarter after Kyle Postma left with injury. We’d have to receive very firm confirmation on his status to consider him for cash games. Farrow isn’t a very appealing option even if he is cleared, but his backup, minimum priced RB Javin Webb (3,000) would make for a great punt option if Farrow were to be ruled out.
Western Michigan at Toledo
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Toledo -8
Expected Team Total Points: 26.5
Analysis: The Toledo defense has been stout against the run all season, only allowing two running backs to cross the 100 yard threshold on the ground in the first 10 games they have played. The Rockets have been far more generous against the pass, giving up an average of 262.4 yards per game through the air. QB Zach Terrell (6,900) has thrown for at least 275 yards in each of Western Michigan’s last five games and has an 8:2 touchdown to interception ratio in that span. In WMU’s last two games, both losses, Terrell has averaged 38.5 pass attempts, and the expectation is that he should be forced to throw often again this week in a game that WMU is an eight point underdog. WR Corey Davis (7,000) has reasserted himself as the ‘Alpha’ at receiver for WMU since #MACtion play began. Whereas teammate WR Daniel Braverman (6,300) began the year dominating from a statistical perspective, Davis has reeled off five straight 100 yard receiving games and is averaging 13 targets per game over that period. The main concern for this game is that there is an 80 percent chance of rain at the time of kickoff at The Glass Bowl, and the poor weather is expected to continue throughout the day.
Recommendation: Corey Davis is one of the most bankable receiving options in this slate. He has consistently produced, has a good matchup, and only has to contend with fellow receiver Daniel Braverman for passes, as the two see an incredible 67 percent of the team’s targets. While we still like both Davis, and his quarterback Terrell, to have solid games, the poor weather likely limits their upside, as WMU may try to run the ball more than normal to combat the awful conditions. This factor is enough to have us rank Terrell below similarly priced top tier options.
Expected Team Total Points: 34.5
Analysis: RB Kareem Hunt (7,400) struggled with injuries for much of 2015, but has shown marked improvement since the calendar has flipped to November. Over his last three games, Hunt has averaged roughly 25 carries and 135 yards per game, scoring two touchdowns in each contest. Western Michigan has gotten gashed in each of its last two games, surrendering 236 and 285 yards rushing to Bowling Green and Northern Illinois, respectively.
Recommendation: Kareem Hunt is one of the best running backs to build around in this slate. He should see plenty of carries and the Toledo passing game is potent enough to keep Western Michigan’s defense honest.
Missouri at Arkansas
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 2:30 PM EST
Spread: Arkansas -14
Expected Team Total Points: 16
We don’t feel that there is anyone worth considering on Missouri this week. The Tigers have only scored four offensive touchdowns in their last six games, which is such a sad contrast to the many years of high flying offenses that Gary Pinkel led throughout his storied tenure.
Expected Team Total Points: 30
Whereas last week many of the Arkansas skill players were underpriced in a favorable matchup against Mississippi State, this Friday the pricing is soft yet again, but the matchup is far more daunting. Missouri boasts one of the best defenses in the country, only allowing 300 total yards per game. QB Brandon Allen (6,000) and RB Alex Collins (6,100) are unlikely to perform well enough to justify their prices, but WR Drew Morgan (4,200) consistently sees enough targets that he could hit value. Still, we feel that this game as a whole is one to largely avoid.
