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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation. If you have questions about any of the recommendations or the process that led to them, please email me at john.lee@footballguys.com.
CASH GAMES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Kyler Murray | DET | $6,800 |
Cam Newton | LV | $6,700 |
Quarterbacks: On most weeks in this column, you will be advised to save salary in cash games at the quarterback position...but not this week. With Kyler Murray's coming-of-age and Cam Newton's resurgence, this is a week to pay up at the position to ensure a solid scoring floor. Murray is averaging ~ 30 DK points per game in Kliff Kingsbury's spread offense and Newton quelled his naysayers with an incredible ~ 400-yard performance last Sunday night against Seattle. Both are strong options this week facing inferior defenses--Murray gets the Lions' 28th-ranked DVOA pass defense that has allowed nearly 500 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers and Mitchell Trubisky through their first pair of games. Meanwhile, Newton faces off against the Raiders' 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense that has yielded a shade under 300 yards per game to Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater to this point in the season. Both quarterbacks bring legitimate rushing prowess to your lineups to bolster your scoring floors; Newton has 123 rushing yards and 4 scores, while Murray has accumulated 168 yards and 3 touchdowns on his legs.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Derrick Henry | @MIN | $7,800 |
Jonathan Taylor | NYJ | $7,000 |
Miles Sanders | CIN | $6,400 |
Jeff Wilson | NYG | $4,000 |
Running Backs: After watching the Bengals allow 150+ rushing yards to the Chargers and Browns in back-to-back weeks, Miles Sanders should be your first running back rostered at $6.1K this weekend. Sanders' price jumped nominally by $100 week-over-week despite 23 touches for 130+ all-purpose yards and a score in his 2020 debut against the Rams last Sunday. Bolstering his odds is the fact that Eagles' offensive line looks to be at 100% for the first time all season. You should consider going back to the well with Derrick Henry this week in spite of his disappointing performance against the Jaguars in Week #2. As discussed on Thursday's episode of the PowerGrid, Derrick Henry has averaged a touchdown scored every 18.4 touches over the past two years, yet has not found paydirt in 59 opportunities in 2020. Expect positive scoring regression this week against the Vikings, who made Aaron Jones a DFS hero just last week. In Indy, feel free to roll with Jonathan Taylor against the hapless Jets as a hefty 11.5-point home favorite. Frank Reich surprised some by giving Taylor 28 touches last Sunday after starting the season with a 50/50 split between Taylor and stablemate, Nyheim Hines. The job now clearly belongs to Taylor and the implied gamescript weighs heavily in his favor. Lastly, monitor beat reports into Sunday morning, but early rumors from the Bay area suggest that Jeff Wilson could get the majority of looks out of the Niner backfield on Sunday; if those rumors are substantiated, Wilson becomes an attractive punt option for cash games at only $4.0K against the Giants, who allowed 100+ all-purpose yards to both David Montgomery and Benny Snell in their first two games.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
DeAndre Hopkins | DET | $7,900 |
Amari Cooper | @SEA | $6,500 |
Tyler Lockett | DAL | $6,400 |
NKeal Harry | LV | $4,200 |
K.J. Hamler | TB | $3,000 |
Wide Receivers: After slotting Miles Sanders into your cash game rosters, the next step is to click on DeAndre Hopkins' name at the wide receiver position. The Cardinals are running the third-fastest offense to this point in the season (neutral script, FootballOutsiders) and are averaging nearly 75 offensive plays per game. Of the Arizona receivers, Hopkins is garnering a 35.7% target share of this ample offense, second in the NFL and trailing only Jamison Crowder (39.4%). With the highest implied team total on the Vegas boards, lock in the biggest piece of Arizona's offense via Nuk and his reasonable $7.9K salary. From there, both of the WR1's in the Dallas-Seattle game are modestly priced for their relative roles and scoring floors in a potential shootout; Amari Cooper has 23 targets, while Tyler Lockett has 14 across their first two games and neither defense has demonstrated an ability to shut down an opponent's passing game to date. To save salary, NKeal Harry is starting to display the upside the Patriots anticipated when they drafted him in the first round of last year's NFL draft; Harry's 29% market share of the team's passes trails only 6 NFL receivers; add in a tasty matchup against the Raiders' 26th-ranked DVOA pass defense and Harry is an intriguing salary-saving option for cash games. In Denver, Courtland Sutton (knee) is out for the season, which elevates Jerry Jeudy to the WR1 role and opens up an opportunity for second-round pick, K.J. Hamler to run out of the slot against Tampa Bay on Sunday. Hamler, alongside Noah Fant, should be Jeff Driske's primary targets in a play-from-behind gamescript; at the site-minimum price point, Hamler needs a pedestrian 5/40/0 stat line to justify his spot in your cash game lineups.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Zach Ertz | CIN | $5,100 |
