Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
[Blue font indicates games *not* on the DFS main slate.]
Updated on Sunday, September 13th @ 7 AM (EST)
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
Kansas City | Houston | -9.5 | 54 | 31.75 | ««« | ««« | |
Baltimore | Cleveland | -7.5 | 47.5 | 27.5 | «« | ««« | « |
San Francisco | Arizona | -7 | 48 | 27.5 | «« | ««« | « |
Dallas | LA Rams | -2 | 51.5 | 26.75 | «« | «« | |
Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8 | 45 | 26.5 | «« | ««« | « |
Pittsburgh | NY Giants | -6 | 46 | 26 | «« | «« | |
New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -3.5 | 47.5 | 25.5 | « | « | |
Las Vegas | Carolina | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | « | « | |
Seattle | Atlanta | -1.5 | 49 | 25.25 | « | « | |
LA Rams | Dallas | 2 | 51.5 | 24.75 | « | « | |
New England | Miami | -7 | 41.5 | 24.25 | « | «« | « |
Atlanta | Seattle | 1.5 | 49 | 23.75 | |||
LA Chargers | Cincinnati | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||
Philadelphia | Washington | -5 | 42 | 23.5 | « | ||
Minnesota | Green Bay | -2.5 | 44.5 | 23.5 | |||
Buffalo | NY Jets | -6.5 | 39.5 | 23 | «« | ||
Detroit | Chicago | -2.5 | 42.5 | 22.5 | |||
Carolina | Las Vegas | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
Houston | Kansas City | 9.5 | 54 | 22.25 | |||
Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 3.5 | 47.5 | 22 | |||
Tennessee | Denver | -3 | 41 | 22 | |||
Green Bay | Minnesota | 2.5 | 44.5 | 21 | |||
Arizona | San Francisco | 7 | 48 | 20.5 | |||
Cincinnati | LA Chargers | 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | |||
NY Giants | Pittsburgh | 6 | 46 | 20 | |||
Chicago | Detroit | 2.5 | 42.5 | 20 | |||
Cleveland | Baltimore | 7.5 | 47.5 | 20 | |||
Denver | Tennessee | 3 | 41 | 19 | |||
Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 8 | 45 | 18.5 | |||
Washington | Philadelphia | 5 | 42 | 18.5 | |||
Miami | New England | 7 | 41.5 | 17.25 | |||
NY Jets | Buffalo | 6.5 | 39.5 | 16.5 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs), Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
- Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs), Mark Ingram (Ravens), Raheem Mostert (49ers), Marlon Mack (Colts)
- Receivers: Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins/Mecole Hardman/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Marquise Brown/Miles Boykin/Mark Andrews (Ravens)
- Defense: None
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Drew Brees (Saints), Philip Rivers (Colts)
- Running Back: Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys), Alvin Kamara (Saints)
- Receivers: Kendrick Bourne/Trent Taylor/George Kittle (49ers), Amari Cooper/Michael Gallup/CeeDee Lamb/Blake Jarwin (Cowboys), Michael Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders/TreQuan Smith/Jared Cook (Saints), T.Y. Hilton/Michael Pittman/Parris Campbell/Jack Doyle (Colts)
- Defense: Bills
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Carson Wentz (Eagles), Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Cam Newton (Patriots), Kirk Cousins (Vikings), Jared Goff (Rams), Derek Carr (Raiders), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: James Conner (Steelers), Miles Sanders (Eagles), Chris Carson (Seahawks), Damien Harris/Sony Michel (Patriots), Dalvin Cook (Vikings), Cam Akers (Rams), Josh Jacobs (Raiders), Todd Gurley (Falcons)
- Receivers: JuJu Smith-Schuster/Diontae Johnson/James Washington/Eric Ebron (Steelers), DeSean Jackson/Greg Ward/Dallas Goedert/Zach Ertz (Eagles), Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Greg Olsen (Seahawks), Julian Edelman/NKeal Harry/Mohamed Sanu/Devin Asiasi (Patriots), Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Tyler Higbee (Rams), Tyrell Williams/Henry Ruggs/Bryan Edwards/Darren Waller (Raiders), Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley/Russel Gage/Hayden Hurst (Falcons)
- Defense: Patriots, Colts, Eagles, 49ers, Ravens