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Joe Burrow has top-five upside among fantasy football quarterbacks this season. And if he's healthy enough to run the ball a handful of times per game, the sky is the limit. The recipe for Burrow is easy to see if you look hard enough. Versatile weapons, an improved offensive line, a terrible defense that will create positive game scripts, and an offensive-minded head coach will yield a quarterback who is top-three in the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards.
Burrow passed for at least 300 yards in 5 games last season. Due to a dynamic supporting cast and pass-friendly game scripts, he will go over 300 in at least 11 games this season, and he'll eclipse 400 yards at least twice. For fantasy purposes, that volume will bring touchdowns with it, which will make Burrow a value at his current draft position.
Is He Healthy?
Burrow tore his ACL in Week 11 last season, which put his 2021 Week 1 timetable in jeopardy from the moment he sustained the injury. But he has progressed on schedule this offseason, and all signs point to him playing in Week 1. Burrow started running again in February, he was reported to be ahead of schedule in late April, and as of mid-May, Adam Schefter has reasons to be optimistic.
More on Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow being “all systems go” for the Sept. 12 regular-season opener against the Minnesota Vikings:https://t.co/3pLjmmGx7u
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 18, 2021
Burrow participated in the team's voluntary OTAs as well. Assuming he's on the field in Week 1, Burrow should be throwing early and often. And he'll have a significantly improved supporting cast.
The Recipe for a Surprise QB1
High-performing offenses require capable quarterbacks. But those quarterbacks often have a dynamic set of weapons to help them get the job done. Burrow's supporting cast is young and unestablished, which is the only reason it's not getting as much buzz as it should. The selection of JaMarr Chase in the draft gives Cincinnati a true alpha wide receiver. Due to his opt-out in 2020, it's been a while since we've seen Chase play football. But let's remember what he did in the 2019 college football season:
- 14 games
- 84 receptions
- 1,780 yards (21.2 yards per reception)
- 20 touchdowns
Chase did that as a sophomore. And to show he wasn't out of shape after a year off, he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash with a 41-inch vertical jump at LSU's Pro Day in March. And the cherry on top of Chase's outlook is that the man throwing him the ball in 2019 is the same one who will be throwing him the ball in 2021. Chase has a chance to be an elite NFL wide receiver very early in his career. His deep speed and ball skills are evident when looking at his stats and tape. And his run-after-catch skills are another asset that can help protect Burrow and keep the offense moving.
But Chase isn't the only offensive weapon in Cincinnati. Last season, Tee Higgins led the team in receiving as a rookie. He finished just shy of 1,000 yards, but he played over five games with poor backup quarterbacking. Higgins and Burrow were finding their stride together in the weeks leading up to Burrow's knee injury. There are teams in the NFL who would love to have Higgins as a future WR1 prospect. In Cincinnati, he's already a high-end "Robin" to Chase's "Batman." Higgins also knows Burrow and can already see improvement in Burrow's velocity, despite the injury.
The young, dynamic duo provides another benefit to Zac Taylor's offense. It allows Tyler Boyd to man the slot, a position that better aligns with his skills than asking him to be a dynamic perimeter threat. Boyd had a string of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons broken last year due to poor quarterback play after Burrow's injury. Boyd isn't an elite wide receiver talent, but he produced his best seasons against top cornerback competition. He is capable of beating nickel corners consistently.
In addition to the wide receivers, Burrow has a pass-catching running back, an offensive-minded head coach, and a now-competent offensive line on his side. Cincinnati gets back a healthy Jonah Williams and acquired Riley Reiff in the offseason. The team's defense won't hold many opponents in check either, which will encourage Taylor to try to outscore opponents from the get-go each week.
2021 Projections
|
Projector
|
Games
|
Comps
|
Atts
|
PaYards
|
PaTDs
|
INTs
|
Rushes
|
RuYards
|
RuTDs
|
|
Footballguys Consensus
|
17
|
407
|
623
|
4,519
|
27
|
10
|
56
|
220
|
3
|
|
Anthony Amico
|
17
|
462
|
696
|
5,166
|
30
|
9
|
60
|
232
|
5
|
|
Sigmund Bloom
|
17
|
409
|
635
|
4,502
|
27
|
10
|
51
|
191
|
4
|
|
Justin Freeman
|
16
|
428
|
641
|
4,876
|
31
|
8
|
50
|
190
|
3
|
|
Bob Henry
|
16
|
387
|
595
|
4,320
|
28
|
8
|
59
|
230
|
3
|
|
Maurile Tremblay
|
16
|
367
|
582
|
4,046
|
22
|
14
|
72
|
272
|
4
|
|
Jason Wood
|
17
|
400
|
600
|
4,350
|
25
|
10
|
48
|
213
|
2
|
One of our projectors has Burrow going over 5,000 yards for the season. The others aren't as optimistic, but with quarterbacks in fantasy football, upside should drive decision-making. In one-quarterback leagues, the waiver wire will have players that can scrape together a top-12 week in the right matchup. Fantasy GMs should be shooting for the moon and looking to do so on the cheap in their drafts. Burrow offers that level of potential profit. Don't miss out.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail at hester@footballguys.com.
