articles

The Top 10 Week 15

Matt Waldman's Top 10 examines the fantasy implications of Week 14 performances including T.Y. Hilton's re-emergence, the Dolphins' overestimation of Patrick Mahomes, the Saints' underestimation of Jalen Hurts, and the Fresh Catch that is the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. 

By Matt Waldman
December 14, 2020
The Top 10 Week 15
Photo: Brian Spurlock, USA Today Sports
Underdog Fantasy Deposit Match

Mission

The mission of this column—and a lot of my work—is to bridge the gap between fantasy and reality of football analysis. Football analysis—fantasy and reality—is often dramatized because there's a core belief that it's more important to entertain than to educate.

I don't live by the idea that it's better to be lucky than good. While I want to give you actionable recommendations that will help you get results, I prefer to get the process right. There will be a lot of people talking about how they were right to draft or start specific players. Many of them got the right result but with an unsustainable process.

The Top 10 will cover topics that attempt to get the process right (reality) while understanding that fantasy owners may not have time to wait for the necessary data to determine the best course of action (fantasy). Still, this work may help you make wiser decisions that will help your team in the long run.

As always, I recommend Sigmund Bloom's Waiver Wire piece which you'll find available on this page, Monday night. Bloom and I are not always going to agree on players—he errs more often towards players who flash elite athletic ability and I err more towards players who are more technically skilled and assignment-sound.

STRAIGHT, NO CHASER: WEEK 14'S CLIFF'S NOTES

The article below will provide expanded thoughts and supporting visuals for the following points.

  1. Fresh Fish Catch of the Week: The Steelers offense is the weakness of this 11-2 team and specifically the offensive line and running backs.
  2. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles upset the Saints, and Hurts' performance is indicative of what happens when a skilled-enough quarterback faces a defense that doesn't have enough game film of him.
  3. Lynn Bowden Jr showed his promise against the Chiefs at the position where he belongs and not what the Raiders drafted him to do.
  4. Miami might have beaten Kansas City if it didn't underestimate Mahomes and the Chiefs' capacity to beat the Dolphins' pressure packages.
  5. Cam Akers had a productive week but, for the third time, it's worth showing how much of the production is Akers, how much of it is surrounding talent and scheme. Akers will likely turn the corner and become a top-15 fantasy running back, but he's not there yet and there's potential for him not to get there.
  6. A.J. Brown displayed the essence of excellent technique as a pass-catcher. It is also why his occasional drops shouldn't bother you.
  7. In terms of fantasy production, T.Y. Hilton is back. But for how long and it depends on the return of Philip Rivers and I'm not sure that's 100 percent good for Hilton.
  8. There are a number of skills that make quality starting receivers. One of them is the ability to execute the pull-down in difficult scenarios. I show how Travis Kelce, Allen Robinson, T.Y. Hilton, and Jared Cook do the job.
  9. One play from Derrick Henry reveals the advanced link between his vision and footwork in contrast to younger players like Anthony McFarland.
  10. Fresh Fish: The Raiders' defensive backs and the Texans' back-seven of its defense.

1. Fresh Fish Catch of the Week: James Conner and the Steelers Offensive Line

I don't normally begin the feature with a Fresh Fish Catch of the Week, but considering the magnitude of the Sunday night game on the NFL playoffs and that catch is a significant part of the Steelers' nucleus, well, I can't resist. As Sigmund Bloom pointed out on Twitter this afternoon, the Steelers offensive line is now a finesse unit.

Considering that the Chiefs offensive line mauled the Bills defense with its run game roughly eight weeks ago and the Chiefs can't consistently run the football, it's telling how bad the Steelers' run game and the offensive line really is. After a strong September against weakened units like the Giants, Broncos, and Texans (all among the top-13 most generous units against the run), Pittsburgh can't run the football anymore.

They've failed against some of the most generous units against the run in the league, including the 4th-ranked Jaguars, the 6th-ranked Cowboys, the 9th-ranked Bengals, and the 14th-ranked Bills. The Steelers rank 28th in the league in terms of points its running backs have scored this year.

