For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE. Just a quick update for those of you reading on Sunday morning to let you know where I stand with regards to the windy conditions throughout the midwest and extending into certain parts of the northeast. There are three games that are particularly concerning due to forecasts currently available (6 AM EST): Patriots at Bills, Raiders at Browns, and Vikings at Packers. In each of these games, my advice is to downgrade the passing game a tad to account for the wind, but I will still have exposure to all of them for various reasons (many of which were outlined here originally). The game in Cleveland looks to be the windiest and you might decide to roll with Jimmy Garoppolo instead of Derek Carr in cash games to avoid taking any unnecessary chances, but I don't think you have to do that if you really were keen on Carr over Jimmy G before reading this. I would, however, advise you to upgrade the running backs in each of these games, although many of them were solid plays already (Jamaal Williams, Josh Jacobs, Kareem Hunt). Last piece of advice: Survey Twitter around 11 AM (EST) to get a final read on conditions for each game; both Kevin Roth and Chris Allen are on top of these situations and do so from a meteorologist and fantasy expert angle, respectively.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
CASH GAMES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Derek Carr | @CLE | $5,500 |
Jimmy Garoppolo | @SEA | $5,400 |
Quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes II' name is not found the above table primarily because paying $8.1K for a quarterback in cash games feels unnecessary this week. Mahomes is borderline cash-viable, but you are advised to save salary and roll with either Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo at similar price points. Carr gets a soft matchup against the Browns' 25th-DVOA pass defense that allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 400+ yards last Sunday. For his part, Carr has been relatively consistent of late, having delivered 5 consecutive games of 260+ passing yards and at least a pair of touchdowns in each. If Carr is not to your liking, Jimmy Garoppolo becomes a secondary option at nearly the same price. Garoppolo's fantasy numbers have suffered this season largely because the 49ers have asked him to play the role of game manager according to gamescript. Against the Seahawks, who are leading the league in points per game (33.8), Garoppolo is going to have to get more involved. In cases where Jimmy G has thrown the ball more than 30 times this season, he is averaging a shade over 20 DK points which is nearly 4x his salary this week; going up against Seattle, it's difficult to envision scenarios where his pass attempts stay below that threshold. Because both selections oppose offenses that should be able to put up points of their own, these quarterbacks should be active for the entire game...something that may not happen with the aforementioned Patrick Mahomes II.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Alvin Kamara | @CHI | $8,200 |
Kareem Hunt | LV | $6,900 |
Josh Jacobs | @CLE | $6,200 |
Jamaal Williams | MIN | $6,100 |
Running Backs: Last week, we got lucky with surprise scratches to Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon that opened up value with the likes of Jamaal Williams and Giovani Bernard. This week, however, DraftKings inflated the salaries of those backups and the "free squares" are nowhere to be found at the position. At the higher end of the scale, Alvin Kamara stands out (again) because Emmanuel Sanders (COVID) and Michael Thomas (hamstring) will miss yet another game. Without them on the field last week, Kamara was everywhere to be found and ended the day with 21 touches including 8 receptions, a huge commodity on DK's full-PPR scoring system. The matchup against the Bears' 10th-ranked DVOA rush defense is not a cake-walk, but Kamara has demonstrated that he can beat the best of defenses and the implied volume without Sanders and Thomas cannot be ignored. After Kamara, a trio of running backs in the $6K range are attractive for cash games (and tournaments). Kareem Hunt gets his last start prior to Nick Chubb's return and will do so against one of the league's worst rush defenses, the Las Vegas Raiders. Only the Packers are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing running backs; if this game gets as windy as forecasts are predicting, we could see both teams go heavier on the run (monitor Vegas odds heading into Sunday morning--if the totals drop, downgrade the passing offenses and upgrade the running backs). In that same game, Josh Jacobs is priced too cheaply for his projected fantasy performance; this is a great spot for him to break out of a recent slump, as the Browns have allowed three different running backs to achieve 3x Jacobs' salary (value) over the past month. Closing things out, Jamaal Williams gets another start in Aaron Jones (calf) continued absence. Williams' salary jumped by $2K this week, but he is still worthy of consideration as a heavy home-favorite against the Vikings, who allowed Green Bay to post 140 rushing yards back in Week #1.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Davante Adams | MIN | $8,800 |