Logan Thomas | @CLE | $3,700 |
Tight Ends: Much like the quarterback position, you are typically advised to save salary wherever possible when rostering tight ends in cash games. In short, the volatility of tight end usage from week to week merits a cautious approach, as we saw with Chris Herndon last week when Adam Gase decided to use him primarily as a blocker after he saw seven targets in Week #1. DraftKings, however, threw us a monkey wrench this weekend and assigned appropriate salaries for most of the position, which forces our hand when constructing cash game lineups. Of the available tight ends, both Zach Ertz and Logan Thomas are intriguing options primarily because of their respective roles within their offenses. Ertz should get plenty of looks with the Eagles expected to run a "12-formation" offense for most of the day, now that Jalen Reagor has been announced as "out" with a thumb injury. Ertz is basically a low-end WR1 for the Philly offense and is priced cheaper than that level of receiver. As for Thomas, he faces a Browns team that has been lit up by his position in their first two games--Cleveland has allowed 18 catches for 149 yards and 3 touchdowns to tight ends thus far. When considering Thomas' reasonable salary and matchup, he should be expected to be the most popular tight on the board this Sunday.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY |
Eagles | CIN | $2,800 |
Jets | @IND | $2,000 |
Team Defenses: If you have the excess salary, you might consider the Buccaneers ($3.7K) against the Jeff Driskell-led Broncos. That said, saving salary is always recommended at the team defense roster spot, so the Eagles top the list of cash game options against the Bengals. Cincinnati could not get much going until "garbage time" against the Browns last Thursday and did almost nothing against the Chargers in their season-opener. The Eagles rate out as the 11th-overall DVOA defense and are affordably priced at only $2.8K. As a complete punt option, the Jets show up as the site-minimum price again this week. Despite allowing nearly 60 "football points" across their first two games, the Jets have gotten after the quarterback reasonably well (6 sacks) and collected an average of 5.5 points per game over that span. If salary is limiting, this is the recommended place to save salary.
TOURNAMENTS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Russell Wilson | DAL | $7,300 | 15% |
Dak Prescott | @SEA | $7,200 | 11% |
Matt Ryan | CHI | $6,600 | 5% |
Matthew Stafford | @ARZ | $6,300 | 4% |
Philip Rivers | NYJ | $6,000 | 1% |
Carson Wentz | CIN | $5,800 | 4% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Justin Herbert | CAR | $5,900 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Ryan Tannehill | @MIN | $5,900 | 2% |
Quarterbacks: They are going to be on a lot of rosters, but it's difficult to come up with reasons to avoid considering Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott in this week's marquee matchup in Seattle. The Vegas total has continually crept upwards and currently resides at 57 points, a strong argument that oddsmakers believe that the defenses will have little impact in this contest. Get close to their projected roster numbers in your portfolio, but do not go overweight--there are other quarterbacks will similar upside that will be on fewer overall lineups. Of those, the "Matts" are both attractive. Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford have posted some ridiculously consistent 300-yard games since the beginning of 2019--collectively, they have 300+ yards passing and/or 2+ passing touchdowns in 24 of their previous 28 games during that span. This week, stacking with Matt Ryan becomes an easier proposition than normal, as Julio Jones is on the doubtful side of questionable to suit up against the Bears. In Arizona, Matthew Stafford welcomes the return of Kenny Golladay in the Lions' likely shootout with the fast-paced Cardinals, another game with a 55+ point Vegas total. Two other contrarian options: Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz are leverage plays against the ~ 30-40% of rosters that will roll out either Jonathan Taylor or Miles Sanders, respectively. If those teams put up points (and both are projected for > 26 points) and their running backs falter, Rivers and/or Wentz would deliver at sub-5% numbers.
