Super Bowl Single Game Slate

An overview of the top plays for this week's Super Bowl Showdown

HOW TO APPROACH THE DRAFTKINGS CAPTAIN SPOT?

If you’re playing either DraftKings GPP, one of the biggest mistakes particularly on DraftKings people make is that they play a quarterback in the Captain/MVP spot. While this is the right strategy in a cash game as the quarterbacks have the highest floor of any player, it often is the wrong decision when it comes to GPP’s, especially on DraftKings. There are three reasons for this:

  • Salary cap- On DraftKings, you have to pay a 1.5x premium for the Captain spot. By taking the most expensive player on the board at that 1.5x premium, this severely limits your ability to fill out the rest of the roster as Mahomes this week takes up 37.8% of your salary and leaves just $6,220 per position if you roster him in the Captain spot.
  • Roster Percentage- Quarterbacks typically are some of the highest owned players in the Captain spot especially in a contest such as the Super Bowl contest where you will have more people unfamiliar with the Showdown game, but chasing some of the bigger prizes.
  • Game Flow- Unless the quarterback is going to score a rushing touchdown or have significant rushing upside such as Lamar Jackson, most of his points are going to come through the air. What that ultimately means is that the upside is with those catching the ball more than the quarterback himself due to the point per reception, the point every 10 yards, and the 6 point receiving touchdown compared to just a 4 point passing touchdown from the quarterback.

This article will be focused on DraftKings due to the complexity of the pricing on the captain spot.

HOW TO APPROACH THE FANDUEL MVP Spot

At the FanDuel MVP spot, you want to put the player who has the most upside on your team in your MVP, in this game. Typically it will be a quarterback, simply because with the 0.5 PPR wide receivers don't have the upside that a quarterback has. If you want to be contrarian and start a non-QB, Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce could pay off, if they have 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns in an otherwise low scoring game from Mahomes. Playing Brady could give you leverage against the field as it is expected that a vast majority of people will have Mahomes in this spot.

Game Stacking and Lineup Construction

Lineup construction is critical, as in these showdown lineups, you need to sell yourself on a narrative regarding how the game will play out. For example, if you feel that the Chiefs are going to win big, you may want to take 5 Chiefs and 1 Buccaneers player. If you feel that it is going to be a shootout, taking both quarterbacks seems to be the answer. With this being a one game slate, correlation is incredibly important.

One thing you should probably do heading into this game is avoid starting a defense at least in the traditional format as both of these teams are in the bottom 5 in sacks allowed and both of these quarterbacks do a good job in not turning the ball over. One option if you do want to take a defense is to be contrarian and hope for a kick return or punt return for a touchdown. Pairing someone like a Mecole Hardman with the Chiefs defense or Jaydon Mickens with the Buccaneers could work out if there is a return for a touchdown as both players will get credit for the score.

pATRICK mAHOMES

Mahomes is as safe of a player as there is on this slate, as it is extremely likely that he will top 300 yards in this game, and likely has a 23 point floor (300 yards + 2 touchdowns). You are going to want him on your lineup in one form or another, and the only question is whether you want him as your captain on DraftKings as he will likely be the highest rostered player this week. The challenge here is that with DraftKings pricing being 1.5x, if that Mahomes has a huge day, it is extremely likely that one of his receivers (Hill or Kelce) has a big game.

Taking Mahomes as your captain can certainly work out, but it is going to be difficult as the remaining salary per position is just $6,400 which ultimately means that you will need to get creative in taking some lower end players to pay off. There is also a strong likelihood that if Mahomes is your captain on DraftKings that it will lead to duplication of lineups as there are only so many combinations that can be made due to the salary constraints with the high-end quarterback.

Recommendation: DraftKings Flex, FanDuel Flex, FanDuel MVP

tYREEK hILL

Many people are going to look at Tyreek Hill as a great Captain spot on DraftKings and for good reason. He is the third most expensive player, but has as high of upside as anyone as he showcased in the team’s Week 12 matchup where he had 269 yards and 3 touchdowns amassing 61 DraftKings points prior to the 1.5x bonus. The question is whether he can do this again, and there is a lot of promise that Hill could have a massive day once again as the Buccaneers have struggled with speed all season.

The secondary is not a bad one, but does have some holes most notably at the safety position as Antoine Winfield Jr Jr and Jordan Whitehead have struggled in pass coverage which puts a significant amount of pressure on the corners as neither Carlton Davis nor Sean Murphy-Bunting have anywhere near the speed to keep up with Hill. Even if the Buccaneers want to take him away and let someone else beat them, I’m not sure that they have the ability to as he has massive upside in this game.

Recommendation: DraftKings MVP, DraftKings Flex, FanDuel Flex, FanDuel MVP

Rob Gronkowski

With this showdown slate being so top-heavy with superstars such as Mahomes, Brady, Hill, Kelce, Evans, Godwin, there is not a lot of receptions and upside to be had as you go down the board. Rob Gronkowski might be that guy, as the Chiefs have struggled mightily against the tight end position all season and allowed Gronk to top 100 yards back in Week 12. Gronkowski may go under looked simply because he has struggled during the playoff run amassing just two receptions over the last three games. If there is a player that is low cost that has multi-touchdown upside, it is Gronkowski. Tight end Cameron Brate is also questionable with a back injury which could limit his playing time giving Gronkowski more upside.

Recommendation: DraftKings Captain, DraftKings Flex, FanDuel Flex,

Tom Brady

Tom Brady is an excellent flex play on this slate. He likely is not a Captain or MVP candidate, simply because if he will be somewhat popular at the position, and with no rushing upside, the receiving options should be in a better spot in Tampa Bay for a captain/MVP. Brady brings a floor and a consistency as he is likely going to throw for multiple touchdowns if this game is a shootout and close to 300 yards. In their first meeting, Brady threw for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns, and if that exact game replicates itself out, he is going to have an outstanding game, but Gronkowski had 20 DraftKings points in that game and would far exceed Brady on a cost per dollar basis. Mike Evans also had 20 points as he had just 3 receptions for 50 yards, but scored 2 touchdowns. The Buccaneers receivers are cheap in this game, and can make for a nice roster.

Recommendation: DraftKings Flex, FanDuel Flex,

Sleeper- Ronald Jones II

Ronald Jones II struggled mightily last week against the Packers rushing for just 16 yards on 10 carries. However, the Buccaneers remain committed to the running back as he is averaging 13 carries per game over his last 4 games. Jones provides a burst as a traditional running back that most other running backs in this game do not have. In terms of most rushing yards, Jones is second in terms of props behind just Leonard Fournette, and while Fournette is likely to score more points, he is significantly more expensive than Jones. Jones found a lot of success in the teams first matchup as while he carried the ball just 9 times, he did tally 66 yards on those carries. He has big play potential and could win you a contest if he can break a long run.

Recommendation: DraftKings Captain, DraftKings Flex, FanDuel Flex,

DraftKings Captain Value Rankings

Flex Value Rankings (DraftKings Prices)

FanDuel Value Rankings


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