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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
Sunday AM update: The Kansas City-Denver game being played at Mile High Stadium is forecasted to have terrible playing conditions today. With "feels like" temperatures of 5-degrees and snow showers both before and during the game, it is difficult to recommend the Chiefs' passing game. There are more recent references that confirm the relationship to cold weather and NFL offenses, but suffice it to say that there is a clear drop in both passing attempts and output when temperatures drop to these levels. Expect this one to be a low-scoring, run-heavy contest that is over quickly. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still in play, but you should probably remove names like Patrick Mahomes II, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce from your DFS lineups because both their floor and ceiling numbers will be negatively affected by these conditions.
CASH GAMES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Kyler Murray | SEA | $7,100 |
Joe Burrow | CLE | $5,500 |
Quarterbacks: Before digging into players at each position, you should be aware that value is difficult to find this week. DraftKings' pricing algorithm is in mid-season form and most backup players' salaries have been raised to the extent that there are no "free squares" in Week #7. With that in mind, you are going to have to make some difficult decisions to build your cash game lineups this week. Starting at quarterback, Kyler Murray is the safest player at his position for cash formats because of what he does with his legs; entering this weekend, only 12 players in the entire league have more rushing yards (61.7) than Kyler Murray and only Dalvin Cook has more rushing touchdowns (7 versus 6). The matchup against the Seahawks is pristine, as they have allowed 300+ passing yards in all-but-one game this season. With a Vegas total of 56 points, this game should go back-and-forth and allow plenty of opportunity for Murray to deliver 20+ points for your cash game roster, a threshold he has surpassed every game thus far. As a salary-saving option, Joe Burrow is intriguing against the Browns, who lost Greedy Williams (neck) to injured reserve after Week #5. For his part, Burrow has been stellar in his rookie season, delivering 300+ yards in 4 of his 6 starts. At his $5.5K price point, Burrow needs ~ 250 passing yards and a pair of scores to justify his spot in your lineup; our David Dodds has him projected at ~ 290 yards and 1.8 touchdowns, which provides some comfort in saving salary at the position.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Aaron Jones | @HOU | $7,200 |
Kareem Hunt | @CIN | $6,800 |
Kenyan Drake | SEA | $4,800 |
Running Backs: Keeping the theme of limited value, there is not much at the running back position this week either. Priced around $7K, both Aaron Jones and Kareem Hunt appear to be the optimal plays at the position due to their recent usage and implied Vegas team totals. Jones continues to split time with Jamaal Williams, but had 18+ touches in every game leading up to last week's blowout loss to the Buccaneers, where the offense was pulled early in the fourth quarter. Things are looking up for his fantasy prospects against the Texans' 25th-ranked DVOA rush defense that allowed Derrick Henry to break last week's slate with 260+ all-purpose yards. The Texans have demonstrated an ability to keep pace with opposing offenses, which should keep Jones' relevant throughout this contest. As for Hunt, he saw 23 touches in his first game without Nick Chubb (MCL), but took a step back last week in a blowout loss to the Steelers where the Browns got away from the running game early due to a pick-six from Baker Mayfield. This week, however, should be different against the Bengals, who were gashed by Chubb and Hunt for 210 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns back in Week #2. To potentially save some salary, Kenyan Drake's salary dropped by $200 despite a 31.4-fantasy point explosion against Dallas on Monday Night Football. Drake faces off at home against Seattle, who allowed nearly 200 rushing yards to the Vikings in their last contest. His scoring floor is bolstered by the likelihood of this game becoming a shootout, which should result in plenty of opportunity to reach 3x value on his modest $4.8K salary.
