Pick-a-Player: Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, or Joe Mixon

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• Three comparable players are available.
• The draft is at a stage where these players are usually drafted, and none of their bye weeks are duplicated on your current roster.

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It's the 1.08 pick in 12-team, PPR draft. The top four running backs are off the board as are Dalvin Cook, Michael Thomas, and Derrick Henry. Would you select Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, or Joe Mixon? Or would you pass on all three?

The Results

And the winner is -- a mix (including Mixon)! See the percentages below.

Comments from the Staff

Phil Alexander

The answer here is Mixon, and I would choose him even if Henry and Thomas were still on the board.

The Bengals offense was one of the worst in the league last year, yet Mixon was still the second-leading rusher in the NFL over the second half of the season. He'll return to a barely recognizable offense that gets back A.J. Green, stud offensive tackle, Jonah Williams (who missed his entire rookie year), and added a franchise quarterback and dynamic wide receiver in the draft.

Cincinnati played at the seventh-fastest situation-neutral pace of play in their first year under head coach, Zac Taylor, and now have the offensive firepower to turn more of those plays into fantasy points. Increased efficiency and a higher touchdown expectation will launch Mixon into the top tier of running backs by season's end.

Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill are both players I would love to roster, but Rounds 5-8 is the honey pot for wide receiver value this year. I prefer building my teams around running backs early in the draft and addressing wide receiver by piling up guys like Robert Woods, Terry McLaurin, T.Y. Hilton, D.J. Chark, A.J. Green, and Brandin Cooks in the middle rounds.

Ryan Hester

Generally, I avoid players on bad offenses -- especially in the early rounds. But after looking at Hill and Adams and their respective situations, Mixon is the answer. Upon his return from injury, Hill's high watermark in targets in any individual game was eight. He also saw only five targets in two games and only 11 in the team's first two playoff games before seeing 16 in the Super Bowl. Kansas City isn't likely to be in comeback mode often this season. That, combined with the team having a plethora of alternative options, puts Hill back to a boom-or-status that doesn't provide the warm-and-fuzzies pick 1.08 should.

With Adams, he averaged just over 10 targets per game played, which is positive, but he only generated 83 yards per game. The pro-Adams case is that with a COVID-19-influenced offseason, continuity could be king (especially with quarterback-receiver duos). But Adams lacks the explosiveness I like in my WR1. Add to that the offseason drama in Green Bay and the seemingly inevitable regression (Green Bay won 13 games last year despite points for/against levels that suggest a 10-win team), and most of that team lacks appeal.

Of these three players, Mixon's range of outcomes seems the most narrow. And that predictability is a commodity -- especially in a season sure to be marked by unpredictability. Despite having Giovani Bernard on the team, Mixon had more receptions than Bernard and received 84% of the team's running back carries. He's a workhorse.

Jeff Pasquino

I will go off the board and take Travis Kelce.

He is the clear No. 1 tight end once again, on a high octane offense and probably has a higher floor than any of the players mentioned above.

Tyreek Hill is a great talent (and offers a little bonus in both long touchdown and KR/PR leagues, although he doesn't return kicks much any longer), but wide receiver is deep and Hill is more of a boom/bust type player. Mixon is on one of the worst teams, which is never a good path to success. I'm not big on the Green Bay passing game, so I'm off of Adams this year. Kelce offers the safest pick, and taking him in Round 1 affords you to focus on running back and wide receiver the next several rounds.

Chad Parsons

I have questions about all three players in the later first. I love waiting on wide receiver this year with the mid-round depth but I have more questions about the upside of Joe Mixon if pivoting to running back here. Of the three, I would take Tyreek Hill, attached to Patrick Mahomes II and a 'hold your breath every touch' type player who needs a handful of targets at most to turn into an impact performance and/or take a couple to the house.

Jason Wood

This is a tenuous spot, and I would take DeAndre Hopkins over any of this trio. If I had to pick from the list, it would be Davante Adams by a smidge over Tyreek Hill -- who are both in my Top 10 in PPR formats. Adams has Aaron Rodgers' trust and the most secure workload. Tyreek Hill has a higher upside given his explosiveness, but the Chiefs have an embarrassment of riches, including the aforementioned Travis Kelce. Adams' role as the focal point is harder to dispel. Mixon is talented, but I worry about the Bengals offense, his contract status, and wouldn't draft him before another handful of running backs are off the board.

Jeff Haseley

My pick would be Joe Mixon simply due to the scarcity of elite running backs in the draft compared to the high number of startable wide receivers. To put in layman's terms, get your high-end running backs on your roster before they run out. You can always find startable wide receivers for the next few rounds, but it's much more of a challenge to find high-producing running backs later in the draft. Secure the most difficult position to draft before the level of talent dries up.

