Dynasty Trade Value Chart: January

Dynasty Trade Values

The 2020 fantasy season is in the books. Hopefully, it was a great one for you filled with wins and moves made to set up your team for long-term success. Before we get into #startupseason, start preparing for free agency, or put together our rookie draft boards, we have some time in the month of January to take our first in-depth look back to try to contextualize and understand what we saw in 2020. That will be the focus of this month’s article, especially the following questions:

  • Which players really mattered at each position?
  • How much value did we actually get from the players on our rosters?
  • When everyone has had time to digest the 2020 stats, which players are going to see their dynasty values start to creep up or fall later in the offseason?

To help answer these questions, we calculated the total 2020 fantasy production for each player above and beyond replacement level production at their position (PPR scoring). There are slightly different ways to calculate this number but the details of the calculation are less important than the big picture takeaways. These season-long value numbers are an approximation of the weekly advantage you would have had with a specific player in your lineup compared to an opponent starting a replacement-level player at the same position (adjusted for the number of games played). Below, you will see every player at each position who had a value of at least 2.0 points in 2020.

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored to 12-team PPR leagues with a starting lineup of one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, and one flex. It now also includes trade values for Superflex leagues in a separate column. The chart is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but can also be a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, the offer is worth strongly considering. Each league is different, so pay close attention to the scoring and starting roster requirements specific to your league.

Quarterback

Pos Rank
Player
Actual 2020 Value
Age
1
7.8
24
2
7.6
23
3
7.1
25
4
7.0
37
5
5.9
32
6
5.8
25
7
5.7
43
8
5.4
22
9
4.9
32
10
4.9
23
11
3.8
31
12
3.5
32
13
3.3
35
14
3.2
27
15
2.9
29
16
2.5
25
17
2.3
38
18
2.1
26

2020 actual value takeaways

  1. As predicted before the season, we had a major youth movement at the position. The top three quarterbacks were each 25 or younger. We also saw greater separation between the top quarterbacks and the replacement level passers than we have in recent years. Players like Allen, Murray, and Mahomes returned as much value as mid-low end RB1s and WR1s. Considering their expected career longevity compared to other positions (especially running back), it probably means these top young passers are still a bit undervalued compared to other positions. The “late-round quarterback” mentality has become so ingrained in our redraft mindset, that it is bleeding over into dynasty more than it should. In redraft, it is understandable since the overall QB1 each of the last three years (Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes II, respectively) went off the board in the 8th-to-10th rounds going into those seasons.
  2. Justin Herbert’s monster rookie season makes him one of the biggest steals of 2020 rookie drafts. The question will be how much of a jump he can make. We saw Daniel Jones (also a sixth-overall pick) regress after his rookie season. We saw Josh Allen (a seventh-overall pick) make big jumps after both his rookie and his second season. If Herbert makes gains over the next year or two, he could make a push towards the overall QB1. This will be a big offseason for the Chargers and for Herbert’s development with a new coaching staff coming in. An interesting hire would be Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who was partially responsible for helping Allen make a big leap.
  3. It was not a huge fantasy year for Baker Mayfield (QB15 in actual value) but his Superflex dynasty value still gets a solid boost. He led the downtrodden Browns franchise to the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years, which buys him some medium-term job security.

Quarterback Dynasty Values

Pos Rank
Player
Superflex
Single-QB
1
60
32
2
50
26
3
50
26
4
45
18
5
45
18
6
42
17
7
45
16
8
40
14
9
34
14
10
26
13
11
25
8
12
25
6
13
20
5
14
18
4
15
18
5
16
15
5
17
12
5
18
20
4
19
20
4
20
15
3
22
13
3
24
13
2
25
12
2
21
12
2
26
12
2
23
10
2
27
12
1
28
9
1
29
8
1
30
8
1
31
8
0
32
5
0
33
5
0
34
5
0

Running Back

Pos Rank
Player
Actual 2020 Value
Age
1
14.9
25
2
12.8
25
3
11.8
26
4
8.1
23
5
7.9
26
6
7.5
21
7
7.3
22
8
6.4
24
9
6.2
22
10
5.9
25
11
5.1
25
12
5.1
22
13
5
27
14
4.9
26
15
4.9
21
16
4.8
25
17
4.8
27
18
4.7
28
19
4.4
25
20
4.3
23
21
4.3
23
22
4.2
23
23
4.1
24
24
4.1
26
25
3.9
25
26
3.9
27
27
3.9
24
28
3.8
21
29
3.3
26
30
3.3
21
31
3.2
29
32
3
24
33
2.9
24
34
2.8
30
35
2.7
25
36
2.5
23
37
2.5
28
38
2.4
26
39
2.1
25
40
2.1
30

2020 actual value takeaways

  1. The average age of the Top 12 running backs for the 2020 season was 24.
  2. Derrick Henry was the old man of the group at age 26 (he turned 27-years old yesterday).
  3. We know age matters at running back more than any other position. It is a young man’s position and the top of the 2020 value list bears that out.
  4. The three running backs who separated from the pack (plus another elite back we will touch on) are each going into either their fifth or sixth NFL seasons. One of the biggest questions everyone will have to consider during startups and in making trades this offseason is how much longevity to project for these guys. Do you value them as if they are right in the middle of their prime or do you assume that this is the tail end of their prime?
  5. Let’s start with the elite back going into his fifth-year who was not at the top of our value list. Christian McCaffrey was the 27th most valuable running back in 2020 despite only playing three games. If he had kept up his three-game pace for the full 16-game season, he would have had a value of 20.6, lapping the field. We can’t shrug it off as simply a small sample size outlier either because this monster per game value number is right in line with what he did for a full season in 2019 and down the stretch in 2018. This is an example of why trying to put projected value numbers on players is so important. How many big years do you think McCaffrey has left? Do you project him for at least a couple more monster 15+ seasons? If so, it is easy to justify drafting him highly even if you think he does not have a whole lot of prime years left.
  6. If McCaffrey is not the top dynasty back, then Jonathan Taylor is. On the strength of a strong finish, he ended up finishing as the 6th-most valuable back in 2020 (though his big Week 17 did not actually help fantasy teams). Players like Cook and Kamara are more proven and should have more receiving upside but Taylor is three years younger. That matters so much at the running back position that the advice here is to err on the side of youth.
  7. Deciding just how much of a freak you think Derrick Henry is will be key to determining whether he is a buy or sell for you this offseason. If you zoom out and look at it from the 100-foot view, this is a 27-year old running back coming off of back-to-back 400+ touch seasons (playoffs included) who is still valued very highly. Just based upon that, he looks like an easy fade based upon history and what we have seen from the vast majority of running backs who have seen that level of usage. When you zoom in, Henry does seem like a freak of nature who is uniquely built to maintain this type of heavy workload for longer than a mere mortal back. Tough call here.

Running Back Dynasty Values

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