AFC East
Buffalo
Zack Moss is quickly endearing himself to the coaches and could force a committee with Devin Singletary that is much closer to 50-50 (if not in Moss’s favor at times) than the wide gap between their ADP indicates. Josh Allen is still Josh Allen.
Action Items: Target Moss as one of your bench running backs as long as he doesn’t start going in the 7th/8th round. Pass on Singletary unless he falls to the 7th/8th. Allen isn’t compelling at ADP with Moss possibly cutting into his rushing touchdowns despite the possible added efficiency in the offense with the addition of Stefon Diggs. Allen has to be more consistent for it to matter.
Miami
Preston Williams is on track to play in Week 1, but that’s no reason to fade Mike Gesicki or DeVante Parker as the Dolphins #3 (Albert Wilson) and #4 (Allen Hurns) receivers opted out of the season. This passing game produced over 2300 yards in the second half of the season and should have a narrow target tree this year. Matt Breida could get more work in the passing game, perhaps even as a receiver. The offensive line could be ok as the team loves first-round tackle Austin Jackson and fourth-round guard Solomon Kindley. Xavien Howard has been slow to get going, but first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene looks ready to deliver on investment already, giving the Dolphins depth between the best starting corner duo in the league.
Action Items: Target Parker in the 6th/7th and Williams/Gesicki in the 11th/12th. If you already liked Breida, you have another reason to give him a chance in PPR leagues. This feels like a backfield to avoid to me, but it could have a hit if the line gels and the team is competitive, or if Breida stays healthy.
New England
Cam Newton has pulled away in the quarterback competition, but mostly because Jarrett Stidham pulled up lame. Sony Michel is questionable for Week 1 and it looks like Damien Harris will have a chance to overtake Michel. N’keal Harry has had an up and down camp, but he is trending in the right direction. Julian Edelman looks like the only reliable option in the downfield passing game. Devin Asiasi has done enough in his first camp to wonder if he’s well on the “hit” track already. The Patriots had their best linebacker (Donta Hightower) opt-out after their other top two linebackers from last year left in free agency.
Action Items: Newton’s status as an upside QB2 has solidified, but none of his targets are particularly attractive at ADP. Maybe James White could do a Christian McCaffrey impression in the passing game. Edelman is worth a PPR pick if he falls out of the first 6-7 rounds. Harris is worth a late-round pick to see how he performs after earning opportunity. Harry still belongs on your endgame target list because of Cam Newton’s history with Kelvin Benjamin. Put Asiasi on your early season waiver wire watch list. This still feels like one of the worst offenses in the league even with Newton upgrading the quarterback play. The Patriots feel like a funnel defense encouraging teams to run with a strong secondary but lots of change in the front seven, which could lead to solid starts for Jordan Howard in Week 1 and Chris Carson in Week 2.
NY Jets
Chris Herndon has drawn rave reviews and should have a chance to get an outsized target share with Chris Hogan or Jeff Smith in line to be a starting wide receiver Week 1 vs Buffalo - second-round pick Denzel Mims has a hamstring keeping him out of camp and Vyncint Smith is out with core muscle surgery. Le’Veon Bell is in good shape but the offensive line isn’t. Breshad Perriman is the #1 outside receiver and riffing with Darnold, but Robby Anderson couldn’t make this role consistently productive last year and Perriman’s knee has acted up in camp. Presumptive #1 corner Pierre Desir has been nursing and presumptive #1 ILB Avery Williamson has been slow coming back from knee surgery for a defense that will be without CJ Mosley, who opted out, and Jamal Adams, who was traded to Seattle before camp. Adam Gase loves Frank Gore, traded a pick for Kalen Ballage, and is inventing hamstring injuries for Le'Veon Bell.
Action Item: Make Herndon a priority late-round tight end target whether you take your TE1 in the early, mid, or late rounds, but otherwise stay away from this offense.
AFC South
Houston
I’m still open to Duke Johnson Jr at his dollar store ADP as there has been noise about more two-back sets. If you wanted to take David Johnson, he hasn’t given you any reason to change that stance in camp so far. Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks have been smooth in their transition to the offense and Will Fuller hasn’t gotten hurt.
