The management of the final 5-10 roster spots of a dynasty league, depending on the depth of league and format, is the critical element for a dynasty GM during the regular season. This season is no exception with a tremendous amount of turnover potential within what I have titled 'Tier 3' players, those not likely or expected to be on your roster 12 months from now. This is the churn aspect of your roster where short-term flip opportunities present itself, spot starters, injury-away plays, and the bucket of droppable options to address new additions from the waiver wire.
The Mindset
First, the proper mindset for these roster spots is key. Know around half of your roster today will not be there a year from now. This could be dropping them to the waiver wire or trading them away. But most of the churn will be the back-half of players. Embrace the variance of their roster lifeline for you. What is their outlook over the next few weeks - not in 2021 and beyond? Your ability to find lightning in a bottle with a spot starter for part of the season or a flip player for future picks or a better long-term player is enhanced through these Tier 3 players filtering through your roster ecosystem.
The Exceptions
Above, the lack of allegiance was discussed as the overarching mindset for the final roster spots in dynasty. However, here are the exceptions. First, generally Round 1-2 rookie picks will be at least Tier 2 or higher dynasty roster considerations and on more than a 12-month timeline for roster retention. A couple of examples of knowing this investment when making the selection would be someone like Jordan Love in a superflex format or AJ Dillon. Both may not see many opportunities in 2020 but have enough upside in the future they were valued highly in those formats for investment in the first two rounds and the requisite patience for the development of a future opportunity.
Another exception is the "my guy" moniker. This is dynasty and GMs are welcome to make their team their own with their guys. Caution should be used when applying this tag and mindset on the roster spots, however. Like any bad habit, this one roster spot a my-guy exception can easily spread into 3-4-5 spots if used too liberally. For example, having one my guy on a 25-26 man roster is within reason. You will be patient with their development even if their short-term outlook or rookie pick investment is not congruent to holding on face value. However, two or three of those at the moderate roster depth can be an optimization killer for waiver wire opportunities, even through a two-week sample of a season. When approaching 30, and especially beyond, roster spots, two or three can be managed. Continue the pattern from there if surging to 35 and even 40+ roster spots.
Ideally, the "my guy" moniker is applied to a position that makes some priority sense in the format. For example, aligning an exception with a position of importance like quarterback or tight end in a premium format, or running back, in general, would aid the use of said roster spot.
The Value of Time
Next, consider the value of time for each roster spot. While many dynasty players are uncuttable by the general waiver wire baseline on a weekly basis, there are certainly examples where the available waiver options at specific points are more valuable than even notable names universally on dynasty rosters. One key improvement over the years personally for my dynasty rosters has been being aware of the importance of being plugged into every waiver wire run and the possibilities of improving your Tier 2/3 player bucket for the mere cost of a potential dropped player and the renewable resource of the annual waiver wire budget. Sticking too long with your bench players over the waiver wire is a hidden value loss for dynasty teams.
Cutting the Cord
Generally, with a redraft mindset, I have penned Cutting the Cord here at Footballguys in recent years during the fantasy season. The focus is on pitching players to consider cutting from your team. Much of fantasy content is centered around who to target, pick up, and start on a weekly basis. However, these pickups and targets come at a cost. A player or subset of players are falling out of favor to align with these 'risers' or producers going forward and rosters need to cut (or trade) players for the influx of additions. Yes, it's a negative view of the fantasy population, but the dirty work of being a dynasty GM is clearing space for the waiver wire regularly through cutting players.
Here is a working list I put together this week specifically focused on cutting the cord, creating roster space, and being more efficient with roster spots. Also, some may have enough name value (or intrinsic value) to shop (trade) before you drop.
Too Many Quarterbacks
It can be easy to get sucked into too many quarterbacks in a start-1QB format. However, especially having more than two in a moderate (or shallow) roster size format can be a killer to roster optimization. Work on paring down to two quarterbacks (or even one if 20-man or more shallow formats like FFPC). It may not happen immediately with an outright cut of your QB3+ per se, but make this a goal by midseason. Target teams who sustained an injury to their quarterback room or a sticky bye week situation for trading.