- Sleeper: A week after posting a 300-yard game in his NFL debut, Justin Herbert is surprisingly going unnoticed in DFS circles this weekend. Herbert looked solid, if not great, after getting a surprise start when Tyrod Taylor was rushed to a hospital for a punctured lung due to a pre-game pain injection last weekend. Herbert (and the Chargers) defense took the defending Super Bowl champs to overtime, maintaining drives and even scampering for a touchdown along the way. This week, he takes on the league's worst DVOA defense, Carolina, that has allowed a total of eight touchdowns through two games. He's an excellent high-upside sleeper that can easily be paired with several cheap receivers (Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry) complemented by chalky options in the Dallas-Seattle and Detroit-Arizona games for differentiation from the masses.
- Fade: It is tough to recommend fading a player that is only on 2% of rosters, but I expect that number to roughly double by Sunday and it will have been too high for Ryan Tannehill in a run-heavy slog in Minnesota. This is a game featuring bellcow running backs coached by teams with a run-first mentality. Avoid Tannehill, despite his surprise Week #2 performance against Jacksonville, and get your exposure to Derrick Henry (and Dalvin Cook) in this matchup instead.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Ezekiel Elliott | @SEA | $8,300 | 22% |
Derrick Henry | @MIN | $7,800 | 15% |
James Conner | HOU | $6,700 | 5% |
Chris Carson | DAL | $6,600 | 9% |
David Johnson | @PIT | $5,400 | 3% |
Antonio Gibson | @CLE | $4,700 | 3% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Tarik Cohen | @ATL | $4,300 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Kenyan Drake | DET | $6,000 | 25% |
Running Backs: No need to dig deep on justification to roster Zeke Elliott this (or any) week. Get a piece of him across 15-20% of your lineups. Going slightly underweight on Elliott will afford you the ability to get additional shares of Derrick Henry, my favorite GPP running back option on the Week #3 slate. On most weeks, a cash game option will not be called out again in the GPP section, but this week is an exception intended to drive the point home--get Henry on over a quarter of your GPP lineups for the reasons already referenced in the cash game section. The running back competition between Benny Snell and James Conner did not last long in Pittsburgh. After questions arose about a possible split backfield after Snell excelled in the season-opener, Conner firmly took command last week with 18 touches (versus 6 for Snell) and 120+ all-purpose yards. Also getting back All-Pro offensive lineman, David DeCastro from injury, Conner could be going overlooked in a nice matchup against the Texans, who have allowed over 6.3 yards per carry to this point in the season.
- Sleeper: The Falcons have demonstrated an aptitude at stopping the run, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry to the Cowboys and Seattle, both of whom boast solid running games. As a result, expect the Bears' running backs to be completely ignored this weekend for DFS purposes. Likewise, Tarik Cohen has been underutilized to date because of the Bears' surprising 2-0 start to the season. Cohen becomes intriguing on Sunday against the Falcons because they have struggled to contain pass-catching running backs dating back several years and because he should see a major boost in usage in a likely pass-heavey gamescript. At his price point and likely percent-rostered, he merits consideration in large-field GPPs.