Boise State at San Jose State
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Boise State -7.5
Expected Team Total Points: 33
Analysis: Boise State has now lost back to back games and QB Brett Rypien (6,600) looks to have hit the freshman wall. His yardage totals have been fine, but Rypien’s efficiency has waned, as he only completed 47.9 percent of his passes against Air Force. The matchup against San Jose State’s top ranked pass defense isn’t as difficult as it appears on the surface, as the Spartans have largely benefited from facing backup quarterbacks, Option offenses, and run-based attacks. Still, with Rypien struggling, and a matchup with San Jose State’s defense that that is allowing 207.9 rush yards per game, we expect Boise State to center their gameplan around RB Jeremy McNichols (7,900). McNichols has been the picture of consistency this season: scoring at least one touchdown in every game in which he has played, and topping 100 yards rushing in each of Boise State’s last six games. The 40 passes that he’s caught this season also highlights how valuable McNichols is in the passing game. It would be very surprising if McNichols didn’t see at least 20 touches in this game. With the rise of Brett Rypien, WR Thomas Sperbeck (6,500) has ascended to become one of the most consistent receivers in the country. Sperbeck has been targeted relentlessly by Rypien – seeing an incredible 48 balls thrown his way in just the last two games alone. Two weeks ago against New Mexico, Sperbeck was otherworldly, hauling in 20 catches for 281 yards. Even when Boise State mostly struggled last Friday against Air Force, Sperbeck still recorded seven catches for 79 yards and a touchdown.
Recommendation: McNichols is our favorite option at running back in this slate. Our expectation is that Boise State lean on him as they look to snap their two game losing streak. He’s a player to build your lineup around. Thomas Sperbeck has a very high floor most weeks because of the number of targets he sees, but this may be a week to look elsewhere, as he is one of the higher priced receivers in this slate, and faces a stingy pass defense.
San Jose State
Expected Team Total Points: 25.5
Analysis: RB Tyler Ervin (7,700) has given us two of the best fantasy performances of the 2015 season, rushing for 263 yards New Mexico and 300 yards against Fresno State. While Ervin has been productive in other games as well, including a 114 yard performance last week against Hawaii, he has struggled to hit value when facing matchups that aren’t necessarily in his favor. Though Boise State’s defense has given up 523 yards rushing the past two weeks, both of those games were against teams that run ‘The Option.’ Those 523 yards make up 41 percent of the rushing total that the Broncos have allowed all season, highlighting just how stingy the team has been against traditional offenses. QB Kenny Potter (5,700) is coming off of a huge game against Hawaii in which he threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns, and additionally rushed for 49 yards and two more scores. Potter also has solid games this year against Nevada, UNLV, and New Mexico, but has performed ordinarily in tougher tests against BYU and San Diego State – only averaging 130 yards passing in those two games.
Recommendation: Tyler Ervin does not appear to be one of the better values in this slate, and we don’t feel that he’s primed in this matchup for a huge performance. Kenny Potter is very reasonably priced, and if San Jose State is to have success in this game it will likely be due to their quarterback playing well, but Potter’s struggles against stellar defenses have us shying away in cash games. That being said, the combination of Potter’s price, running ability (6 rushing touchdowns), and the likelihood that the Spartans will not be able to lean on Tyler Ervin to heavily in this matchup, have us considering him for tournament lineups.
Iowa at Nebraska
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Iowa -1.5
Expected Team Total Points: 29.75
Analysis: QB C.J. Beathard (5,500) has been solid for Iowa this season, throwing 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions, while also adding six scores with his legs. Though he hasn’t thrown for 300 yards passing in a game in 2015 thus far that may change this weekend against the Nebraska defense that allows 305 yards passing per game. Nebraska has statistically been solid against the run this season, but that’s largely attributable to teams choosing to attack their brutal pass defense. While we do expect Iowa to be able to run the ball in this matchup, both RB Leshun Daniels (5,100) and RB Jordan Canzeri (4,900) are healthy, and are effectively splitting carries.
Recommendation: C.J. Beathard doesn’t have the upside other quarterbacks in this slate that are fortunate enough to play in pass-happy offenses, but the matchup doesn’t get much better than the one he has on tap for Friday. Beathard has topped 20 fantasy points in each of his last three games (against Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue) and is a good bet to do so again this week. We feel that of the cheaper quarterbacks in this slate, Beathard is one of the higher floor options. Both Iowa running backs are more than capable of blowing up for big games, but they’re also likely to cut into each other’s touches, syphoning value from the other.
Expected Team Total Points: 28.25
Analysis: QB Tommy Armstrong (5,100) has played well since returning from a foot injury that forced him to miss a Nebraska loss to Purdue. Since then, Armstrong has thrown for 508 yards and five touchdowns, while additionally running for two more scores, in two games. This game is expected to be close due to its rivalry nature and because Nebraska is playing at home. Iowa’s defense has been very solid overall, but has been particularly stout against the run, only allowing 107.5 rush yards per game this season.
