For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
CASH GAMES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Taysom Hill | ATL | $4,800 |
Quarterbacks: With the surprise announcement that it would be not Jameis Winston, but instead Taysom Hill, who starts for the Saints on Sunday at home against the Falcons. With an implied team total of 28-points, the Saints quarterback is primed to deliver solid fantasy production and, at $4.8K, Hill should easily deliver 3x value on his salary for cash game formats. In fact, our David Dodds projects Hill at 19.8 DK points, which is 4x his salary. In cash games, he is the best option at his position this week; in tournaments, you are advised to go underweight on him because he will be on ~ 10% of lineups. He certainly has the potential upside to deliver value on his salary, but his stacking options are suboptimal (see fades in the "Tournaments" section below). If you want to play him in tournaments, do so on FanDuel where his $4.5K salary and tight end eligibility make him an absolute must-play.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Dalvin Cook | DAL | $9,000 |
Giovani Bernard | @WAS | $5,500 |
Duke Johnson Jr | NE | $5,400 |
Adrian Peterson | @CAR | $4,000 |
Running Backs: On a points per dollar basis, Adrian Peterson is the play of the week at the running back position. With DAndre Swift watching from the sideline, Peterson gets another shot to lead the Lions backfield against the Panthers' 27th-ranked DVOA rush defense. It is worth noting that Adrian Peterson is also one of the better running back options for tournaments, as well. At the other end of the price spectrum, Dalvin Cook is the player you should build your cash games around on Sunday. Cook's $9K price tag is going to take a chunk out of your budget, but there is no expensive player on the slate who is more likely to deliver 3x value on his salary, especially given the plus gamescript as touchdown home-favorites against the 2-7 Cowboys. Elsewhere, both Gio Bernard and Duke Johnson Jr are mid-$5K options in decent spots due to bellcow roles they have absorbed as a result to injuries to Joe Mixon and David Johnson, respectively (in tournaments, however, you should steer clear of Duke Johnson Jr, whose crowd popularity has far outgrown his likelihood to reach 4x value).
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Keenan Allen | NYJ | $7,400 |
Terry McLaurin | CIN | $6,900 |
Diontae Johnson | @JAX | $5,900 |
Jakobi Meyers | @HOU | $4,900 |
Jakeem Grant | @DEN | $3,500 |
Wide Receivers: With the added value conferred by Taysom Hill and Adrian Peterson, it is possible to spend a few extra dollars on wide receivers that might have been out of reach earlier in the week. Of the available options, both Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin bring significant volume and a solid floor to your cash game builds; Allen ranks fourth and McLaurin sixth in targets this season. In Jacksonville, Diontae Johnson is also in play on the heels of three double-digit target games across since he returned from injury a month ago; he is becoming Ben Roethlisberger's favorite target in a fast-paced offense that has seen him average 42.3 attempts per game across his previous 4 games. On this week's edition of the PowerGrid, the one wide receiver that all analysts agreed on for cash games (a rarity) was Jakobi Meyers. Meyers is fairly priced at $4.9K and has clearly settled in as Cam Newton's most-trusted receiver since Julian Edelman was injured three weeks ago. Since that time, Meyers is averaging 21 DK points per game and is so integrated into Bill Belichick's offense that he even threw a touchdown last Sunday night. As for a punt option, Jakeem Grant gets the nod at $3.5K with Preston Williams still sidelined with a foot injury; in his first game as a starter without Williams, Grant collected four receptions and a score against the Chargers last week. Behind Meyers, Grant has the highest projected points per dollar value at the position.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
T.J. Hockenson | @CAR | $4,200 |
Logan Thomas | CIN | $3,300 |
Tight Ends: With Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola, and DAndre Swift all verging on an inactive status, the remaining Lions' skill players are all fairly cheap. The trick will be selecting those players with the right combination of skill and opportunity to deliver on their low salaries and T.J. Hockenson certainly fits the bill. Hockenson should see increased action as a result of the aforementioned injuries and his asking price is puzzling--his $4.2K salary is the cheapest he has been all season and he has scored in 60% of Detroit's game since their Week #5 bye week. In our nation's capital, Logan Thomas gets a repeat appearance in this space after delivering 10.6 DK points (3.2x last week's salary) against the Lions last Sunday; with Alex Smith's propensity to dump passes to his tight end, it is difficult to envision a scenario where "LT3" finishes with less than 10 DK points.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Broncos | MIA | $2,400 |
Falcons | @NO | $2,300 |
Team Defenses: By far, my two favorite defenses this week are the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons. Both pop on my spreadsheet for both cash games and tournaments; ensure that you get exposure in all formats. The Broncos host Tua Tagovailoa in his third career start and look unattractive on paper after facing a gauntlet of solid offenses over the past month including Chiefs, Chargers, Falcons, and Raiders. In fairness, the Dolphins offense has surprised to this point in the season, but the value on this Denver defense cannot be ignored. A similar argument could be made for Atlanta's defense against the Saints and Taysom Hill. To be clear, these recommendations are based entirely on obtaining 3x value, not the strength of the defense and/or historical performance.