Action Items: Target Duke late in PPR leagues if you’re a glutton for punishment like me. All of the top three Texans wide receivers could be big hits at ADP and Cobb should be a part of everyone’s endgame in PPR.
Indianapolis
Every sign points to Jonathan Taylor getting to take over the Colts backfield sooner than later. T.Y. Hilton got over a hamstring injury suffered before camp and has stayed healthy to date. Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman are looking like excellent supporting cast members, but Philip Rivers has been throwing to tight ends and running backs a lot in practice - including Trey Burton who is set for a stable role in the offense whether Jack Doyle stays healthy or not. Recent second-round picks Kemoko Turay and Tyquan Lewis are coming on to make this defensive line even scarier after they added DeForest Buckner via trade in the offseason.
Action Items: Don’t be afraid to take Taylor in the third if you were leaning that way and consider him in the fourth even if you weren’t. Hilton remains an excellent pick if he makes it to the sixth. Campbell and Pittman should be on your waiver wire watch list, but Nyheim Hines is the best late-round Colt pick.
Jacksonville
Gardner Minshew hasn’t disappointed in his first camp as the undisputed starter. Ryquell Armstead has looked good after he came off of the COVID list, but Devine Ozigbo has solidified his roster spot and should be on your deep dynasty watch list. DJ Chark is putting on a show daily, Laviska Shenault is going to be a big part of the offense right away, and Keelan Cole might have separated himself from Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook, who has had a shoulder issue. Josh Oliver went down with a foot injury, leaving Tyler Eifert as the clear #1.
Action Items: Chark should be prominent on your 5th round wide receiver target list and Shenault late. Eifert is a late-round 2-TE league (one of my favorite underappreciated formats) target.
Tennessee
Corey Davis is over the toe injury that slowed him in 2019 and necessitated surgery in the offseason. Derrick Henry might play a larger role in the passing game with a rookie (Darrynton Evans) as his primary backup this year.
Action Items: Davis is an endgame target and Henry should be your target #5. I won’t talk you out of taking him #3 or #4.
AFC North
Baltimore
J.K. Dobbins has been as good as advertised, but Mark Ingram is still the starter. Devin Duvernay is ahead of schedule and will provide another vertical element to the passing game, along with Miles Boykin. This passing attack will be even more dangerous than last year when also factor in a healthy Marquise Brown. Lamar Jackson had a slight groin issue but is back at practice. Earl Thomas got run out of town by his teammates and the team will turn to DeShon Elliott at free safety.
Action Items: Dobbins has league-winning upside and is worth a pick at ADP, but he has farther to go to get there than Jonathan Taylor. Lamar Jackson is still worth a second-round pick. Marquise Brown is still worth a seventh (or earlier). Keep Boykin and Duvernay on your waiver wire watch list if Brown gets hurt.
Cincinnati
Joe Burrow has been everything the Bengals hoped for and more. He is going to elevate this offense right away. Joe Mixon has had migraines, but some worry if his absence was contract related. Pour one out for Rodney Anderson, who was released. If A.J. Green can stay on the field through the end of camp we will consider it a victory after he opened camp with a hamstring issue. Tee Higgins has also had a hamstring issue and John Ross was away from the team attending to family matters, opening the door for Auden Tate to have a massive camp and become Burrow’s favorite red-zone target.
Action Items: Burrow should be a priority for late-round quarterback drafters, but he’s also a high upside backup. Mixon might finally take off if Burrow’s play can outweigh the trouble of running behind a piecemeal line. Tyler Boyd should be a priority target as the most stable target in this offense and Justin Jefferson for Burrow, and Tate is worth a last round pick. If he’s not drafted keep Tate on high on your waiver wire watch list.
