Dynasty Trade Value Chart: June

Quantifying Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

June can be one of the slowest months on the dynasty calendar. Some leagues will be having rookie drafts and we will again focus in on this rookie class, with an emphasis on tiers at each position. It is also a good time to take a step back and look at the overall landscape at each position to better understand which tiers are best to target in trades.

In this month’s veteran dynasty trade value article, we will go deeper on:

1. Rookie Quarterback Tiers
2. Rookie Running Back Tiers
3. Progressively Narrowing Ranges of Outcomes
4. Rookie Wide Receiver Tiers
5. Potential Julio Jones Fallout
6. Rookie Tight End Tiers

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Customized Dynasty Values

We are working on customized dynasty values that adjust to your league size, starting roster requirements, and specific scoring. Tight end premium, 0.5 PPR, standard scoring, and many other formats are currently supported. More features and scoring options may be added to future versions. Take it for a test drive at the link below and let me know what you think:

Dynasty Trade Value Web App

Please send any feedback, suggestions for improvement, or issues to me (hindery@footballguys.com).

Quarterback

Pos Rank
Player
Single-QB
Superflex
1
26
60
2
23
54
3
22
53
4
20
50
5
18
50
6
16
45
7
14
45
8
14
43
9
13
40
10
12
35
11
10
36
12
9
32
13
9
28
14
9
26
15
8
26
16
7
21
17
6
23
18
5
23
19
5
23
20
5
19
21
5
15
22
4
17
23
3
16
24
3
16
25
2
15
26
2
15
27
1
13
28
1
13
29
1
9
30
1
8
31
1
8
32
1
7
33
1
7
34
1
6
35
1
6
36
1
6
37
1
6
38
1
6
39
1
6
40
1
6
41
0
3
42
0
2
43
0
2
44
0
1
45
0
1
46
0
1

Rookie QB Tiers

How do we define a Tier Break?

Fantasy football tiers are an inherently subjective construct and everyone thinks of them differently. Here is my construct: Would I drop down to the next player at the position if I was offered a pick in the next round to do so?

For example, if I had the 1.01 in a superflex draft (Trevor Lawrence) and the owner of the team on deck offered me the 1.02 (Trey Lance) and 2.02, would I accept the offer? If I’d take the offer and move down, then I view the players as in the same general tier. If instead, the choice would be to stay put and make the pick instead of moving down and adding that extra pick in the next round, then that indicates a real tier break at the position.

Tier 1

Trevor Lawrence - A few months ago, Lawrence would have been alone in this tier. He is still the top guy on the board given his combination of a high floor and a high ceiling but the gap has closed. This is the example used above in the tier break section. Give me an early-second round pick and I would drop down to Lance in the same tier.

Trey Lance - Lance has the most fantasy upside in this rookie quarterback class given his athleticism and the plum landing spot. If there was going to be a tier break amongst the top tier at the position, it would be here. However, I like the next guy on the list just enough to keep the two in the same tier.

Justin Fields - Fields is probably the most boom-or-bust in the top tier. When he was on his game at Ohio State, he was as dominant as any player in college football over the last couple of years. He also had stretches where he did not look ready to lead an NFL franchise.

Zach Wilson - As with Josh Allen a few years ago, some seem to be underestimating Wilson’s athleticism and fantasy upside as a runner. Like Allen, Wilson also has some things he needs to iron out if he is going to last as an NFL starter. The overall risk-versus-reward proposition makes sense in the middle of the first round of a Superflex rookie draft. Some will understandably balk at the landing spot but the Jets have added some nice offensive pieces in the last two drafts (Mekhi Becton, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims, and Michael Carter) and are loaded with draft picks moving forward as well.

Tier 2

Mac Jones - Even as a believer in Jones developing into a long-term NFL starter, the lack of rushing upside tempers enthusiasm from a fantasy perspective and knocks him out of the top tier. In a league where it seems multiple new young dual-threat quarterbacks are emerging as fantasy difference-makers every year, it is hard to get excited about a pure pocket passer — especially in a New England offense that lacks elite playmakers.

Tier 3

Kellen Mond - As noted last month, it does not look like Kirk Cousins is long for Minnesota. Mond, like each of the quarterbacks in this tier, was drafted early enough to know his team believes there is at least a decent chance they landed their starter of the future. He tops the tier due to having the most athleticism.

Davis Mills - Mills has the clearest path to a starting job amongst this tier given Deshaun Watson’s legal issues and demands to be traded. If he gets an audition, he will have to show enough to convince Houston to pass on a quarterback should they land one of the top picks in 2022.

Kyle Trask - Weird as it is to say given Tom Brady’s age, Trask likely has the longest wait amongst the quarterbacks in this tier to actually compete for a starting job.