Phil Alexander

Regarding Hopkins, when I weigh the pros and cons, I'm not as high on Hopkins as I thought I would be when he first got traded to Arizona:

Pros

• He is a Hall of Fame talent and maybe the best wide receiver of the past five years.

Cons

• Changing teams for a wide receiver is usually bad on its own in the first year.
• Changing teams in a year without a full off-season to master the playbook and develop chemistry with his young quarterback seems extra bad.
• Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald each have to be penciled in for 15-20% target shares. Kenyan Drake will command targets also.

Am I missing anything off the list of pros, is he simply exceptional enough to overcome the situation, or do I have his outlook pegged incorrectly?

Devin Knotts

Davante Adams is the guy for me at this spot. Adams is just entering his prime at 27 years old, and can largely be had at a discount due to missing four games last season.

The Packers largely laid out their plan and how comfortable they were with their offense running through Adams when they did not go out and get another wide receiver during the draft. He has 115+ reception upside which not many receivers have and to me, he is the one guy who can challenge Michael Thomas as the top wide receiver this season. If I'm taking a guy in the first round, the big thing I'm looking for is consistent production and after Adams came back from injury, he had 10+ targets in seven of the eight games.

Bob Henry

I'm definitely taking Mixon over Hill and Adams. However, I have Kenyan Drake neck-and-neck with Mixon if I'm going solely on my projections. Both Mixon and Drake are primed to have the best season of their careers in offenses that could also take a big step forward.

I could make a case for Adams, too. In a PPR format, I think the gap between Michael Thomas and Adams is not quite as significant as we think. Thomas has more weapons around him this year and if Drew Brees stays healthy then we could see (and probably should expect) some regression in targets, catches, and all of his numbers. On the flip side, Adams could benefit like Thomas did last year because the Packers did not add any significant talent around him. He could be a target machine even more than he has been the past few seasons. Adams could easily score more touchdowns than Thomas, too.

At the end of the draft clock, though, I'm going with Mixon over Drake.

Jordan McNamara

This group of players feels much less comfortable than the previous grouping, a clear sign of a tier break. Your pick here is a roster construction decision and I do not think there is a clear right answer. If you want to go quarterback early, taking Tyreek Hill to stack with Patrick Mahomes II in the second round is compelling. Hill or Davante Adams are both good options if you are going with a zero-RB approach. If I'm going early running back, I think I like Nick Chubb over Joe Mixon. Mixon has been good in his career but has yet to finish better than RB10, while Chubb finished as RB6 last season. Chubb is entering the first season with Kevin Stefanski who oversaw the Dalvin Cook 2019 breakout, so I think he has more upside than the market gives him credit for. Again, I don't think there is a clear right answer, but if you are picking in this range you should make sure to formulate a strategy in advance and make sure the pick reflects your strategy.

Andy Hicks

I'm not so sure Tyreek Hill is boom or bust. To me, he is one of the safest wide receiver choices and would be my pick in the position outlined. Sure he missed four games last year -- basically six if we count the games he was injured in. In the other 10 games, he was a monster per game and finishes behind only Michael Thomas. This after finishing fourth and first in the two years preceding. This offense looks as good as we’ve seen in recent years and the dropoff for Hill is only if he gets injured.

I would be happy with Joe Mixon here if I wanted to go with a running back, but in this slot, I’d like to see what is available at the position in rounds two and three. Mixon only finished as the ninth-ranked back last year and lacks touchdown upside. With the Bengals unlikely to bury teams with a winning lead his touches don’t have high upside and a potential holdout also clouds certainty.

Like Jason, DeAndre Hopkins would be a serious option, ahead of Davante Adams.

Andrew Davenport

This is a great question because it gets right to the heart of the issue - I absolutely loathe the 1.08 this year. I can't agree with the argument for DeAndre Hopkins, and I'm one of those who doesn't think Mixon belongs in this conversation either. The Bengals offense definitely has the look of an ascending unit, but putting a first-round grade on a back in a PPR league who might struggle to hit 35 catches for a bad team isn't the gamble I like to make 8th overall. The problem is, the guys in play here - Adams, Hill, Kelce, and Nick Chubb - all feel like I'm reaching a little to get any of them. As it's been pointed out, the middle rounds for receiver are so strong it's hard to grab Adams or Hill, and Chubb has plenty of uncertainty himself. This leaves me passing on all three. I like what Pasquino said and I think that's what I'd do with this pick - Travis Kelce. It just comes down to roster construction for me because all of these guys are worthy of being a fantasy cornerstone. I'm betting that Kelce, then a running back in the second round, sets me up for the rest of the draft nicely.

