Thursday Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-5-15, 7:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 6 games
Buffalo at Kent State
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Buffalo -2.5
O/U: 46.5
Buffalo
Expected Team Total Points: 24.5
RB Jordan Johnson – 6,700 RB Anthone Taylor – 6,200
Analysis: Jordan Johnson has been serving as the lead back for Buffalo the past two weeks with Anthone Taylor recovering from a leg injury, and has performed admirably in that role, topping 100 yards in both games. Taylor was able to return last week, but only accounted for 29 yards on 10 carries spelling Johnson. Whereas last week Taylor wasn’t even listed on the depth chart, as his availability was unclear, he is listed as the number two running back heading into a battle with Kent State’s defense that is only allowing 118 yards per game on the ground.
Recommendation: We’re considering Jordan Johnson a GPP option this week. Our expectation is that Anthone Taylor will continue to be worked more back into the gameplan, cutting into Johnson’s role, and if that is the case then it will be difficult for Johnson to hit value at his price tag of 6,700. Taylor is off limits all together at 6,200.
Kent State
Expected Team Total Points: 22
We’re not seeing any options on Kent State that warrant serious consideration. The Golden Flashes come in at 123rd in the FBS, only averaging 298 yards per game, and put up a paltry 15.8 points per contest.
Ball State at Western Michigan
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Western Michigan -14.5
O/U: 62.5
Ball State
Expected Team Total Points: 24
QB Riley Neal – 5,700
Analysis: Neal has been steadily improving throughout his freshman season. Though he failed to complete 25 or more passes in any of his first four games, he’s hit that mark in three of the team’s most recent four, with the lone exception coming in a game last week against Massachusetts that was surprisingly low scoring. It is Neal’s usage though that is really appealing. He’s averaged 49.25 combined passes and rushes over Ball State’s last four games and he should be asked once again to shoulder a large burden this week, as Ball State will likely have to throw often to try and keep pace with Western Michigan.
Recommendation: There is certainly risk associated with taking a freshman quarterback on the road who plays for a bad team. However, the combination of Neal’s relatively modest price of 5,700, and the team’s willingness to put the game in his hands has us willing to use him as a way of accessing more expensive running backs and receivers in this slate.
WR Kevonn Mabon – 4,500 WR Jordan Williams – 5,800 WR Chris Shillings – 3,200
Analysis: Mabon is coming off of a big game last week against Massachusetts in which he hauled in six catches for 150 yards. Though he battled a knee injury in mid-October, this positive effort seems to indicate that it’s in the rear view mirror. Excluding a week two battle with Texas A&M, Mabon has seen at least seven targets in every game this season and has caught at least four passes in all but two games. Overall, he is fifth in the MAC in targets this season, seeing 9.6 per game. Jordan Williams is the clear top option in the Ball State passing game. He’s caught at least six passes in each of Ball State’s last six games and also serves as the team’s top touchdown making receiver, leading the team with six scores through the air. Additionally, he leads the MAC in targets, with 110 of the year. Chris Shillings should step into a bigger role this week, with Ball State’s usual third receiving option, Corey Lacanaria, being suspended. Lacanaria was averaging seven targets per game, and Shillings should see a similar allocation this week.
Recommendation: Ball State will need to throw often in this contest, as they’ll surely be playing from behind. Though Mabon isn’t a red zone option, he should be able to hit value at the price of 4,500. We’re not expecting a huge effort, but Mabon is a quality back-end receiver. Williams is one of the pricier receivers in this slate, but should have little trouble hitting value as he’s going to be targeted often. We view Shillings as a great way of working in more expensive options in this slate, as he’s priced super affordably at only 3,200. Though we like all three of these options, and they could all hit value as Ball State will likely throw 40+ times on Thursday, pairing no more than two is in your best interest, as you’ll want to minimize risk in constructing your cash game lineups.
Western Michigan
Expected Team Total Points: 38.5
QB Zach Terrell – 7,800
Analysis: Terrell has been one of the more consistent quarterbacks in the country this season. Prior to last week, he had thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game in 2015, and the goose egg last Thursday against Eastern Michigan was made up for by 72 rushing yards and a touchdown. The Eastern Michigan outing was also highlighted by Terrell’s receivers getting taken down multiple times inside the five yard line, and Western Michigan choosing to take advantage of EMU’s FBS worst rushing defense to the tune of six rushing touchdowns. This week expect the gameplan to be more skewed toward the aerial attack against Ball State’s defense that is allowing 293.7 passing yards per game.
