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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS & PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend.
CORE PLAYS
The following players represent options that should be the most highly represented in your overall DFS portfolio this weekend; these players are viable in all contest formats.
NAME | POSITION | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | GPP STARS |
Davante Adams | WR | LAR | $8,600 | 26% | «« |
Patrick Mahomes II | QB | CLE | $8,000 | 29% | «««« |
Tyreek Hill | WR | CLE | $8,000 | 30% | ««« |
Alvin Kamara | RB | TB | $7,900 | 38% | ««« |
Travis Kelce | TE | CLE | $7,800 | 31% | «««« |
Josh Allen | QB | BAL | $7,400 | 15% | «« |
Stefon Diggs | WR | CLE | $7,300 | 37% | «« |
Aaron Jones | RB | LAR | $6,800 | 21% | «« |
Michael Thomas | WR | TB | $6,700 | 29% | «««« |
Cam Akers | RB | @GB | $5,700 | 34% | ««« |
Marquise Brown | WR | @BUF | $5,200 | 26% | «« |
Mark Andrews | TE | @BUF | $5,000 | 25% | «««« |
Devin Singletary | RB | BAL | $4,500 | 30% | «««« |
Bills | DEF | BAL | $2,900 | 14% | «« |
SUMMARY: As a general rule, I do not recommend playing cash games on short slates such as this four-game Divisional Championship weekend. The lack of diversity in the player pool leads to astounding redundancy across cash game lineups to the extent that the difference between winning and losing distills down to a few players. With that in mind, the bulk of this article has been constructed with tournaments in mind. The above table lists the most relevant players from each position, as evidenced by their respective percent-rostered numbers in the next-to-last column. At quarterback, Patrick Mahomes II and Josh Allen are going to be the most popular options and for good reason: Mahomes and Allen are averaging a shade under 28 DK points per game across the season. Mahomes has been a bit quiet of late, but benefits from the "Andy Reid after a bye week" narrative and the highest implied team total on the entire weekend. Allen plays a tough Baltimore defense, but cannot be ignored after scoring 35 or more points in 3 of his previous 4 contests. The vast majority of exposure to running backs will be spread across four of them this weekend: Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Cam Akers, and Devin Singletary. Kamara fell short of expectations against the Bears last Sunday when he just missed the 100-yard bonus (99 rushing yards) and managed only 19.6 DK points. This week, the sledding will not get any easier against the Bucs' shutdown run defense (1st in NFL; DVOA), who have allowed only one running back since Week #2 to surpass 20 DK points; Kamara is always in play, but this might be a week to focus on the Saints' passing game. In Green Bay, both running backs are going to garner attention because of recent usage and touchdown upside; Cam Akers has collected over 50 touches across the Rams' last pair of games and Aaron Jones should be expected to be heavily featured after getting a lightened load to end the season and then a bye during wild-card weekend. Jones has additional allure because Aaron Rodgers' favorite weapon (Davante Adams) is going to be contending with Jalen Ramsey (more below) all day, which could result in additional action for the fresh-legged running back. In Buffalo, do not sleep on Devin Singletary now that Zack Moss has landed on injured reserve with an ankle injury suffered last week against the Colts. Singletary is fairly priced at only $4.5K, but does stand to lose a portion of goalline opportunities to his quarterback. Looking over the wide receiver position, Davante Adams is hard to miss after the best regular season of his career, but Adams is priced up at $8.6K and will square off against Jalen Ramsey who finished second amongst qualifying cornerbacks by ProFootballFocus this season; Ramsey did not allow 50 receiving yards to any receiver in his coverage after the opening weekend of the season. It's a tough call, but I will be fading Adams in this matchup given his salary and percent-rostered projections. Instead, look to Michael Thomas, Stefon Diggs, and/or Tyreek Hill at the position. Thomas is the elite option due to his subdued popularity and lower salary in a matchup that favors the New Orleans' passing game, but Diggs and Tyreek both merit attention due to their respective team marketshare, quality quarterback play, and general ability. In Buffalo, Marquise Brown is getting some attention in DFS circles after scoring seven touchdowns across his previous seven games, but last week's 109-yard performance was his highest of the season and only the second time he surpassed 100 yards in 2020/21; with TreDavious White tailing him, it would not be surprising to see Hollywood's scoring streak come to an end in Buffalo. At defense, there is not a lot to like with all of the quality quarterback play, but the Bills top the list because of how well they match up against the Ravens and their affordable price point.
