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In recent years, positional scarcity has been a key component of fantasy football analysis and draft preparation. Putting a premium on positions that required only one starter per week leaves fantasy GMs with little margin for error at the flex-eligible spots that require multiple starters.
That's why articles like this one for quarterbacks were written last year and refreshed this year with 2020-specific selections. Much of the case for drafting quarterbacks late applies to tight ends as well.
These are the reasons why the late-round quarterback and tight end strategies work:
- Positional Scarcity
- Flat Scoring Distribution at Quarterback and Tight End
- Quarterback and Tight End are Predictable Positions
- Quarterback and Tight End are Replaceable Positions
Please note that all assumptions in this article are based on typical league setups (i.e. leagues with 18 or fewer roster spots that allow only one tight end starter).
Positional Scarcity
Here are the starting players in a 12-team fantasy league vs. how many available NFL starters there are at each position.
Position
|
Fantasy Starters
|
NFL Starters*
|
TE
|
12
|
24
|
RB
|
24-36
|
48
|
WR
|
36-48
|
52
|
* The "NFL Starters" column assumes that certain passing offenses aren't palatable in typical leagues (hence the reduction from 32 at tight end and 64 at receiver) and makes assumptions that some committee/third-down running backs are fantasy relevant (thus, a number greater than 32).
From last year:
At the risk of over-simplifying things, which position seems least important? Here are the same numbers presented in a non-football way. Let's say you're hosting a barbecue, and your grocery list consists of 12 sides and 30 hamburgers. Your local grocery store is running out of stock as you and 11 other people enter the store. Which of the following are you going to pick up first?
- 12 sides when 30 are available
- 30 burgers when 48 are available
Apologies to any vegetarians out there, but even a non-meat eater should understand the supply and demand here.
Takeaway: fantasy leagues require fewer tight end starters while more are available, making it a position with high supply and low demand.
Flat Scoring Distribution
Below is a chart of tight end scoring over the past three seasons from TE1 to TE20.
Note: the TE8, TE12, and TE16 data points have been enlarged for emphasis.
And here's a table that shows the difference between a middling starter and a backup at various positions.
Positional Ranking
|
Fantasy Points per Game Delta
|
TE 4 to TE 12
|
-3.9
|
TE 4 to TE 20
|
-5.5
|
RB 4 to RB 24
|
-6.9
|
RB 8 to RB 48
|
-9.4
|
WR 4 to WR 24
|
-3.2
|
WR 8 to WR 48
|
-5.6
|
The difference between a high-end starter at tight end (TE4) and a tight end who shouldn't even be rostered (TE20) is 5.5 fantasy points per game. Conversely, the drop-off from a middling RB1 (RB8) to a bench player (RB48) is 9.4 fantasy points per game.
Takeaway: tight end scoring is flat, and scoring at the other positions drops off drastically.
Predictable Scoring
This is where the foundation of the late-round strategy for quarterbacks and tight ends differs slightly. The quarterbacks column mentioned that passers have insulated volume due to today's pass-happy NFL. Tight ends are not afforded that same luxury, which makes the position harder to predict on a week-to-week basis.
The tight end position is still predictable, albeit in a different way. For draft purposes, identifying the right late-round tight end targets can be more predictable than projecting week-to-week volume and production. Unique athleticism and questionable team target shares have applied to the following recent late-round tight end breakouts.
- Mark Andrews (2019)
- Darren Waller (2019)
- George Kittle (2018)
- Eric Ebron (2018)
- Evan Engram (2017)
My colleague Phil Alexander has examined potential tight end breakouts in each of the past three seasons using past production, athleticism, and projected target share as key factors to identify breakouts. Phil was all over Kittle's 2018 breakout and Andrews' 2019 emergence. This season's version of Phil's late-round targets list published last month, and it's excellent work as usual.
Takeaway: tight end production is hard to predict on a week-to-week basis, but using athleticism and unclear target projections helps to identify late-round targets.
Replaceable Production
At quarterback, the waiver wire offers the safety that makes a busted draft pick inconsequential. Because tight ends don't have the same level of week-to-week predictability, the replaceability argument isn't quite as strong. But that is mitigated by the fact that the position is lower scoring than quarterbacks.
Below is a look at how quarterbacks and tight ends compare.
Description
|
Fantasy Points per Game
|
2017-2019 QB4
|
24.1
|
2017-2019 QB8
|
22.5
|
2017-2019 QB12
|
21.0
|
2017-2019 TE4
|
13.3
|
2017-2019 TE8
|
11.0
|
2017-2019 TE12
|
9.5
|
Rent-a-Quarterback proved that fantasy GMs who exclusively use the waiver wire for their starting quarterback can achieve 22-24 fantasy points per week (QB6-QB9 production). While that might not be an easy feat at tight end, the downside is capped because the position's impact is much smaller to the lineup as a whole. And while the predictability of tight ends is less than quarterbacks, the Positional Scarcity argument showed that the volume of available options is nearly the same.
Takeaway: there's no need to worry about a tight end "busting" as a draft pick. Take multiple late-round shots and use the waiver wire if they fail.
The Takeaways
- Tight end is a position with high supply and low demand.
- Tight end scoring is flat; scoring at the flex-eligible positions drops off drastically.
- Using athleticism and unclear target projections helps to identify late-round tight end targets.
- Aim for upside with multiple late-round shots and use the waiver wire if they fail.
Drafting any tight end who doesn't have top-five upside is a wasted pick. And the earlier the pick is made, the greater the ramifications to the rest of the roster (i.e. the benefit lost of selecting a flex-eligible player in an earlier round). When a tight end selected late realizes his high-end outcome, the fantasy GMs who rostered him have a significant advantage over their leaguemates.
Actionable Advice
Below are the best candidates being selected in Round 9 or later to emerge into every-week starters, listed in order of current average draft position.
- Noah Fant - Fant's athleticism is off the charts. He ranks in the 96th percentile or higher in the 40-yard dash, speed score, agility score, burst score, and catch radius according to PlayerProfiler.com. The team drafted Jerry Jeudy at wide receiver, but Fant's target volume should be safe as Denver rarely used running backs in the passing game last season.
- Mike Gesicki - The recent trade of Adam Shaheen to Chicago isn't worrisome. If anything, it should keep Gesicki's price modest. Shaheen is a project, and even if he gets on the field, it will be as the second tight end while Gesicki is used off the line. Gesicki has wide receiver skills, and this team lacks established receivers.
- Irv Smith - Smith runs a 4.6 40-yard dash and caught 44 passes with 7 touchdowns on a 2018 Alabama team where he shared targets with Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. With Stefon Diggs gone and Kyle Rudolph aging, Smith has a chance to see a significant increase in targets.
- Ian Thomas - He has the athletic profile, but the path to targets isn't clear with Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, and Curtis Samuel in the mix.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com