TOURNAMENTS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Joe Burrow | @WAS | $5,500 | 10% |
Andy Dalton | @MIN | $5,300 | 2% |
Jake Luton | PIT | $5,000 | 1% |
Tua Tagovailoa | @DEN | $4,800 | 1% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Philip Rivers | GB | $5,600 | 3% |
FADE: | |||
Justin Herbert | NYJ | $6,800 | 11% |
Quarterbacks: On a week where all of the marquee quarterbacks are either on bye or playing in primetime games, there is reason to consider a series of lesser-talented pass throwers including Andy Dalton and Jake Luton. Dalton should find himself in a pass-heavy gamescript as touchdown-underdogs to the Vikings; both CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup will be excellent stacking options that can be game-stacked with Dalvin Cook. After a 300-yard debut against the Texans two weeks ago, Jack Luton came back to Earth last Sunday against the Packers and finished with only 169 passing yards. His matchup versus the Steelers this week is the toughest yet, but it is baked into his (and his receivers') price(s). Under Coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have traditionally played down to poor opponents, which creates sneaky value for Luton-based stacks with Chris Conley and/or Keelan Cole. Elsewhere, Joe Burrow is coming off his second-worst performance against the Steelers defense referenced in the previous sentence, but gets a plush matchup against the Redskins in a possible barnburner featuring a pair of pass-happy offenses.
- Sleeper: Outside of the Atlanta-New Orleans game, the Packers-Colts contest is the only other game on the Vegas boards with a total > 50 points. Interestingly, outside of Taysom Hill, the other three quarterbacks in those games are all slated to go off on less than 5% of tournament rosters. Of the three, Philip Rivers is the top choice because of the value associated with his receivers--Michael Pittman, T.Y. Hilton, and Zach Pascal are all projected to be on too few rosters relative to their projected output. If this game evolves into a shootout, Rivers could easily surpass 4x value on his modest $5.6K salary.
- Fade: Having delivered 20+ DK points in 5 consecutive weeks, Justin Herbert's salary and percent-rostered has risen to a point where he is a fade candidate against the lowly Jets. Herbert will be popular in stacks with Keenan Allen, while people will largely ignore Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton. If the ancillary receivers find paydirt and/or the Jets fail to keep the game close (both are real possibilities), Herbert could be relegated to handing the ball to Kalen Ballage in the second half, which could make it extremely difficult to reach GPP value at high crowd exposure.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Ezekiel Elliott | @MIN | $6,500 | 8% |
James Robinson | @PIT | $6,400 | 11% |
Antonio Gibson | CIN | $5,800 | 12% |
Salvon Ahmed | @DEN | $4,800 | 8% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
LaMical Perine | @LAC | $4,400 | 4% |
FADE: | |||
Duke Johnson Jr | NE | $5,400 | 13% |
Running Backs: The position that is most barren for GPP value this weekend is at running back. Only two running backs on the entire board have > 10% chance of achieving GPP value on their respective salaries (Dalvin Cook and Adrian Peterson). This means that DFS players will be forced to take some chances at the position, but also means that your flex position should be heavily skewed towards receivers in Week #10. Of the options not already discussed in the cash game section above, both Ezekiel Elliott and James Robinson are intriguing options in the mid-$6K range. Elliott is priced as cheaply as he has been in several years at DraftKings and faces a middle-of-the-road Vikings defense that has yielded big games to Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor already this season. Robinson's matchup against the Steelers is admittedly daunting, but his popularity should wane heading into Sunday morning; if he drifts below 8% of tournament rosters, go overweight and hope that he gets 25+ carries for the 4th consecutive week. In Denver, undrafted free agent rookie Salvon Ahmed is cheaply priced and could deliver 4x upside in his second career start; he was impressive against the Chargers last Sunday and Denver fields the league's 29th DVOA rush defense.
