Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
The favorites went 10-4 straight up this week but were just 6-8 against the spread. Even underdogs such as plucky Dallas managed to battle it out until the end, reminding us all that sometimes taking the points is the smart play, even if it feels like you need to hold your nose while doing it. A personal record of 6-8 was a direct result of taking too many shots on big favorites. Looking forward to Week 10, however, there are plenty of good opportunities to bounce back.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
(Thursday Night) INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE (-2) (Over/Under 49)
After two straight weeks with three touchdown passes, Philip Rivers stumbled and bumbled against the Ravens to the tune of exactly zero touchdown tosses. Generally, a trip to Nashville has meant smooth sailing for the Colts; they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in the Music City and 13-4 ATS in the last 17 series meetings overall. History notwithstanding, the present looks a lot more sobering for the Colts, whose offense lacks explosiveness and could be found out.
And yet, the Titans defense is nothing to write home about either. After a blistering start to the season, the Tennessee bandwagon has gotten a lot lighter in recent weeks. Injuries have played their part, and Vegas has the home team laying just two points, a nod to their less-than-ideal team momentum. The key match-up is the Colts offense against the Titans defense, a weakness on weakness match-up that may end up in an uninspiring clench in the middle of the ring. In a match-up of such tight margins, take the points.
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