Recommendation: Terrell’s soft matchup, quality weapons, and week to week consistency make him a nice cash game option.
WR Daniel Braverman – 7,700 WR Corey Davis – 6,200
Analysis: Despite a disappointing effort last week against Eastern Michigan, Daniel Braverman is still second in the country in catches, with 80 to his credit. Corey Davis eclipsed the 100 yard mark for a second straight week in the game against Eastern Michigan and looks to be rounding into form following a disappointing beginning to the season. We consider Davis and Braverman to be very similarly talented. Both see over 30 percent of Western Michigan’s targets – an unheard of rate for teammates. Braverman tends to see more targets close to the line of scrimmage, while Davis sees more deep balls – which is the main reason for the sizable difference in catches between the two. Don’t be too concerned about the lack of touchdowns in recent weeks for Davis, as he was twice hauled down inside the Eastern Michigan five yard line last week.
Recommendation: The sizable price difference between Davis and Braverman makes Davis the easy call here. Davis is still pricey, but we like his chances of eclipsing 100 yards for a third straight game.
Arkansas State at Appalachian State
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Appalachian State -10.5
O/U: 62
Arkansas State
Expected Team Total Points: 25.75
Fredi Knighten spreads the ball around too much in his limited pass attempts to bank on any Arkansas State’s receivers. Arkansas State also utilizes a trio of running backs, none of which averages more than 13 carries per game. The most explosive option of the three is 5’5” freshman Warren Wand. He’s averaging 7.3 yards per carry and is an interesting tournament option at only 4,100. The Appalachian State defense is allowing only 122.8 rushing yards per game though, so none of the Arkansas State running backs are on the table in cash games.
Appalachian State
Expected Team Total Points: 36.25
RB Marcus Cox – 6,800
Analysis: Cox has been an absolute rock for Appalachian State this year, running for at least 75 yards in every game, and only failing to eclipse 100 yards in two outings. He’s really stepped up his usage since conference play began four games ago, averaging 23 carries and 107 yards in that span. Even if the matchup isn’t perfect, as Arkansas State is only allowing 150.9 rush yards per game, Cox should find success in a game that Appalachian State should be playing from ahead. He should at minimum bulk-carry his way over the 100 yard threshold and has a good chance to score against a defense that has allowed 15 rushing touchdowns in their eight games to date.
Recommendation: In a slate that features plenty of both unproductive and committee backfields, Cox is one of the more bankable options. His price will force you to make sacrifices elsewhere, but he should be counted on to hit value.
Baylor at Kansas State
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -17.5
O/U: 69.5
Baylor
Expected Team Total Points: 43.5
QB Jarrett Stidham – 8,500
Analysis: True freshman Jarrett Stidham will be taking over the quarterback position for Baylor, with Seth Russell being lost for the season due to a neck injury. Stidham was rated as one of the top quarterback recruits in the 2015 class, and brings a cannon arm and solid wheels. He has amazingly seen playing time in every single game this season in relief of Russell, as a result of Baylor having their first seven games well in hand prior to the final whistle. Most of that action has been just running out the clock, but his stats are still impressive: completing 24 of 28 passes for 331 yards and six touchdowns. This matchup appears similar to the one UCLA’s Josh Rosen encountered in his first career start against Virginia. Yes, there appeared to be risk, but Rosen proved how special of a talent he is in his debut, throwing for 350 yards and three scores. We’re expecting Stidham to rise to the occasion as well.
Recommendation: Normally we wouldn’t recommend a true freshman making his first career start, but Stidham is an exception. We’re not expecting Baylor to ease Stidham in, and on the contrary, Baylor should be throwing more often than usual, as Kansas State has been particularly stout against the run this year, allowing only 147.4 rush yards per game. In recent weeks, Kansas State’s defense has allowed big games to Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, and Trevone Boykin – and now it’s Stidham’s turn.
WR Corey Coleman – 8,600 WR KD Cannon 5,200 WR Jay Lee – 5,800
Analysis: In 2015, Coleman has been in a tier of receiver that is essentially comprised of just himself and TCU’s Josh Doctson. He leads the FBS in touchdown receptions, despite Baylor already having two byes in the season’s first nine weeks. KD Cannon has gotten off to a relatively slow start this season, only scoring two touchdowns on 22 catches, despite profiling mostly as a deep threat last year as a freshman. The good news is that Cannon has seen a whopping 25 targets in Baylor’s last two games, many of which have come on quick screens, giving him a path to easy catches. Jay Lee has seen his role in the offense go the opposite route of Cannon’s. After 22 targets and 12 catches in Baylor’s first two games, Lee has only caught a total of 10 passes in the last five games.
