Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?
As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.
Week 5 proved to be a bounce-back in the standings for yours truly, with an 8-6 record against the spread as some big favorites were taken down. Being able to discern which teams are trendy – and are given a points spread tax as a result – can yield dividends, such as with Kansas City’s 12-point line last week. With games moving due to Covid-19, the game of musical chairs has stopped for Week 6, so let’s dive into the slate.
Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com
DENVER at NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) (Over/Under 45.5)
With a lot of uncertainty still surrounding this game, a handful of sportsbooks have released preliminary lines, making New England a strong favorite. The Patriots could have Cam Newton back, but the likelihood is that either Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer will get the nod to start. Truthfully, it may not matter who the signal-caller is, as New England should have their way with a Denver team that, even if Drew Lock returns, has its hands full.
It is worth noting that the Broncos are 7-3 as the underdog in their last 10 under Vic Fangio, but the prospect of either Lock, Brett Rypien or Jeff Driskel summoning up the necessary effort to outsmart defensive guru Bill Belichick is a daunting one. The 8.5-point line makes this a game to include in teasers, as you can get the line down to -2.5 or -1.5 in New England’s favor. The total is also appealing, as the Patriots’ ground attack was given a boost with the emergence of Damien Harris.
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