Bob Henry

Andrew, I agree. This is a tricky spot in the draft and not one that naturally provides a lot of value and a tough choice has to be made. If you're lucky, those in the four to seven spots are bearish about Dalvin Cook holding out and he falls right into your lap. I've seen it happen on several occasions in best-ball drafts. Don't look that gift horse in the mouth. Just click Cook's name. 1.08 through 1.10 all feel like convergence spots in the draft where there isn't a clear running back value, wide receivers feel like a slight reach, and Kelce or Cook become targets from different angles.

Select Comments from The Shark Pool

rockaction

I'd take Adams. Plenty of targets, no competition, and still Rodgers throwing the ball (even if his deep accuracy has deteriorated some according to stats). I love Hill, but he won't see Adams's volume, and Mixon, while great at the end of last year, strikes me as someone who finishes up just behind Adams due to the PPR nature of the format (even with him catching balls out of the backfield on checkdowns and designed plays).

Also, Aaron Jones (even though FreeBaGel loves to debunk this) is likely due for touchdown regression, so some of those might just go to Adams.

This also depends on the number of starters and scarcity. For scarcity's sake, I might pick Mixon at running back.

Ilov80s

I lean Adams but Mixon being a running back makes it a really tough choice because it could be dicey for running backs by the time you come back up in the 2nd. And honestly, Hill probably has the highest ceiling just being the top threat with Mahomes. It is a real tough call and I don't envy drafters in that spot.

Just Win Baby

Agreed, do not want that draft position, would rather be earlier or later. I would want to take Adams, but doing that likely means my first running back would be outside the Top 10 drafted. So I would reluctantly take Mixon.

rockaction

On second thought, indeed give me Mixon.

KChusker

• Mixon for positional scarcity
• Then Hill
• Then Adams

I want no part of the Packers offense if I can help it. Their fraud 13-3 record is about to get hit by the regression bus.

davearm

I want no part of the Bengals offense if I can help it. Not very good recently to begin with, and now you've got a rookie quarterback and no offseason.

KChusker

Bengals offense was already the worst it could possibly be last season, and in the second half they figured out they need to feed Mixon and he was RB5 over the last eight games

Now they get a first-round offensive lineman back and a blue-chip quarterback known to target running backs in the passing game--after the last half-season of scheming more touches for him

I'll take Mixon this season over any running back except Barkley, CMC and maybe Zeke--bit of a hot take but I have been targeting him everywhere

Packers at this point are fantasy cancer to me---both Lafleur and Rodgers--and have only a downward trajectory coming

I'll buy in on that team when I see Love look decent enough to run a team. Until then I'll take Adams below a stud running back due for volume in an ascending offense and a generational game-breaker with the future GOAT at quarterback and a HOF coach.

davearm

No, the Bengals offense was not already "the worst it could possibly be" last season. The "worst it could possibly be" would look like 2017, when they finished dead last in the NFL in total yards/game, 31st in rushing yards/game, 26th in points/game, and Mixon finished RB32 despite playing 14 games.

That is the floor, not 2019.

And when you're throwing a rookie quarterback to the wolves with zero offseason to prepare, hovering near the floor wouldn't be much of a surprise IMO. The Bengals are headed for a rough year. I'm fading Mixon hard in my drafts.

KChusker

Except Mixon was a rookie in 2017 and not even a full-time starter—completely, utterly irrelevant

Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray came in and steadily improved their teams into ascending offenses with a lot of offseason hype after their rookie years.

Burrow is better than Baker and as good as Murray and is coming in with more offensive talent than either of those guys in Boyd, A.J. Green, Mixon, and Higgins

Bengals had their rough year—now they are an ascending offense shooting up to six to seven wins this season (maybe even 8-8), if the year is played

Biabreakable

At this juncture of the draft, I think there are a lot more options that people will be considering.

According to this ADP, Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb are being selected before Joe Mixon at running back, and honestly, despite the changes at quarterback for the Chargers, Austin Ekeler was the fourth-highest scoring running back in PPR formats last year while splitting time with Gordon. From a VBD perspective, Ekeler provided 50% more VBD than Mixon did last season. I think he at least deserves consideration as well. From wide receiver, you have Julio Jones DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and others who I consider similar tier as Adams or Hill.

As people have said it is a tough spot to be drafting in, as I think the top tier of players are gone and this second tier of players lasts until Round 3.

I will vote for Hill here because he has the best quarterback and has the most upside in my view. If I prorate for missed games, I see Hill has having 80 very high-quality receptions and I think he provides the most VBD advantage of the options available, although Kelce and Kittle are other players I could make an argument for from a VBD angle.