Recommendation: K.D. Cannon is the best value of the bunch and his recent increased usage gives him a higher floor than he had earlier in his career. As an added bonus, if you’re into the whole superstition thing, tomorrow is Cannon’s birthday. Lee is strictly a GPP play, as a player that has broken numerous long touchdowns this season, but simply hasn't seen a reliable target allocation. Coleman is the clear top receiver on the board, but taking him will require significant risks at other roster spots. We’ve yet to see if Jarrett Stidham will force feed Coleman the same way that Seth Russell did this season, and because of this feel that Coleman is best utilized in tournaments this week.
Kansas State
Expected Team Total Points: 26
The Kansas State offense has looked horrid in recent weeks. Since losing a heartbreaker against TCU, the Wildcats have only amassed 9 points in total against Oklahoma and Texas. This general ineptitude has us struggling to place much faith in any player on this roster. Running back Charles Jones looked to be emerging in the team’s last game, against Texas, rushing for 122 yards on 18 carries, but it’s difficult to have faith in that momentum carrying over against Baylor – especially with Kansas State likely to fall behind quickly this Thursday. Jones’s cheap price of 4,100, makes him an interesting gamble, as the Wildcats will undoubtedly want to establish a slow, run-based offense in order to keep the ball away from Baylor, it’s just difficult to foresee this strategy having a strong chance of success.
Mississippi State at Missouri
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 9:00 PM EST
Spread: Mississippi State -7.5
O/U: 42
Mississippi State
Expected Team Total Points: 24.25
QB Dak Prescott – 8,700
Analysis: Prescott is coming off of one of the most statistically impressive performances of 2015 against Kentucky, throwing for 348 yards and 3 touchdowns, while running for 117 yards and another three scores. He faces an extremely tough test this week in a stingy Missouri pass defense that is only allowing 161.6 yards per game and has yet to allow any opponent to throw for more than 300 yards in a game.
Recommendation: Prescott’s price is perfectly reasonable considering his upside most weeks, but this game is likely to be a low scoring, slow-paced affair. The last time he faced a difficult defense, Prescott struggled mightily against LSU, and only managed to salvage his day by conducting two late fourth quarter touchdown drives. We feel that Prescott is best utilized as a tournament option this week, as his running ability always gives him the chance to have big games, even in tough matchups like this one.
Missouri
Expected Team Total Points: 17.25
The Missouri offense has largely been a disaster the past month. Now that Maty Mauk has been suspended for the remainder of 2015, we know that we can expect the same dismally performance going forward. To put the state of affairs in Columbia in perspective: Missouri has not scored a touchdown in its last three games.
Nevada at Fresno State
Kickoff: 11-5-15, 10:30 PM EST
Spread: Nevada -4.5
O/U: 55.5
Nevada
Expected Team Total Points: 30
RB James Butler – 5,800 RB Don Jackson 5,400
Analysis: The Nevada running back duo has one of the most favorable matchups in this slate, facing a Fresno State run defense allowing 239.1 yards per game on the ground. Nevada is also one of the more run-heavy teams in the FBS, averaging 42.5 rush attempts per game. The timeshare that Jackson and Butler engage in is one in which the two generally alternate drives, with Jackson opening as starter. Butler has performed better of late, rushing for over 100 yards in four of the team’s last six games.
Recommendation: On two occasions this year, both Butler and Jackson have run for over 100 yards in the same game, and there’s a decent chance we see that happened for a third time this Thursday. Considering the pricing, and nature of the carry allocation at Nevada, stacking both is an intriguing GPP strategy. We feel that it’s worth paying the additional $400 to get Butler if you are looking to play just one.
Fresno State
Expected Team Total Points: 25.5
RB Marteze Waller – 4,800
Analysis: Waller has been one Fresno State’s lone bright spots this season – even if he hasn’t been shining quite as bright as fans might have hoped. Coming off of a 2014 season in which he averaged almost 100 rushing yards per game, Waller is only churning out 81 yards on average in 2015. This has largely been due to Fresno State having to abandon the run as they’ve fallen far behind in so many contests. Additionally, the fact that the team is on its fourth quarterback probably doesn’t have opponents respecting the passing game. Waller has shown well of late though, averaging 19 carries and 87 yards over Fresno State’s last three games – and he has scored four touchdowns in that span. Nevada has losses this season against Wyoming and UNLV – both of which are bad teams that lean heavily on the running game. The Wolfpack allowed an average of 219.5 yards in those two games.
