Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated Sunday, November 22nd @ 6 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Las Vegas | -9 | 56.5 | 32.75 | ««« | ««« | |
Seattle | Arizona | -3 | 57 | 30 | ««« | ««« | |
Pittsburgh | Jacksonville | -10.5 | 46 | 28.25 | «« | ««« | «« |
Baltimore | Tennessee | -6 | 50.5 | 28.25 | « | « | |
LA Chargers | NY Jets | -9.5 | 46.5 | 28 | « | «« | « |
Minnesota | Dallas | -7 | 48.5 | 27.75 | « | «« | |
Arizona | Seattle | 3 | 57 | 27 | « | « | |
New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | 49.5 | 26.5 | « | « | |
Indianapolis | Green Bay | -1.5 | 51.5 | 26.5 | « | « | |
Tampa Bay | LA Rams | -4.5 | 48 | 26.25 | « | « | |
New England | Houston | -2.5 | 49 | 25.75 | |||
Green Bay | Indianapolis | 1.5 | 51.5 | 25 | |||
Cleveland | Philadelphia | -2.5 | 47 | 24.75 | |||
Miami | Denver | -3.5 | 46 | 24.75 | |||
Detroit | Carolina | -2.5 | 47 | 24.75 | |||
Washington | Cincinnati | -1 | 47.5 | 24.25 | |||
Las Vegas | Kansas City | 9 | 56.5 | 23.75 | |||
Houston | New England | 2.5 | 49 | 23.25 | |||
Cincinnati | Washington | 1 | 47.5 | 23.25 | |||
Atlanta | New Orleans | 3.5 | 49.5 | 23 | |||
Carolina | Detroit | 2.5 | 47 | 22.25 | |||
Philadelphia | Cleveland | 2.5 | 47 | 22.25 | |||
Tennessee | Baltimore | 6 | 50.5 | 22.25 | |||
LA Rams | Tampa Bay | 4.5 | 48 | 21.75 | |||
Denver | Miami | 3.5 | 46 | 21.25 | |||
Dallas | Minnesota | 7 | 48.5 | 20.75 | |||
NY Jets | LA Chargers | 9.5 | 46.5 | 18.5 | |||
Jacksonville | Pittsburgh | 10.5 | 46 | 17.75 | |||
Buffalo | BYE | ||||||
Chicago | BYE | ||||||
NY Giants | BYE | ||||||
San Francisco | BYE |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire/LeVeon Bell (Chiefs), Chris Carson (Seahawks), James Conner (Steelers)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett/Greg Olsen (Seahawks)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Jameis Winston (Saints)
- Running Back: Alvin Kamara (Saints), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Austin Ekeler (Chargers)
- Receivers: JuJu Smith-Schuster/Diontae Johnson/Chase Claypool/Eric Ebron (Steelers), Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/Jared Cook (Saints)
- Defense: Steelers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Justin Herbert (Chargers), Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Philip Rivers (Colts)
- Running Back: Gus Edwards/J.K. Dobbins (Ravens), Kenyan Drake (Cardinals), Jonathan Taylor (Colts)
- Receivers: Marquise Brown/Willie Snead/Mark Andrews (Ravens), Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Keenan Allen/Mike Williams/Hunter Henry (Chargers), DeAndre Hopkins/Christian Kirk/Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), T.Y. Hilton/Zach Pascal/Trey Burton (Colts)
- Defense: Chargers