The New Reality No.152: Quarterback Touchdown Regression Candidates

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football

Touchdowns are NFL and fantasy football game-changers. While volume is a precursor to scoring, a touchdown shifts head-to-head matchups with a single play. Touchdown regression is the premise of betting on the big-picture probability of a player regressing towards the NFL average and/or their individual career average. Looking at the first six weeks of the season, here are the regression candidates at quarterback:

*Touchdown and interception rates calculated by dividing touchdowns by completed passes, interceptions by incompletions*

Quarterbacks

Positive Regression Candidates

Cam Newton

Of current starting quarterbacks with a decent volume of attempts, Newton has the second-lowest TD rate in the NFL at 2.4%. A strong regression number is anything below 5%. Just one quarterback finished below 5% in 2019 (Joe Flacco, 3.5%) as a point of comparison. The weapons are lacking in New England with minimal tight end presence and N'Keal Harry struggling to progression in Year 2. Newton's career TD rate during qualifying seasons is 7.9% and his lowest season is 6.8%. Expect Newton to rise over the rest of the season. Newton is also on the INT rate regression list at 10.8% thus far, above the 9.5% threshold and more than 2% higher than any other season of his career.

Daniel Jones

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