- Sleeper: Touting a Jets running back feels wrong in many ways and, to be sure, you are not encouraged to get more than ~ 8% exposure to LaMichal Perine, but you are advised to go overweight on the field against the Chargers. Perine has out-touched stablemate Frank Gore 5-1 inside the redzone over the past month and gets an above-average matchup against a team that allowed Salvon Ahmed to socre 16.0 DK points just a week ago.
- Fade: A cash game candidate, Duke Johnson Jr should be avoided in tournaments if his percent-rostered numbers get north of 15% (which they probably will). Duke has 96 yards rushing across his last 30 rushing attempts and found paydirt only once this season; his scoring floor is relatively safe (hence his position in the "Cash Games" section above), but his ceiling would appear to be limited. He certainly could hit 4x value on his salary, but the sharp move is to go underweight (~ 6% to 8%) and try to leverage his heightened popularity to your advantage.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
DeVante Parker | @DEN | $5,700 | 6% |
Marvin Jones | @CAR | $5,500 | 2% |
Jerry Jeudy | MIA | $5,300 | 1% |
**Allen Lazard | @IND | $4,600 | 1% |
Michael Pittman | GB | $4,500 | 6% |
Michael Gallup | @MIN | $3,700 | 2% |
A.J. Green | @WAS | $3,600 | 3% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Chris Conley | PIT | $3,000 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Michael Thomas | ATL | $7,300 | 14% |
Wide Receivers: The masses are overlooking both Miami wide receivers against Denver on Sunday. Both Jakeem Grant (above) and DeVante Parker are likely to be on too few rosters relative to their upside; Parker is coming off a poor performance while in shadow coverage from Casey Hayward, but this is a breakout spot where Parker should get plenty of action at low crowd exposure now that Preston Williams is on the IR. In Charlotte, Marvin Jones is the only healthy first-string wide receiver suiting up for the Lions and it seems that the DFS community has disregarded the entire offense despite the plus matchup against Carolina's 27th-ranked DVOA defense. Getting back to that game in Denver, if you are running out Tua-DeVante Parker (or Jakeem Grant) stack, it is smart to "run it back" with Jerry Jeudy at 1% crowd exposure. Jeudy will have his hands full with Xavien Howard in coverage, but if you have watched any film on Jeudy, you know that he is capable of delivering against any of the league's best defenders. In Indy, stacking Michael Pittman with Philip Rivers and running it back with Allen Lazard could be a sneaky, low-rostered game stack. Pittman is coming off a 100-yard game that saw him collect the Colts' most targets for the second consecutive week while Lazard is looking to make his first start in nearly two months; Lazard was, without question, Aaron Rodgers second-favorite option after Davante Adams and could be sneaky at only 1% rostered and a cheap asking price ($4.6K). Lastly, A.J. Green is coming off a goose-egg performance against the Steelers and his salary has dipped into the $3K region for the first time in ever. He should be in at least 15% of your rosters on Sunday, regardless of what your gut tells you--trust the numbers. **SUNDAY EDIT: Per RapSheet, Allen Lazard is going to be on a "pitch count" on Sunday to ease him back into football shape. Lazard loses some tournament appeal with this announcement, so you are advised to get no more than 5% exposure to him in your GPP portfolio.**
- Sleeper: With Laviska Shenault slated to miss yet another game, Chris Conley should get the nod as the Jaguars' WR2 on Sunday. Conley is rarely exciting and often under-delivers, but the combination of implied gamescript, site-minimum salary, and ultra-low percent rostered numbers makes him a contrarian GPP option this weekend. You do not have to go dramatically overweight on Conley in your GPP portfolio, but getting ~ 10% exposure is both merited and mandatory given his fantasy projections.
