A big part of dynasty (and fantasy football as a whole) is taking a stand whether we believe what we have seen will continue or not. This could be from week-to-week, year-to-year, or in dynasty from a 'previous-to-future' general sense. By this point of the season, taking stock of your roster and team situation is key.
DIAGNOSIS
Myfantasyleague.com is my go-to dynasty league hosting site for a number of reasons. One of which is applying in-season team management with their 'Power Rankings' statistics. In head-to-head formats it is easy to get lost in the binary 'did I win or lose' weekly outcome. The Power Ranking information also includes key data such as:
Potential Points: This is my favorite way to distribute the rookie draft position for non-playoff teams. This uses best-ball concepts to score your optimal lineup each week. Also, Potential Points provide clarity on the true strength of a team independent of their lineup decisions.
Efficiency: This shows the difference between your potential points and your actual starting lineup each week.
Max PF: Your best weekly score
Coulda Won, Woulda Lost: The games in flux due to lineup decisions where the outcome would change with a more, or less, optimized lineup.
All-Play Record: Your Win-Loss record if you had played every team in the league each week.
Each of these categories provides a second-level sense of how your team is faring within the league. Potential Points and All-Play are the most global data points. Deep teams of talent have more difficult lineup decisions, so their potential points can be higher and can see a lower efficiency mark as a result.
Teams with a strong win-loss record and a low all-play mark point to a fortunate schedule. T same thing applies with a low ranking in potential points (or high efficiency) can point to a team being 'maxed out' even pushing all the right buttons weekly.
With more than half of the fantasy regular season in the rearview mirror, I like to check in with team direction. A strong record with low Power Ranking metrics (or a lack of depth for the upcoming bye weeks plus injuries) can point to regressing to the pack. On the flip side, A slow start but strong secondary metrics (and returning players from injury) point to a rebound coming.
Example Scenarios
One of my dynasty teams is sitting at 2-6, a full two games out of the final playoff spot with five regular-season games to play. However, the Power Rankings data tell a more promising story. My All-Play is 0.534. This means due to factors like lineup decisions and scheduling, I am underperforming by 2.2 wins. By All-Play, my record *should* be 4.2 wins against 3.8 losses in a computer-simulated world.
I am also within 40 points of the final playoff teams in scoring for the season and have scored the fourth-most points in the league. Roster-wise, I have Chase Edmonds with a spot start opportunity as an in-flux to my lineup in Week 9 specifically and have been without Joe Mixon in recent weeks and just got a healthy Jalen Reagor back into the mix.
Schedule-wise, I am facing three of the bottom five teams in the league over the next three games. Meanwhile, the most notable team I am chasing faces two average teams and one of the best franchises in the league over the same three-week stretch.
The summary is this is a glaring example to stick with the plan and do not become an overt 'seller' in the dynasty market shifting to 2021 just yet. The Week 11 deadline is two more data points away. If I catch up by at least one game over this stretch, then it is game on towards pushing for the postseason only a game out and (hopefully) catching up some in the points tiebreaker. If I go 1-1 and the other team is 2-0, then the door is nearly shut, and selling a few 2020-centric players for picks or 2021 shots is prudent being 2-3 games out with three games to play.
My other glaring example in the opposite direction is a franchise in a 16-team Superflex and 2TE format. Every team has holes and bye weeks and injuries are an in-season killer due to lack of depth overall. The lineups are still on the deeper side and finding a startable player from the waiver wire (like I did with Robert Tonyan Jr and hopefully now with Ross Dwelley) can be a season-saving addition.
I sit at 7-1, tied for first place in the league. However, the bridge is not quite that stable. I am No.8 in the league in total points and have a 0.533 All-Play record. This is nearly identical to the 2-6 team I posted above, yet have FIVE more wins on my head-to-head tally. I have overachieved by 2.8 wins compared to the All-Play record, by far the most of any of my 40 dynasty leagues. My typical record would be 4.2 wins versus 3.8 losses.
Considering my total points and All-Play record, I am a fringe playoff team and an average one in this league. Also, my roster has plenty of flaws. It is a 16-team league, but still, it speaks to the thin margin for error if a player misses games compared to typical 12-team formats. It is Superflex and starting multiple quarterbacks is a huge boost. I was cruising along with Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick until Newton's production stalled and Fitzpatrick is not even Miami's starter anymore. I have a few backup quarterbacks, but none have been boosted to the starting role as of now. If Newton were to miss time at this critical zone with just one NFL starter on my roster, my team would struggle outside of making a (likely) expensive trade for one.
On a slightly positive note, I have been without Nick Chubb for a few weeks and could get him back in Week 10/11 for the stretch run as I have been starting Giovani Bernard and/or Latavius Murray in his place. Also, a deep format like this one has minimal wiggle room for projected starters underperforming. A.J. Green was one of my locked-in starters for 2020 with only Marcus Johnson and Tre'Quan Smith as bench pivots most weeks. Fortunately, I am strong at tight end in the 2TE format to potentially make a trade if needed, or just have rare depth at the position with Evan Engram, Jimmy Graham, Logan Thomas, Robert Tonyan Jr, Ross Dwelley, and Cole Kmet most notably.
The mindset with this team is different as 7-1 is a paper tiger-type record. I have been overachieving all year. Getting a bye week is huge but without it is an uphill climb unless facing a team or two with similar or more depth-injury limitations in those critical weeks. Also, all five games left on my schedule are against teams currently 5-3 or better. I would not be surprised if I go 1-4 during this stretch and am closer to the final playoff spot than a bye week.
Critical Questions
Summarizing some of the points above, when analyzing your dynasty teams, look beyond the current W-L record. Check out the remaining, or next 2-3, games on your schedule. Are they notably strong or weak teams? Is your All-Play record far different than your W-L record?
Do you have players injured and not back for a few weeks (or not at all)? On the flip side, are you getting back someone like Christian McCaffrey or Michael Thomas or Nick Chubb soon?
Week 11 is a common dynasty trade deadline but is still two matchup data points away from now. If 4-4 and in the thick of the race and playing two of your playoff-centric teams next, this will be a telling stretch to your chances. Even at 3-5 or 2-6, a two-week win streak can change your tune of being a seller at the deadline. On the flip side, a key loss this week or next could be the realistic end to your playoff probabilities and shift your team to a deadline seller.