Tyler Lockett | SF | $7,100 |
Keenan Allen | @DEN | $6,200 |
A.J. Green | TEN | $4,500 |
Jakobi Meyers | @BUF | $3,500 |
Denzel Mims | @KC | $3,200 |
Wide Receivers: This year's Davante Adams is last year's Michael Thomas. In the complete 3 games Adams has played, he is averaging nearly 15 targets per game and has a pair of 40+ fantasy point performances to boot. With Aaron Rodgers under center and few other receiving options to steal opportunity, Adams will continue to appear in this space for the foreseeable future. After Adams, another GPP-breaker, Tyler Lockett, gets the nod. Fresh off a 200-receiving yard, 3-touchdown, 56 DK point performance on Sunday night, Lockett will face off against the Niners at home this weekend. Another target monster, Keenan Allen is intriguing at only $6.2K against the Broncos. Allen has double-digit targets in four of his previous five games and is averaging 20 DK points per game over that span, which is just a notch above the 3x value you would need to justify his salary this weekend. Making a surprise appearance after Allen is A.J. Green against the Titans. Green started the season looking like his best days were behind him, but he has come alive of late, collecting double-digit targets in back-to-back games and respectable stat lines to boot. The Titans are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and have allowed 6 different receivers to deliver 3x Green's salary over the past month. Finally, both Jakobi Meyers and Denzel Mims make the punt list as the primary receivers for bad teams in games where they will benefit from plus gamescripts and garbage time. The Pats will be without Julian Edelman (surgery) and NKeal Harry (concussion), which means that Cam Newton will have to work with a combination of Damiere Byrd and Jakobi Meyers; Of those options, Meyers has demonstrated the best on-field rapport with Newton. In Kansas City, Mims gets the nod in a game where the Jets could throw the ball 35+ times. The second-round pick is cheaply priced and looked good in his NFL debut last week, finishing with a 4/42/0 stat line (best on the team).
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Travis Kelce | NYJ | $6,600 |
Darren Waller | @CLE | $5,600 |
Tight Ends: There is not a lot of safe value at the tight end position this weekend, so you are advised to save a few bucks at quarterback and wide receiver to jam either Travis Kelce or Darren Waller into your lineups over the other cheaper options at the position. Kelce is coming off his worst game of the season at Denver (3/31/0), but a matchup against the Jets is enough to catapult him back into contention for cash games this Sunday. If the Jets had troubles against Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe, both of whom scored against them in Week #6, imagine what Travis Kelce might do with a 35-point implied team total this weekend. If you cannot quite get to Kelce's $6.6K salary, Darren Waller is entirely acceptable at a $1K discount. Waller has six catches and/or a touchdown in all-but-one game this season and will continue to be a key cog in the Raiders defense due to his ability to move the sticks and redzone prowess. The matchup against Cleveland is solid--they have faced one top-tier tight end all season (Mark Andrews) and yielded a 5/58/2 stat line in that contest.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Tennessee | @CIN | $3,000 |
Miami | LAR | $2,400 |
Team Defenses: There are no slam dunks at team defense this week, so you are advised to just plug in a reasonably priced defense with above-average points-per-dollar value and move on to positions that are more predictable. Of the options, the Titans travel to Cincinnati to take on a Bengals' offensive line that could be missing over half of their starters. Without adequate protection, Joe Burrow could be running for his life on Sunday and the Titans have been excellent in the category of 'takeaways,' collecting 11 of them over their previous 5 games. If you would rather save a few dollars and go with a home defense, you can consider punting the position altogether and running with the Dolphins against the Rams. The Rams will make a cross-country trip for an early start against Miami, whose defense has allowed only one team (Seattle) to surpass 17 points over the past month and shut out the Jets last weekend. Over that span, they are averaging 10.5 DK points per game, which would be excellent return-on-investment at their modest $2.4K price tag.