I think Mixon is a great choice and I agree he could have his best season yet in 2020 if the supporting cast around him falls into place. He still hasn't had over 1500 combined yards yet in his career though (I think he passes this threshold in 2020) a lot of running backs are capable of doing that if healthy.

fightingillini

The 1.08 pick is a real tough spot to draft in a 12-teamer.

Taking Mixon gives you a solid running back to start, but after the Top 5 wide receivers are gone (my WR5 is Hopkins), there is tier break to the Godwin/Evans/Golladay/Cooper/Moore/ODB/Robinson tier. So this leaves me taking a second-tier running back along with a second-tier wide receiver. Don't like that.

However, taking a wide receiver leaves you wondering which running backs will be there at 2.05. Mixon, Chubb will never make it to 2.5, Jacobs likely won't, and a chance that Drake won't either. So you're looking at a Miles Sanders/Austin Ekeler /Aaron Jones at running back.

I will go with the elite wide receiver -- Adams and take the best running back left in Round 2. I would be ecstatic if Jacobs slipped to 2.5, but I can settle with Drake or Sanders.

rockaction

Why is ODB here? is this really the consensus, because if so, I disagree.

smbkrypt24

I don't think this is the consensus. I have routinely gotten OBJ in the third round in startups drafting from late position (10 or later).

Actually, in the latest one, I got Julio at 1.10 and Mixon fell to 2.03 (15th overall) for my selection. Adams went 9th and Hill fell to 18th overall. Just for reference.

Breezy H2O

Hill. That guy can lose a gear and still produce. Cautious on Adams this year. Pass on Mixon.

FreeBaGeL

Mixon for me. It's just too easy to find good wide receivers in the modern NFL to take one who isn't a record-breaking player in the 1st round.

Duckboy

These are the three I would be looking at here. I slightly lean Adams here as there isn’t much else in the Green Bay receiving corps for competition (Hill has others to fight) and PPR favors the wide receiver a bit. Standard I’d probably go Mixon and see what came back, but in PPR a decent running back should come back at 2.05.

Select Comments from Facebook

Jeremy V

Although I like Adams the best I’d have to go Mixon, as the running back drop off with my second-round pick will be too much.

Chris C

Of these three, I like Adams’ consistency the best.

Jared W

Tyreek. I'm on board with Sigmund Bloom's thoughts of team continuity this year.

James R

Terrible draft slot...Adams and hope for Drake or Jacobs in Round 2

Mark J

I'd pass and draft Josh Jacobs

Alan K

Mixon all day. The value at wide receiver in Rounds 3-6 means I’m doubling down at running back in Rounds 1-2 especially if I’m at the end of the first round.

Kevin D

Adams all day long. Has the ability to catch double-digit catches. Rodgers' No. 1 Target. Mahomes has many other options, and Cincinnati is rebuilding

Justin Y

In a PPR, I'm going with Mixon. It's easier to find undervalued wide receivers later on than running backs. And running backs are already going off the board quickly. There will be a top wide receiver when you come back around or even probably in the third.

John S

I had Mixon last year and he did so poorly the first eight weeks I was turned off by him, and the offensive line problems and rookie quarterback may mean a stacked front... Adams, I would expect double coverage all season... I'd consider Hill, but may just draft Miles Sanders or Josh Jacobs instead as I like them over Mixon, and possibly one of these guys come back in the second round.

Marc G

Did you catch the second half of the season by any chance?

John S

Marc, I did, but I'm still not sold with the bad offensive line and rookie quarterback now

Andrew F

Patrick Mahomes II just signed a half-billion-dollar contract. Give me his No. 1 receiver in Tyreek Hill. He is electric and was injured quite a bit last year. My bet is he rebounds this year, and this is a no brainer for me!

Brian F

I would definitely not take Mixon. I like both wide receivers but would take Adams. It's close but he doesn't have to fight for targets and Rodgers loves him.

Richard H

Mixon. Feel like the drop off in running back in Round 2 will be greater than the drop off in wide receiver.

Scott B

Would go Mixon there..the running back drop is too steep and tons of wide receivers are available later

Sam S

If running backs are flying, I'm going with Mixon here. This draft is tremendously deep at wide receiver.

Belvin M

I would go with Josh Jacobs, I have more confidence in him than Mixon based on a better offensive line and consistent usage by coaching staff. There will be eight picks off the board before you pick again. If at least half are running backs, then you are looking at RB11 if you go wide receiver here or WR7 or so if you go running back. The running back pool is shallow, need to get the best you can.

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