- Fade: A close call between Justin Jefferson and Michael Thomas, the nod goes to Thomas against the Falcons with regards to the popular wide receiver to fade this Sunday. At only $7.3K, Thomas is going to get a lot of attention as a stacking partner to Taysom Hill, but there are better places to spend your salary this week at wide receiver. Thomas is projected to be the seventh most-popular wide receiver in tournaments, but is statistically the 38th most likely to achieve GPP value on his salary. It's a tough sell to fade the slate's second-highest (implied) scoring team, but the Saints are largely overpriced relative to their anticipated fantasy output and you are advised to minimize exposure to all Saints players outside of Taysom Hill.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Eric Ebron | @JAX | $4,000 | 3% |
Dallas Goedert | @CLE | $3,800 | 12% |
Robert Tonyan Jr | @IND | $3,200 | 7% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Anthony Firkser | @BAL | $2,500 | 3% |
FADE: | |||
Mark Andrews | TEN | $4,900 | 29% |
Tight Ends: As is the case with running backs, there is not much to like at the tight end position this week. The best tight ends are playing on other slates or have a week of rest; without Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, or George Kittle, we are forced to mine a field of tight ends that have far less talent. Of the options, those referenced in the cash game section (T.J. Hockenson and Logan Thomas) are actually also the best tournament options--build your lineups accordingly. Alternatives include Dallas Goedert (who you were rightfully advised to fade in this column last week) and Robert Tonyan Jr. Goedert's salary has dipped after catching the same number of passes as Richard Rodgers last week, but Rodgers' production was extremely efficient and not likely to occur again; look for Goedert to experience positive regression this week at more reasonable popularity. Tonyan is worth ~ 10% of your exposure against the Colts, given his salary and recent usage; the Colts force a lot of underneath action with their zone scheme, which plays to Tonyan's favor.
- Sleeper: Full disclosure: It's tough to justify recommending Anthony Firkser on any metric beyond projections. Firkser plays second-fiddle to Jonnu Smith and is no better than the fourth option on his offense. That said, Firkser is priced at the stone-cold site minimum price for tight ends and needs only to find the endzone to hit 4x value on his salary. The implied gamescript favors a role for the passing game and Firkser should be on ~ 8% of your lineups to align with his projected upside on a weekend with limited talent at the position.
- Fade: For all the reasons discussed above, Mark Andrews is going to land on far too many lineups on Sunday. He is the most expensive tight end on the board and the 7th most likely to achieve GPP value, but is (by far) the slate's most popular option at his position, which makes him a poor GPP option. Top out at 8% exposure, but feel free to fade Andrews entirely.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Browns | PHL | $3,000 | 9% |
Panthers | DET | $2,700 | 7% |
Texans | NE | $2,600 | 1% |
Jets | @LAC | $2,000 | 2% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Cowboys | @MIN | $2,200 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Steelers | @JAX | $4,600 | 9% |
Team Defenses: With 10 sacks across the past month and an opposing quarterback prone to take sacks, the Cleveland Browns are enticing tournament options at $3.0K. The weather in Cleveland is projected to be shoddy (rainy, not windy, this week) for the second consecutive week, which could result in sloppy football from both sides. Recommending the league's 27th-ranked DVOA defense is a calculated measure, but the Panthers are compelling options at only $2.7K against a Lions' offense that will be led by a quarterback with a thumb injury on his throwing hand while also missing their top three offensive weapons (DAndre Swift, Kenny Golladay, Danny Amendola). As a total punt option, the Jets could easily hit 4x value at only $2K against the Chargers. $2K defenses are rarely attractive, but they open up salary for other positions where ROI is more definite and offer a contrarian stance where a fluke defensive touchdown could lead to a GPP victory.
- Sleeper: With the entire DFS community rooting on Dalvin Cook, nobody is going to want to roster the Dallas Cowboys defense on Sunday. That said, the Cowboys have scored 4x (or more) on this week's salary in 2 of their previous 5 games, including a 13-point performance against the Eagles just 2 weeks ago. Sean Lee, Leighton Vander Esch, and Aldon Smith are all capable of creating big plays to provide upside to your rosters; add them in at least 6% of your lineups, which is well overweight on where the field will have them.
- Fade: Short of Taysom Hill and Adrian Peterson, there is not much value to be had on the Week #11 slate. In line with that statement, the Steelers are more expensive that players like Jakeem Grant, Chris Conley, Michael Pittman, and the aforementioned Peterson--in other words, they are too expensive despite the plus matchup against rookie Jake Luton. Few teams have a lesser likelihood of achieving 4x value on their salary than the Steelers defense; max out at 5% and diversify away from this chalky defense to spend up at positions where the ROI is more promising.