Cleveland
Nick Chubb quickly returned from a concussion, after a criticized hit up high from Mack Wilson, who later suffered a knee injury that could sideline him for the open of the season. Second-round pick Grant Delpit went down with a torn Achilles, leaving an already thin safety position even thinner. There’s some buzz about Kareem Hunt doing more since he’s healthy and not having to sit out the first half of the season. Odell Beckham is healthy and maybe not dazzling camp observers on a daily basis, but still making some old Beckham plays. Jarvis Landry is coming along slowly after offseason hip surgery, but probably more out of precaution. David Njoku is probably making the Browns wish they had traded him before camp after he had additional problems with a wrist injury, and he could be passed by fourth-round pick Harrison Bryant.
Action Items: Maybe be more willing to pass on Chubb in the early second round and take Hunt in the sixth if you are going to take a Browns running back. If you were going to target Beckham around the 3/4 turn, he has given you no reason to change that plan.
Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger is in good shape and his elbow is sound, maybe even better than before. Diontae Johnson has been battling a calf issue and Juju Smith-Schuster has been quiet, while second-round pick Chase Claypool is having a great camp. Eric Ebron is also striking up a quick rapport with Roethlisberger. Benny Snell has also shown up in better shape and seized the backup role behind James Conner, who is still the clear #1.
Action Items: Roethlisberger is a value at ADP and a high floor QB1 option in leagues that boost scoring for passing stats. No Steelers wide receiver is attractive at ADP, but Ebron should be on your waiver wire watch list. Snell is the handcuff to Conner, not Anthony McFarland, and Snell belongs on endgame target lists. Be on the lookout for this offense to be an overachiever.
AFC West
Denver
K.J. Hamler was off to a hot start in camp, but a hamstring injury has stopped his progress. Jerry Jeudy has been getting open against everyone in camp and could end up leading the team in targets. Melvin Gordon has had a rib issue and Phillip Lindsay is sometimes getting the first work with the first team, suggesting something close to if not a 50/50 RBBC. Todd Davis suffered a calf injury that could keep him out for Week 1 vs. Tennessee.
Action Items: Push Jeudy up to the top tier of rookie wide receivers in redraft with Ceedee Lamb and Jalen Reagor. Break ties against Sutton in his deep WR2/WR3 tier. Fade Gordon unless he falls until the fifth round and be open to Lindsay in the eighth or later.
Kansas City
Sammy Watkins got dinged early in camp and recovered, but he reminded us about his lengthy injury history. Tyreek Hill has a minor hamstring issue. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has looked the part of a lead back only instilled confidence in his ability to carry the load. Darrel Williams is the leader to backup Edwards-Helaire in a crowded backfield depth chart with DeAndre Washington, Darwin Thompson, and Elijah McGuire.
Action Items: Mecole Hardman is a great upside bench pick since both players ahead of him in the pecking order have already broken the injury seal. Edwards-Helaire isn’t a crazy pick in the mid-first round. If you are looking for an Edwards-Helaire handcuff, Williams is the best pick, but expect a committee if the rookie goes down.
Las Vegas
The talk of Josh Jacobs getting 40 or more receptions this year has picked up. Tyrell Williams suffered a torn labrum but intends to play through it. Henry Ruggs has had a good camp, but Bryan Edwards has been even better and could be the biggest beneficiary if Williams ends up sitting. Marcus Mariota hasn’t challenged Derek Carr for the starting job. Nelson Agholor is doing enough to make the team and be a contributor to the passing game,
Action Items: If you were targeting Jacobs in the late first/early second on the hopes of more work in the passing game, you should feel more encouraged to do that. The passing game might be too crowded to yield a consistent performer unless Derek Carr outplays expectations.
LA Chargers
Joshua Kelley is having a good camp and could overtake Justin Jackson to become the #2 back. Mike Williams sprained his shoulder and is questionable for Week 1 against the Bengals. Rookie Joe Reed or late 2019 call-up Jalen Guyton could open the season as a starter. Justin Herbert isn’t pushing to start Week 1, but no one expected him to. Melvin Ingram III held out for a brief moment and got his 2020 salary fully guaranteed for his trouble.
Action Items: Kelley is probably the late-round Chargers back to target at this point. Williams falls to the bottom of his tier and Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler all have a better chance to get off to solid starts if Williams misses time to open the season.