EDIT: Gio Bernard becomes the de facto "free square" on Friday night when Joe Mixon was surprisingly announced as "out" with a foot injury. The matchup against the Browns' 23rd-ranked DVOA rush defense is unimposing, as they are fresh off allowing James Conner to collect his first 100-yard game of the season. As a stellar receiver out of the backfield, Gio could easily accumulate 20+ touches at only $4.5K; he is the salary relief we were seeking going into Friday and the injury Gods delivered. As is the case with Bingo, start with Gio and build around him.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Davante Adams | @HOU | $8,000 |
Keenan Allen | JAX | $6,200 |
Terry McLaurin | DAL | $5,800 |
Marvin Jones | @ATL | $4,400 |
TreQuan Smith | CAR | $4,000 |
Wide Receivers: If the opportunity cost is not prohibitive, Davante Adams is the class of the wide receiver position for cash games this weekend. Adam collected 10 targets last week after missing a pair of games with a hamstring injury and the risk of re-injury is lessened with that complete game under his belt. Houston's defense has yet to slow down a legitimate WR1 this season and this game should go back-and-forth throughout to help pad Adams' statline. Around the $6K mark, both Keenan Allen and Terry McLaurin are in play for cash and GPP formats. Allen is coming off a slow 2-target game against the Saints, but had accumulated 40 targets in the 3 games prior--he has more than doubled the targets of any other Chargers' wide receiver. McLaurin makes a repeat appearance in this space after delivering a lukewarm 7/74/0 stat line against the Cowboys last weekend. Because he did not score, McLaurin's price jumped only nominally by $100 to $5.8K. With positive touchdown regression pending and 41 targets across the previous month, this will likely be the last week we will see McLaurin below $6K for the remainder of 2020. To save salary, both Marvin Jones and TreQuan Smith appear to be priced fairly based on their expected points-per-dollar output. Jones is far from appealing with only 24 targets on the season, but he cannot be ignored against this Falcons defense that has allowed 11 different receivers to hit cash game value on his $4.4K salary through 6 games this season. As for Trequan Smith, he is the next man up after both Emmanuel Sanders (COVID-IR) and Michael Thomas (hamstring) were both announced as out on Friday. He will match up against the Panthers' stingy pass defense, but the matchup is irrelevant given his implied role as the WR1 and the Saints' lofty Vegas total (29.3 points).
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Travis Kelce | @DEN | $6,300 |
Hunter Henry | JAX | $4,500 |
Tight Ends: There is never a need to justify Travis Kelce in DFS circles, so let's keep this short: The position is thin again this week, but Kelce is basically a WR1 at the tight end position and can be had at a $1K discount from what he would cost you as a wide receiver. To be fair, Denver has been a stalwart defender of tight ends this season, but check out Kelce's game logs against the Broncos across his career and you will see why he is squarely in consideration across all DFS formats. If you need to save some salary, Hunter Henry can be had at nearly $2K of a discount from Kelce and gets a plus matchup against the Jaguars, who have allowed five touchdowns to tight ends across their previous five games. If you need a cheaper option than Henry, David Nkoju should see increased action due to the late scratch of Austin Hooper (appendectomy); he is fairly priced at $3.0K and should be good for 3-5 catches for ~ 40 yards and several redzone looks.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Cincinnati | CLE | $2,800 |
Washington | DAL | $2,500 |
Team Defenses: A week after being benched against the Steelers, Baker Mayfield will take the field in Cincinnati to take on the one-win Bengals. Mayfield has thrown four interceptions across the previous two games, which bodes well for the Bengals' chances at collecting the seven points they would need to justify their place in your cash game lineups. The preferred play, however, is rolling with the Washington Football Team against Andy Dalton and the Cowboys at home. After seeing Dalton struggle against the Cardinals on Monday night, it's tough to see him improving against the Redskins on a short week of preparation. Chase Young and Montez Sweat are going to give Dalton fits and are easily the best points-per-dollar cash game play at the team defense position.