Recommendation: Armstrong looks to be underpriced despite the tough matchup. If, as many are predicting, Nebraska is to keep this game close or pull off the upset, Armstrong will need to play a very large role. He doesn’t need to do much to hit value and we like him as a value play at the QB2 spot. Armstrong’s receivers WR Jordan Westerkamp (4,000) and WR Brandon Reilly (3,300) look to be underpriced as well. Westerkamp is the team’s best receiver but often lines up in the slot. Both should be able to avoid ‘shadow coverage’ from top Iowa cornerback Desmond King, and have a great shot to reach value.
Washington State at Washington
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Washington -7
Expected Team Total Points: 23.25
Analysis: The low Over/Under and spread tells us that Vegas does not expect QB Luke Falk (7,500) to suit up for this game. Falk is suffering from what is very likely a concussion. Given how Coach Mike Leach has handled injuries in the past, we should not expect a firm announcement on Falk’s status prior to kickoff. After Falk was knocked out last week against Colorado, QB Peyton Bender (6,700) came on in relief and completed 13 of 22 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. WR River Cracraft (4,600) was in a walking boot last week and has missed Wazzu’s last two games. With Cracraft sidelined, additional targets have gone to WR Gabe Marks (6,600) and WR Dom Williams (5,800) – each of whom have had big games the past two weeks. Marks, in particular has benefited from Cracraft’s absence seeing 32 targets the last weeks, and hauling in 23 of them for 202 yards and three touchdowns. After Bender came on in relief of Falk last week, Marks saw seven of the 22 pass attempts, hauling in four of them – including one for a 16 yard touchdown.
Recommendation: Falk’s potential absence creates a ton of uncertainty in respect to the Washington State offense. The offensive philosophy would likely remained unchanged, but Washington has a tough defense, and Peyton Bender is significantly less polished than Falk. You aren’t getting much of a discount in price from Falk to Bender, and we see Bender as a GPP play – even if word leaks out that Falk will be out of commission on Friday. Gabe Marks’s value remains mostly unchanged with respect to who starts at quarterback, as he’s likely to lead the team in targets by a significant margin in any scenario, and is a solid cash game option. Dom Williams likely needs to score at least once to justify his price tag, and we feel that he’s best utilized in tournaments.
Expected Team Total Points: 30.25
Analysis: QB Jake Browning (5,800) is coming off of an incredibly efficient performance against Oregon State, completing 18 of 20 passes for 211 yards and four touchdowns. Browning’s freshman season has been very up-and-down, but he’s certainly improved during the second half of the season. The matchup against Washington State however lends itself far better to Washington establishing the running game with Browning’s fellow freshman, RB Myles Gaskin (5,100). Gaskin has rushed for over 100 yards in back to back games and now faces a Washington State defense that has allowed a 100 yard rusher in six of their last seven games. One thing to watch is the status of fellow running back, Dwayne Washington – who has missed each of the past two games. Coach Chris Peterson declined to give much of an update concerning the status of Washington stating on Wednesday that “we’ll know in two days.” Even if Washington were to suit up however, he probably wouldn’t take more than 5-7 touches from Gaskin.
Recommendation: Browning has the ability to have a solid game and hit value, but we are targeting Gaskin from this game. The running back is a great bet to see 20 touches and surpass 100 yards for a third straight game, and is a nice cash game option.
Oregon State at Oregon
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Oregon -34.5
Expected Team Total Points: 17
Analysis: QB Marcus McMaryion (4,100) will get the start at quarterback for the Beavers, but he has been abysmal in limited action this year, and isn’t worth considering even at his dirt cheap price tag. WR Jordan Villamin (3,100) has seen his production fluctuate this year, mostly due to Oregon State’s horrific quarterback play. Still, the 6’5” 231 pound receiver is Oregon State’s best threat on offense. Two weeks ago, Villamin record seven catches, 83 yards and a touchdown against California, and though he only caught one 19 yard pass against Washington in Week 12, he did see six targets.
