This article is about a 6-minute read.
Selecting quarterbacks late in fantasy football is far from revolutionary. But with high-upside quarterbacks climbing the ranks and tempting fantasy managers to select them early, consider this article a reminder that the late-round quarterback strategy is built on years of data and can still work in 2020. Last year's version of this article had Lamar Jackson as the cover boy (nailed it!) but also mentioned Cam Newton (not so much), Kyler Murray (yes, sir), and Dak Prescott (incredible value). For more detail on why it's worth waiting to select a quarterback, please go back to last year and view the graphs and charts.
As mentioned last year, these are the reasons why the late-round quarterback strategy works:
- Positional Scarcity
- Flat Scoring Distribution at Quarterback
- Quarterback is a Predictable Position
- Quarterback is a Replaceable Position
Please note that all assumptions in this article are based on typical league setups (i.e. one-quarterback leagues with 18 or fewer roster spots).
Positional Scarcity
Here are the starting players in a 12-team fantasy league vs. how many available NFL starters there are at each position.
Position | Fantasy Starters | NFL Starters* |
QB | 12 | 24 |
RB | 24-36 | 48 |
WR | 36-48 | 52 |
* The "NFL Starters" column assumes that certain passing offenses aren't palatable in typical leagues (hence the reduction from 32 at quarterback and 64 at receiver) and makes assumptions that committee/third-down running backs are fantasy relevant (thus, a number greater than 32).
From last year:
At the risk of over-simplifying things, which position seems least important? Here are at the same numbers presented in a non-football way. Let's say you're hosting a barbecue, and your grocery list consists of 12 sides and 30 hamburgers. Your local grocery store is running out of stock as you and 11 other people enter the store. Which of the following are you going to pick up first?
- 12 sides when 30 are available
- 30 burgers when 48 are available
Apologies to any vegetarians out there, but even a non-meat eater should understand the supply and demand here.
Takeaway: fantasy leagues require fewer quarterback starters while more are available, making it a position with high supply and low demand.
Flat Scoring Distribution
Below is a chart of quarterback scoring over the past three seasons from QB1 to QB20.
Note: the QB8, QB12, and QB16 data points have been enlarged for emphasis.
And here's a table that shows the difference between a middling starter and a backup at various positions.
Positional Ranking | Fantasy Points per Game Delta |
QB 4 to QB 12 | -3.1 |
QB 4 to QB 20 | -5.5 |
RB 4 to RB 24 | -11.3 |
RB 8 to RB 48 | -13.5 |
WR 4 to WR 24 | -7.0 |
WR 8 to WR 48 | -9.4 |
The difference between a high-end starter at quarterback (QB4) and a quarterback who shouldn't even be rostered (QB20) is only 5.5 fantasy points per game. Conversely, the drop-off from a middling RB1 (RB8) to a bench player (RB48) is 13.5 fantasy points per game.
Takeaway: quarterback scoring is flat, and scoring at the other positions drops off drastically.
Predictable Scoring
Forecasting positional players requires analysis of Xs and Os, game script, and many other factors. But in today's pass-heavy NFL, quarterback volume is more predictable. And unlike position players, quarterbacks play against an entire defense. Bad passing defenses are both identifiable and exploitable. There's a reason why DFS cash game advice centers around cheap quarterbacks.
The correlation between matchup and production is stronger at quarterback is stronger than at any other position. And with most NFL teams passing 25 or more times per game, quarterbacks have insulated volume.
Takeaway: of all fantasy football positions, quarterback is the easiest to predict on a week-to-week basis.
Replaceable Production
Quarterback scoring is flat, quarterbacks are predictable, but why is the title of the article "Upside Only?" Because the most fun part of drafting quarterbacks is the safety that comes with the best backup quarterback in fantasy football history: the waiver wire.
For the past two seasons, Footballguys has published the "Rent-a-Quarterback" series every Tuesday during the regular season. The intent of this series was to identify waiver wire quarterbacks with top-12 positional upside that week. The results suggest that using a different quarterback each week is a viable strategy.
Description | Fantasy Points per Game |
2017-2019 QB9 | 22.1 |
2019 Rent-a-Quarterback (final results here) | 22.1 |
2017-2019 QB12 | 21.0 |
2017-2019 QB16 | 20.2 |
Last year's average waiver picks were equivalent to a QB9 weekly ranking. It's not shown above, but the weekly average finish for the best pick of each week was QB6.
Takeaway: there's no need to worry about a quarterback "busting" as a draft pick. The production of an average starter is available for free.
The Takeaways
- Quarterback is a position with high supply and low demand.
- Quarterback scoring is flat; scoring at the flex-eligible positions drops off drastically.
- Quarterback is the easiest of all positions to predict on a week-to-week basis.
- The waiver wire is a viable contingency plan at quarterback.
Drafting any quarterback who doesn't have top-three upside is a wasted pick. And the earlier the pick is made, the greater the ramifications to the rest of the roster (i.e. the benefit lost of selecting a flex-eligible player in an earlier round). When a quarterback selected late realizes his high-end outcome, the fantasy GMs who rostered him have a significant advantage over their leaguemates.
Actionable Advice
The fantasy football market caught on to the late-round quarterback strategy a few years ago, but now it's catching on to the ideal late-round quarterback profile. Quarterbacks like Murray and Prescott being selected in the top half-dozen at the position illustrate that fantasy GMs are looking for rushing ability with as much priority -- or more -- as passing ability.
But the strategy remains sound, and the cupboard hasn't been left bare. Below are the best candidates being selected in Round 9 or later to emerge into every-week starters, listed in order of current average draft position.
- Josh Allen - Worries that Allen's passing volume would increase and hurt his rushing production were quelled in 2019. Allen surpassed his 2018 passing total by more than 1,000 yards and threw 10 more touchdowns while also increasing his rushing production.
- Daniel Jones - Jones had four top-five weekly finishes after being named the starter in Week 3 (fewer than only Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Jameis Winston).
- Joe Burrow - Cincinnati's coaching staff increased play volume last season, and Burrow is the unquestioned starter. He can also add fantasy value by running and has better weapons than a typical league-worst team.
- Teddy Bridgewater - He lacks the rushing potential and ability to make big plays deep with his receivers that late-round quarterbacks typically need. But Bridgewater has the alignment with his low-aDOT receivers and the bad-defense-enhanced passing game volume to surprise fantasy managers this year.
Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome via e-mail hester@footballguys.com