Running Back

Pos Rank
Player
Value
1
48
2
42
3
42
4
41
5
40
6
36
7
34
8
34
9
34
10
32
11
32
12
31
13
31
14
30
15
30
16
27
17
27
18
27
19
26
20
25
21
24
22
22
23
16
24
14
25
16
26
10
27
10
28
9
29
8
30
8
31
8
32
8
33
8
34
7
35
7
36
7
37
7
38
6
39
Zach Moss
6
40
6
41
5
42
5
43
5
44
5
45
5
46
5
47
5
48
4
49
4
50
4
51
Kenny Gainwell
4
52
4
53
3
54
3
55
2
56
2
57
2
58
2
59
2
60
1
61
Lamical Perine
1
62
1
63
Jeffrey Wilson
1
64
1
65
1

Rookie Running Back Tiers

Tier 1

Najee Harris In best ball drafts, Harris has already moved up into the middle of the second round. He is going ahead of Antonio Gibson now and only a few spots later than proven veterans like Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones. With a skill set perfectly suited to being a three-down workhorse and a team who has shown every indication they will instantly use him as such, Harris should be a fantasy monster right out of the gates. For me, it would take more than a second-round pick to downgrade to the next back on the list. Thus, Harris is in a tier of his own.

Tier 2

Travis Etienne The pendulum may have swung from “not worried enough about Etienne’s likely usage” to “too worried about Etienne’s usage” after he worked mostly at wide receiver in rookie OTAs. There is still a lot to like about Etienne’s game and his PPR upside but the risk he ends up being a fantasy bust feels higher than normal for a first-round running back. He is going off the board a full 30 picks behind Harris in 2021 redraft leagues as we enter the month of June.

Javonte Williams Thought experiment: How much would the dynasty value of Williams increase if Melvin Gordon III was cut by the Broncos tomorrow? The guess here is the rise would be significant. Which begs the question, why are we discounting Williams (who just turned 21-years old a month ago) from a dynasty perspective simply because he shares a running back room with a 28-year old veteran in the final year of his contract? The Williams versus Etienne decision in rookie drafts is not an easy one.

Tier 3

Trey Sermon The landing spot is certainly attractive given how successful almost any running back who suits up in Kyle Shanahan’s offense has been of late. It is also fair to wonder how much earlier Sermon might have been drafted but for his long injury history.

Tier 4

Michael Carter Many will have Carter in the same tier as Sermon and the case is not hard to make. The landing spot is attractive given how underwhelming the other Jets backs are and Carter has some talent. However, there have been so many fourth-round running back busts in recent years with very few success stories. Carter also looks built to be part of a committee and is unlikely to ever have the Jets backfield to himself. It feels like Carter is being drafted a few spots too early in most rookie drafts.

Chuba Hubbard Unlike Carter, Hubbard is a clear backup and needs an injury to have any fantasy relevancy. However, the depth of this offensive rookie class is lacking. When you get into the third round of rookie drafts this year, significant injury upside (we saw what Mike Davis did last season) does not seem like a bad value proposition.

Rhamondre Stevenson Again, he probably needs an injury ahead of him to make any fantasy impact.

Kenny Gainwell As with Hubbard, Gainwell needs an injury to the starter to have any real shot at fantasy relevancy the next couple of years.

Wide Receiver

Pos Rank
Player
Value
1
43
2
40
3
40
4
40
5
38
6
35
7
34
8
34
9
32
10
29
11
29
12
28
13
28
14
26
15
26
16
26
17
25
18
24
19
23
20
22
21
22
22
21
23
19
24
19
25
18
26
18
27
18
28
17
29
17
30
16
31
16
32
14
33
13
34
13
35
12
36
12
37
12
38
12
39
11
40
11
41
11
42
11
43
10
44
9
45
9
46
9
47
8
48
8
49
8
50
8
51
8
52
8
53
7
54
7
55
7
56
7
57
7
58
7
59
7
60
6
61
6
62
6
63
6
64
5
65
5
66
5
67
5
68
5
69
5
70
4
71
4
72
4
73
4
74
4
75
4
76
4
77
4
78
3
79
3
80
3
81
2
82
2
83
2
84
2
85
2
86
2
87
1
88
1
89
1
90
1
91
1
92
1
93
1
94
1

Rookie Wide Receiver Tiers

Tier 1

Ja'Marr Chase The fourth-round redraft ADP (47th overall and rising as we enter June) is unheard of for a rookie wide receiver. Chase is going almost three full rounds ahead of DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle and is almost 18 months younger than the two former Alabama wide receivers. It is easy to get excited about Chase’s skill set and landing spot.