TOURNAMENTS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Patrick Mahomes II | NYJ | $8,100 | 8% |
Russell Wilson | SF | $7,800 | 8% |
Lamar Jackson | PIT | $7,400 | 5% |
Josh Allen | NE | $7,000 | 5% |
Joe Burrow | TEN | $6,200 | 12% |
Philip Rivers | @DET | $5,900 | 2% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Cam Newton | @BUF | $5,700 | 7% |
FADE: | |||
Justin Herbert | @DEN | $6,900 | 4% |
Quarterbacks: The Chiefs are three-touchdown favorites against the punchless Jets on Sunday, which has some people worried that Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs starters might only play three quarters before handing over the offense to Chad Henne. Fear not--if Mahomes is pulled after 45 minutes of football, it will have meant that Kansas City put up plenty of points before his exit. The Chiefs' implied team total is a shade less than 35-points, which is 5-points higher than any other offense on the main slate; get yourself at least 10% exposure within your GPP portfolio and stack him with receivers whose names are elsewhere in this article. In the $7K range, Russell Wilson continues to dice defenses and is in play until his salary approaches $9K. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are lower popularity options with similar upside to Mahomes and Wilson. Lamar rarely surpasses the magical 300-yard bonus threshold for DraftKings, but he has surpassed 100-rushing yards as recent as last week; people will get away from Jackson against the Steelers defense, but this game has sneaky shootout potential and the Ravens offense runs through Lamar. In Buffalo, Josh Allen is intriguing against a Patriots defense that could be without Stephon Gilmore, who tweaked his knee in practice, did not practice on Friday, and could be playing for another team next week. Allen has looked great with a true WR1 in Stefon Diggs this season and he gets John Brown returning from injury, as well. Nearer $6K, feel free to take a few fliers on Joe Burrow and/or Philip Rivers. Burrow has thrown for 300+ yards in 5 of his previous 6 games and gets a plus matchup against the Titans, who have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in every game since their season-opener. Meanwhile, Rivers is a rather unexciting option on a run-first offense, but he is coming off a 371-passing yard performance and should have a full gamut of healthy receivers out of the Colts' bye week; the matchup against the Lions is middle-of-the-road, but all of his receiving options are fairly priced and will go on too few rosters for their respective upside.
- Sleeper: Even though the proclamation was apparently fueled by alcohol, this author was relieved to see the world's best DFS player, Awesemo, publicly proclaim that he also likes Cam Newton for tournaments this Sunday. After watching the Patriots average less than 10 points per game over the past 3 games, it is admittedly a difficult trigger to pull, but our projections suggest that Cam may not be a bad tournament selection after all. Our David Dodds has Newton tied as the sixth-best value (points per dollar) in his projections this Sunday, but Newton will drift below 5% on Sunday's final percent-rostered projections. Cam can be stacked with Jakobi Meyers for a shade over $9K, which leaves a lot of excess salary to spend up on more popular players in good spots (i.e., Alvin Kamara, Davante Adams, etc.).
