The New Reality No.151: Timing the Market, NFL Passing Games

Navigating the ever-changing landscape of dynasty fantasy football

With five weeks complete for dynasty teams, the sample size is growing enough to establish strength of schedule trends to improve the dynasty trade market timing, and lineup usage, for optimal value. Here is a look at the most glaring schedule splits:

Passing Games

Moving Up

Chargers

The Chargers have been one of the most pressured passing games in the NFL thus far in 2020. The schedule softens considerably for rookie Justin Herbert, who is near the top of the league in touchdown rate, yards-per-attempt, and despite the pressure rate sports only a modest sack rate. Mike Williams back (and healthy) would be a shot in the arm impact for their vertical passing game, which has already seen contribution from Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson in spots. The passing schedule turns rosy over the next month with three choice matchups and the biggest strength of schedule upgrade, and not particularly close, in the NFL.

Williams is the most interesting dynasty trade asset to explore from either side. The pro argument is a former top-10 pick with a boost in quarterback play of late and coming off a strong game in Week 5. The con side is Williams is essentially on the Davante Parker or bust track as he has been outside the top-40 every season to-date and has just three games finishing the top-20 of the position dating back to the start of 2018. The prudent play is to at least explore the sell market on Williams in the coming weeks and specifically this week. The competition for targets is high with Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry and (later this season) Austin Ekeler returning. Going 2nd to 1st in rookie picks by using Williams is possible this week, or adding a flip player to Williams to get a 1st outright. An earlier 2nd and one of the better injury-away running backs is another option.

Also worth mentioning is Justin Herbert, who is off to a strong start. This is less timely than Williams in exploring the market, but know initial spikes in dynasty quarterback value can often be followed by sophomore slumps or regression. It is tough sledding to approach the top of the quarterback board for long and shifting to a more durable profile in the macro is a prudent pivot. Getting a 1st in return for Herbert in a 1QB format is possible. For superflex, Herbert is the perfect pivot to said stable profiles. Adding a 2nd to Herbert as an initial offer for Dak Prescott is in play. Shifting to Deshaun Watson straight up is within reach or adding a secondary piece. Both have sustained track records to eliminate the false positive risk of Herbert.

Texans

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