After watching Pittsburgh's line underperform against the Bills, it's worth wondering if this offense will be the Achilles' heel for its playoff hopes. It was so bad, I didn't recognize that Maurkice Pouncey was healthy and starting this week. And when an offensive line doesn't open holes that it should, it creates a lack of trust from the running back.

As the game progressed, James Conner began pressing to make big plays and ignoring opportunities that were opening if he showed more advanced patience and setups. However, those are rooted in trusting the blocking up front, and to be fair, he had no reason to trust it on Sunday night or for much of the year.

Conner and Jaylen Samuel also struggled against the blitz. Conner nearly gave up a sack and Samuel gave up a 10-yard loss deep in Pittsburgh's own end of the field.

Pittsburgh is a good team that's the product of excellent defense, an above-average passing offense, and a sub-par offensive line and ground game. This is a team that will be vulnerable to blitzes in the playoffs. Buffalo, Miami, and/or Baltimore have the scheme to challenge Pittsburgh's weaknesses to the point that they become in-game limitations.

If you're playing fantasy games for the playoffs, do not count on Pittsburgh's ground game and focus more on the receivers that benefit from a quick passing attack: JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson

2. Jalen Hurts: Evidence that NFL Defenses and Coaches Have the Handling of Battleships

The Saints were going to put the hurt on Jalen Hurts. This was the conventional thought when the Eagles announced Hurts as Carson Wentz's replacement in the starting lineup. The Saints have one of the top defensive units in the league and an excellent pass rush. There are only fourth teams stingier against quarterbacks this year.

It's always worth looking at the context behind the data. Although the Saints haven't given up a 300-yard passer this year, the unit has given up multiple-touchdown games to Tom Brady, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Teddy Bridgewater, and Nick Foles. There are all starting-level quarterbacks.

New Orleans has also faced Nick Mullens and Kendall Hinton. A wide receiver from Wake Forest who arrived at Winston Salem as a quarterback but spent most of his career as a receiver, Hinton completed 1-of-9 passes for 13 yards in emergency duty in Week 12. Hinton alone inflated the Saints' performance at least seven spots in the rankings and if you consider Drew Lock as a fit for the tier above, the Saints could easily be 10-12 spots lower and a mid-tier unit.

The Saints also hadn't faced a mobile quarterback this year. These are enough reasons why Hurts and the Eagles surprised the Saints and the public on Sunday. The Eagles leveraged Hurts' skills to its advantage by moving the pocket and letting Hurts be a ball carrier.

At Oklahoma, Hurts displayed patience in the pocket and much better pocket management than Wentz when under pressure. Although the Saints defense didn't significantly test him—in fact, it didn't adjust to what Hurts did until the second half of the game, which I'll discuss more later—Hurts displayed patience in the pocket, the willingness to take punishment to hit the open receiver, and the maturity to throw the ball away when forced off-script.

This work, most of it during the first half, was enough to build an insurmountable lead for the Eagles. It could have been avoided if the Saints game-planned against Hurts rather than waited until halftime to make adjustments.

Football organizations all too often have the maneuverability of battleships. Coaches like to have weeks of game film on a player before devising a plan specifically against him. You'd think they'd look at college tape or read a scouting report to consider what the opposing offense might employ with the player.

Especially when that player, Hurts, is built like a running back, hangs well in the pocket, and has budding talent as a vertical passer. You'd think the Saints rush would be instructed to keep the edges contained while playing zone or a mix of zone and man coverage so Hurts couldn't bail outside and buy time. Instead, the Saints ran numerous end-tackle twists and gave Hurts opportunities to flush to a side and earn chunks of yards.

It wasn't until Hurts gained over 80 yards rushing on the Saints that the coaches opted to rush more than four and contain the edges of the pocket. Whether Hurts's productivity could have been easily quelled with a better game plan or there's a good reason why NFL teams don't want to generate gameplans based on so little exposures of a new quarterback or college tape, we often see young quarterbacks with a baseline level of skills surprisingly exploit defenses that are better on paper than they performed on the field.

This is worth remembering. After all, Hurts had the sixth-most fantasy points scored by a quarterback against the Saints' defense this year and he was 10th among quarterbacks in fantasy points this weekend (before Monday night).