TOURNAMENTS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Patrick Mahomes II | @DEN | $7,400 | 4% |
Deshaun Watson | GB | $6,800 | 11% |
Matt Ryan | DET | $6,700 | 6% |
Justin Herbert | JAX | $6,400 | 5% |
Cam Newton | SF | $6,300 | 5% |
Teddy Bridgewater | @NO | $5,800 | 2% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Kyle Allen | DAL | $5,200 | 2% |
FADE: | |||
Russell Wilson | @ARZ | $8,000 | 8% |
Quarterbacks: Any time you can get Patrick Mahomes II on less than 5% of all rosters, he should find himself in more of your rosters than the field. Mahomes is matchup-proof every week and no quarterback has any higher upside--get at least 8-10% exposure. Both Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan deserve consideration in their respective games that Las Vegas oddsmakers have projected as the top-scoring games on the main slate. Watson has posted back-to-back 30+ DK point games and Matt Ryan is coming off a 35-DK point performance against the Vikings on the road last week. Contrarian options at the position include Justin Herbert, Cam Newton, and Teddy Bridgewater. Herbert gets a plus matchup at home against the Jags, who have allowed half of opposing quarterbacks to surpass 300-yards through the air this season. Due to recency bias, Newton will go largely ignored; his matchup against the Niners is excellent, as no team in the league has allowed more rushing yards to quarterbacks than San Francisco and Cam's upside certainly meshes well with that reality. In New Orleans, Teddy Bridgewater makes the list because both of his primary receivers (D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson) are on too few rosters, which makes him relevant in a contest with a 51-point Vegas total.
- Sleeper: Fresh off a 280-yard performance against the Giants in his first start on the Football Team, Kyle Allen is a contrarian GPP play against the Cowboys' dreadful defense. Allen can easily (and justifiably) be paired with either Terry McLaurin and/or Logan Thomas for cheap upside and even "run back" with Ezekiel Elliott. Given the implied Vegas gamescript, both teams should keep their opponents' offense in play for the full game.
- Fade: At $8.0K and approaching double-digit percent-rostered numbers, it is tough to justify Russell Wilson as a GPP play this week. We have seen Russ deliver 4x value (and then some) on this salary early this season, but the likelihood that he continues to post 30+ DK point games is less than the general public might otherwise believe. Certainly get a few shares, but stay under the field on Sunday.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Alvin Kamara | CAR | $7,900 | 32% |
Ezekiel Elliott | @WAS | $7,800 | 9% |
Josh Jacobs | TB | $6,300 | 3% |
Clyde Edwards-Helaire | @DEN | $6,100 | 5% |
Antonio Gibson | DAL | $5,000 | 5% |
Justin Jackson | JAX | $4,900 | 10% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
James White | SF | $4,900 | 3% |
FADE: | |||
DAndre Swift | @ATL | $5,400 | 6% |
Running Backs: It's not too often that you'll see a 30+% rostered player recommended here, but Alvin Kamara cannot be ignored against the NFL's 26th-ranked DVOA rush defense in a game where New Orleans will be missing both of its primary pass-catchers. Kamara should touch the ball 25+ times on Sunday and could easily pass 30 DK points if not vultured in the redzone by Latavius Murray. In Washington, Ezekiel Elliott is going overlooked due to a combination of the Cowboys' ineptitude on Monday Night Football with Andy Dalton under center and because cheaper options (Aaron Jones and Kareem Hunt) will garner attention of the masses. Be sure to get 15+% of Elliott in your GPP portfolio, as Dallas is going to feed him against the Football Team to put as little pressure on Dalton as possible in a must-win game for Dallas. In that same game, Antonio Gibson is an intriguing option at only $5.0K against a Cowboys defense that has allowed two-touchdown games to Malcolm Brown, Kareem Hunt, and Kenyan Drake already this season. Speaking of two-touchdown games, Josh Jacobs is coming off a two-touchdown performance in his last contest, but is looking to land on < 5% of rosters against the Buccaneers; the matchup is unappealing against Tampa Bay's tough front seven, but the Raiders offense flows through Jacobs, as evidenced by his 24.3-touch per game average to this point in the season. Do not go overboard, but getting 10-15% exposure to Jacobs is the right move. Lastly, save some salary and consider Justin Jackson, who appears to be overtaking Joshua Kelley in the Chargers backfield. Jackson is coming off an 18-touch performance against the Saints where he deservedly outsnapped Kelley 42-25. Against the league's 5th-friendliest defense to his position, Jackson is in a great spot to deliver GPP value at a modest sub-$5K salary.
- Sleeper: Since returning from injury a few weeks ago, James White has led the New England backfield in snaps for two consecutive weeks. Over that time, he has led the Patriots in targets (17; 8.5 per game) and is trending towards becoming Cam Newton's favorite "receiver." In DraftKings' full PPR scoring system, White can very quickly accumulate the 20 DK points he needs to justify his spot in your tournament lineups if he can find the endzone just once. If he does so on less than 5% of rosters, as expected, he becomes a differentiator for a top-tier GPP finish.
