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Below is our game-by-game look at who the top plays are for each teams, as well as some potential players you may want to fade as they maybe over-owned.
Charlotte at Georgia State
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia State -8
O/U: 73.5
Georgia State
Team Expected Points: 40.75
QB – Nick Arbuckle
Analysis:
Consistency was a factor in 2014 for Nick Arbuckle. Four times throughout the 2014 campaign he threw for 350+ yards with five games of 3+ touchdown passes. However, he also had four games fewer than 200 yards passing along with four games without a touchdown pass. Charlotte has one of the worst defenses in FBS, as this will be their first year moving up as they previously have been a FCS school. There won’t be a better matchup on paper for Arbuckle this year, and we fully expect him to start the season with a great performance.
Recommendation: At his price, and with the game expected to be a shootout, Nick Arbuckle is a great play across the board. There is a little risk due to the inconsistency of 2014; however most of the inconsistent games were in games that were lopsided outcomes. This game is expected to be a high scoring close shootout between two of the worst FBS teams.
WR- Robert Davis- $4,900
Analysis: With Donovan Harden out for 6-8 weeks and Lynquez Blair’s departure, this opens up 112 receptions from last year to be distributed throughout the team. The biggest beneficiary has to be Robert Davis, who was Georgia State’s #2 wide receiver last year. If there was a knock on Davis, it’s that he only scored 2 touchdowns last year, which with the departures of Blair and the injury to Harden we expect this to change. Davis has great size at 6’3 200lbs, and should step into a role that allows for an increase in volume at the goal line.
Recommendation: Robert Davis makes for a good GPP or flex play as there is some risk, but overall he is in a great spot to see an increase in volume which should easily allow him to reach value.
WR- Nyiakki Height- $4,000
Analysis: Nyiakki transferred from UAB, where he did not play a prominent role in the 2014 season. Overall he is someone that is a beneficiary of the Donovan Harden injury, but outside of that, we it is difficult to project his role in the offense. This play is incredibly risky as Georgia State has enough wide receivers to have a rotation, but if he is a guy who is going to see the bulk share of snaps at the number two position, he makes for a great value.
Recommendation: Nyiakki is a GPP only play, as we don’t know his role in the offense other than he is Georgia State’s number two wide receiver until Donovan Harden returns. While that alone should give him the volume needed to reach value, it is not recommended to play
Charlotte
Team Expected Points: 32.75
QB – Matt Johnson- 7,900
Analysis: Matt Johnson is an intriguing player heading into the 2015 season. While he was injured towards the end of the 2014 campaign, he is a dual threat quarterback that makes for a potential great play. The issue with Matt is how his game is going to translate now that the Charlotte 49ers are taking the step up to the FBS. Thankfully, he starts his 2015 season with going against a Georgia State team that went 1-11 last year.
Recommendation: Matt Johnson comes into the season as someone to take a wait and see approach with. He has some intrigue due to his running ability, but there are better safer plays throughout the slate.
RB – Kaliff Phillips- 7,400
Analysis: Kaliff Phillips is a running back that you’re going to want to consider whenever he is in a good matchup. He ended his 2014 season with five straight 150+ yard games, and we fully expect that he should have a huge performance in this game versus a poor Georgia State team.
Recommendation: Kaliff is the number one running back on this slate, and is recommended to be in all of your lineups.
WR- Austin Duke- 7,600
Analysis: Austin Duke and Matt Johnson are one of those WR QB tandems that just seem to be the only two on the field at times. Prior to Matt Johnson’s injury, Austin Duke had six consecutive games of 100+ yards with nine touchdowns in those six games. He is someone that is heavily targeted and is a critical part of this Charlotte offense.
Recommendation: If you can fit him in, Duke is a great play as this game is going to be a high scoring affair between these two teams. Targeting a wide receiver that is going to receive a high percentage of targets is always the goal.
SMU at Baylor
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -36
O/U: 73
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 54.5
QB – Seth Russell- $10,500
Analysis:
Not going to put too much thought into this one. On a two quarterback short slate, put Seth Russell in your lineup and move on. He’s one of the top quarterbacks in the nation, and with this being his first game as the starter, they should keep him in the game longer than they otherwise would in a blowout.