- Fade: By the time lineups lock on Sunday, Kenyan Drake could appear in nearly 30% of tournament lineups. Drake is an excellent option at the position, but my metrics give him approximately a 15% chance of achieving GPP value on his $6.0K salary--his percent-rostered numbers will likely double that prognostic indicator. As a result, the recommendation is to say closer to (or under) 15% exposure to Drake in your GPP portfolio and hope that he stays under 18-20 DK points.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Adam Thielen | TEN | $6,900 | 18% |
DK Metcalf | DAL | $6,500 | 14% |
Allen Robinson | @ATL | $6,200 | 14% |
Keenan Allen | CAR | $6,100 | 2% |
T.Y. Hilton | NYJ | $5,600 | 4% |
CeeDee Lamb | @SEA | $5,400 | 11% |
DeSean Jackson | CIN | $5,200 | 5% |
Damiere Byrd | LV | $3,000 | 1% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
A.J. Green | @PHL | $6,000 | 2% |
FADE: | |||
Robert Woods | CAR | $6,100 | 11% |
Wide Receivers: Because of all the attention on pricier players in Seattle and Arizona, I suspect Adam Thielen's projected rostership numbers to drop by the time lineups lock on Sunday afternoon. With that assumption in mind, Thielen makes an excellent tournament option because of his stranglehold on targets amongst Minnesota receivers and because we should not fear a Titans defense that allowed Gardner Minshew to throw for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns against them in Week #2. In the aforementioned Seattle game, CeeDee Lamb plays out of the slot where the Seahawks have been throttled by Russell Gage (6/46/1) and Julian Edelman (8/179/0) through their first two contests; coming off his first 100-yard receiving game, but still not having scored, Lamb brings easy 4x upside in this matchup. Opposite Lamb, the Cowboys have no answer for either of the the Seahawks' receivers. Tyler Lockett will also run out of the slot, where the Cowboys will be without Anthony Brown (ribs); meanwhile, DK Metcalf posted back-to-back 4/90+/1 stat lines to open the season and appears to be evolving into the player Seattle envisioned when they stole him in the second round of last year's draft. As a deep flyer, you could do worse than punting with Damiere Byrd at $3.0K, who is paired up with his former quarterback (Cam Newton) and whose usage took a dramatic uptick last week against the Seahawks.
- Sleeper: The DFS community has written off A.J. Green. He is projected to be on between 1-2% of rosters despite 22 targets through a pair of games (tied for 4th in the league). Based more on a gut feeling than Vegas odds, I expect the Eagles to fly in this matchup, which will force the Bengals' passing game into high-gear. Of those most likely to benefit, Drew Sample and A.J. Green top the list of potential sleepers.
- Fade: If Robert Woods lands in double-digit percentages of rosters on Sunday, it likely will have been too much against the Bills' stellar secondary. Tredavious White is one of the best defensive backs in the league and Woods will have his hands full trying to find space while in his shadow coverage. If you want to consider a Rams receiver, Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee should avoid that superior coverage on the outside; pick the one with lower crowd exposure to make your roster most unique.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Dallas Goedert | CIN | $4,900 | 4% |
Hayden Hurst | CHI | $4,700 | 8% |
Chris Herndon | @IND | $3,400 | 6% |
Jimmy Graham | @ATL | $3,400 | 1% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Noah Fant | TB | $5,400 | 1% |
FADE: | |||
Darren Waller | @NE | $5,700 | 17% |
Tight Ends: A week removed from seemingly excess value at the tight end position, DraftKings adjusted their salaries this week and value is sparce. When value is relatively barren at tight end, the recommendation is typically to focus on upside. On the main slate lacking Travis Kelce and an injured George Kittle, the Eagles' tight ends and Hayden Hurst top the charts for that metric. As referenced above, Jalen Reagor will miss the game in Philly, which should elevate Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert to the primary receiving weapons for the Eagles against a Bengals team that gets almost zero pressure on opposing quarterbacks. In Atlanta, both tight ends are also in play. Hayden Hurst got more targets on less snaps (Week #2 versus Week #1) and matches up against a Bears defense that ranked in the bottom-10 defending his position last year and has already allowed a pair of 50+ yard games to T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram in 2020. Opposite Hurst, Jimmy Graham is one of the few legitimate punt options at his position this week. At this point in his career, Graham is nothing more than a tournament play, whose upside will be directly correlated to his redzone prowess--if he scores, something that tight ends have done against the Falcons in each of their games, he delivers value (and vice-versa).