- Fade: DAndre Swift won a few GPPs for DFS players last week with his surprise 2-touchdown, 30.3 DK point performance against the Jaguars. This week, he is trending towards being on ~ 10% of tournament rosters largely due to his results rather than the underlying data, which show that he did not receive any more snaps (38% of his offense) than in previous weeks; instead, he just did more with those snaps, including scoring twice on 17 total touches. Look for him to regress this week against the Falcons, who shut down Alexander Mattison last week.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Stefon Diggs | @NYJ | $7,000 | 8% |
Tyler Lockett | @ARZ | $6,600 | 16% |
Chris Godwin | @LV | $6,400 | 11% |
Tyreek Hill | @DEN | $6,400 | 8% |
Robby Anderson | @NO | $6,000 | 11% |
D.J. Moore | @NO | $5,600 | 5% |
Tyler Boyd | CLE | $5,400 | 7% |
Marquez Valdes-Scantling | @HOU | $4,100 | 5% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Breshad Perriman | BUF | $3,700 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Christian Kirk | SEA | $4,900 | 4% |
Wide Receivers: With John Brown inactive due to a foot injury, Stefon Diggs should get all the attention he can handle from Josh Allen on Sunday. Gabriel Davis is certainly in play in tournaments at only $3.7K, but Diggs is the bigger beneficiary of Brown's absence and will have his way with the Jets' 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense; if he lands on less than 10% of rosters, as our DFS percent-rostered projections currently predict, it will have been way too low. In the $6K range, several receivers stand out as bringing significant upside without excess crowd exposure. Tyler Lockett is the most popular of the bunch at 16%, but that is still reasonable given that the Cardinals have not demonstrated an ability to contain talented slot receivers all season. In Las Vegas, get some shares of Chris Godwin at only $6.4K against the league's 31st-ranked DVOA defense. Coming off a two-game absence last week, Godwin played in only 62% of the team's snaps, but should return closer to 85+% this week, which makes him an elite high-upside option in a game that oddsmakers think could shoot out. In New Orleans, both Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore jumped off the spreadsheet this weekend as being under-rostered when compared to their odds to achieve GPP value. Marshon Lattimore has not been his usual lock-down self in 2020, which lowers concern around Robby and D.J. delivering in an implied gamescript that should have Teddy Bridgewater throwing for four full quarters. As a salary-saver, Maquez Valdez-Scantling is a reasonable pivot away from the love given to Aaron Jones and Davante Adams by the masses; MVS is nowhere near as talented as those players, but he will see plenty of action and cannot be ignored in a game where the Packers are projected to surpass 30 points.
- Sleeper: Sheerly based on projections, Breshad Perriman is a deep GPP flyer against the Bills on Sunday. We have to acknowledge that he will face-off against TreDavious White for at least half of his snaps, but we also have to accept that the Jets will throw the ball on 70% of their plays in this game given the implied gamescript and lack of options in the backfield. Augmenting Perriman's likelihood for success is the fact that Jamison Crowder is questionable with a groin injury; if he were to be inactive on Sunday morning and/or tweak that hamstring during the game, Perriman becomes super-sneaky at only $3.7K and on 1% of rosters.