Tier 2

Jaylen Waddle The dynasty community should be more excited about Waddle. His speed and acceleration are special. Unlike some other recent speed guys, Waddle also plays with some physicality and can go high point the football like a bigger wide receiver.

DeVonta Smith Smith versus Waddle is a coin flip. Both are fantastic prospects who landed in spots where the young quarterbacks still have to prove themselves. The disappointing rookie seasons from former teammates Henry Ruggs III and Jerry Jeudy have made some more hesitant than they otherwise would be when it comes to Smith and Waddle.

Tier 3

Rashod Bateman A case can be made to put Bateman in Tier 2. A mediocre junior year, a college system that inflates production, poor NFL landing spot, and the underrated talent of the next few guys on this list make him a better fit at the top of Tier 3.

Elijah Moore His fantasy fate is largely tied to how good Zach Wilson is. If Wilson hits, Moore could be a volume target who racks up catches and yardage.

Kadarius Toney Every year there is one guy who ends up on an inordinately large number of my dynasty rosters. Toney is that guy this year. If I am picking in the middle part of the second round, he is my target. If he is the last guy in this tier available, I am aggressively offering trades to move up for him. There are legitimate concerns about a crowded wide receiver room, the Giants offense in general, and how exactly Toney will be used. At Florida, he always found a way to get into the end zone. If that knack carries over to the NFL, the opportunities will come.

Rondale Moore Moore is a fun player and landed in a great spot to maximize his talents. If he is used as an extension of the running game with a lot of quick screens, Moore could be PPR gold.

Terrace Marshall Jr Marshall slid in the draft due to injury concerns and a perception that he is better suited as a complementary piece and no the go-to offensive target.

Tier 4

D'Wayne Eskridge Eskridge has elite speed and is bigger than many seem to think. There is real upside here and Eskridge could be the long-term WR2 in Seattle.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Getting pushed up the board due to his landing spot, which rarely works out.

Josh Palmer Sneakily great landing spot. Mike Williams is in the final year of his deal and Keenan Allen is almost 30.

Dyami Brown Solid talent but is likely just the WR3 over the medium term in an offense that also heavily utilizes tight ends and running backs in the passing game.

Nico Collins Could be the WR2 in Houston as a rookie but is there a path to fantasy relevancy without Deshaun Watson?

Amari Rodgers If Aaron Rodgers is not in Green Bay, it is hard to get excited about Amari Rodgers.

Tutu Atwell Can’t ignore second-round draft capital but still hard to envision how he makes a fantasy impact.

Jacob Harris The hope here is Harris is eventually listed as a tight end, where the floor for fantasy relevancy is much lower. Freaky size-speed guy who is worth stashing, especially in TE-premium formats.

There are a number of other wide receivers, including Anthony Schwartz, Dez Fitzpatrick, Cornell Powell, Frank Darby, Jaelon Darden, Tylan Wallace, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, and Simi Fehoko who are worth stashing in deeper leagues or keeping an eye on for waivers in more shallow leagues.

Julio Jones Impact

It looks like a matter of when, not if, Julio Jones is traded. Let’s consider the potential dynasty fallout given the rumored leaders for his services.

  1. Calvin Ridley will continue to see his value rise in both redraft and dynasty. His best ball ADP has risen to 23rd overall on Underdog and there is room for that to go higher. When the splits with Julio Jones out are fully digested, Ridley may even push towards the late first-round.
  2. Tennessee is among the reported leaders for Jones. While it would not have a major negative impact on A.J. Brown, it would depress his value some given there are only so many targets to go around in Tennessee’s run-heavy offense.
  3. Seattle is also rumored to be in contention, which would be a boon for Russell Wilson but not the best news for DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, or D’Wayne Eskridge.
  4. Baltimore is involved, which would halt the Rashod Bateman hype in its tracks.
  5. Philadelphia has some interest, which would be a short-term blow to DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor.

Narrowing Range of Outcomes

There is an old aphorism that a good education is not about learning the answers to specific questions (the what) but instead gaining an understanding of how you go about answering any question. On occasion, it is worth taking a step back and considering the how in the context of dynasty valuation from a bigger picture perspective. Let’s do that now.

There was an interesting conversation in the Shark Pool this week about ranking Michael Gallup, Jaylen Waddle, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, D.J. Chalk, and Rashod Bateman. While the details and individual breakdowns are interesting, it also provides a chance to step back and try to view the forest from above the trees and talk about process.