- Fade: While not exceedingly popular, it appears that ~ 5% of tournament rosters will contain Justin Herbert's name on Sunday. Do not be amongst them. Herbert's price point has risen to a point where the structure of his offense and imposing matchup (Denver = 7th DVOA defense) make him a poor DFS play this weekend. Feel free to load up on Keenan Allen, but you do not need to pair him with Herbert; put Allen as a "plus one" addition to lineups with QB-WR stacks that have higher upside in better matchups than Herbert. There will be plenty of opportunity to plug him into your lineup in the next few weeks when he plays Las Vegas, Miami, and the New York Jets.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
James Conner | @BAL | $6,400 | 4% |
David Montgomery | NO | $5,900 | 2% |
Giovani Bernard | TEN | $5,800 | 6% |
DAndre Swift | IND | $5,300 | 10% |
Myles Gaskin | LAR | $5,200 | 13% |
Lamical Perine | @KC | $4,300 | 2% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Justin Jackson | @DEN | $4,800 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Derrick Henry | @CIN | $8,000 | 27% |
Running Backs: It is tough to run against the league's 3rd-ranked DVOA rush defense, but DFS players know that and are going to ignore James Conner's modest price in their decision-making process this weekend. Conner has recovered nicely from early-season concerns about his place in the offense, collecting 18 or more touches in every game since the season-opener. Everybody knows these defenses, but fail to recognize that they are the 6th- and 8th-highest scoring offenses in the league; this game could go off the rails with minimal attention from DFS players--be advised. In Cincinnati, Giovani Bernard's fantasy day was saved by a touchdown with one minute remaining against the Browns last week when he was a crowd favorite on over 20% of tournament rosters in the Millionaire Maker. This week, his price has risen $1.3K and he will be far less popular as a result, but do not sleep on him against the Titans, who have given up touchdowns to opposing running backs in every game this season. Other tournament options include DAndre Swift, who appears to have taken over the bulk of the running back duties in Detroit, against the Colts at a reasonable salary and Myles Gaskin, who just delivered his first 100-yard (all-purpose) game of the season. Wrapping up the section, Lamical Perine is a deep flyer against the Chiefs who could benefit from the likely blowout gamescript; put him into about 5% of your tournament lineups and hope that he collects some 4th-quarter garbage time receptions with a possibly meaningless (by meaningful to you) touchdown.
- Sleeper: For the second consecutive week, Justin Jackson makes the cut as a GPP selection in Tips and Picks. This week, Jackson is offered as a contrarian option to help differentiate your tournament lineups that might have more popular players at other positions. At first glance it appears that Jackson took a step backwards last week, only seeing 10 total touches (versus 20 the week prior), but he was injured during the game and the Chargers limited him as a result. Jackson practiced in full each day this week and should expected to recapture his share of the Chargers' backfield action against the Broncos. The matchup is suboptimal, but getting 5-8% exposure to Jackson is the right move when taking into account his projected output and percent-rostered numbers.
- Fade: As much fun as it is to watch Derrick Henry run over defenders, the reluctant recommendation is to fade his overwhelming popularity in Week #8. Henry is only $200 less than Alvin Kamara and has caught only 10 passes all season. Simply put, if Derrick Henry cannot find the endzone multiple times on Sunday, he cannot reach GPP value at his salary on DraftKings. If you feel compelled to play a lot of Henry, do so at FanDuel were the scoring system (half-point PPR) better fits his role in the offense. To be clear, Henry is not a "bad play" per se, but he has similar likelihood to deliver 4x value as Giovani Bernard, who is going to be on far fewer rosters than Henry, which makes Bernard (and other running backs) superior for tournament purposes.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Tyreek Hill | NYJ | $7,100 | 12% |
Stefon Diggs | NE | $6,800 | 7% |
T.Y. Hilton | @DET | $4,900 | 4% |
TreQuan Smith | @CHI | $4,700 | 1% |
Mike Williams | @DEN | $4,400 | 2% |
Marvin Jones | IND | $4,200 | 5% |
Darnell Mooney | NO | $3,500 | 6% |
Deonte Harris | @CHI | $3,300 | 1% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Demarcus Robinson | NYJ | $3,100 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Tee Higgins | TEN | $5,600 | 11% |