- Fade: This fade recommendation is based off the premise that Christian Kirk's percent-rostered numbers will creep closer to 10% entering Sunday morning. Kirk is coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Cowboys and his salary dropped by $100 from last week. Because of recency bias, his price, and the matchup against the Seahawks' 29th-ranked DVOA defense, Kirk will get more popular heading into Sunday morning. Go against the crowd and recognize that had only three targets last week and scored on two of those opportunities; that kind of output is not sustainable on such limited opportunity.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
George Kittle | @NE | $6,500 | 4% |
Darren Waller | TB | $6,100 | 10% |
Jared Cook | CAR | $4,300 | 3% |
Logan Thomas | DAL | $3,500 | 3% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Rob Gronkowski | @LV | $4,500 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Hunter Henry | JAX | $4,500 | 9% |
Tight Ends: With 5+ receptions in all-but-one game this season, Darren Waller is always in play at a position where volatility is rampant. Speaking of "always in play," George Kittle is projected to be on only 4% of GPP rosters on Sunday, presumably because DFS players would rather have Travis Kelce at the same price and avoid dealing with the "Bill Belichick shuts down an opposing team's best player" theory. While this author has the utmost respect for Belichick, I am rolling with far more than 4% Kittle in my GPP portfolio because Kittle has demonstrated immense upside over the past 18 months and he remains the Niners' best offensive player, by far. Going cheaper, Jared Cook could gain momentum going into the weekend with both Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders sidelined, but he's reasonably priced and will be Drew Brees' primary redzone target due to his size and rapport with his quarterback. Lastly, Logan Thomas scored for the first time since opening weekend, but his salary jumped by only $200 this week. The matchup against the Cowboys could not be better, as Dallas has allowed 30+ points to every team since their season-opener; as the second receiving option on the Football Team, Thomas is going entirely overlooked if he ends up on only 3% of tournament lineups (as currently projected).
- Sleeper: It looks as though Rob Gronkowski is starting to get into "football shape" over the past few weeks. He is playing > 80% of the team's offensive snaps and has seen an uptick in usage since O.J. Howard went down with a season-ending Achilles injury a few weeks back. With six or more targets in three of his previous four games, Gronk is beginning to deliver on the promise he brought to the Bucs when they signed him out of retirement in the off-season. If he stays on only 1% of rosters against the Raiders, be sure to be overweight on that number.
- Fade: For cash games, feel free to slot Hunter Henry into any (and all?) lineups for the reasons outlined earlier in this article; for GPP's, however, his percent-rostered numbers could approach the teens, which would be too high for his current projected fantasy output. Monitor our percent-rostered predictions Sunday morning and adjust accordingly. If he stays in the single-digits, he would be a suitable, if not excellent, tournament play.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Bills | NYJ | $4,700 | 9% |
Cowboys | @WAS | $3,000 | 5% |
Browns | @CIN | $2,800 | 9% |
Jets | BUF | $2,000 | 4% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
49ers | @NE | $3,300 | 2% |
FADE: | |||
Falcons | DET | $2,400 | 2% |
Team Defenses: The Buffalo Bills are the most expensive defense in recent and distant memory on DraftKings. Because they are priced as much as a middle-tier receiver, we should expect the DFS community to spend their salary elsewhere and the current percent-rostered projections to weaken heading into Sunday. Their matchup against Sam Darnold and the punchless Jets is pristine and prime for a double-digit fantasy performance; if they go off on less than 7-9% of rosters, go overweight and root for a defensive touchdown (or two). It's tough to recommend the Cowboys after seeing them allow 30+ points in 5 consecutive games, but they are getting healthier on defense with Leighton Vander Esch returning last week and Aldon Smith now off the injury report. With Kyle Allen under center in a game the Cowboys must win, there are plausible scenarios whereby Dallas can deliver 10+ DK points at limited percent-rostered. If you are looking to punt the position entirely, rolling with the Jets defense at the site-minimum is a possibility against the Bills; it will not be comfortable, but the Jets are averaging a shade under 3x value and have yet to end up posting negative points, so they are worth a shot on those rosters where you are spending up at other positions.
- Sleeper: The 49ers have been a fairly solid defense despite losing key players to injury this season. To date, only one team (Vikings) has surpassed 25 points against San Francisco and they also have a double-digit fantasy point game on the books against the Giants. With Cam Newton struggling against a worse Broncos defense last week, the Niners are worth a few percent of your GPP portfolio given their low percent-rostered projections.
- Fade: If the Falcons end on only 2% of rosters, as is currently projected by our percent-rostered charts, they are not a fade candidate. However, they could trickle north heading into Sunday, particularly coming off an impressive performance against the Vikings last weekend when ~ 35% of the DFS community watched them shut down Alexander Mattison. The sweet spot for your total exposure should be no more than 4% of your entire portfolio and eliminating them from your player pool altogether is not a bad idea based on their inability to get after the quarterback (4 sacks over the past month).