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With the fantasy football season complete and the NFL shifting firmly to playoff mode, dynasty teams shift to 2021 NFL Draft mode with rookies drafts in a few months the next critical items on the to-do list. Here is an early look at the metrics of the 2021 class across the skill positions:
*Data included reference the author's projection model, designed to improve the probability of predicting skill position prospects to produce fantasy starter seasons in the NFL*
*With the declaration deadline not until mid-January, some of the non-senior prospects mentioned here may end up returning to school*
Quarterbacks
The best-case quarterback class in 2021 is a robust one from a projection model standpoint. Rushing potential and acumen is the fast-track towards high-level fantasy production for the position. The path to strong QB1 production is at least one of these two subsets: being a diabolical passer or a strong rushing option. Ideally, a quarterback has a blend of both. The generally discussed top-four quarterbacks for 2021 are all strong rushing options in Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Zach Wilson. Lance is especially rare as a rushing prospect. He is also a work in progress as a passer, but recent examples like Josh Allen (longer-term progression) and Jalen Hurts producing well centering as a runner offer promise to a profile like Lance, especially if he garners top-10 NFL Draft pedigree. All four of the 2021 prospects mentioned also check the requisite strong Round 1 historical boxes as passers.
The biggest early metric and film notes observation to start the NFL Draft reside with Mac Jones and Kyle Trask. Both are good enough passers at the college level, but with some degree of arm strength limitations. Plus, Jones is an awkward pocket mover. Also, both are limited in their rushing potential, which goes back to the opening tenet of needing an elite passer or at least good enough rushing production. Both are confident 'no' responses for the rushing potential and the early projections are the pair are clearly behind the big four in NFL Draft position.
Running Backs
The 2017, 2018, and 2020 recent classes have set the bar sky-high for what a good running back class provides. The early view of the best case - assuming all notable underclassmen declare - is a lack of top-end depth and true bulletproof profiles like in 2020. The ideal profile is 21 years old with good enough size and strong two-way production. None of the 2021 prospects fit all the criteria like so many of the top 2020 running backs.
Travis Etienne and Najee Harris are the two big-name running backs, but both stayed for their senior seasons and will be rookies at 22.5 and 23.5 years old respectively. The good news is that neither is projected to have an athletic concern going into pre-draft testing (both 21+ mph Max Speed measured in college games). Etienne has elite two-way production and Harris, through the lens of Alabama backs, is an above-average one and with a prototypical build.
Javonte Williams has been a fast riser in 2020 and with quality scores in Athleticism, Rushing, and Receiving, and being 21.5 years old in 2021, Williams checks many of the boxes to be in the top running back conversation.
The rest of the top projected names are a grab bag of non-ideal profiles. One of the more interesting prospects is Chuba Hubbard, who was potentially one of the top names for 2020 but stayed for his senior season. Hubbard would have been 21.3 years old with everything but ideal size (207 pounds) in the model. However, Hubbard struggled through a down final season and now enters the NFL at 22.3 years old.
Kenny Gainwell has his supporters but is a rare small back in the 190-195 pound range and without elite athleticism for his size and did not play in 2020. Zamir White was an elite recruit but injuries derailed his Georgia career until 2020, finally putting together a string of healthy production. White is also a redshirt sophomore, so could return to school for 2021. Other notable names include CJ Verdell, Oregon, possessing a good but not great metric profile. Jaret Patterson (Buffalo) has produced at an elite level especially in 2020 but is undersized and a lagging overall athlete. Also, Trey Sermon has refurbished his dulled profile from his Oklahoma days, peaking late in the 2020 season with Ohio State. While more on the Day 3 landscape to start the NFL Draft process, Sermon could rise into Day 2.
Wide Receivers
While the 2021 running back group lags behind its 2020 counterpart, the wide receivers this year match, and may even surpass, last year's class in quality and depth. First off, Ja'Marr Chase is a potential top-five pick with no weaknesses in his profile. A host of other wide receivers are in the Round 1 mix with elite metric profiles like Rondale Moore and Rashod Bateman. Jaylen Waddle is recovering from injury, but a dynamic athlete in the sub-sized genre. Devonta Smith has more profile blemishes (age, good but not great age-weighted production) than ideal but has a near locked-in Round 1 feel to begin the draft process. Justyn Ross is a complete wildcard who was firmly on the Round 1 NFL Draft track in 2019 before a spine condition and surgery has left his football career, whether back at Clemson or in the NFL up in the air for now.
Tylan Wallace returned for his senior season in 2020 to erode his ideal 21.3 years old profile from 2019 but still has an elite production profile overall. Amon-Ra St. Brown is another Round 2 with upside from there early draft projection with a strong production track record. Chris Olave and Terrace Marshall Jr. are an ideal 21.2 and 21.3 years old respectively with strong production scores. Both are top-75 draft projections with riser potential during the process into the top-50.
The reservoir of deeper wide receiver names is robust as well in 2021. Dyami Brown is a strong prospect out of North Carolina, Seth Williams is a big-bodied Auburn prospect with high-level size and production. Amari Rodgers was blocked in the Clemson pipeline wide receiver program but has emerged with his running back-like thickness for a productive 2020 season. Elijah Moore (Ole Miss) is a strong combination of age (21.5) and production. Brennan Eagles is one of the youngest prospects I've tracked since 1999 at the position if he declares for the draft (20.9) with average-level production and a strong combination of size and movement. Tamorrian Terry (Florida State) may be the strongest combination of size and elite speed/movement to his game. His lone blemish is being 23.5 years old for next season. Kadarius Toney (Florida) has plenty of supporters but one of the weakest production scores of any projected-for-the-draft receivers in 2021.
Tight Ends
While 2020 saw the first tight end off the board at 43 overall (Cole Kmet), 2021 paints a far better picture with blue-chip prospect Kyle Pitts worthy of top-10 consideration. Pitts may be the best wide receiver in the class, let alone tight end, as the proverbial matchup nightmare with fluid movement for his 6'6" frame. Pitts will be a problem for defenses at the next level and possesses a 99% overall score in my projection model.
Pat Freiermuth and Brevin Jordan are the next two commonly discussed names for the top-50 or so of the draft. Jordan is ideally young (21.2) with an elite production score. More in the move tight end genre at 6'3", Jordan's athletic testing will be key to going in Round 1. Freiermuth is a classic two-way tight end as a strong blocker, but also split-out-from-the-formation receiving chops. Do not expect an elite workout from Freiermuth but even good enough will have him projected for Round 1.
The class turns into a sleeper zone, mining for undervalued profiles, beyond the top-3 names mentioned. Hunter Long (Boston College), Tony Poljan (Virginia), Trey McBride (Colorado State), Zach Davidson, and Pro Wells (TCU) are the most intriguing profiles to track for a rise to Day 2, or still viable from Day 3.
James Mitchell is a strong prospect out of Virginia Tech, rising in status with a breakout 2020, but already declared he is returning to school for 2021, his senior season.
Final Thoughts
Thanks to all the readers in 2020 (and over the years) of this feature column. If you would like to keep up with my content during the NFL Draft season, I host the Under the Helmet dynasty podcast (nearing 500 weekly episodes dating back to 2011) and produce the content at UTHDynasty.com and the associated Patreon platform. NFL Draft season is the lifeblood of dynasty leagues with a year-round approach to dynasty trading, evaluating prospects, positioning in rookie drafts, team-building in startup drafts, and valuation shifts with NFL free agency and the NFL Draft. I will close this season's New Reality series with the tag line I use on all my podcasts: Never Settle, Refuse to be Average, and Keep Building Those Dynasties.