Running Back Roulette
I love rostering running backs as much as any dynasty GM out there, trust me. However, there is a functional limit at any point in time with the requisite amount of other positions needed, plus new running backs bubbling up on the waiver wire with promising opportunities weekly. Here are some 'tough cut' names to consider heading into Week 3:
Matt Breida: Myles Gaskin is the starter in Miami and the backfield is not a hotbed for fantasy upside anyway. Breida could be a cut in sub-30 man rosters.
Peyton Barber: Touchdowns in Week 1, but clearly RB3 in Week 2. Question the upside of the player and the situation until further notice.
Bryce Love: Day 3 pedigree, coming off an injury, plus is RB4 for Washington at present.
Rex Burkhead: Nice Week 2 uptick, but due to James White being inactive. Cam Newton siphons much of the positional upside with his own rushing involvement.
Brian Hill, Ito Smith: The wide receivers and tight end are taking much of Atlanta's production and if Todd Gurley were out, this looks like a messy (and low-upside) committee between Hill and Smith.
Mike Boone: RB3 on the depth chart plus Minnesota's run game looks less like an optimal upside setting than 2019.
Justice Hill: A late Round 2 or early Round 3 typical rookie pick a year ago, but buried on Baltimore depth chart as RB4 and has not shown much to-date.
Frank Gore: Low upside even as the starter and LeVeon Bell will be back.
Kerryon Johnson: More of a sub-25 man roster possibility here but RB3 on the depth chart and questionable upside even if D'Andre Swift or Adrian Peterson were to miss time.
C.J. Prosise: I may be the biggest Prosise fan in the free dynasty world, but the moment Duke Johnson Jr is trending toward being active (could be Week 3), Prosise is a cut in most dynasty depths, returning to RB3 status in Houston.
Wide Receivers
Alshon Jeffery: Has lost a step or two and is still working back from injury. The Eagles could be Jalen Reagor-less until midseason, which presents an opportunity for Jeffery target-wise, but in say sub-25 man rosters, Jeffery's upside at a less optimal position (wide receiver) makes his roster spot far from a lock.
Mecole Hardman: The What if? upside here is pronounced, but Hardman has shown no Year 2 development either in production or offensive involvement through two weeks. He is another more shallow format cut consideration.
Andy Isabella: The Year 2 receiver is heavily blocked in Arizona and it would take multiple injuries to project upside worth holding in most depths for now.
Danny Amendola: The classic 'streamer in a pinch' wide receiver type, but valueless in the dynasty trade market. If you do not need him in the next 1-2 weeks, churn for a higher upside option and reassess later if needed.
John Ross: Buried on the Bengals depth chart and probably needs a change of scenery if a true reclamation projection in the future.
The Tight End Roster Squeeze
Greg Olsen: In a committee with Will Dissly, who will likely rise in snaps as the season progresses. Minimal involvement through two weeks.
Jack Doyle: Can the Colts put Mo Alie-Cox back in the bottle after Week 2? Doyle is a volume-based option with minimal big-play ability. Question the high usage returning for Doyle, if healthy.
Kyle Rudolph: In a committee with Irv Smith and a middling passing game in Minnesota.
Ian Thomas: Chris Manhertz is playing a ton and Thomas has shown zero development from previous flashes on a Carolina offense with a deep wide receiver group.
Jace Sternberger: Was the TE4 on the Packers rotation in Week 1 and only was higher in the pecking order Week 2 due to Josiah Deguara being out. Outside of deeper 2TE formats, Sternberger is a serious cut consideration.
Rob Gronkowski: If taking away the name cache, Gronkowski would be an easy cut across the board this week. He has looked slow and been a non-factor through two weeks on a team loaded with wide receiver and running back talent. Gronkowski is blocking a decent amount and the prospect of even a touchdown-centric fantasy-viable stat line this season appears like a longer shot.
Dawson Knox: Three quality wide receivers in Buffalo squeeze Knox from any big upside.
Gerald Everett: Tyler Higbee is the clear starter for the Rams. There are settings in dynasty formats to roster injury-away tight ends, but most are not those settings. Roster Everett accordingly.
Tyler Eifert: James O'Shaughnessy is playing a ton and the Jacksonville wide receivers are better than a year ago. Eifert was a streamer prospect to begin the season but trending towards a cut for even greener pastures within the tight end position alone.