There's a logic to considering a rookie starter at the position at this point of the season that we may be ignoring. If the player has a high enough draft capital (third round or higher) and clear strengths with the vertical passing game and running the football, and he has earned past playing time in the offense--even if it is spot-duty--you should value that player enough to use him during his first week as a starter if you're weaker at the position.

Beyond the ability to run the football more effectively than Wentz, Hurts didn't show anything that stands out when considering his long-term prospects despite having a productive week. Hurts made some rookie mistakes that you'd expect. He played a little slower than he should with quick-hitting targets against coverage in position to jump the route and he played true to an aspect of his scouting report: He has difficulties with ball security as a runner in traffic.

Arizona has an athletic defense that could contain Hurts' running more than the Saints. Budda Baker could prove a disruptive influence in this regard. If Hurts maintains his starting role throughout December, the Cowboys defense could be a gift for him in Week 16.

3. Lynn Bowden Jr Has Found A Home In Miami And at the Best Position for His Skills

The Raiders drafting Lynn Bowden Jr in the third round was one of the biggest surprises for me when I view the 2020 NFL Draft. It was an even greater surprise that Vegas drafted him as a running back. There was no way Bowden would prove a better scatback than what this team had on its depth chart, much less usurping Josh Jacobs of targets.

Bowden was on his way to becoming a viable prospect as a slot receiver when Kentucky needed him as an emergency quarterback. An excellent return specialist, Bowden showed nothing as a passer, but he understood the offense and he could run the football.

His movement, contact, balance, and open-field vision were notable positives in his pre-draft scouting report. However, running the football as a quarterback is far different than running it as a running back.

There's a lot more entailed to setting up creases and understanding blocking schemes as a running back that Bowden had no experience with doing. Add routes from the backfield and pass protection to his list of new responsibilities and it made little sense for the Raiders to transition Bowden to this role. It's why the Raiders made the right decision to trade Bowden as soon as it realized its error.

After watching Bowden in Miami, it appears this team has found its slot receiver.

Bowden also earned opportunities as a runner and run-pass option triggerman. His on-field performance is leading to a growing role this year. And while he offers legitimate options to the fantasy GM desperate for a baseline of points at the wide receiver position, Bowden's prospects are more exciting next year if the Dolphins open this offense up. And with a complete offseason for Tua Tagovailoa to work with this offense, bank on it.

4. Too Much Respect: Miami Could Have Dismantled Patrick Mahomes II And the Chiefs, But Didn't

The Dolphins defense has been beating the opposition with heavy blitz packages. This is something shared here weeks ago against the Rams. However, Miami had a healthy respect for the Chiefs' skill players and their ability to individually match-up and beat its defensive backs one-on-one.

Maybe too healthy.

At first, Miami tried to beat the Chiefs with a base pass rush. And they had some success, forcing some negative plays and turnovers.

But Miami feared rushing more than five defenders because of the match-up capabilities of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman. Especially when the quarterback has the accuracy, field-reading ability, and arm-angles of Patrick Mahomes II.

Mahomes processes the field fast enough to find the third read and deliver from tight pockets at angles most quarterbacks can't.

But Mahomes and the Chiefs proved that they are not impervious to pressure. In fact, as you watch some of the plays below, it becomes apparent that the Dolphins not only had the pressure packages to force Mahomes into more mistakes, it had enough firepower on the perimeter to match up with Hill and Kelce if pocket-pressure was part of the equation.

Here's Mahomes overthrowing Clyde Edwards-Helaire against five-man pressure.

Here's another five-man look with one dropping to shallow coverage that results in a second sack that Mahomes takes deep in his own territory.

You don't normally see Mahomes take sacks in these situations, but he mismanaged aspects of the game you don't normally see from him. And while he underthrew this red-zone target to Tyreek Hill, Xavien Howard also made an incredible play on the ball.

By the second half, the Dolphins began upping their pressure packages and slowing the Chiefs down, putting Miami in a position for a comeback.

Miami has the talent to compete this year if the coaches find the right blend of aggression and patience as a defense against the better offenses in the league. And the Chiefs' offensive line has enough holes that this offense is more vulnerable than it has been for the past two years. Vulnerable enough to make Mahomes look mortal. Still dangerous, but mortal.

5. 'But...What About Now?' File—Part III: Cam Akers, Week Three

Here we go again...