TOURNAMENT OPTIONS
These players are intended primarily for tournaments where only the top 20% of lineups win. There may be reason to use a player or two from this list for cash games, depending on your specific lineup build.
NAME | POSITION | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | GPP STARS |
Drew Brees | QB | TB | $5,600 | 7% | «««« |
Jarvis Landry | WR | @KC | $5,600 | 26% | ««« |
Antonio Brown | WR | @NO | $5,400 | 12% | ««« |
Baker Mayfield | QB | @KC | $5,300 | 11% | «« |
Leonard Fournette | RB | @NO | $4,900 | 15% | ««« |
Kareem Hunt | RB | @KC | $4,800 | 15% | «« |
John Brown | WR | BAL | $4,600 | 13% | « |
Emmanuel Sanders | WR | TB | $4,500 | 7% | «««« |
Demarcus Robinson | WR | CLE | $4,300 | 5% | ««« |
Robert Tonyan Jr | TE | LAR | $4,200 | 8% | « |
Chiefs | DEF | CLE | $3,600 | 9% | «« |
Saints | DEF | TB | $3,100 | 10% | «« |
Tyler Higbee | TE | GB | $3,000 | 15% | ««« |
SUMMARY: In this section, we will cover a few of the less popular options that could be considered for tournaments and will be featured in this author's limited lineups this weekend. First, the Saints' passing game, as discussed above, is going overlooked in a potential shootout featuring two of the league's best-ever quarterbacks, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Brees is currently projected to be on single-digit percentages of tournament lineups despite this potential shootout and his nominal $5.6K salary; he can be easily paired with Michael Thomas and/or Emmanuel Sanders, both of whom are under-rostered relative to other wide receivers with similar points per dollar projections. Similarly, the Browns' pass attack should be given consideration if you believe the Vegas boards are accurate. As 10-point road underdogs facing a Chiefs team projected to score 33.5-points, the Browns may have to reluctantly get away from Nick Chubb and see if Baker Mayfield is the big-game quarterback they drafted him to be several years ago. Mayfield is fairly cheap and will go unnoticed on a weekend with names like Mahomes, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers above him; pair him with Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, and/or Austin Hooper (listed in preference) in stacks across from at least two Chiefs to take advantage of the high-scoring potential of this game. As for running backs, you are advised to generally stick with the four options listed in the previous section, but there is reason to give next-level consideration to Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt in their respective matchups. Fournette is primed to get the start against the Saints with Ronald Jones II looking like a game-time decision; Fournette is one of those players that DFS fans love to cheer against, which makes him an excellent contrarian tournament option in an offense that could easily score 30 points. Hunt merits attention because of the pass-heavy gamescript that could ensue if the Browns-Chiefs game plays out as oddsmakers would otherwise project; he is coming off a two-touchdown game last weekend, which was quietly his fourth such game this season. Other receivers to consider? Do not sleep on Antonio Brown, whose six years' of playoff experience could come in handy on a team full of youngsters that made its first playoff appearance since 2007 last weekend. AB has scored five times in the past month and it's apparent that he and Brady are clicking on all cylinders inside the redzone. Likewise, Sammy Watkins is trending towards not playing due to a lingering calf injury, which should pave the way for Demarcus Robinson to start across from Tyreek Hill. In 4 games without Watkins earlier this season, "DRob" surpassed 60 receiving yards and/or scored in 3 of them; at only $4.3K and on a few number of competitors' rosters, he offers much-needed differentiation on a weekend of overlap. If you are getting away from Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews at tight end, Robert Tonyan Jr could see overflow targets while Davante Adams contends with Jalen Ramsey's shadow coverage and Tyler Higbee offers much needed salary relief and 4x upside at only $3.0K against the Packers, who allowed four of the last five tight ends they faced this season to score 10+ DK points. Lastly, the Chiefs are worth consideration against Baker Mayfield, who has the most "blowup potential" of any quarterback on this slate.