For The Win: Week 4

NFL picks against the Las Vegas lines.

Here we are again this year, back for more NFL picks. It is with great pleasure that I begin my second season writing this column. As someone who has won and lost their fair share of money on the NFL (and many other sports), this is bound to be a fun and unpredictable ride. Join me, won’t you?

As with the format in previous years, this article will help those of you who compete in confidence pools and in ranking selections, which may come in handy on those Las Vegas trips. Games are rated based on preference for both the point spread and other angles (such as totals or over/unders) with 1-3 “Stars”, which basically highlight the best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars are not preferred one way or the other, but will still be covered, discussed and a winner will be predicted for those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools.

A wild and unpredictable week of action resulted in a personal 7-8-1 record against the spread for yours truly, a feat to be avoided in the coming weeks. The lines are getting sharper, however, forcing us to make tougher choices – and perhaps, in some cases, to avoid games entirely. Week 4 throws up some similar headscratchers, but that will not be enough for us to shy away.

Note that the over/unders are taken from VegasInsider.com

(Thursday Night) DENVER (-2.5) at NY JETS (Over/Under 40)

Two teams that rank in the bottom three in points per game meet in a Thursday night match-up that, on paper at least, looks far from a barnburner. Considering the poor quality of play the Broncos and Jets have put forth over the first three weeks, in fact, a snooze fest could ensue. Jeff Driskel was wisely yanked from the starting line-up late last Sunday, a move designed to preserve him for a week with a short turnaround for preparation. While the Broncos haven’t been awful thus far, there is a stench of losing that this franchise can’t seem to get off its back.

The Jets are another team in complete freefall. If relegation existed in the NFL, they would be a prime contender – along with their neighbors, the Giants – to be jettisoned out the trap door. Sam Darnold is in a horrific situation, throwing to receivers who were not in the team’s plans not so long ago. Defensively, things have spiraled out of control as well. Vegas has the Broncos as narrow favorites, a reflection of a lack of conviction about either team’s ability to string a competent performance together. This is a stay-away game, but if you must wager on it, there would be a lean to Denver.

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