Have you changed your mind about Akers after Sunday's performance?

The short answer? No, I've regarded Akers as an incomplete masterpiece.

The longer answer? Akers benefitted from an offense that is figuring out how to leverage his current strengths, but as good as his stats were, there is still yardage left on the field that he should earn.

It's likely that the Rams have seen enough from Akers in practice that encourages them to believe he's close to taking another step with his game. However, keep what I wrote here two weeks ago for additional emphasis:

Akers needs an offseason of tutelage and practice to develop a nuanced understanding of zone blocking and the vocabulary of corresponding footwork to generate space that can be there for him if he knew what to do.

Right now, he's at his best in a gap-heavy scheme. He'd be a top-20 fantasy back for Washington or San Francisco who still left too much on the field. How much Akers can master within the next 8 months will determine his opportunity to extricate himself from a three-headed committee.

If you have Akers, I wouldn't trade him. But if you don't have Akers, I wouldn't trade for him, either.

Why? Because Akers' improvement won't come from more carries.

He needs a daily dose of film study and workouts with a coach/consultant to learn the various blocking schemes and defensive alignments used to stop these plays. While he's learning about this on tape, he must be developing footwork patterns that help him navigate these schemes and set up his blocks as well as manipulate opponents.

He needs to be practicing these scenarios regularly. This is what pro running backs do. Akers runs like a guy who was a physical phenom by college standards but hasn't learned the position in these ways.

Can he learn now? Yes, if he hires a trainer and does daily work. Will he? That's the big question and one that will determine the trajectory of his career.

I'm not down on Akers as much as I am realistic about his development timeline. I especially liked that the Rams used him more as a receiver. I've written at length about his underrated receiving skills in his 2020 RSP pre-draft scouting report.

The basis for my argument of caution against Akers long-term is more from the expectation of him succeeding Todd Gurley as an elite running back. Could he evolve into a PPR RB1 in fantasy football for a period of 2-3 years?

Yes.

Is he worth paying that price to anticipate that evolution?

I don't think so. I believe you'll see a 1-2 punch with Akers and Henderson that limits Akers' upside and you could be overpaying.

6. A.J. Brown: Baby T.O.? Baby Julio?

Maybe, my buddy, Eric Stoner is right, A.J. Brown is comparable to Terrell Owens. He calls him Baby T.O. but fortunately, Brown doesn't possess the infantile behavior born from insecurities that Owens had due to a dysfunctional childhood. But another player that comes to mind, is the player Brown admires greatly and whose jersey Brown wore before the Jacksonville game during warmups: Julio Jones.

Both Owens and Jones dropped passes, but they were often due to concentration or minor technique lapses. Brown has the same problem from time to time. However, he's also capable of excellent catches with perfect skill as well as unconventional snares rooted in great technique.

His performance against the Jaguars illustrated all of this.

Don't be surprised if Brown has a season on par with the best we've seen from Owens or Jones at some point. If Derrick Henry gets hurt and misses a season, I would consider going all-in on Brown if the Titans still have a quarterback equal or greater to Ryan Tannehill.

7. T.Y. Hilton Is Back, But for How Long?

Hilton is the 40th-ranked PPR receiver this year, but he's the No.3 receiver in these formats since Week 12. What's changed?

One might argue that the recent opponents are easier, but the Colts faced Tennessee in Week 10 and Hilton wasn't productive. When looking at the Colts' overall schedule, it's not like the Vikings, Jaguars (twice), Jets, Browns, Bengals, and Lions are significantly better pass defenses than what the Colts have seen during this three-week run against the Raiders, Titans, and Texans.

The real factors: Philip Rivers trusting Hilton in the red zone and he's finding Hilton as a vertical playmaker. Hilton has three straight weeks with a touchdown and he earned two against the Raiders. While some of these plays are against soft or error-prone coverage, the core answer is increased trust between these two veterans.

Hilton also earned a long score against a blown coverage. With Houston next on the schedule, enjoy Hilton's run for at least another week. And I wouldn't expect the Steelers to shut this rapport down in Week 16. As good as Pittsburgh is, it allows receiver points at the league average and primary options have been productive against this unit--especially options that play outside and in the slot like Hilton.