Recommendation: Must start
WR – Corey Coleman- $8,700
Analysis:
Corey Coleman was one of the most frustrating DFS players in 2014. While his end of the season numbers looked great, he was incredibly inconsistent with only 5 games over 100 yards. He should take on a much larger role in this offense as Antwan Goodley has moved onto the NFL. While SMU’s defense is extremely poor, this could lead to an opportunity to develop some of the other receivers on this Baylor team as the game should get out of hand rather quickly.
Recommendation: He is expensive, he always has the potential to have a monster game so in a GPP you have to consider him, but in a cash game we recommend spending elsewhere.
WR – KD Cannon- $7,300
Analysis:
KD Cannon came onto the scene early in 2014 when he had a few unbelievable games in a few early blowouts. He also ended the season with an unbelievable game against Michigan State. Cannon has established himself as one of college football’s elite deep threats, and could break a few versus SMU in what should not be a competitive game. There is a little bit of caution here as the number one and two wide receivers for Baylor have a history of underperforming in these blowout type games, as the goal is largely to keep everyone healthy.
Recommendation: He is expensive, he always has the potential to have a monster game so in a GPP you have to consider him, but in a cash game we recommend spending elsewhere.
WR – Jay Lee- $4,600
Analysis:
Jay Lee is the lone Senior of the wide receiving starters. He has a history of performing well in these early season blowout games. The number three and number four wide receivers from Baylor historically are the players that you should target and Jay Lee has a history of performing in these early season games, as he averaged 98 yards in the first three games of the season last year.
Recommendation: He is probably the most recommended for cash games, as his price is so much lower than Cannon, and is likely the guy who will see the most snaps of any wide receiver.
WR – Lynx Hawthorne- $3,800
Analysis:
Lynx is a guy even most DFS players haven’t heard of as he really hasn’t done much to date. He will be playing the slot role for Baylor this upcoming season, and is an incredibly shifty guy who if you get him the ball in space can make it very difficult to tackle.
Recommendation: Lynx makes for an under the radar GPP play who if he hits could win you a very large tournament.
RB- Shock Linwood- $7,800
Analysis:
Shock Linwood is one of the more consistent running backs in the country. He scored a touchdown in 11/13 games last year. He isn’t incredibly skilled or talented, but typically sees enough volume to get to 90 yards per game. The challenge is in these games where it will be a blowout situation. It is likely that he will not get the full workload, which is an issue, as he isn’t the type of running back that can get to 120 yards on 12 carries, he needs an established workload to do that and I’m not sure he gets it here.
Recommendation: The problem isn’t Shock, the problem is the price you have to pay for Shock. In a blowout situation where he won’t get a full workload it is difficult to pay the price for him in this game.
SMU
Team Expected Points: 18.5
There are a number of high powered offenses in this slate. We don’t recommend using anyone in what is going to be a blowout.
Kent State at Illnios
Kickoff: 9:00 PM EST
Spread: Illinois -14.5
O/U: 52
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 33.25
WR- Geronimo Allison- $5,600
Analysis: Geronimo Allison is poised for a breakout season this upcoming season. When Mike Dudek tore his ACL earlier this spring, Allison’s outlook immediately skyrocketed. He is a huge receiver at 6’4’’ and should have his way against this bad Kent State team. Justin Hardee recently broke his foot, which only increases Geronimo’s value as he is the only wide receiver on the team with significant playing time from last year.
Recommendation: He is a great play at his price, should easily exceed the value.
QB- Wes Lunt- $7,800
Analysis: Wes Lunt has all the tools you could want in a quarterback, he’s a big kid at 6’5’’ 225 lbs and has a great arm. The problem with him is he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. While Kent State does have a good defense as they play a slow tempo game, we still expect Lunt to be in consideration for a QB2, and makes for a good stack with Allison.
Recommendation: Wes Lunt could be an under the radar GPP play, as with all the injuries and slow tempo ownership may be lower than it otherwise would be. He has great skills and Illinois could put up some points on Kent State.
RB- Josh Ferguson- $6,200
Analysis: Josh Ferguson is PPR gold. He has had 50 catches in each of the last two seasons, and with Mike Dudek and Justin Hardee out for the Illini, we firmly believe his role in the passing game will increase this season. Kent State rush defense is poor allowing 214 yards per game last year, and we fully expect Ferguson to run all over the Golden Flashes.