Recommendation: The Ducks are allowing 310.5 pass yards per game this season, and while we don’t expect McMaryion to be able to take advantage to the point that he puts up respectable statistics, his receiver Villamin should see enough targets to have a solid game. At 3,100, Villamin is one of our favorite punt options at receiver.
Expected Team Total Points: 51.5
Analysis: It’s difficult to foresee a scenario in which Oregon struggles to score in this game. As the 51.5 team total suggests, the Ducks should be able to score at will, and this game will likely be well in hand by halftime. QB Vernon Adams Jr (8,100) and RB Royce Freeman (7,500) both should have plenty of success early, but the question becomes if either will be on the field for much of the second half? WR Darren Carrington (5,700) and WR Bralon Addison (5,200) both have been very productive while Vernon Adams has been on the field. Neither sees a large allotment of targets however, as Carrington has not seen more than nine passes in a game this season, and Addison has only seen double digits targets on two occasions in 2015.
Recommendation: Royce Freeman should be productive as long as he’s in the game, but among similarly priced running backs, we prefer Kareem Hunt and Jeremy McNichols – both of whom should be locked into extensive workloads in closely contested games. Vernon Adams Jr has been on fire of late, but similar caveats apply to him that apply to Freeman. There should be little reason for him to sling the ball all afternoon in this projected blowout. Adams is a fine bet to score 20-25 DK points, but for him to have a truly monstrous game, like he had against USC and California, Oregon State would have to keep pace with the Ducks – which just doesn’t seem very likely.
Baylor at TCU
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: TCU -2
Expected Team Total Points: 38.5
Analysis: QB Chris Johnson (7,000) will be making his first career start this week. He looked capable at throwing the deep ball last week in relief of Jarrett Stidham - who is out for the year - and possesses solid running ability. RB Shock Linwood (6,300) has been described by Coach Art Briles as being ‘very questionable’ for this game. Linwood was able to practice on Wednesday with pads and a helmet on, but should not be considered a sure thing for this week. If we were unable to go, RB Johnny Jefferson (3,800) and RB Devin Chafin (4,400) would split carries. Jefferson would likely see most of his action in between 20’s with Chafin operating as a red zone back, and additionally seeing entire series to himself. WR Corey Coleman (7,000) has seen his numbers regress since Seth Russell was lost for the year with a neck injury. Coleman hasn’t scored in either of Baylor’s last two games after scoring 20 times in the team’s first 10 games. Coleman’s fellow WR KD Cannon (5,600) has blown up the last three weeks, securing 14 catches for 395 yards and three touchdowns. Cannon’s best trait is his game breaking speed that he utilizes tracking deep balls, but he’s seen additional targets this year on screen passes that have allowed him to establish a higher floor as a fantasy player.
Recommendation: Baylor will most likely approach this game with a run-heavy approach given Chris Johnson’s inexperience and the terrible weather forecast on tap for Friday night. Still, Johnson’s arm talent, running ability, and the fact that he’s running one of the most explosive offensive systems, makes him a high-upside tournament option. If Shock Linwood sits, both Johnny Jefferson and Devin Chafin are on the radar as quality options. Jefferson would likely push for 20 touches and would be considered one of the best values at running back in this slate. Chafin’s role would expand slightly, and he would likely still rely largely on goal line touches to hit value. We feel that without Linwood, there would be enough touches to go around for both running backs to hit value. Corey Coleman isn’t a great option considering his exorbitant price and recent drop in production, but even with a third string quarterback at the helm, KD Cannon is a great GPP play, as he only needs a few well thrown deep balls to turn in a big performance.
