Prize Picks Opening Night Slate

Leveraging the Prize Picks lines for maximum profit

Not everyone has legal sports betting in the state they live in. Sites like Prize Picks and Monkey Knife Fight offer an alternative by creating contests where the bets are against fantasy points scored. These contests are determined legal under the guidelines set forth by fantasy contests.

The rules are simple. Simply bet under or over against a series of "fantasy lines" and win if enough of your ticket is correct.

Here are my best bets for the Thursday opening slate featuring the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs

Game Theory: Vegas has the Chiefs winning easily at home and have set the line at 9.5 points. Kansas City returns most of their SuperBowl winning roster but will feature a rookie at running back. The Texans have a revamped team with the loss of WR DeAndre Hopkins and the additions of RB David Johnson and WR Brandin Cooks.

In game one of a revamped Texans team with minimal practice time due to the pandemic, I think we are more likely to see a ragged Houston offense on display as they work out their timing and execution. It won't help that Deshaun Watson will be pressured by a defensive line featuring All-Pro Chris Jones.

If Kansas City gets control of the game early (as I suspect they will), I envision multiple chances for PK Harrison Butker. Prize picks rewards longer field goals and his line at 9 fantasy points feels like a lock. He is my number one projected kicker this week in fantasy.

Playing from behind could help Deshaun Watson (as he is forced to sling it in garbage time), but the lofty 23 fantasy points line would require multiple scores to reach. I am betting the timing is off too much for that to happen. WR Will Fuller now inherits the lead wide receiver duties, but he will likely find the coverage a lot worse with DeAndre Hopkins off the roster. RB David Johnson can excel in any game script, but the Texans also have RB Duke Johnson who will see snaps in a negative game script where the Texans are playing from behind.

All of the lines analyzed. Lines current as of September 7th at 10:37am PT

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Player Line My Proj Value Bet
Deshaun Watson 23.0 18.6 19.1% UNDER
Will Fuller 15.0 12.2 18.7% UNDER
Harrison Butker 9.0 10.2 13.3% OVER
David Johnson 15.5 13.6 12.3% UNDER
Sammy Watkins 10.5 9.3 11.4% UNDER
Randall Cobb 9.0 8.2 8.9%
Kaimi Fairbairn 8.0 7.6 5.0%
Patrick Mahomes 25.3 24.2 4.3%
Travis Kelce 16.5 17.1 3.6%
Brandin Cooks 12.0 11.8 1.7%
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 16.9 16.7 1.2%
Tyreek Hill 17.5 17.6 0.6%