Recommendation: We feel that this game should remain close into the second half, allowing Fresno State to get Waller plenty of carries. He should make a push to cross the 100 yard barrier and has a good chance to score for a fourth straight game. At his price of 4,800, he’s a nice cash game play.
Friday Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-6-15, 8:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 3 games
Rice at UTEP
Kickoff: 11-6-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Rice -6.5
O/U: 60
Rice
Expected Team Total Points: 33.25
QB Driphus Jackson – 6,500 WR Dennis Parks – 5,500
Rice has been very inconsistent as a team this season, looking very good in recent games against Army and Florida Atlantic, while falling flat against the four more challenging opponents on their schedule (Louisiana Tech, Baylor, Texas, and Western Kentucky). This trend would suggest that Rice could be primed for a nice game against UTEP this week, as the Miners have struggled mightily this season. UTEP has been particularly bad against the pass this season, allowing 299 yards per game. The trend of Rice’s play and solid matchup have us liking a stack of Rice’s quarterback, Driphus Jackson, and top receiver, Dennis Parks in tournaments this week, however neither has been consistent enough for us to recommend them in cash games.
UTEP
Expected Team Total Points: 26.75
RB LaQuintus Dowell – 4,800
It’s interesting that the team total has been set for UTEP at 26.75 points, as the Miners have only exceeded 27 points once in 2015. This team total likely has more to do with Rice’s defense giving up 37.5 points and 447 yards per game on the season. The only player we’re seeing as potentially worth a GPP play is running back LaQuintus Dowell, who is leading the team in rushing despite beginning 2015 as a defensive back. He has 32 carries the past two weeks, and if this game stays close could hit at value.
Temple at SMU
Kickoff: 11-6-15, 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Temple -12.5
O/U: 54.5
Temple
Expected Team Total Points: 33.5
QB P.J. Walker – 6,700
Analysis: This week, Walker faces one of the worst defenses in the FBS in SMU that is allowing 43.6 points 524 yards per game. Walker’s numbers haven’t been eye-popping in 2015, as Temple largely relies on its rushing attack that is spearheaded by Jahad Thomas. Thomas, however, is potentially either going to miss, or be limited in, this week’s game, as he’s struggling with a rib injury. SMU has proven all season that while they have trouble stringing together four quality quarters, they can put up points, and at least force opponents to play their starters deep into games.
Recommendation: It would be very surprising if Temple scored less than 30 points in this game, and we expect Walker to be heavily involved, if only because of the limited availability of Thomas. We like Walker as a cash game play in this soft matchup.
RB Jahad Thomas – 9,000 RB Ryquell Armstead – 3,700
Analysis: Jahad Thomas has had a fantastic year so far as Temple’s workhorse running back, but it appears that the heavy workload might final be catching up to him, as he is banged up with a rib injury. It’s unclear if he suits up for this week’s game, as he’s considered questionable, and in what has the potential to be a blowout, It’s very possible that Thomas won’t see a full workload. Behind Thomas is true freshman Ryquell Armstead, who has rushed for 128 yards and two touchdowns on 34 carries. Armstead’s limited role has largely been a result of Thomas accounting for 79 percent of Temple’s rushing yards, but besides these two, no other Temple running back has more than 18 carries on the season.
Recommendation: We don’t consider Thomas a viable cash game play, due to his expensive price tag and question marks surrounding his status. Armstead is someone we are liking as one of the better punt options in this slate. If Thomas sits, he’s an automatic play, but even if Thomas does see action, Armstead should see more run than usual, either as a result of the game turning into a blowout or Thomas being limited to less than his usual role.
WR Robby Anderson – 5,300
Analysis: Anderson’s role on a week to week basis has been inconsistent as he’s worked his way back into game shape following sitting out all of 2014. Despite that, he still leads the Owls in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns.
Recommendation: In a slate largely devoid of quality receivers, Anderson stands out as one of the safer options. We feel confident plugging him into cash game lineups at his reasonable price tag. We also like Temple’s second leading receiver Ventrell Bryant (4,100) as a back-end option, though he was mentioned as being banged up in a press conference earlier this week.