Wide Receivers: At the top of the list, feel free to roster Tyreek Hill and/or Stefon Diggs in your tournament lineups this weekend. Hill may not play a full game, but he could easily surpass 100-receiving yards and score multiple times against this joke of a Jets defense. Diggs gets the nod largely because recency bias will keep his percent-rostered numbers too low and because Stephon Gilmore (Profootballfocus' #1-ranked coverage cornerback) is not expected to play after tweaking his knee at practice on Thursday. Elsewhere, T.Y. Hilton continues to appear in this space because his projections and low price merit such consideration; go about 8-12% in your GPP portfolio and celebrate when Hilton breaks the longest touchdown drought of his storied career. Opposite Hilton in the same game, Marvin Jones is another cheap receiver with an ability to deliver 4x value his salary on select few rosters; he (and Kenny Golladay) make for solid "run back" stacks with Philip Rivers and the aforementioned Hilton. In Chicago, both Saints wide receivers merit consideration given their low price points and caliber of quarterback; if, however, their Sunday percent-rostered numbers rise above, say, 6-8% (TreQuan Smith) or 12-14% (Deonte Harris), fade accordingly, as that value will have evaporated. In the same game, Darnell Mooney finds himself in a similar situation in that Allen Robinson is looking doubful after not practicing all week due to a concussion. Mooney is fairly priced at $3.5K and should have ample opportunity to deliver 4-5x value on that salary against the Saints' susceptible secondary. Allen Robinson cleared concussion protocol on Saturday evening, which means that any value that was there for Darnell Mooney is effectively vanquished with ARob's presence on the field. If you want a substitute for Mooney at the same price point, Kendrick Bourne is trending positively in my rankings.
- Sleeper: Getting a slice of the Chiefs offense at only $3.1K feels like robbery, even if the player has not delivered a big game (yet) this season. Demarcus Robinson is a contrarian 5x-value candidate whose upside is probably enhanced by the blowout gamescript against the Jets. Unlike Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs' bigger-name running backs, DRob will likely play the full game on Sunday and get plenty of opportunity to get into the endzone against the Jets' 28th-ranked DVOA pass defense. He will go overlooked due to the popularity of other cheap flyers, some of whom are discussed above, but do not sleep on Robinson's sneaky combination of role, price, and percent-rostered for large-field GPP contests.
- Fade: Chasing big weeks from unproven players is typically a recipe for disaster in daily fantasy. And while the Tee Higgins has impressed in the first half of his first season in the league, we would be remiss to ignore the fact that he is now priced over $1K higher than A.J. Green and is still not as proven as Tyler Boyd. With back-to-back 18+ DK point performances entering Week #8, let other people spend the premium on Higgins while you ponder similar upside, less popular options at the same price range; both Diontae Johnson and DeVante Parker are better plays than Higgins this week, regardless of outcome.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
George Kittle | @SEA | $7,000 | 10% |
Noah Fant | LAC | $4,700 | 2% |
Hunter Henry | @DEN | $4,200 | 6% |
Harrison Bryant | LV | $3,200 | 13% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Jared Cook | @CHI | $4,400 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Jonnu Smith | @CIN | $4,100 | 13% |
Tight Ends: With key injuries to Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson, and Deebo Samuel, the only realistic way for the Niners to keep pace with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks is via George Kittle. Kittle is admittedly pricey at $7.0K, but you are getting true WR1 upside at a position where that type of upside is difficult to capture. Kittle looks great in stacks with Jimmy Garoppolo or in 'run-back' stacks with Russell Wilson and your favorite Seahawk receiver. In Denver, nobody is talking about Noah Fant despite continued steady production throughout this season. Fant returned from injury last week against the Chiefs and led the team in targets (alongside fellow tight end, Albert Okwuegbuna), but did not post a big box score; let the guppies play Okwuegbuna based on the box score while you focus on their respective snap counts (54 versus 31) and historical roles in the Broncos offense. In that same game, Hunter Henry continues to make a weekly appearance in this section. Henry is second on the team in targets, but has only scored once this season which has kept his salary reasonable (for the time being). Rounding things out, Harrison Bryant was a DFS darling last week as a surprise $2.5K starter who scored twice against the Bengals. Bryant's salary has jumped to $3.2K this week, but he is still a decent tournament option against a Raiders defense that has allowed Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski to cumulatively score 45 DK points over their past 2 games.