- Sleeper: Only Jonnu Smith has more touchdowns as a tight end than Noah Fant this season, but DraftKings priced Fant higher than Smith, Hunter Henry, and Zach Ertz, which has driven his popularity to a state of non-existence on Sunday. The fact remains that Fant could be the primary Broncos receiver if Jerry Jeudy (ribs) is unable to play because Courtland Sutton suffered a season-ending injury last week. Given the strength of the Buccaneers' defense lies primarily in defending the run, we could see Fant collect a lot more than the five targets he received from Jeff Driskel last weekend and deliver a touchdown for the third consecutive week.
- Fade: In an implied gamescript that could take the Raiders out of their comfort zone and force them to pass, it would appear that Darren Waller should be the primary beneficiary with Henry Ruggs (knee) missing another game. That said, we are well-versed in watching Bill Belichick forcing opposing teams to best the Patriots with their secondary players; in other words, look for Belichick to scheme Waller out of the offense as much as possible and force Derek Carr to win with names like Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards, and Nelson Agholor. Limit yourself to no more than 10% of your tournament lineups with Waller for this reason.
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % |
Tampa Bay Bucs | @DEN | $3,700 | 8% |
New England Pats | LV | $3,200 | 5% |
Atlanta Falcons | CHI | $2,800 | 5% |
New York Giants | SF | $2,700 | 7% |
DEEP SLEEPER: | |||
Pittsburgh Steelers | HOU | $4,000 | 4% |
FADE: | |||
Eagles | CIN | $2,800 | 14% |
Team Defenses: Paying up to be contrarian is always a simple way to diversify your tournament lineups. This week, rostering the Buccaneers against a battered Broncos team represents a top option. Jeff Driskel will start, filling in for Drew Lock (shoulder), and Courtland Sutton (knee) is out for the season while Jerry Jeudy (ribs) is a game-time decision. In Foxborough, always bet on Bill Belichick over Jon Gruden. Henry Ruggs (knee) will miss another game, leaving Darren Waller as the Raiders' core receiving option; expect Belichick to lock down Waller and force Derek Carr's (shaky) hand with his quaternary receiving corps, which could get ugly in garbage time. Another potential option is taking a flyer on the Giants against Nick Mullens in San Francisco. The Giants are not a lock-down defense, but Mullens' lack of recent play and 13/11 lifetime touchdown-to-interception ratio argue that rostering the Giants at sub-10% levels could be a sneaky tournament play.
- Sleeper: The Steelers defense is arguably a top 3-5 unit this year, but will be on less than 5% of tournament rosters because of their hefty $4.0K price tag on Sunday. As stated above, paying up to be contrarian is always an excellent means to diversify your tournament rosters and rolling with the Steelers defense accomplishes that goal. The league's #1-ranked DVOA defense is filled with playmakers capable of generating a defensive score on any given play; nab a piece of them for your GPP portfolio and hope that Joe Haden or Minkah Fitzpatrick are able to deliver on those prospects.
- Fade: While the Eagles are probably the best play at the position, their total percent-rostered will approach 20% by Sunday. As discussed in previous editions of this article, it is seldom where that level of popularity is merited at the team defense position. Go about half of the field (~ 10%) and diversify with other teams with the expectation that one (or multiple) will outscore the Eagles.