Recommendation: Ferguson is one of the top running backs on the slate, as his usage rate will be great in this game. He is a great play in both GPP and cash game formats.
Kent State
QB- Colin Reardon- $5,500
Analysis: Let us preface this by saying Colin Reardon is not a great football player. However, Illinois’ defense is equally as poor, so this one is a little bit of a punt play in that you’re going to hope for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns, but at his current price, he has to be mentioned.
Recommendation: This is the most risky play of the day in our opinion, if you are confident in some of the other players and want to punt at your QB2 then this would be the recommended punt play.
Michigan State at Western Michigan
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -17.5
O/U: 57
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 37.5
QB – Connor Cook $9,300
Analysis: Connor Cook is one of the top college quarterbacks this season. However, he is getting more excitement as an NFL prospect than he is in the daily game. During the regular season last year, he only had three games over 300 yards passing, and with him not being a running quarterback, it makes it very difficult for him to make value at his current salary. The matchup is not bad but not great as Western Michigan allowed 230 yards passing last season which is right in the middle of the pack.
Recommendation: It is going to be very difficult to get both him and Russell into a lineup, and Russell has a much better matchup than Cook, we recommend avoiding Cook as the upside is just not there to justify the price tag.
RB – All of them
Analysis: For the first time in several years, Michigan State does not have a face of their running backs. This is dating back to Jeremy Langford, Le’veon Bell, and Javon Ringer. It seemed that Michigan State always had one guy get a large percentage of carries, which was great for DFS purposes. This year is a little bit different as they realistically have four different guys who may get carries. Madre London will start, and if you are inclined to start someone from this four-headed monster is likely the guy to start. Michigan State has one of the best offensive lines in the count, so hopefully from a DFS standpoint someone emerges from this group of Madre London, Gerald Holmes, LJ Scott, and Delton Williams
Recommendation: With Madre London’s price being at $6,600 we recommend just avoiding this situation completely. Most of the running backs will see carries throughout the game, and it is likely a situation that is best served being avoided until someone emerges as the workhorse.
Western Michigan
Team Expected Points: 17.75
QB – Zach Terrell- $6,100
Analysis: Let us start by saying that we are a little bit surprised the team total is so low for Western Michigan. They bring a high powered offense in a home game versus a Michigan State secondary that is largely unproven as they lost a lot of players due to injury. They have had their two of their top corners injured and will miss this game. Terrell brings a lot to like mostly because of the players around him who we will get to later. One of the best things about Terrell is that he is consistent, he is a guy who is going to go out there and get you 250 yards and 1-2 touchdowns per game. At this price it allows you to spend on other players.
Recommendation: If you’re looking to punt at the quarterback position, there is a little bit of risk since the matchup is difficult, but he is a nice value play as a QB2 in cash games. Due to lack of upside, he is not a GPP recommended play
WR- Corey Davis- $7,700
We love Corey Davis this year and there are plenty of weeks you will want to pay up for him, however his price is too high to take him in a game like this, as while Michigan State’s secondary is banged up, they still have enough athletes to stay with Corey.
WR- Daniel Braverman- $5,300
Analysis: As his name says, you may have to be a Braverman than we are to take Daniel in this game. He is a PPR machine, so at his price he is not a bad play at all, but due to only scoring touchdowns in 3 games last year, finding the end zone versus the Spartans will make it tough.
Recommendation: He is a safe play who should receive 6-8 catches for 80 yards, which is not bad; however there are more intriguing players on this slate and enough value to go elsewhere.
Weber State at Oregon State
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Oregon State -28
O/U: 53
Oregon State
Team Expected Points: 40.5
QB – Marcus McMaryion and Seth Collins
Analysis: This one is disappointing, as coach Gary Andersen has come out and said that both quarterbacks will play in the opener. What this typically means is that neither one of them have value, however with a team that is expected to score 40.5 points, McMaryion has the dual threat ability that Andersen has used in his prior head coaching instances. He gave Tanner McEvoy every opportunity last year, and if we were to recommend a quarterback to take a shot in the dark on it would be McMaryion.