- Sleeper: As discussed above, both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will be inactive on Sunday, which has DFS players considering names like Deonte Harris and TreQuan Smith. Arguably a better option, Jared Cook seems to be going forgotten, as evidenced by his projected 1% crowd exposure. Remember that Cook has established the most on-field synergy with Drew Brees and is certainly the de facto redzone receiver for high-value touchdown targets over the more diminutive Harris and Smith. The Bears have allowed a touchdown to opposing tight ends in over half of their games this season and Cook enters this contest with scores in two straight. Chalk him up for another touchdown at low percent-rostered.
- Fade: Entering this weekend, Jonnu Smith has 20 receptions versus 19 receptions for teammate, Anthony Firkser. Yet, Smith is projected to appear in one out of every eight lineups while Firkser's popularity will literally be off-the-charts (meaning less than 1%). Smith has two catches over the past two games and is, at best, the fourth option on his offense behind Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Corey Davis. Folks are presumably piling on Jonnu because of how poorly the Bengals cover the tight end position (six touchdowns allowed in their last three games), but there are handful of tight ends with better odds of reaching GPP value who will not be as popular as Smith and therefore merit more attention from sharp DFS players.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Bills | NE | $3,300 | 6% |
Packers | MIN | $2,900 | 6% |
Browns | LV | $2,600 | 5% |
Bengals | TEN | $2,100 | 4% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Broncos | LAC | $3,000 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Saints | @CHI | $3,400 | 16% |
Team Defenses: The Bills are an intriguing tournament option against the Pats, who are suffering greatly due to injury (Julian Edelman and NKeal Harry) and Cam Newton's rapid demise. Averaging less than 10 points per game over their previous 3 contests, the Patriots are trending in the opposite direction of the 5-2 Bills; grab shares of the Buffalo defense, particularly if they stay around the 6% threshold currently predicted on Devin Knotts' projections. Green Bay is another defense that offers upside against the Vikings, who have won only once this season; the Packers do a decent job getting after the quarterback (2.5 sacks/game, 12th in NFL) and face off against Kirk Cousins, who tossed three interceptions in his last game. Elsewhere, taking either of the defenses in Ohio could provide contrarian upside needed to win tournaments on Sunday. The Browns face a Raiders squad that has lost three of their previous four games while the Bengals are cheap flyers against the Titans. The Browns feel like the higher upside play with Myles Garrett creating havoc on every defensive snap, but the Bengals provide salary relief and are projected similarly to deliver 4x value on their price tag.
- Sleeper: With 14 sacks and 4 takeaways across their previous 3 games, the Broncos defense is going overlooked in DFS circles this weekend. Denver allowed 43 points to the Chiefs last Sunday, but 14 of those were due to defensive and/or special teams touchdowns and another 7 occurred during garbage time, which effectively means that they yielded only 22 points to Patrick Mahomes II and his offense. This weekend, they will host rookie phenom Justin Herbert, who has been nothing short of special to this point in his young career. But rookies are rookies and make rookie mistakes--even the aforementioned Mahomes posted three different multi-interception games during his first season as a quarterback. Get yourself about a 10% share of the Broncos defense across your GPP portfolio to account for these observations, as well as the fact that the rest of the DFS community is ignoring them.
- Fade: Having allowed 23 or more points in every game this season, including games against the mediocre offenses like the Lions and Panthers, there is no reason the Saints should be on 16% of DFS tournament lineups at $3.4K this weekend. Underscoring the lack of weaponry on their defense, New Orleans only has one takeaway over the past month. This is an easy fade; this author might eliminate the Saints from his GPP player pool altogether if that number holds steady through Sunday.