Expected Team Total Points: 40.5
Analysis: One of the prominent elements of this game is the likelihood that it will be played in very bad weather. Forecasts are currently calling for cold, heavy rain. Signs seem to be pointing to QB Trevone Boykin (7,700) suiting up and starting against Baylor. Coach Gary Patterson stated that Boykin has been improving and has been ‘fun to watch’ at practice this week. Regardless of whether or not Boykin starts, TCU will likely look to rely heavily on RB Aaron Green (6,200) for another week. The last three weeks Green has seen 24, 30, and 24 carries. With superstar receiver Josh Doctson already ruled out for the season, Green is the team’s best weapon outside of Boykin. With Baylor now on its third string quarterback, concern of the Bears turning this game into a blowout and forcing TCU to abandon the run has been relatively mitigated. The bigger concern for Green is the health of the offensive line. Two weeks ago against Kansas, TCU finished with four backups playing on the Offensive Line, and Center Joey Hunt was the only starter still on the field. Prior to the Oklahoma game, Hunt was injured in practice and was ruled out for the remainder of the regular season. WR Kavontae Turpin (5,000) and WR Kolby Listenbee (5,300) are both home run threats each time they touch the ball, but neither sees very many targets. Turpin only caught one pass last week against Oklahoma, though it was an 80 yard touchdown, and 81 of Listenbee’s 98 receiving yards against the Sooners came on TCU’s second possession of the game. WR Emanuel Porter (3,200) caught an impressive touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter against Oklahoma. The touchdown was a jump ball to the right sideline – very reminiscent of the countless similar grabs that Josh Doctson has pulled in this year. Porter missed much of the 2015 season due to injury and his 2 catch, 23 yard performance against Oklahoma was his first appearance in the box score since week four, but he should see a bigger role, especially with TCU searching for someone to step up in Doctson’s offense, and the 6’4” 210 pound Porter should be given ample opportunity to do just that.
Recommendation: There’s no telling for certain if Trevone Boykin starts at quarterback for TCU, but if there’s confirmation that he will get the nod, then Boykin instantly becomes one of the quarterbacks with the most upside in this slate, and would vault to the top of our tournament rankings at quarterback. Last Saturday, we got word of his status early in the day, so let’s hope that that’s the case this Friday as well. How effective Aaron Green is may largely be determined by how well TCU’s banged up offensive line is able to block for him, but the projected heavy rain makes it likely that TCU will feature him heavily throughout the contest. Green is a solid option and has a great shot to hit value. Emanuel Porter is very much a high upside, low floor player that could hit 8x value or barely make an impact in the box score. But at 3,200, he’s a cheap way to get exposure to this game.
Tulsa at Tulane
Kickoff: 11-27-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Tulsa -6
Expected Team Total Points: 35.25
Analysis: QB Dane Evans (7,000) has seen his usage and productivity fluctuate largely based upon game flow in recent weeks. In Tulsa’s last two games, both losses, Evans threw the ball on 54 percent of the team’s offensive plays, whereas in the prior two games, both losses, Evans only threw on 30 percent of Tulsa’s offensive snaps. WR Keyarris Garrett (6,200) has been inconsistent in recent weeks after getting off to a great start to the season, but like Evans, has had solid efforts the last two weeks after struggling to produce the prior two games.
Recommendation: We’re expecting Tulsa to attack Tulane with a ground-heavy approach this week. The Green Wave possess very little threat to actually win this game, as they struggle mightily to score, and Tulsa should be playing from ahead throughout. Because of this, we’re not considering Evans or Garrett to be top options in this slate. Unfortunately, both Tulsa running backs, RB Zach Langer (5,000) and D’Angelo Brewer (4,800) are not very exciting options and will likely split carries fairly evenly.
Expected Team Total Points: 29.25
Even going up against a very soft Tulsa defense, there is very little to like about Tulane, from a fantasy perspective. The Green Wave use multiple running backs and spread the limited targets that are allocated to receivers around to a bevy of options. The most consistent presence in this offense is RB Dontrell Hilliard (4,100). Even in a dream matchup last week though against SMU, Hilliard only received 12 touches, but was able to turn them into 111 total yards of offense and 13.1 fantasy points. The matchup this week against Tulsa is similar in that the Golden Hurricane struggle to stop the run, but the fact that he’s only seen 15 touches on two occasions in 2015 makes Hilliard a risky option at best.