Recommendation: We are not recommending either quarterback, as there is too much risk involved
WR – Jordan Villamin- $4,800
Analysis: Jordan Villamin was the prototypical boom or bust player last season, and we fully expect him to be the same this year. He does receive a downgrade in quarterback play this year which makes it tough, however with his price, all it takes is one long pass for him to make value in a great matchup versus Weber State. We expect he should improve this year after an impressive freshman season with Oregon State, it is just a matter of will the quarterback play be enough to help him improve to an every week consistent starter.
Recommendation: Villamin is strictly a GPP play
Washington at Boise State
Kickoff: 10:15 PM EST
Spread: Boise -13
O/U: 55.5
Washington
Team Expected Points: 21.25
QB – KJ Carta-Samuels, Jake Browning
This is another situation where the college coach won’t announce who the starter is. Whoever it is, unless it is released by lineup lock, we are not recommending this as a play for tonight. It is a bad matchup versus a good Boise State defense
RB- Dwayne Washington- $5,200
Analysis: Dwayne Washington is a talented back who over-performed in his last three games of the season averaging 7.8 yards per carry. He benefited from three 60+ yard touchdowns in those last three games. He draws a tough matchup on the road versus a Boise State team. The question will be will he see an uptick in touches, as he averaged just 12 rushes per game last year, which makes it very difficult to make value.
Recommendation: We believe he will be over-owned, as people will just look at his last three regular season games without looking at the full picture. For that reason, we are not recommending him tonight unless you are in a cash game and want to protect yourself on the off-chance he breaks a long run.
Boise State
QB- Ryan Finley- $6,200
Analysis: Finally we have a quarterback that we can talk about. Finley is in a great matchup at home in his first start. While the data isn’t there to give you a full statistical breakdown, Washington was one of the worst pass defenses (allowed 283.9 yards per game) last year that should allow Finley to have a breakout game this first game of the season. While the Washington numbers are partially inflated due to being in the Pac-12, they are still poor and Boise State should score pretty easily tonight at home.
Recommendation: At this price, we recommend him to be in most of our lineups for both GPP and Cash. There is some risk as it is a quarterback in his first start, but the upside is great, with a floor that is safe.
WR- Thomas Sperbeck- $6,200
Analysis: Thomas Sperbeck is the typical boom/bust type wide receiver in college football. He only scored three touchdowns last year, which makes him very hard to trust as the yardage isn’t there on a consistent basis. He is in a good position to have a great season, but we will take a wait and see approach on him to see if he can either find the end zone more often or be more consistent in his 2015 season.
Recommendation: He is a deep GPP play if you are looking to differentiate yourself as he will have a few 150 yard games this season, but at that price point, he makes it difficult to trust in any other format.
WR- Shane Williams-Rhodes $5,700
Analysis: Williams-Rhodes is the complete opposite of Sperbeck. He is extremely consistent, but lacks any upside outside the seven touchdowns he scored last season. He is your typical possession receiver that is going to catch six passes for 55 yards
Recommendation: The price is too high in our opinion on DraftKings to trust Williams-Rhodes, while we like him as a player, he just doesn’t present the upside we are looking for to help off-set any misses in your lineup. Each player should have some sense of the ability to have a great game to carry you, and with Williams-Rhodes it will be difficult to exceed his value threshold.
Rhode Island at Syracuse
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Syracuse -36.5
O/U: 42
Syracuse
Team Expected Points: 39.25
WR – Steve Ishmael- $4,400
Analysis: Steve Ishmael is Syracuse go-to receiver for this upcoming season. What we have seen in the past is that the dual-threat quarterbacks typically won’t run in these lopsided games, which gives a huge boost to their wide receivers and running backs.
Recommendation: Ishmael is safe to have a good game for cash games, and also includes the upside in a blowout to be in GPP consideration.
RB- Devante McFarlane $5,500
Analysis: Devante McFarlane is a speed back who should be able to tear apart this Rhode Island team. Since he is in his first game as the full-time starter, he should see plenty of work to get him comfortable out there until the game is out of hand.
Recommendation: While the $5,500 is a little bit expensive, the lack of running backs in this slate makes him an intriguing option for both cash games and GPP’s, as there just aren’t a lot of great options out there today