Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
UPDATED SUNDAY, DECEMBER 6TH @ 6 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Denver | -13.5 | 50.5 | 32 | ««« | ««« | « |
Minnesota | Jacksonville | -10 | 51.5 | 30.75 | ««« | ««« | |
Green Bay | Philadelphia | -9 | 49.5 | 29.25 | «« | ««« | « |
Seattle | NY Giants | -11 | 47 | 29 | «« | ««« | « |
Tennessee | Cleveland | -4.5 | 52.5 | 28.5 | «« | «« | |
Las Vegas | NY Jets | -7.5 | 46.5 | 27 | « | «« | « |
Indianapolis | Houston | -3 | 50.5 | 26.75 | « | « | |
Miami | Cincinnati | -10.5 | 42 | 26.25 | « | «« | ««« |
Baltimore | Dallas | -7.5 | 44.5 | 26 | « | «« | « |
LA Rams | Arizona | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | |||
Pittsburgh | Washington | -7 | 43 | 25 | «« | ||
New Orleans | Atlanta | -3 | 46 | 24.5 | |||
LA Chargers | New England | -1.5 | 47 | 24.25 | |||
Cleveland | Tennessee | 4.5 | 52.5 | 24 | |||
Chicago | Detroit | -3 | 45 | 24 | |||
San Francisco | Buffalo | -1 | 47 | 24 | |||
Houston | Indianapolis | 3 | 50.5 | 23.75 | |||
Buffalo | San Francisco | 1 | 47 | 23 | |||
New England | LA Chargers | 1.5 | 47 | 22.75 | |||
Arizona | LA Rams | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
Atlanta | New Orleans | 3 | 46 | 21.5 | |||
Detroit | Chicago | 3 | 45 | 21 | |||
Jacksonville | Minnesota | 10 | 51.5 | 20.75 | |||
Philadelphia | Green Bay | 9 | 49.5 | 20.25 | |||
NY Jets | Las Vegas | 7.5 | 46.5 | 19.5 | |||
Denver | Kansas City | 13.5 | 50.5 | 18.5 | |||
Dallas | Baltimore | 7.5 | 44.5 | 18.5 | |||
NY Giants | Seattle | 11 | 47 | 18 | |||
Washington | Pittsburgh | 7 | 43 | 18 | |||
Cincinnati | Miami | 10.5 | 42 | 15.75 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Kirk Cousins (Vikings)
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Chris Carson/Carlos Hyde (Seahawks), Aaron Jones (Packers)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson (Vikings)
- Defense: Dolphins
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
- Running Back: Derrick Henry (Titans), Josh Jacobs (Raiders), Myles Gaskin (Dolphins), J.K Dobbins/Gus Edwards/Mark Ingram (Ravens)
- Receivers: A.J. Brown/Corey Davis/Jonnu Smith (Titans), DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett/David Moore (Seahawks), Davante Adams/Allen Lazard/Robert Tonyan Jr (Packers)
- Defense: Steelers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Derek Carr (Raiders), Philip Rivers (Colts), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Running Back: Jonathan Taylor (Colts)
- Receivers: Henry Ruggs/Nelson Agholor/Darren Waller (Raiders), T.Y. Hilton/Michael Pittman/Trey Burton (Colts), DeVante Parker/Jakeem Grant/Mike Gesicki (Dolphins), Marquise Brown/Willie Snead/Mark Andrews (Ravens)