Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated Sunday, October 11th @ 7 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Las Vegas | -12 | 55 | 33.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Seattle | Minnesota | -7 | 57 | 32 | ««« | ««« | |
Baltimore | Cincinnati | -12 | 50.5 | 31.25 | ««« | ««« | « |
Dallas | NY Giants | -8.5 | 53.5 | 31 | ««« | ««« | |
Houston | Jacksonville | -5.5 | 54.5 | 30 | ««« | ««« | |
San Francisco | Miami | -7.5 | 51 | 29.25 | «« | ««« | « |
New Orleans | LA Chargers | -8 | 50 | 29 | «« | ««« | |
Atlanta | Carolina | -2 | 54 | 28 | «« | «« | |
Arizona | NY Jets | -7 | 47.5 | 27.25 | « | «« | |
New England | Denver | -5 | 48.5 | 26.75 | « | « | |
LA Rams | Washington | -7 | 46 | 26.5 | « | «« | « |
Carolina | Atlanta | 2 | 54 | 26 | « | « | |
Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | -7 | 44 | 25.5 | « | ||
Minnesota | Seattle | 7 | 57 | 25 | |||
Buffalo | Tennessee | -1 | 49 | 25 | |||
Tampa Bay | Chicago | -5.5 | 44 | 24.75 | « | ||
Jacksonville | Houston | 5.5 | 54.5 | 24.5 | |||
Indianapolis | Cleveland | 0 | 48 | 24 | |||
Tennessee | Buffalo | 1 | 49 | 24 | |||
Cleveland | Indianapolis | 0 | 48 | 24 | |||
NY Giants | Dallas | 8.5 | 53.5 | 22.5 | |||
Denver | New England | 5 | 48.5 | 21.75 | |||
Miami | San Francisco | 7.5 | 51 | 21.75 | |||
Las Vegas | Kansas City | 12 | 55 | 21.5 | |||
LA Chargers | New Orleans | 8 | 50 | 21 | |||
NY Jets | Arizona | 7 | 47.5 | 20.25 | |||
Washington | LA Rams | 7 | 46 | 19.5 | |||
Chicago | Tampa Bay | 5.5 | 44 | 19.25 | |||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | 12 | 50.5 | 19.25 | |||
Philadelphia | Pittsburgh | 7 | 44 | 18.5 |
Bye weeks: Green Bay & Detroit
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Deshaun Watson (Texans)
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Mark Ingram/J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards (Ravens), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), David Johnson (Texans), Alvin Kamara (Saints), Damien Harris/Rex Burkhead (Patriots)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Marquise Brown/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Greg Olsen (Seahawks), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), Brandin Cooks/Will Fuller/Jordan Akins (Texans)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Cam Newton (Patriots), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Todd Gurley (Falcons), Jerick McKinnon (49ers), Kenyan Drake (Cardinals), Darrell Henderson/Malcolm Brown (Rams)
- Receivers: Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Jared Cook (Saints), Julian Edelman/Damiere Byrd/NKeal Harry (Patriots), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Hayden Hurst (Falcons)
- Defense: None
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Nick Mullens (49ers), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Jared Goff (Rams)
- Running Back: None
- Receivers: Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk/George Kittle (49ers), DeAndre Hopkins/Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee (Rams)
- Defense: Rams, Ravens, Steelers, Buccaneers, 49ers