Identifying bounce-back or breakout players for the following season is a long-standing strategy to maximizing roster value in the offseason. Here are my favorite bets for an uptick in 2021:
QUARTERBACKS
Why: Goff is floundering in the QB20s this season and is on par with his lackluster 5.6% touchdown rate from 2019. This after an electric career start in 2017-18 with 60 touchdowns combined. Despite the lull, Goff will be five years into a largely successful career with QB6, 11, and 13 finishes to his profile. Having a top-6 season, plus another top-12 finish is a strong predictor of future QB1 seasons - nearly 70% of top-6 finishers hit for another top-6 season in their career. The Rams infrastructure is sound (Sean McVay, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, a rising Cam Akers, Van Jefferson likely moving up to the WR3 role next year) and Goff is still on the early side of the peak production window for quarterbacks in his mid-20s. The 'down season from a veteran' bounce-back through optics and especially touchdown rate is one of the easiest subsets for investment.
Why: Burrow was tethered to a horrible Bengals team but one with quality skill position players (sans Joe Mixon being out for a cross-section of Burrow's starts). Top overall picks are generally overrated for fantasy purposes as the average finish is in the QB20-25 range with Cam Newton as the notable top-6 finish over the past 25 years. On a per-game basis, Burrow was slightly above that zone at QB18-20 this season. A.J. Green is a likely loss in the offseason, but Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are under contract. Joe Mixon will return and is under contract. Year 2 is a different story for No.1 overall quarterbacks. 31% post a top-6 finish and another 23% are in the top-12. Finally, Burrow is a touchdown rate regression candidate. Rookie quarterbacks are typically low in the category and Burrow at 4.9% (rate per completion) was no exception in 2020. Comparable age and touchdown rate historical peers rose by 2.9% on average the following season, which would be more than seven added touchdowns by regression alone on his partial-season tally from 2020.
RUNNING BACKS
Why: The Eagles have been one of the most disappointing offenses of 2020 compared to expectations. Carson Wentz has devolved to the bench and Sanders' lack of usage has also been quizzical. The breakout candidate for this year last posted 20+ touches in a game back in Week 3 and has one performance (Week 14) of more than 13 PPR points since Week 15. Sanders has been one of the glaring fantasy 'losers' for the Eagles offense outside of Carson Wentz. Sanders individually has been a strong performer as one of the NFL rushing leaders in yards over expectation per attempt (NFL NextGen stat). The Eagles running back group is a paltry 24th in receptions and their eight total touchdowns are sixth-fewest in the NFL. In short, there is plenty of passing game, touchdown, and usage upside for Sanders in 2021. Combine those factors with the Eagles seeing an improved Carson Wentz or having a different quarterback under center and Sanders is poised to be a post-type sleeper in the offseason. Sanders' valuation is likely in the Round 4-5 range and easily obtainable as an RB2 for initial team builds.
Why: The dynasty expectations for Edwards-Helaire (CEH) were through the roof after landing with Kansas City in the 2020 NFL Draft in Round 1. Fueled even more by Damien Williams' opt-out later in the offseason and 138-1 rushing line in Week 1 and CEH was vaulted to high-Round 1 startup status immediately. Fast-forward three months and LeVeon Bell was added (without much impact to CEH) and the rookie has posted only four more touchdowns since Week 1 and one game with more than 70 rushing yards. CEH is RB21 on the season in PPR PPG and firmly on the 'success' track historically. With a Round 1 pedigree, 21-year-old rookie season moniker, and his Year 1 performance in the top-24 (pending the closing weeks), he is highly likely to post a top-12 season (or multiple) in the coming seasons. After being boosted to Round 1 a few months ago, CEH is poised to be available beyond the top-20 of Superflex startup drafts and could even drift into the 30s.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Why: Reagor has been dragged down by the Eagles situation, even more than Miles Sanders. Reagor will have the incomplete grade from his rookie season, missing five games. The Eagles are 27th in passing yards despite being 10th in attempts. Reagor has flashed with a big play most weeks despite the low raw numbers. The Eagles are in a tough salary cap situation for 2021, pointing to DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery as potential cut candidates. The depth chart will be tough to supplement outside of the draft. Reagor is an elite metric prospect, in the 99% overall grade range, with elite production and athleticism measures. Add a Round 1 pedigree, Year 1 flashes, and a likely stalling behind the drove of rookie receivers producing more out of the gate, and Reagor has the makings of a strong arbitrage opportunity within the 2020 class in the offseason.
Gabriel Davis
Why: The Bills rookie wide receiver has performed well in Year 1 and Josh Allen has zoomed up in passing acumen for a high-flying Buffalo passing game to raise the tide for all involved. Through 14 weeks, the Bills receivers are No.1 in the NFL in receptions and yards. Stefon Diggs is a major part of the equation, but Davis has been a revelation especially with John Brown missing a chunk of the season. Davis is WR28 in PPG over the past month and has 50+ yards in five games this season and six touchdowns overall. Davis fit the criteria as the rare Day 3 receiver to consider in most rookie drafts at a rare 21.2 years old for his NFL debut and a quality combination of size, athleticism, and production elements to his metric profile. John Brown is a potential cut candidate in the offseason and an expanded opportunity is all that stands in Davis' path towards a fantasy starter season in 2021 on a more consistent basis.
TIGHT ENDS
Why: The first tight end off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft was Cole Kmet. It was dogged as a subpar class with Kmet going 43 overall, but Kmet was young (21.5 years old, a key projective marker for fantasy production) with quality size, athleticism, and production as a well-balanced prospect. The situation was murky to start with Jimmy Graham also in Chicago. Kmet has surged in recent weeks with >70% of snaps in each of the past four games, a clear shift from Graham as the unquestioned TE1 in snaps for nine straight games previously. The production has followed for Kmet, especially with 14 targets and 22.8 PPR points over the last two games, good for TE9 in PPG over the span. Kmet is on track to be the Week 1 starter in 2021 and Jimmy Graham is a cut candidate in the offseason. Considering Graham's diminished role, eroding movement, and Kmet's development, it would be surprising if Graham was back.
Why: Trautman is a similar story to Cole Kmet. Jared Cook is a slated free agent and the Saints are in a poor salary cap situation for 2021, making a veteran resigning or an acquisition a tough task. The best odds for the Week 1 starting job in New Orleans is Adam Trautman. The flashes have been sporadic for Trautman as a rookie but after a mere three catches over the first half of the season, Trautman has nine catches over the past six games, a notable uptick. Trautman was a Day 2 selection and an elite prospect profile with 85% Athleticism and 98% Production scores.
