Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Updated Sunday, September 20th @ 8 AM (EST)
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Dallas | Atlanta | -3.5 | 53.5 | 28.5 | ««« | ««« | |
Baltimore | Houston | -7 | 49.5 | 28.25 | ««« | ««« | |
Tampa Bay | Carolina | -8.5 | 47.5 | 28 | ««« | ««« | « |
Kansas City | LA Chargers | -8.5 | 47.5 | 28 | ««« | ««« | « |
Green Bay | Detroit | -6 | 50 | 28 | ««« | ««« | |
New Orleans | Las Vegas | -5.5 | 49 | 27.25 | «« | «« | |
Arizona | Washington | -7 | 46.5 | 26.75 | «« | ««« | « |
Indianapolis | Minnesota | -3 | 49 | 26 | «« | «« | |
Tennessee | Jacksonville | -7.5 | 44 | 25.75 | « | «« | «« |
Cleveland | Cincinnati | -6 | 44 | 25 | « | « | « |
Atlanta | Dallas | 3.5 | 53.5 | 25 | « | « | |
San Francisco | NY Jets | -7 | 41.5 | 24.25 | « | «« | «« |
Seattle | New England | -4 | 44.5 | 24.25 | « | « | |
Chicago | NY Giants | -5.5 | 42 | 23.75 | « | ||
Buffalo | Miami | -5.5 | 42 | 23.75 | «« | ||
Pittburgh | Denver | -6.5 | 40.5 | 23.5 | «« | ||
Philadelphia | LA Rams | -1.5 | 45.5 | 23.5 | |||
Minnesota | Indianapolis | 3 | 49 | 23 | |||
LA Rams | Philadelphia | 1.5 | 45.5 | 22 | |||
Detroit | Green Bay | 6 | 50 | 22 | |||
Las Vegas | New Orleans | 5.5 | 49 | 21.75 | |||
Houston | Baltimore | 7 | 49.5 | 21.25 | |||
New England | Seattle | 4 | 44.5 | 20.25 | |||
Washington | Arizona | 7 | 46.5 | 19.75 | |||
LA Chargers | Kansas City | 8.5 | 47.5 | 19.5 | |||
Carolina | Tampa Bay | 8.5 | 47.5 | 19.5 | |||
Cincinnati | Cleveland | 6 | 44 | 19 | |||
NY Giants | Chicago | 5.5 | 42 | 18.25 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | 5.5 | 42 | 18.25 | |||
Jacksonville | Tennessee | 7.5 | 44 | 18.25 | |||
NY Jets | San Francisco | 7 | 41.5 | 17.25 | |||
Denver | Pittburgh | 6.5 | 40.5 | 17 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Drew Brees (Saints), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Tom Brady (Buccaneers), Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram/J.K. Dobbins (Ravens), Alvin Kamara (Saints), Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Ronald Jones II (Buccaneers), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Kenyan Drake (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Marquise Brown/Miles Boykin/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Jared Cook (Saints), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/CeeDee Lamb/Dalton Schultz (Cowboys), Mike Evans/Chris Godwin/O.J. Howard/Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers), Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs),
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
- Running Back: Aaron Jones (Packers), Derrick Henry (Titans), Raheem Mostert (49ers), Benny Snell (Steelers)
- Receivers: Davante Adams/Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Allen Lazard (Packers), DeAndre Hopkins/Larry Fitzgerald/Christian Kirk (Cardinals)
- Defense: Titans, Steelers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Philip Rivers (Colts), Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Baker Mayfield (Browns), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: Jonathan Taylor/Nyheim Hines (Colts), Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt (Browns), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Todd Gurley (Falcons)
- Receivers: T.Y. Hilton/Parris Campbell/Jack Doyle (Colts), A.J. Brown/Corey Davis/Adam Humphries/Jonnu Smith (Titans), Kendrick Bourne/Trent Taylor/George Kittle (49ers), Odell Beckham/Jarvis Landry/Austin Hooper (Browns), JuJu Smith-Schuster/Diontae Johnson/James Washington/Eric Ebron (Steelers), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Greg Olsen (Seahawks), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Russell Gage/Hayden Hurst (Falcons)
- Defense: Bills, 49ers, Bears, Browns, Chiefs, Cardinals, Buccaneers