At any position, my first step is to try to determine a relative baseline against which to measure fantasy production. There are a number ways to do so but for purposes of this bigger-picture discussion, let’s simply look at “replacement value” through the lens of how much fantasy production we can get at the position from players that are easy to acquire. In PPR scoring last season, Marvin Jones Jr produced 14.2 PPG. Jamison Crowder (14.4), Cole Beasley (13.8), Corey Davis (13.8), and Sterling Shepard (13.4) each produced in a similar range. In short, if you are a contender in 2021 or a future season, you can probably find a wide receiver that will give you 13 PPG with relative ease. Either one of the guys listed above or their 2021 equivalent. So let’s begin our process by noting that only 13 wide receivers played a majority of the games and scored more than 16 PPG last year. Plenty of others helped your dynasty team but these were the 13 that really mattered and actually outscored guys like Cole Beasley by more than a couple of points per game.

Now that we have determined what level of production truly makes a difference at the wide receiver position, let’s frame this valuation discussion through the lens of a wide receiver’s chances of developing into a guy who really matters for our fantasy teams. It is not just a simple calculation of taking the middle of Player X’s range of outcomes versus the middle of Player Y’s range of outcomes. We want to ignore the projections. Instead, we are most interested in the odds that we can get elite production from Player X Yersus the same odds for Player Y. The sole focus should be on upside with the floor serving as more of a tie-breaker.

With this in mind, we have to acknowledge that the further a guy gets into his career without putting together that big breakout season, the lesser his chances are of ever emerging as a star. Or put differently, a player’s realistic range of outcomes narrows over time. You can #wellactually your way to some counter-examples of late-career breakouts but the principle is sound. For some of these guys going into year four, we can look forward to situational improvements or further development but the range of outcomes has already narrowed and odds of superstardom are lower than they are for the youngest guys in this group. For example, a rookie like Jaylen Waddle has a very wide range of outcomes. He is much more likely to bust but also more likely to develop into a guy that really matters. We want to chase that upside aggressively because we should have confidence that we can surround the superstars in our starting lineup with solid producers at a low cost.

Tight End

Pos Rank
Player
Value
1
30
2
28
3
23
4
23
5
18
6
17
7
12
8
10
9
7
10
6
11
6
12
6
13
6
14
5
15
5
16
5
17
5
18
4
19
4
20
3
21
3
22
3
23
3
24
3
25
3
26
2
27
2
28
2
29
2
30
2
31
2
32
2
33
2
34
2
35
1
36
1
37
1
38
1
39
1
40
1

Tight End Rookie Tiers

Tier 1

Kyle Pitts Ranking someone as the most valuable dynasty player at his position before he has ever taken a snap is a first here. However, Pitts is such a unique talent that expecting the extraordinary is not outlandish. Sigmund Bloom on a recent episode of The Audible framed this in a way that makes a lot of sense (paraphrasing): “If he doesn’t continue to do things we haven’t seen before, he is not meeting expectations.” We very rarely see rookie tight ends make an immediate impact but we would need a top-six fantasy season out of Pitts to justify his current valuation.

Let’s take a look at the case for Pitts as the dynasty TE1… Travis Kelce has been absolutely dominant the last three years. Nobody is more proven. However, he turns 32-years old in October. Kelce is 11 years (and one day) older than Pitts. However many more years you expect to get production from Kelce, you should add 11 years onto that number as your Pitts projection. The risk-versus-reward equation from a dynasty perspective favors Pitts. The age gap between Pitts and Kittle is seven years. While Kittle is safer given what he has proven already in the NFL, he also has only 14 career touchdowns entering his age-28 NFL season. If he had a flawless resume, it would be easier to shrug off the seven-year age gap.

Tier 2

Pat Freiermuth A forgotten man, given the attention on Pitts. In a Pittsburgh offense that has been pass-heavy, there is solid fantasy upside here.

Tier 3

Hunter Long If Mike Gesicki does not get an extension, there is some modest fantasy upside here.

Tommy Tremble Outstanding athlete known for his blocking but may be able to unlock receiving potential in the NFL.

Kylen Granson At least a little bit of fantasy upside given he is basically an oversized slot receiver.

Tre’ McKitty Third-round draft capital and a solid landing spot with the Chargers.

Brevin Jordan Another oversized slot receiver but the draft slide into the fifth-round makes it hard to get excited.

News and Notes

  1. Zach Ertz is likely to be on the move early in June. Depending on his landing spot (Buffalo would be fun), he could see a nice bounce back in dynasty value.
  2. The departure of Ertz is mostly priced into the value of Dallas Goedert but sometimes it takes a move being official for the real bump to fully kick in.
  3. Along the same lines, the ascension of Kyle Pitts to TE1 may become a consensus opinion after a Julio Jones trade becomes official.

More articles from Dan Hindery

See all

More articles on: Dynasty

See all