Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated Sunday, October 25nd @ 7 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Green Bay | Houston | -3.5 | 57 | 30.25 | ««« | ««« | |
Seattle | Arizona | -3.5 | 55 | 29.25 | «« | «« | |
Atlanta | Detroit | -2 | 55 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
Tampa Bay | Las Vegas | -5 | 52 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
New Orleans | Carolina | -6.5 | 50 | 28.25 | «« | ««« | |
LA Chargers | Jacksonville | -7.5 | 49 | 28.25 | «« | ««« | |
Buffalo | NY Jets | -10 | 46 | 28 | «« | ««« | « |
Cleveland | Cincinnati | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | « | « | |
Houston | Green Bay | 3.5 | 57 | 26.75 | « | « | |
Detroit | Atlanta | 2 | 55 | 26.5 | « | « | |
Tennessee | Pittsburgh | -1.5 | 51 | 26.25 | « | « | |
Arizona | Seattle | 3.5 | 55 | 25.75 | |||
Kansas City | Denver | -7 | 44 | 25.5 | « | ||
LA Rams | Chicago | -6 | 45 | 25.5 | « | ||
Pittsburgh | Tennessee | 1.5 | 51 | 24.75 | |||
Philadelphia | NY Giants | -4.5 | 44.5 | 24.5 | |||
Cincinnati | Cleveland | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
New England | San Francisco | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
Las Vegas | Tampa Bay | 5 | 52 | 23.5 | |||
Washington | Dallas | -1 | 45 | 23 | |||
Dallas | Washington | 1 | 45 | 22 | |||
Carolina | New Orleans | 6.5 | 50 | 21.75 | |||
San Francisco | New England | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
Jacksonville | LA Chargers | 7.5 | 49 | 20.75 | |||
NY Giants | Philadelphia | 4.5 | 44.5 | 20 | |||
Chicago | LA Rams | 6 | 45 | 19.5 | |||
Denver | Kansas City | 7 | 44 | 18.5 | |||
NY Jets | Buffalo | 10 | 46 | 18 | |||
Minnesota | BYE | ||||||
Miami | BYE | ||||||
Baltimore | BYE | ||||||
Indianapolis | BYE |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Chris Carson (Seahawks), Devin Singletary (Bills), Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray (Saints), Clyde Edwards-Helaire/LeVeon Bell (Chiefs), Joshua Kelley/Justin Jackson (Chargers)
- Receivers: Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Greg Olsen (Seahawks)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Josh Allen (Bills), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Drew Brees (Saints), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Justin Herbert (Chargers), Tom Brady (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), Todd Gurley (Falcons), Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Robert Tonyan Jr (Packers), Stefon Diggs/John Brown/Cole Beasley (Bills), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Hayden Hurst (Falcons), Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Jared Cook (Saints), Tyreek Hill/Demarcus Robinson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Hunter Henry (Chargers), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Bills
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Baker Mayfield (Browns), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Deshaun Watson (Texans)
- Running Back: Kareem Hunt (Browns), Adrian Peterson/DAndre Swift (Lions), Kenyan Drake (Cardinals), David Johnson (Texans)
- Receivers: Odell Beckham/Jarvis Landry/Austin Hooper (Browns), Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones/T.J. Hockenson (Lions), DAndre Hopkins/Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), Will Fuller/Brandin Cooks/Randall Cobb/Darren Fells (Texans)
- Defense: Chiefs, Rams