SMU
Expected Team Total Points: 21
QB Matt Davis – 7,200
Analysis: Davis has shown flashes of brilliance this season, but between struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness in multiple games, it has a very inconsistent 2015 campaign for Davis. Just this past week against Tulsa, Davis led SMU to two first quarter touchdown drives, hurt his hand, returned, and played poorly for two quarters before finishing the game with a strong fourth quarter. Though Temple’s defense has bene very strong this season, they did give up a huge game last week against duel threat quarterback Deshone Kizer, who threw for 299 yards while running for 143 more yards, against the Owls.
Recommendation: Though Davis could easily blow up for a huge game, we feel that he’s best used in tournaments this week, going up against what is undoubtedly the best defense he will see all season.
WR Courtland Sutton – 5,900
Analysis: Sutton is coming off of a huge game against Tulsa in which he caught eight passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns. He will find a much tougher this week against Temple’s defense that is only allowing 226.3 yards per game through the air. Twice though, Temple has given up big games to taller receivers, like the 6’4” Sutton, as Cincinnati’s McKale McKay (6’5”) and Massachusetts’ Tajae Sharpe (6’3”) each topped 100 yards against the Owls.
Recommendation: Sutton should see plenty of targets this week as SMU looks to keep pace with Temple. We’re not necessarily expecting a big game, but if you are not slotting in one of the two expensive running backs in this slate, you should have little concern over allocating the 5,900 required to fit in Sutton.
BYU at San Jose State
Kickoff: 11-6-15, 11:30 PM EST
Spread: BYU -12.5
O/U: 56.5
BYU
Expected Team Total Points: 35.5
QB Tanner Mangum – 7,100
Analysis: Mangum has been on fire of late, throwing for at least two touchdowns in each of BYU’s last four games. He was nursing a hamstring injury a couple of weeks ago, but reports have him close to 100 percent coming out of BYU’s bye week. On paper he faces an incredibly difficult matchup, going up against a San Jose State defense that is allowing an FBS best 122.1 pass yards per game. Examining that number more closely however, we see that the Spartans have faced two option teams (Air Force and New Mexico), three incredibly run heavy teams (Oregon State, San Diego State, and Auburn), and two teams that started back-up quarterbacks (Fresno State and UNLV.)
Recommendation: Call us unimpressed by the gaudy surface numbers that the San Jose State defense has put up so far this year. We feel that Mangum has a very solid floor and could push for his fourth 300 yard passing game of the year. In a slate with so much uncertainty and unproductivity, we like Mangum in cash games.
RB Algernon Brown – 6,200
Analysis: Though as a result of turnover and injury, BYU’s running back situation has been in flux for much of the year. However, over the last four games, Algernon Brown has established himself as BYU’s top option in the backfield. He’s run for over 80 yards in each of those four games and has seven touchdowns in that span. Fortunately for Brown and BYU, the San Jose State defense has been one of the worst in the country against the run, allowing 225.4 yards per game.
Recommendation: Brown has perhaps the best matchup of any running back in this slate. There is some concern that Adam Hine, who started in weeks two and three for BYU, could return this week, but at the moment it is looking unlikely that Hine actually suits up. We’ve got Brown locked in for cash games in this tasty matchup.
WR Mitch Matthews – 5,400
Analysis: Matthews is BYU’s top target in the red zone, leading the team with eight receiving touchdowns. He also leads BYU in catches and receiving yards, and has to be considered the most reliable option in an offense that has a propensity to spread the ball around.
Recommendation: Despite Matthews’ somewhat pedestrian numbers, he is one of the top options in a slate devoid of quality options at wide receiver. He should be in your cash game lineups.
San Jose State
Expected Team Total Points: 21.5
RB Tyler Ervin – 9,100
Analysis: To say Ervin has been a workhorse for San Jose State would be an understatement. He’s had games in which he’s carried the ball both 36 and 42 times this season, rushing for 263 and 300 yards in those games respectively. In tougher matchups though, against San Diego State, Auburn, and Oregon State, Ervin has only averaged 92 yards per game. The theme, unsurprisingly, of Ervin’s season seems to be that when San Jose State is involved in a tight game, Ervin is in line for a huge day. We question if San Jose State will be in a position to feed Ervin, as the Spartans are 12.5 point underdogs.
Recommendation: Ervin’s expensive price tag is manageable considering the nature of this slate, but we still question whether he will come anywhere hitting value in this game. The more likely outcome is that Ervin has a decent day, approaching 100 yards with a touchdown, but San Jose State has to pass more than they would like in an effort to keep up with BYU’s high scoring offense.