The long-term question is whether Hilton and/or Rivers will return in 2021. Both are free agents at the end of the year and Hilton might feel he still has enough left not to take a reduced salary.

Hilton has been an enormously underrated receiver for years. He's among the best tight-coverage receivers around that don't earn this credit and he still has deep speed and open-field prowess. If he and Rivers return, I have concerns about Rivers' arm and his ability to get the best from Hilton but based on the trust they're developing, I'd be more bullish about Hilton's 2021 prospects if Rivers doesn't have an additional decline that renders him into a late-career Peyton Manning (and he's close already).

A team where Hilton could shine that has a quarterback with a slightly better arm but much better off-script skill is Houston. Hilton would be an excellent fit for another year or two with the Texans.

8. The Pull-Down: A Technique to Watch with Wide Receiver Play

One of Hilton's best plays of the weekend was a touchdown that he pulled away from coverage. And the pull-down is a technique that separates top receiver prospects and pros from their peers. The pull-down is a process that involves making the catch and keeping the ball away from the reach of the defender. It can include securing the ball immediately to one's frame and turning away from the reach of the coverage or extending the ball from the opponent.

Here are some great examples of pull-down technique from Sunday from Hilton, Travis Kelce, Allen Robinson, and Jared Cook.

This is an easy technique for fantasy GMs to remember and watch for when judging the skills of a receiver in contested situations.

9. The Vision-Footwork Link: What Makes Derrick Henry Good

Good running backs understand the blocking schemes their offenses run and know how to set up their blockers and manipulate defenders in space or into the path of blockers. They know when to abandon the play design and when to stay patient with it. And when there's an unexpected obstacle that could threaten to derail the entire play early, they have the skill to address the obstacle and return to the schedule of the blocking scheme when possible.

The product of this knowledge on the field is the link between the player's eyes and his feet. If you learn about blocking schemes and the players the runner is watching before and after the snap has the play develops, you'll be able to see the link between the player's eyes and his feet.

Right now, Anthony McFarland has some links between his eyes and his feet as a gap runner and open-field runner. He has little if any link as a zone runner. In contrast, Frank Gore has a depth and breadth of vision-footwork knowledge and execution that rivals Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Ezekiel Elliott but lacks the peak physical skills to maximize what he sees at this point in his career.

Still, the way Gore and McFarland handle similar plays shows the difference between a raw rookie and a savvy veteran.

It's not surprising that Derrick Henry also has this developed link between his eyes and feet. Here's a similar play to the ones shown above and Henry handles it with the same refinement and as Gore.

Metcalf may not have great skills with breaks back to the quarterback but because of the cushion that he commands due to his speed, strength, and the violent quickness of his hands, he doesn't need it.

10. Fresh Fish: Week 14

Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for the weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd loving nothing more than our players to face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.

In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," I provide my weekly shortlist of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up. In addition to John Conner, the Steelers' running backs, and offensive line, the Raiders and Texans' defenses continue to provide satisfaction for fantasy GMs with players facing them.

You already saw the Hilton highlights against the Raiders. Here's Mitchell Trubisky having an excellent day against the Texans.

Trubisky executed well and the Bears had a good gameplan. Still, the Texans' penchant for coverage mistakes and odd coverage choices would make them even more generous if their run defense wasn't so bad.

Thanks again for all of your feedback on this column. Good luck next week and may your bold call come true.

Tags:Analysis
Footballguys Fantasy Football Discord Server

More by Matt Waldman

Roundtable Week 18: 2024 Bold Predictions

Matt Waldman, Jan 4, 2024

Roundtable Week 18: 2024 Offseason Points of Intrigue

Matt Waldman, Jan 4, 2024

Roundtable Week 18: Perception or Reality?

Matt Waldman, Jan 4, 2024

Most Recent

J.K. Dobbins Signs With The Los Angeles Chargers - Instant Reaction The Week in NFL News - 4/18 Rome Odunze Scouting Report - 2024 NFL Draft Pre Draft Bloom 100 Christian Williams' NFL Mock Draft 7.0 (Seven Rounds) Riding the Dynasty Trade Waves Gaining Advantages Through Custom Rankings Fantasy Notebook Superflex Rookie Mock Draft 2.0